Thread: Why Obama will Win

Originally Posted by Norton

They are bussing in loads of homeless people and they can register and vote on the spot, one guy even admitted he was from Chicago, they don't even have to prove who they are. They were interviewing people who were witnessing this in ohio (Freeper)

If this true why dont they throw votes in the garbage

Originally Posted by AntRobertson

Originally Posted by sabang

How can Obama possibly not win?

It is inconceivable.

Because he's black and has a Muslim name that sounds suspicously like "Osama".

One alone's probably fatal to his chances.

One can only hope, eh?

Is John McCain Doomed To Lose To Barack Obama?


(US News) Of course, it's not over 'til it's over, but is this a sign it might be nearly over? Check this Associated Press filing from today:

"Obama hammered McCain's economic record during a rally in Michigan, a state struggling with the country's highest unemployment rate. The Illinois senator's speech came several hours before knowledgeable Republican officials said McCain's campaign has given up trying to win Michigan and is shifting resources from there to other states."

Then there's electoral-vote.com's calculation that shows Obama at 338 in the Electoral College and McCain at 185. I've seen Obama slightly above 300 on electoral-vote.com before. But just a week or two ago, McCain was ahead in Electoral College votes, and I've not seen the tally this far skewed in Obama's favor before.

What could be McCain's game-changer during the next four weeks? It's not likely to be tonight's vice presidential debate, given the contestants. A sudden turnaround in the economy? Also dubious, given that Goldman Sachs is forecasting no growth this quarter or in the first quarter of '09. A slam-dunk victory in one of the next two presidential debates? Again, less likely than the boost he might have gotten had he bested Obama in the first debate. Palin dropping off the ticket? Boy, would he anger the conservative base if he took that turn in the road. An October surprise? By my calculations, it would take nothing short of Russia invading yet another former satellite nation or an unimaginable terrorist strike. Neither of those things is anything anyone should hope for.

Is John McCain Doomed To Lose To Barack Obama?, By Bonnie Erbe - CBS News

As the article says, it ain't over til it's over- but on those numbers, McCain has got to pull a mighty big rabbit out of the hat to stand a meaningful chance.

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

Why BO will win?
Voter fraud up the ass in Ohio...

A judge denied the Ohio GOP's plea to separate votes cast before the election by same day applicant/voters. So they can be more easily verified. Court says not necessary. So, everybody in Ohio can vote, and Democrats are making sure they do.


“

• Ohio bars, homeless shelters mined by Democrats for votes

• Get-out-the-vote efforts target foreclosed homeowners

• Children having trouble filling in voter apps.

”
Here's an update:
They are bussing in loads of homeless people and they can register and vote on the spot, one guy even admitted he was from Chicago, they don't even have to prove who they are. They were interviewing people who were witnessing this in ohio (Freeper)

This is a quote from the first link you posted:

Ohio bars, homeless shelters mined by Democrats for votes



By Stephen Majors • The Associated Press • September 29, 2008
Read Comments(7) • Recommend • Print • Email • Type: A A • Click-2-Listen

COLUMBUS - Democrat Barack Obama's presidential campaign blitzed bars, and advocates for the homeless have lined up vans to ferry potential voters from shelters.



The prize could be thousands of traditionally elusive voters in hard-fought Ohio who would have the chance to register and vote on the same day - if the courts don't intervene.

One-stop voting, scheduled for Tuesday through Oct. 6, would be especially convenient for those Democratic-leaning voters who have had trouble getting to the polls.

I am confused - could you tell me what is wrong with allowing all people, homeless or not, to vote?

^ No fixed address.
People register and vote the same day. ID? Thought you needed something like a driver's licence with your address on it, but apparently not. The voter registration sends cards out to these folks' addresses for confirmation and surprise, no voter by the name of Mighty Moe at that address. When the registration figures it out, the votes are already gonzo into the system with no way of retrieving them. I posted on this, which is what ACORN was caught for in Washington State. Ohio's Dem secretary of state is pulling political strings for BO.

^So you accept that there is nothing wrong with homeless people voting per se?

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

Assuming there is no conflict with this thread:

https://teakdoor.com/us-domestic-issu...hread-usa.html

Bush's last throw of the dice?

Remember the McCain attempted withdrawel from the first presidential debate? Was it a trial baloon?

Let's just say, for example....that McCain wins these following states, hypothetically.

But....Some of these McCain states in the model below are toss-ups and some are now "leaning" and "strong" for Obama:

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I believe you are right but I think Obama has more like 250 electoral votes rather than the 273 shown on your map. Still all he needs is one big state and McCain needs nearly all of them to win.

Originally Posted by Norton

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I believe you are right but I think Obama has more like 250 electoral votes rather than the 273 shown on your map. Still all he needs is one big state and McCain needs nearly all of them to win.

There are many electoral models out there. Some of them are interactive, meaning you can choose the states to manipulat the electoral vote total.

I think the electoral map above is the most conservative so far. I also believe that at least the CNN polling is trying to make this race look closer than it really is by over-stating the undecideds, IMO.

If McCain loses one of the following states, he'll lose, IMO:

Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida.

I'd still like to know the basics, like his pedigree and where he was born, just to clarify his basic qualifications for the Presidency.

Anyone expect to know before November?

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I suppose if your polling data held any acuity it would be John Kerry seeking re-election right now.

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Originally Posted by Milkman

I am calling this election, over.

I suppose if your polling data held any acuity it would be John Kerry seeking re-election right now.

The polling data on Kerry in 2004 was exit polling data.

And you're icon?

My comments are based on a multitude of polls. In key states. And, McCain is spending more money and time in state that should be "his" basically.

Here's a brief snippet.

....McCain is in as bad or worse shape in other crucial states. He is on course to lose Iowa and New Mexico, both barely won by President Bush four years ago.

And McCain and the Republican National Committee this week began pouring money into Indiana and North Carolina, reliably Republican states where Obama has made strong advances and polls indicate the candidates are roughly tied.

McCain is slipping further behind not only in Michigan but also in four other states that went Democratic four years ago, but which he hoped to pull into the GOP column this year.

But the Obama surge, coinciding over the past 10 days with the Wall Street crisis and the debate over a federal bailout, has left McCain on the ropes in eight states — with a combined 101 electoral votes — that Bush carried four years ago.

By contrast, McCain does not lead in any state that Sen. John Kerry captured in 2004. Bush beat Kerry by 35 electoral votes, 286 to 251

Dante Scala, professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. "The fact that states like Indiana and Missouri are still on the table spells trouble for McCain."

McCain also has less room to maneuver because of finances. He cannot spend more than the $84.1 million in public funds he accepted after being nominated a month ago, although the national GOP is augmenting his spending with so-called independent expenditures on ads in key states.

Link: Nation & World | Campaigns redirect in battleground states | Seattle Times Newspaper

This article also notes that McCain can come back. Yes, he can, but it will be difficult.

How do ya like them apples?

Originally Posted by Milkman

How do ya like them apples?

I reckon the Seattle Times needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
And the Palin effect hasn't had time to play in the polls yet.
It's way too early to call it.
It's way too close for comfort.

^
have a look here instead then.

wonderful site based on scientific analysis rather than political bias.

it's game over earl.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Originally Posted by Milkman

How do ya like them apples?

I reckon the Seattle Times needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
And the Palin effect hasn't had time to play in the polls yet.
It's way too early to call it.
It's way too close for comfort.

Mr Earl, the Seattle Times got its information from a variety of polls, political scientists, and analysis of now - and in comparison with the 2004 election.

This momentum has already begun to shift significantly.

Yes, McCain can come back, but it won't be easy. He's changing strategy, and is going to go hard with a new round of TV ads.

At this stage in the election with 30 days to go, I don't think the ads, nor 2 more debates will mean much.

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

it's game over earl.

Righto!

Time to go jump off the balcony.

The Republican National Committee (RNC) is now spending time, effort, and money in Indiana and Missouri.

This....is telling.

Brothers going to work it out !

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

it's game over earl.

Righto!

Time to go jump off the balcony.

Fried chicken and watermelon on the menu 7 days a week at the WH?

...what a thought

Anyone know what odds the bookmakers in Vegas are laying out for the election?

Betfair: Dems in front with 75% chance, from 56% 3 weeks ago, which doesn't reconcile with their rider that it ain't plain sailing.

Oddschecker (does a basket) has Hussein at between 3s and 4s on, with McCain between 11/5 and 3s.

VCBet not competitive either side, not interested.


Didn't realise the situation was that bad...could be the guy just might pull off the 2nd greatest hoax in recorded history.