1. #2876
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    ^There's a more recentNIDA Poll here, http://nidapoll.nida.ac.th/files/NIDA_Poll20110615.pdf

    Seems they're doing weekly polls. The Numbers haven't changed much. One of the big difference between the NIDA and the Suan Dusit polls is the number of people polled. NIDA uses a very small sample.
    The Above Post May Contain Strong Language, Flashing Lights, or Violent Scenes.

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    ^
    Thanks - same story on that constituency/party list comparison i.e. near-identical %'s of "undecideds". On the sample size (1,338 in the example you give), as I've mentioned before 1,000-ish is regarded by nearly all major polling agencies worldwide as the "gold standard" for generalised (e.g. eligible voters) sampling - if the selection methodology is proper. Seeing Suan Dusit using a sample of over 100,000 really begs the question of how much faith they have in their methodology.....
    .

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    Bangkok Post : Yingluck hopes Dems constructive

    Yingluck Shinawatra, the No 1 Pheu Thai party list candidate, said on Sunday she hoped the Democrat Party's major rally at the Ratchaprasong intersection on June 23 would be constructive.

    Speaking before leaving for Phitsanulok for campaigning, Ms Yingluck said the Democrat Party's switch of the rally site, originally planned for the open ground in front of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration office, to the Ratchaprasong intersection was a change of campaigning tactics.

    The Ratchaprasong intersection was a major rally site of the red-shirt supporters of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) which ended on May 19 last year in a military crackdown.

    She only hoped the speeches to be made by core members of the Democrat Party would be constructive.

    Ms Yingluck said she did not think the Democrat rally would affect Pheu Thai's popularity.

    The people will make a final say on July 3 which party they want to work for them, she said.

    The Democrats, led by party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, went on a campaign trail in Samut Prakan on Sunday morning.

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    ^
    Very smart play from YS - don't outright criticise it let alone condemn it. Just express hope that the speech content will be "constructive"..... I imagine others will disagree, but that looks to me like a good route to looking like you're holding the moral high ground compared to what's billed for the Dem show.

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    Bangkok Post : Suwat calls for all to avoid violence

    Suwat Liptapanlop, a core leader of the Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party (CPPP), on Sunday called on all concerned to avoid violence.

    Speaking at a conference at his residence in Ratchawithee area, Mr Suwat expressed concern over the political situation which has become tense because of fiercer competitions between parties taking part in the July 3 election.

    If the situation turns violent, leading of losses of flesh and blood, the election results would not be recognised and there would be undesirable political confrontations, he said.

    "If the situation goes well without violence and a government with a compromising stance is formed after the election, the country's problems will be solved.

    "If there is violence, conflicts and misunderstandings would escalate. We need to maintain a good campaigning atmosphere so that we can see political cooperation after the election," Mr Suwat said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bkk Post
    "If there is violence, conflicts and misunderstandings would escalate. We need to maintain a good campaigning atmosphere so that we can see political cooperation after the election," Mr Suwat said.
    Amen to that - even if the prospects of it seem slim.

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    From the blog world - a shorter photo/text piece from Richard Barrow. Worth keeping an eye on his site for more of these.....


    Red Shirts Protest as Abhisit Tours Samut Prakan | Thai Blogs

    June 19, 2011
    By Richard Barrow | Posted in Samut Prakan



    This morning, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva continued on his election campaign trail by visiting Samut Prakan. Large areas in the province have been declared “Red Zones” and as a result of a history of shootings, Samut Prakan has already been declared “Thailand’s most likely scene of poll-related violence”. Which is why the police today weren’t taking any chances.



    In Samrong there were police stationed along the road at regular intervals. Down the side roads there was at least one policeman guarding every intersection, big or small. They were also guarding the pedestrian bridges. In addition, there were police standing next to any group that might cause trouble. Plain clothes policeman were also driving ahead on motorcycles videoing the crowd. Abhisit’s own bodyguards were often seen scanning the crowds and rooftops.



    There weren’t really that many protesters, but the ones that came out were quickly surrounded by security personnel. Most of their banners were about the 91 deaths during the protests last year. In this picture taken at Samrong, the police were whisking this guy away from the route that Abhisit was taking. He wasn’t arrested though the policeman here was telling me to stop taking pictures.



    This one-legged Red Shirt wasn’t moved away but he was quickly surrounded by security personnel. Abhisit passed here a few minutes later and didn’t even see him. Abhisit has come out in denouncing the bullying tactics of the Red Shirts. Personally I think people have a right to speak their mind. Isn’t that what a democracy is all about?As long as they are doing it in an orderly manner surely they should be allowed to show their banners to Abhisit?



    Although there were Red Shirts out protesting Abhisit’s visit to Samut Prakan, there was no reported violence and certainly no eggs being thrown from what I saw. On the contrary, by far the majority of people gave Abhisit a warm welcome. I was also taking pictures during Yingluck’s visit to Paknam last week. I would say that Abhisit had just as many supporters here as Yingluck, if not more. I will post pictures of Abhisit’s visit to Samut Prakan soon on Thai-Blogs.com.

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    ^
    "I would say that Abhisit had just as many supporters here as Yingluck, if not more"

    Considering that this is a strong Red Shirt area, I doubt that.

    Perhaps Barrow was still suffering the euphoria of riding in Korn's cavalcade.

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    Bangkok Post : Suwat rules out PM from small party

    Suwat rules out PM from small partyThe next prime minister after the July 3 election is likely to be from one of the two major political parties, Suwat Liptapanlop said on Sunday.

    Mr Suwat, a founder of the Chart Pattana Puea Pandin Party (CPPP), ruled out the possibility for the prime minister to be from a smaller party.

    Speaking at his Ratchawithee residence, Mr Suwat said the chance for a third party to clinch the prime minister's post is slim because the two major parties - Pheu Thai and Democrats - were far ahead of medium and small parties in terms of popularity.

    However, Mr Suwat said the medium and small parties would still play an important role to strengthen the government and make it more acceptable.
    He believed the new government would be formed in not later than one month after the election.

    "A party which has 251 votes has the right to form the government first. But if the votes it has is fewer than one half of the total House seats, it would have to look for other parties to join," Mr Suwat said.

    Whoever is the next prime minister must be compromising and able to get along with others in order to mend existing rifts. The next prime minister can be either a man or a woman who is well-versed in economy and acceptable to the international community.

    Asked about the possibility of granting amnesty for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Mr Suwat said the matter must be considered in parliament in a legislative process.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveCM
    "A party which has 251 votes has the right to form the government first. But if the votes it has is fewer than one half of the total House seats, it would have to look for other parties to join," Mr Suwat said.
    Talk about stating the obvious...I for one hope it doesn't come to that!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteveCM
    Asked about the possibility of granting amnesty for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Mr Suwat said the matter must be considered in parliament in a legislative process.
    They had to get that old chestnut in, another Bangkok Post reporter asking the question againnnnnnnnn, ahhh... The Post they're so even handed and unbiased.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DrB0b View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers
    Yes, that caught my eye too. That drop is even more stunning than the huge lead the poll gives the PT over the Democrats. Also the sheer size of that poll with over 100.000 people polled and that it was nationwide. Maybe part of that undecided swing could be from different wording of the questions?
    AFAIK there is no stunning drop. The polls showing a large group of undecideds are polls on the Constituency Vote. This poll is a Party List poll.

    This is the poll. There are no questions are such, other than "from the party list, who will you vote for?".

    The option immediately after No 11 is "Undecided". The footnote says that undecideds also include those who refuse to give a preference.

    <chart snipped>
    Likely explanation:


    From Twitter today:

    bangkokpundit bangkokpundit

    4. Undecideds r very low at less than 3%, but Suan Dusit say pollsters asked the undecided who were they likely to vote for (i.e leaners)

    1 hour ago

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveCM
    4. Undecideds r very low at less than 3%, but Suan Dusit say pollsters asked the undecided who were they likely to vote for (i.e leaners)
    And their answer was...they didn't know!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Takeovers View Post
    But that leaves the question open why do so many really do not tell their plans. I too do not believe so many are still undecided.
    Maybe they're having trouble choosing between a govt backed by a murderous military and one run by a human rights abuser of the worst kind, with a penchant for death squads who kill thouseands.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buksida
    Maybe they're having trouble choosing between a govt backed by a murderous military and one run by a human rights abuser of the worst kind, with a penchant for death squads who kill thouseands.
    As I'm not connected with drugs in any shape or form, I'd prefer to take my chances with the human rights abuser!

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by SteveCM
    4. Undecideds r very low at less than 3%, but Suan Dusit say pollsters asked the undecided who were they likely to vote for (i.e leaners)
    And their answer was...they didn't know!
    More like: don't give a rat's arse, indifferent, etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveCM
    Likely explanation: From Twitter today: bangkokpundit bangkokpundit 4.

    Undecideds r very low at less than 3%, but Suan Dusit say pollsters asked the undecided who were they likely to vote for (i.e leaners)
    That would be very very bad news for the Democrats as they counted on the undecideds who according to this poll lean heavily towards PT.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Buksida
    Maybe they're having trouble choosing between a govt backed by a murderous military and one run by a human rights abuser of the worst kind, with a penchant for death squads who kill thouseands.
    As I'm not connected with drugs in any shape or form, I'd prefer to take my chances with the human rights abuser!
    Neither, allegedly were a large number of the victims. A lot of old scores and business conflicts were supposedly settled.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rural Surin
    More like: don't give a rat's arse, indifferent, etc.
    Actually no, according to this they were asked which party they lean to and overwhelmingly said PT.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbil
    Neither, allegedly were a large number of the victims. A lot of old scores and business conflicts were supposedly settled.....
    Obviously can't be confirmed / proved one way or the other but forever using Thaksin's name as the only reason for all sins here is very tedious.

    The elite / hiso overthrew an elected government and replaced it with what?

    So many fingers in so many pies now nothing gets done unless of course every man and his dogs greed is satisfied.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbil
    Neither, allegedly were a large number of the victims. A lot of old scores and business conflicts were supposedly settled.....
    Obviously can't be confirmed / proved one way or the other but forever using Thaksin's name as the only reason for all sins here is very tedious.

    The elite / hiso overthrew an elected government and replaced it with what?

    So many fingers in so many pies now nothing gets done unless of course every man and his dogs greed is satisfied.
    The greatest fantasy that most might be willing to absorb are the notions and possibilities of real change.
    Not gonna happen. Yet, the discussions persist in this hopeful fashion. Much of the punditry have their own personal agenda and political identity to promote, less caring about the future of Thailand and it's population. Comical, at best.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rural Surin
    The greatest fantasy that most might be willing to absorb are the notions and possibilities of real change.
    Not gonna happen. Yet, the discussions persist in this hopeful fashion. Much of the punditry have their own personal agenda and political identity to promote, less caring about the future of Thailand and it's population. Comical, at best.
    RS. Have you stopped your medication? You're talking like a wanker again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbil View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Buksida
    Maybe they're having trouble choosing between a govt backed by a murderous military and one run by a human rights abuser of the worst kind, with a penchant for death squads who kill thouseands.
    As I'm not connected with drugs in any shape or form, I'd prefer to take my chances with the human rights abuser!
    Neither, allegedly were a large number of the victims. A lot of old scores and business conflicts were supposedly settled.....
    Best we don't get bogged down in the details, after all there's polls to be analyzed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gerbil View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Buksida
    Maybe they're having trouble choosing between a govt backed by a murderous military and one run by a human rights abuser of the worst kind, with a penchant for death squads who kill thouseands.
    As I'm not connected with drugs in any shape or form, I'd prefer to take my chances with the human rights abuser!
    Neither, allegedly were a large number of the victims. A lot of old scores and business conflicts were supposedly settled.....
    Best we don't get bogged down in the details, after all there's polls to be analyzed.

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    It ain't rebellin' when you're buying what they're sellin'

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    Thaksin-Bashing Bid Backfires - Voice TV

    The Puea Thai Party filed on Sunday a defamatory lawsuit against persons employed by one of the Democrat Party's election candidates.

    Wichan Meanchainand, head of a Puea Thai campaign team for Bangkok, lodged the libel charges at Lad Prow police station against those who had allegedly distributed CDs with content that purportedly constitutes a smearing campaign against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the opposition party.

    The accused were allegedly working for the Democrat man, namely Nat Bantattan, contesting Jul 3's election in a Bang Kapi constituency. He is a son of former deputy prime minister Banyat Bantattan.

    Two taxi motorcyclists, found to have handed out the Thaksin-bashing CDs to constituents in Bang Kapi and Lad Krabang areas of the capital, said they had been hired by those employed at Mr Nat's office. They said they had been given 1,500 baht per day for the distribution of the mudslinging material.

    The taxi motorcyclists said they had received the CDs in front of the Democrat candidate's office and had been promised an additional 15,000 baht pay after the election has been finished.

    Police found 1,500 CDs of that kind at the department house in Klong Chan area rented by one of the motorcyclists, identified as Somchai Puttaraksa.

    Mr Wichan said he will submit on Monday a petition to the Election Commission pertaining to the alleged smearing campaign against the ex-premier and his party.

    Produced by Voice TV

    by VoiceNews
    19 มิถุนายน 2554 เวลา 18:05 น.

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