Thread: Thai elections 2011-Thai PM sets stage for tough election

Originally Posted by DrB0b

Yingluck, Abhisit, and the Common Touch | Robert Amsterdam Thailand

dude, quite pathetic from you, this is like quoting the Nation or TAN network, you should be ashamed.

^ Ah, just for some...those whose name starts with a T.

Bangkok Post : Mystery of Thaksin's first son-in-law

Mystery of Thaksin's first son-in-law

• Published: 18/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

After ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra told foreign media that he hoped to return to Thailand in December for the wedding of his daughter Pinthongta, tongues are wagging about who his future son-in-law might be.

The young man is entering the picture as the Pheu Thai Party is busy with its election campaign and promising voters that they will push for amnesty for Thaksin and bring him home a free man.


Pinthongta: Hoping for father’s return

Ms Pinthongta was recently appointed as executive director of SC Asset, a Shinawatra family-founded property firm, following Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra's resignation from the post to enter politics and run for the post of prime minister.

Ms Pinthongta was ranked as the richest person in Thailand in terms of stockholdings in 2004 and 2005, with a combined share value of more than 18 billion baht, according to Money & Banking Magazine.

Although she has been out of the top 10 rankings for several years, she is still very wealthy.

Her fiance is known to be a young architect at SC Asset who was recently promoted to an executive-level position within the company.

Paethongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's other daughter, wrote on her Facebook page months ago that his sister will get married only after their parents return to Thailand.

Thaksin's would-be son-in-law is one of three children whose father of Chinese-descent, identified only as Worawit, owns a garment business.

His family's office is in the Pratunam area near Platinum shopping centre. Ms Pinthongta has been frequently seen shopping in the area along with her friends.

A source close to the Ms Pinthongta's suitor said that when he studied at Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration at Chulalongkorn University he got to know, through friends, Ms Pinthongta who was studying at Kasetsart University.

Their relationship started then and developed for more than two years. They both later studied in England.

"Khunying Potjaman [na Pombejra] is very satisfied with her future son-in-law. He is polite and quiet," a source said, in reference to the young bride-to-be's mother.

Sources said that Ms Pinthongta's fiance flew to Dubai to meet Thaksin, whose approval he easily won, the sources said. The lovebirds' parents have already finalised the arrangement of marriage property.

Bangkok Post : Will 'Cobra' politicians poison the party for Pheu Thai?

INPrint

Will 'Cobra' politicians poison the party for Pheu Thai?

• Published: 18/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Maj Gen Sanan Kachornprasart, who coined the the term "Cobra" in politics, believes that a new version of the snake could emerge this year when the time comes to form a new government after the July 3 general election, notes Post Today.


The late Samak Sundaravej referred to turncoat politicians who put their weight behind Chuan Leekpai as prime minister after the political crisis of 1997 as Cobras. SAROT MEKSOPHAWANNAKUL

Pheu Thai's de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra is trying hard to prevent such an occurrence which would hinder his youngest sister Yingluck from becoming Thailand's first female prime minister.

The "Cobra" moniker was used by the late prime minister Samak Sundaravej who was then the leader of Prachakorn Thai Party to describe the rebel party's MPs as a metaphor in Aesop's fable of a cobra which was rescued from being frozen to death by a kind farmer and then bit his benefactor to death after it recovered its strength.

At the time, Mr Samak was the symbol of Prachakorn Thai which he founded after being expelled from the Democrat party. Due to his oratory skills, Mr Samak was able to draw the crowds and the votes for his candidates even though they were relatively unknown.

Thailand's financial crisis in 1997 forced then prime minister Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, leader of the New Aspiration Party, to resign to show responsibility. Leaders of New Aspiration and other coalition government parties resolved to support Gen Chatichai Choonhavan, leader of Chart Pattana Party, to become the next prime minister. Their combined number of MPs was 197 while the opposition Democrats, together with other parties, could muster only 196 MPs, one less than the former coalition government. According to the constitution, when a prime minister resigns, a new prime minister will be selected by MPs in the House of Representatives, who will form a government.

Maj Gen Sanan, then secretary-general of the Democrat Party, was able to persuade 12 MPs of a Prachakorn Thai Party faction led by Vatana Asavahame (who is now believed to be in Cambodia to escape a jail term for taking bribes) to switch sides and voted for Chuan Leekpai as the next premier. The vote was 208-185.

Samak was furious, labelling the rebel MPs as "Cobras", creating the first cobra incident in Thai politics. He called a party meeting and expelled the rebel MPs, believing that by doing so they would lose their MP status. However, the cobra MPs appealed to the Constitution Court which ruled that MPs have the right to cast their votes in parliament independently against a party resolution and they could retain their MP status if other political parties accepted them. Nearly all of the cobra MPs joined the Democrat Party after the court's ruling. Mr Chuan was then criticised as coming to power through undemocratic means.

The second Cobra episode occurred in late 2008 when the People Power Party, which won a general election in December 2007, was dissolved by the Constitution Court for breaking the law. All the party's executives including then prime minister Somchai Wongsawat were barred from politics for five years. This necessitated electing a new prime minister in the House of Representatives again. PPP MPs then joined Pheu Thai, established as a spare party in case PPP lost the dissolution case in court. However, not all PPP MPs joined the new party. Newin Chidchob, who was banned from politics for five years for being a Thai Rak Thai executive, persuaded 23 MPs to join another newly established party, Bhumjaithai. The Democrat Party together with Bhumjaithai and other former coalition parties with PPP such as Chart Thai Pattana supported Abhisit Vejjajiva as the new PM. Pheu Thai, seeing it could not win after the cobra incident, decided to support Puea Pandin's acting leader and former police chief Pol Gen Pracha Promnok as a PM candidate, hoping to convince all Puea Paendin MPs and other party MPs to switch sides again and not support Mr Abhisit who was believed to be backed by the military. However, Mr Abhisit won convincingly 235-198 with three abstentions.

As for the possibility of a third Cobra incident occurring after the July 3 election, if Maj Gen Sanan's prediction is discounted then Thaksin's worries cannot be ignored. Thaksin believes Pheu Thai will come first but may face obstacles including a Cobra incident in which "non-system" power could exert pressure on some Pheu Thai MPs to vote for Mr Abhisit as PM. For this reason, Thaksin required all Pheu Thai candidates, both constituency and party list, to submit signed resignation letters before being nominated to run for the general election under the Pheu Thai banner. If Cobra MPs decide to vote for Mr Abhisit, enticed by either cash or promised ministerial posts, Pheu Thai party can produce resignation letters that make the Cobra votes invalid as they are no longer MPs, having already resigned.

Post Today speculates that a Cobra incident could only happen if Pheu Thai wins, but not convincingly or with no more than 250 seats in the House. In such a case, the Democrat Party may compete to form a coalition government with other smaller parties with the support of some Pheu Thai Cobras.

However, it is also possible that Pheu Thai could also employ a Cobra strategy by inducing MPs from the Democrats and other parties to defect to Pheu Thai by offering cash and/or ministerial positions if Pheu Thai does not win convincingly or cannot muster the magic 250 MPs for Ms Yingluck to become the first female prime minister of Thailand.

The possibility of Cobras within Pheu Thai is quite evident. Before Mr Abhisit dissolved the House, it was widely rumoured that some Pheu Thai MPs such as Mingkwan Saengsuwan, who was disappointed at not being anointed by Thaksin, and then Pracharaj Party leader Sanoh Thienthong were discussing the possibility of forming a new party with Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh who had resigned from Pheu Thai, citing unease at red shirt domination of the party and that their leaders were against the monarchy.

However, when Mr Abhisit dissolved the House, both Mr Mingkwan and Mr Sanoh decided to stay with Pheu Thai.

The same could be said about former New Aspiration party MPs who were absorbed by Thai Rak Thai.

They were reported on the verge of resigning from Pheu Thai to follow their boss Gen Chavalit, but decided at the last minute to stay put.

A third faction in Pheu Thai that could become Cobras is a group of 10 MPs who were reportedly ready to join Bhumjaithai. But again they decided at the last minute to stay put as they considered Pheu Thai more popular in Isan than Bhumjaithai.

About another possibility of Cobra MPs defecting to Pheu Thai, Post Today notes that it is possible that a Bhumjaithai faction led by Somsak Thepsuthin, who controls about 10 MPs, is a good candidate as Mr Somsak still has good ties with the Shinawatra group even though he defected to Bhumjaithai earlier. If offered an attractive ministerial post, it is possible he will switch camps again.

For a Cobra incident to happen if Pheu Thai wins, a "non-system" power must get involved. However, if Pheu Thai wins convincingly, the potential Cobra MPs will not dare defy the popular mandate, even at the urging of the non-system power. Post Today notes that the first and second Cobra incidents did not happen immediately after the general election. So if Pheu Thai wins convincingly, even if the party does not pass the magic number of 250, it is unlikely a Cobra incident will happen. Even at the height of the military's power after November 2006, the army could not engineer a Cobra event immediately when PPP won the general election convincingly against the Democrats but did not earn enough seats to form a single-party government. PPP needed other parties to form a stable coalition government. But, Thaksin is still shy after having tasted the Cobra's poison earlier. This is why he requires all Pheu Thai candidates to sign resignation letters and that he is trying every means possible to drum up support for Pheu Thai in the election so the party can pass the magic mark of 250 MPs, which will shut out the possibility of a new Cobra incident.

Election campaign bills may top B39bn

The July 3 general election is expected to see 39 billion baht spent by all political parties and the contest in the Northeast will get the largest piece of the pie at 11 billion baht, followed by the North, and Bangkok metropolis, predicts Kasikorn Bank's Research Centre.The research centre reports that the election is seeing intense political campaigning by all political parties, more than any other previous election, and it is likely that after the July 3 result is announced, defeated candidates will file complaints with the Election Commission in great number to void the results in their constituencies, alleging irregularities committed by the winners.

The stakes are very high for both camps to try to win the largest number of MPs in order to be able to form the next government.

Election spending is expected to total about 39 billion baht, compared to 21 billion baht in the 2007 election. This year all parties are spending more and really started campaigning before the House was dissolved.

Another factor that may contribute to higher costs this election is that the party list MPs are now nationwide, not divided into zones as was the case with the previous election following a constitution amendment. Nationwide party list MPs necessitates intense campaigning throughout the country for votes.

The research centre predicts that the Isan region which has the largest population and the largest number of constituent MPs than any region will turn over about 11 billion baht, followed by the North at 6.5 billion baht and the Bangkok metropolis at 6.3 billion baht. The money is not evenly spread even in the same region. A province that features intense rivalry will see more money being spent. The money will be used for print ads, vehicles-for-hire, broadcasting equipment, tents and stages, flower shops and distributing political leaflets.

Apart from legitimate election money channels, some money is said to be distributed to local canvassers through non-system networks such as an underground lotto, direct sales, and football betting rings to buy votes, concludes Thai Rath.

Bangkok Post : Army to bus soldiers to polls

Army to bus soldiers to polls

• Published: 18/06/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

The army has insisted that its plan to transport soldiers and their families to polling stations on election day is not illegal.

Col Sirichan Ngathong, the army's deputy spokeswoman, said it was normal to encourage soldiers and their families to go to the polls and buses will be arranged for their use, particularly for those living in remote areas.

Even though such a move is unprecedented, it is intended to support the general election and the army has not told its personnel to vote for any particular candidates, Col Sirichan said.

She also denied claims the army and the Internal Security Operations Office had asked the Election Commission for the names of canvassers working for Pheu Thai Party election candidates in Samut Sakhon, one of the provinces on the police's election watch list.

She said the army and the Isoc was not responsible for monitoring canvassers of any political parties.

Meanwhile, army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha dismissed suggestions that he often sounded emotional when talking about the general election. Gen Prayuth said he had been careful when making comments on the election and politics.

On Tuesday, the army chief appeared on television and called on the electorate to turn out in force for the July 3 general election and vote "good people" into parliament to protect the monarchy and change the country for the better.

A source close to Gen Prayuth said that in the future the army chief will avoid giving interviews on controversial political issues.

Supreme Commander Songkitti Jaggabatara reiterated that the armed forces has realised the scope of their duty and will maintain neutrality in the general election.

Other Bangkok Post updates

Sonthi offers to boost lives of Muslims
18/06/2011 : Matubhum Party leader Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin has vowed to bring an end to the southern unrest within one year if his party is asked to join the new government.


Democrats rely on party-list candidates for seats in Isan
18/06/2011 : The Democrat party realises that the odds are against it in the Northeast. Still, the party has set a lofty goal for itself and believes it has a fighting chance by highlighting its party-list candidates instead of constituency ones.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Ah, just for some...those whose name starts with a T.

I doubt you'll ever get over this Toxinphobia of yours. There are many victims of injustice (overwhelmingly red), and there are many miscreants/ criminals- of all stripes and colors. Wherever you might put T on the miscreant- victim scale, he is just one of them at the end of the day. He is a bargaining chip in a bigger game that will not be able to be settled/ reconciliated by the standard Judicial means, because firstly a considerable portion of Thailands State sector would end up in jail as a result- paralysing the country again, and/or resulting in yet another coup, and secondly because the Thai 'judiciary', is hopelessly compromised and biased. It does stick in the craw a bit that those braying loudest about "Justice" in Thailand- when it comes to T, that is , were instrumental or complicit in the utter degradation of the judicial system we have witnessed since the coup (Thaksin was bad enough). Those old double standards again.

If your obsession with just one man paralyses your ability to even look at the big picture and the best way for Thailand to return to some sort of normality and move forward, well then clearly you present no solutions, only obstacles. Not that 'You' or 'I' matter SD, but this is the current story of the Democrat/ establishment cabal. They are paralysed, wrongfooted, and their attempts at reconciliation have been nothing more than a sick joke. Even hardcore Democrat supporters rarely argue the Abhisit administration has been anything but a failure- they pin the blame on others, instead.

The reason that a number of Democrat voters will likely switch to PT or another party in the coming election is nothing to do with them supporting Thaksin all of a sudden- it is because the Abhisit administration has been a disengenous, inept failure, and it's allies (more like bully boys) in the establishment have utterly lost control of the discourse. Som nam na.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Thaksin's would-be son-in-law is one of three children whose father of Chinese-descent

Well, you will rarely see a sinoThai junior Oligarch marrying 'out', will you. Very rare.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

For a Cobra incident to happen if Pheu Thai wins, a "non-system" power must get involved.

If this happens, clearly the establishment has not learned it's lesson and Thailand will be plunged strait back into chaos. Numbers wise the people have the most to lose, but financially, well we know the answer to that. It may well make Black May look like a picnic, and it may well herald some revolutionary changes for Thailand- perhaps for the worse (hello Burma), perhaps for the better. Logic tells me that pure self interest means the establishment would not be that mind numbingly stoopid. Unfortunately observation and experience tells me that, in Thailand, they might well. We'll see.

PM says planned political rally by Democrats at Ratchaprasong on June 23

[MCOT Breaking News - 18 June 2011]

PM says planned political rally by Democrats at Ratchaprasong on June 23 not aimed to provoke but to tell truth

^



cartoonstock.com

Originally Posted by sabang

I doubt you'll ever get over this Toxinphobia of yours.

what about your toxin amnesia ?

you are quite the apologist for him, aren't you ?

Through coup followed by ineptitude and blatant judicial fixing, Thaksin has become lionised as a symbol of double standards and injustice in the eyes of many, thats all. Ultimately he is just a part of the greater game- frik sake, he is not the country of Thailand. Get over him, and you might overcome your paralysis.

I've had to censor the article below, of course. The original is on the link below however the link has been blocked by MiniTrue.

The Latest from Ji

by thaipoliticalprisoners

The Thai election is a referendum on the Butchers of Rajprasong
Giles Ji Ungpakorn

The political situation in Thailand today does not bode well for free and fair elections on 3rd July. This point cannot be stressed enough. It is very hard for democratic elections to take place when the country is being ruled by non-democratic politicians like Abhisit Vejjajiva, who were installed by the military after a judicial coup in late 2008. Previously the military had staged its own coup to overthrow a democratically elected government in 2006. What is more, those in power ordered the deliberate shooting of unarmed pro-democracy demonstrators last year. Up to 90 people died, mainly at the hands of specially trained snipers.

In Thailand today there is no freedom of expression and freedom to access information. The present military-backed government is using draconian censorship of the internet and community media and it controls all mainstream media outlets. It also uses the lèse majesté and computer crimes laws to jail those who express views contrary to the Government and the military.

So what is amazing is that the opposition Peua Thai Party, closely allied to the pro-democracy Red Shirts, is leading in the opinion polls. Will they be allowed to form a government if they win the most seats? Will the military and the conservative elites fix the election outcome? These are big questions on the minds of most Thais.

Fear of a Peua Thai victory has energised the head of the army, Prayut Junocha, into making an anti-Peua Thai speech on the two main TV channels owned by the military. He has invoked the spectra of an anti-monarchy movement in a desperate attempt to convince people not to vote for Peua Thai. But it isn’t working.

<XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX! >

In the run up to these elections, the military, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) and the Electoral Commission, with support from the Democrat Party Government, are taking further steps to fix this election. It will not be anything so crude as just stuffing ballot boxes in all constituencies, however. It will be structural fraud.

The military and DSI have accused Red Shirt leaders of <XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!> . The DSI has said that it can charge people with this law for merely using “body language” like clapping or smiling when someone else makes a speech. The Electoral Commission has also suggested that any political party which mentions <XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX! XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!> , can be banned and dissolved. This has created the conditions where the rule can be selectively used against the Peua Thai Party.

The election is a high risk strategy. The elites are extremely worried by the outcome of the election, but also desperately need to gain legitimacy by actually winning for once. Only the fascist PAD want elections scrapped altogether.

Disgracefully, this PAD sentiment is echoed by one key Election Commissioner!
Previous to this, the conservative elites had changed the election rules and the structures of power to favour their side in many different ways:

1. “Normalising” military intervention by staging the 2006 coup, rewriting the Constitution and appointing pro-military Senators.

2. Using draconian censorship and military and Government control of the mainstream media in order to try to sway public opinion.

3. Appointing conservative <XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX!> to the Election Commission and the National Human Rights Commission. The Election Commission can disqualify Red Shirt politicians after the election under weak pretexts if necessary. This could significantly cut Peua Thai’s possible majority.

4. Using the biased courts to dissolve political parties.

5. Suggesting that the political party with most “party list” seats, excluding constituency seats, should have the right to form a Government or arguing that the party with most seats does not have the automatic right to try to form a government.

6. Increasing the use of the lèse majesté and computer crimes laws against any opposition and using of lethal violence against demonstrators, designed to cause fear and demoralisation among Red Shirts.

7. Using threats and bribes to urge corrupt politicians to side with the Democrat Party.

This election is a clear and straight contest between those who favour brutal dictatorship and those who favour democracy.

Despite the persistence all parties handing out cash to the electors, vote buying will not be an issue because people are clear about what is at stake.

The election isn’t about Taksin, either, although most Red Shirts are very favourable towards him because of his pro-poor policies. It is the military, the fascist PAD and the Democrat Party want to make the election about Taksin, but only the Thai and some foreign media fall for this trick.

The military and the Democrats also want this election to be about <XXXXXXXXXX!> This may blow up in their faces. Will people interpret a high vote for Peua Thai as an indication of <XXXXXXXXXX!
XXXXXXXXXX! ?

Many media channels still talk about “clashes” between the army and the Red Shirts last year. This term is used to describe the deliberate use of snipers and tanks against unarmed pro-democracy demonstrators. Similar terms are not used by the same media when describing the Syrian crack-down.

Such media also talk about “Taksin’s corruption and abuse of power”, while ignoring the blatant abuse of power by the military and the Democrat Party and the corruption of the military and certain Democrat politicians. Military spending has sky-rocketed after the coup and the military installed Abhisit Government. That is corruption on a grand scale. “Taksin’s corruption” is a convenient short-hand handle for lazy reporters to stick on Taksin.

Taksin may have been corrupt, although the military have only managed to convict him of one single offence of allowing his wife to buy land off the state while he was Prime Minister. The land was actually sold at market rates. However Taksin was responsible for human rights abuses in the war on drugs and in the south. But this election is not a referendum on Taksin. It is a referendum on the Butchers of Rajprasong: the military and the Democrat Party who ordered the killings last year.

It is important to bear all this in mind when news about the election emerges

^ A rare note of optimism among all the doom-saying hand-wringing one sees so much of. And, yes, I'm well aware that the article finishes with

Originally Posted by SteveCM

If it continues, whereby elections are held regularly with results that count and voters become paramount with elected representatives increasingly answerable to them, this trend of campaigning competitively for what citizens and voters want, can go a long way in bolstering Thailand's democratic institutions in the very long run.

I've yet to see anyone describe a credible magic wand or "Drink Me" potion alternative that's likely to produce the near-overnight "fix" that many seem to think is being somehow "missed" in what's currently going on and inching/stumbling forward.

From Twitter today:

TAN_Network TAN News Network

Abhisit campaigns in Petchaboon wearing hillstribe costume

58 minutes ago


.........

Something tells me that's going to be one for the album.....

Originally Posted by sabang

Thaksin has become lionised as a symbol of double standards and injustice in the eyes of many,

yes if you are desperate and retarded, he is definitely a lion

Originally Posted by sabang

Get over him, and you might overcome your paralysis.

we wish him to go away, but he keeps coming back, so how are we supposed to "get over him" when he is responsible for all the shit currently happening ? if he had gone away as "promised" then maybe we could focus on the army and the ruling elite double standard.

You want us to forget about Thaksin ? let's get rid of him first, and then we can all forget about him and focus on the next political progress

Originally Posted by SteveCM

PM says planned political rally by Democrats at Ratchaprasong on June 23

[MCOT Breaking News - 18 June 2011]

PM says planned political rally by Democrats at Ratchaprasong on June 23 not aimed to provoke but to tell truth

Democrat Party says provoking 'Red Shirt' is not plan for rally at Ratchaprasong area



BANGKOK, June 18 -- The Democrat Party is planning to hold a major election campaign at Bangkok's Ratchaprasong intersection on June 23 while the party's leaders said they would explain the facts to the public on involved incidents.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, leader of the Democrat Party, told journalists that his party would hold a major political rally for the July 3 general election at Ratchaprasong intersection, Bangkok's prime business area, next Thursday and would inform people attending the rally about the bloody violence which took place on May 19, 2010 around the area and ways his party would adopt in creating reconciliation among Thais.

Mr Abhisit said his party's upcoming campaign at Ratchaprasong intersection is "not meant to provoke" the Red Shirt movement as he has always been attacked by the group in the past and he has, therefore, decided to speak the truth over the matter during the campaign.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, secretary-general of the Democrat Party, said it is necessary to inform people attending the upcoming rally that the government has been accused by the UDD for being responsible for the deaths of 91 people during last year's unrest.

Mr Suthep said the explanation would help correct the public's misunderstanding towards the government.

Mr Suthep said he would be one of the speakers on that day and that he is not afraid of ongoing threats against his party as his party was always being tarnished.

"I'm studying whether it's against the law if both audio and video (of the unrest) are shown while campaigning," Mr Suthep added.

(MCOT online news)

Originally Posted by MCOT

"I'm studying whether it's against the law if both audio and video (of the unrest) are shown while campaigning," Mr Suthep added.

That sounds like Suthep is gearing up for a re-run of his CRES "presentations".

Originally Posted by MCOT online news

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, secretary-general of the Democrat Party, said it is necessary to inform people attending the upcoming rally that the government has been accused by the UDD for being responsible for the deaths of 91 people during last year's unrest.

doubt it is necessary to inform people that the government stands accused !!

From the blog world.....


Exclusive: Pheu Thai are getting ready to call foul

By Andrew Spooner
Jun 18, 2011

This is the second part of an interview I conducted with Thailand’s incumbent Finance Minister, Korn Chatikavanij last week at the Thai Ministry of Finance in Bangkok.

In this we focus on questions of policy and the key areas and differences between the Democrat and Pheu Thai platforms. Korn had some particularly strong words to say about PT’s rice price guarantee scheme and what he intends to do if Abhisit resigns. At the end of the interview his brief response to my question on Pheu Thai’s candidate for Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, is revealing in that he seemed loathe to either criticise her or admit her qualities.

We kicked off with a question, suggested by fellow Asian Correspondent blogger, Dan Waites, about The Democrat’s education policies.

Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij. Pic: AP.

A recent Reuters article stated – “The country spent the equivalent of 4 percent of GDP on education in 2009, above Singapore’s 3.1 percent, according to the Swiss-based Institute of Management Development (IMD), but Singapore ranks 13th in education performance and Thailand 47th.” Why is Thailand’s spending on education not feeding through to improvements in terms of outcomes, and how will the Democrats change that?

First of all our main effort in this term has been in making sure that every child is able to go to school which is why we have focused on the free education for the first 15years. That means all through your high-school basically. Obviously we would like to able to focus at the same time on quality but our view is that an effort can be made on quality but the first thing is that you should make sure that the poorer families do not feel that sending their kids to school is costing them. So once we’ve got that done the next issue is to focus your spending on raising quality which is, I think, altogether more challenging. But you can’t just simply throw money at it. We are in the first year, entering the second year, of the ten year plan put forth by the Prime Minister [Abhisit] and the Ministry of Education, and all that is pretty much focused on increasing quality of education. But I agree and I didn’t read that Reuters article and if they are saying this is the single biggest challenge to the country I don’t think anyone is going to disagree with that.

At this point I wanted to give you the opportunity to state what you think are your key arguments and policies for this election.

Sure. There are several basic premises looking strategically at what is good for the country in the longer term. One, the higher food prices which, globally, is something I think will stay with us. Likewise higher fuel costs is something that is not going to go away. The emergence of Asia as the economic power house of the world is, I think, pretty much given for the next several decades. And there’s a subplot to that of ASEAN getting together, which is an important milestone.

What that economic development of Asia means, essentially, is an increasing percentage of middle class people, urbanisation, with people moving away from rural areas, and the consumption pattern that goes with that shift. Thailand stands to potentially benefit greatly from these trends. Our core competence, which the Democrat Party identifies and wants to focus our main economic policies towards getting the most out of, is, first of all, the food industry, which means increasing productivity for agriculture through investment in irrigation. We’ve got a 4 year plan for the next term to increase irrigation by about 4.5million rai and providing incentives for a greater level of investments in food processing industry such as making financing available and tax privileges to attract investment in that area.

On the services side the key competitive advantage we have is tourism. With greater urbanisation and greater income levels people in Asia are going to want to be travelling more. The pattern of our tourists has already changed. The biggest growth has been Indians, Russians, Chinese and away from Europeans with their weaker currency. In fact, we’ve got record tourist numbers simply because it’s actually easier for the new rich in the emerging markets because we’re closer to them. There’s a greater appeal in many respects. So we want to continue to develop Thailand as the key destination in Asia. We are assigning 10billion Baht a year to, primarily, protect and refurbish our main tourist sites. I think, prior to this, most of the tourism budget was used for marketing and we want to redirect that to making sure our tourist destinations are of a standard that will continue to attract.

This is actually linked to the third programme for us which plays into the overall themes that I’ve mentioned which is to turn Thailand into the ASEAN gateway. Strategically no-one is better located than Thailand between India and China and right in the middle of ASEAN. Specifically what this means is that we’ll be investing into the Laem Chabang port and turning that into a harbour city with high-speed rail links to Bangkok and logistically links, road and rail, out, to the west, to the Tawai port in Burma. Our private sector is playing a big role in that development and that [Tawai] will be our main western seaport. Laem Chabang will be our gateway to the rest of ASEAN.

Given all that there are two key differences between our policy and our opposition [Pheu Thai] relating to all of what I’ve just spoken about. One, how we look after farmers is the key. This is probably the single biggest debate that’s going on at the moment and is winning us votes in the Northeast of Thailand in particular. That is that we pledge we will continue with our income guarantee scheme. Pheu Thai are saying they’re going to scrap it and go back to rice mortgages which basically sets a price at which the government will buy rice from farmers at almost double the current market price. It’s undoable. Buying the rice itself will cost half a trillion Baht with an immediate lose of 200billion Baht. It’s just not doable. I also can’t imagine what will happen when every grain of rice in Thailand is in the hands of the government.

Where will they keep it? What happens to the market? What happens to urban consumers of rice when they’re having to pay double the market price for their standard fare? Farmers don’t like because the last time a rice pledging scheme of this kind was used most of the benefits went to middlemen who buy rice cheaply from farmers and then pledge it at a higher price to the government. There were all these news reports that because of the polls that middlemen were stocking up on cheap rice from farmers already looking to sell at a higher price to a future Pheu Thai government. So this is a big debate as to which rice policy to help farmers is a better one.

The second big difference is that Pheu Thai want to build an industrial zone in the south through a land bridge. We’ve done our study and we want to keep the south as a heritage area. The locals don’t want this zone and the long term interests of the country is to preserve the south as one of the planet’s prime tourist destinations. We don’t want to have oil tankers coming in and out anywhere along that coast.

Even without potential accidents the impact that would have on our tourism sector, short and long term, would be too significant. Which is why we’re focusing on the ASEAN gateway via Laem Chabang linking with Tawai which can then be further linked in the future along an east-west corridor all the way to Da Nang in Vietnam. We don’t think that Pheu Thai’s land bridge plan is practical and we don’t think, at the end of the day, they can achieve it in the south. And, if they did, the potential impact could be very negative forever.

So, anyway, this is what we are trying do. With tourism we think we can increase tourism income from 600billion Baht a year to about 1trillion largely by increasing the amount of spend per head from 35,000 Baht per tourist to something closer to 50,000. Significant investment in rail transportation in particular, both urban and linking the region together. All of these are basically our main aims.

I wanted to ask you the same question I asked you last time about your future. You previously said there’d be no way you’d try to unseat your friend and colleague, Abhisit, as leader of the Democrat Party. But there are certainly noises that if the Democrats don’t form the next government or achieve a required number of seats Abhisit will resign. Would you see yourself standing for the Democrat Party leadership in those circumstances

I think the most specific thing Abhisit has said on that is that if we were to win fewer MPs he would resign.

And would you seek to replace him?

Would I compete for it you mean? Because we are not like Pheu Thai. No one man is going to decide who runs the party.

But would you run for that position?

To be honest with you I try not to think about it. Not least because I am quite certain that after this election we will end up with more MPs than we have today. Quite certain.

The polls don’t reflect that though, do they?

Not true. The polls are merely reflecting that we will win fewer seats than Pheu Thai. Doesn’t actually mean we won’t beat our last tally.

Do you think Pheu Thai can win a majority?

An absolute majority? No.

The front cover of Matichon the other day said Pheu Thai could win 270 MPs.

But Matichon, as you should know by now, is a Pheu Thai newspaper. I mean it is almost like a party broadsheet. So, no, I don’t think it will happen. Pheu Thai are trying to strategically suggest those kind of numbers because they believe they will benefit from that kind of expectation. It helps them build momentum, especially in the rural areas, and they’ve done very well on that. They are also getting ready to call foul when the real result doesn’t reflect the fake polls.

Any thoughts on Yingluck?

She’s quite good-looking.

Originally Posted by SteveCM

PM says planned political rally by Democrats at Ratchaprasong on June 23 not aimed to provoke but to tell truth

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Originally Posted by MCOT

"I'm studying whether it's against the law if both audio and video (of the unrest) are shown while campaigning," Mr Suthep added.

That sounds like Suthep is gearing up for a re-run of his CRES "presentations".

They are trying to provoke a riot. Yet another attempt to provide reasons for dissolutions and red cards after the election.