Ukraine war mega thread

[harrybarracuda]

Oh dear. He probably should not have done that.

WATCH: Russian Soldier Catches and Runs with Ukrainian FPV Drone Until It Detonates in His Hands

[david44]

Remote killing a very worrying aspect .
Of course from the development from trebuchet to firearms seeing your opponent eye to eye diminished.WW1 saw aerial bombs and Big Bertha long range guns and of course WW2 and subsequent conflucs it has accelrated.

However until this century there was usually a himan in the chain even if on a video link even a continent away.

I see a lot of issues once AI belnds with swarms of marine or aerial drones, no chance of teh change your course type response Red October style, opponents will have to respond in kind or risk defeat.

Putin is in a unique bind of his own making I cannot see him admitting defeat withdrawing from all of Ukraine including Crimea peacefully via negotiation and reparations to reconstruct Ukraine which will no doubt be funded by hard hit European and American taxpayer as usual.

Of course the danger if he is on the back foot and humiliation or reaction at home to casualties, costs, and sanctions plus any further Ukrainian incursion may te,pt hime to go bio/radiation as weapon, once we go down this road very tough choices not for Ukraine which is the only nation to give up its nuclear arsenal but for NATO, will it allow Ukraine to fall or respond in kind?

I expect like many Putin is awaiting while interfering in US election to see which way the cookiee crumbles. Of course any weakness on the part of teh democracies will be keenly noted by Taiwan and China and authoritarian regimes with ambitions.

The Europeans are still bar UK and Estonia paying their fair share to NATO.Ireland , Swiss Austrai and other free rider neutrals should be sanctioned economically or asked to donate an equivalent amount which need not be used on arms but constant current needs of Ukriane to maintain its internal infrastructure esp electricity supply before the winter.

I am no supporter of Putin but cannot see him losing soon in the same way that the west does not want Ukraine to lose but is understandably trying to stay hands off , for example long distance strategic strikes on airfileds, munitions factories . In meantime teh smaller Ukrainian economy and forces are being attrited as Putin is able and willing to throw young conscripts , prisoners, mercenaries, anyone into the battle.

I see no end to this imbroglio in the near future despite teh staus quo being bad news for all.I hope the next POTUS with inified NATO and democratic support acts.

IMHO strong signals to places like MENA and India, Palisyan , Indonesia, all of ASEAN that trade with Russia means end to particpation in the International community , toss them out of ITU WTO, IMF and Word Bank , same with any companies NGOs who trade with them such that India and MENA area have to choose. Block visas, tourism, currency exchamge, all aid ,banking access, Swift membership, kids taking advantage of Western education, treat them like pariahs Iran N Korea etc.

[bsnub]

Sept 18 (Reuters) - A major Ukrainian drone attack on Russia triggered a giant blast and forced the partial evacuation of residents near the site of a large Russian arsenal in the Tver region on Wednesday, war bloggers and some media reported.

Unverified video and images on social media showed a huge ball of flame blasting high into the night sky and detonations thundering across a lake in the region that lies northwest of Moscow and not far from the border with Belarus.

NASA satellites picked up several sources emanating from the site in early Wednesday hours and earthquake monitoring stations picked up what sensors thought was a minor earthquake in the area.

Fire fighters were trying to contain the fire, Igor Rudenya, the governor of the Tver region, said in a post on the Telegram messaging channel of the region's administration. He did not say what was burning.

According to an RIA state news agency report from 2018, Russia was building an arsenal for the storage of missiles, ammunition and explosives in Toropets, a 1,000-year-old town, which has a population of just over 11,000.

Russian state media had suggested it was a major arsenal for conventional weapons.

There was no information about casualties.

The size of the main blast shown in the unverified social media video was consistent with 200-240 tons of high explosives detonating, according to George William Herbert of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California.

Reuters was unable to immediately confirm that what state media had reported was a major arsenal had been hit. The defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Schools and kindergartens were moved online in the Zapadnodvinsky district, which borders the Toropetsky district, the administration of the district said on the social VKontakte network.

Russia's air defence units destroyed 54 drones that Ukraine launched overnight against five western Russian regions, Russian state news agencies cited a report from the Russian defence ministry as saying.

Regional governors reported no damages from those attacks.

But the defence ministry report did not mention the Tver region, which borders the Moscow region to its southeast.

Reuters could not independently verify the reports. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.

Kyiv has previously said its strikes on Russia are aimed at military, energy and transport infrastructure key to Moscow's war efforts.

Russian officials rarely disclose the full extent of damage inflicted by Ukrainian attacks.

As Ukraine has ramped up its domestic drone production over the past two years, it has increased attacks on Russian territory.

Ukraine's biggest-ever drone attack struck the Russian capital in September, killing at least one, wrecking homes and disrupting flights at Moscow's airports.

reuters.com

[bsnub]

The size of the main blast shown in the unverified social media video was consistent with 200-240 tons of high explosives detonating, according to George William Herbert of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California.

This is a gross underestimation. Looking at these videos the claims the X account claims of 30 thousand tons sounds viable, the explosion actually formed a mushroom cloud.

https://x.com/vik8867dn/status/1836274230914125976

[bsnub]

Over the last year and a half, I reported from eight countries across four continents, including more than a year interviewing 18 deserters of the Russian military, for my story “The Deserter.” Together, their experiences gave me a vivid picture of the Russian war operation, its corruption, its chaos and its brutality. The deserters also gave me a window into how they found themselves fighting in the first place and why they then took the extreme measure to flee. My story focuses on one deserter named Ivan and his wife, Anna — pseudonyms we used for their protection.

For Ivan, a kid from nowhere, the military was an honorable path. It held the promise of adventure, defense of the homeland and brotherhood. The reality, however, was very different.

Here is what we can learn about the Russian military and its soldiers from Ivan and Anna, as well as from my conversations with military experts, other deserters and human rights organizations.

At first, soldiers didn’t realize they were being sent to war. Then they couldn’t refuse.

Almost 200,000 Russian service members were stationed at the border with Ukraine for weeks before the invasion in 2022. They had been told this was just an exercise, yet they had been handed weapons, medical kits and gear.

After the first few months of the invasion, stories trickled home from the front lines, and volunteers began to dry up. The authorities began an enlistment drive, promising that combatants of the S.V.O., the so-called special military operation, would be considered veterans under Russian law, entitled to a host of lucrative long-term benefits. Recruiters promised cash bonuses for “heroic deeds.”

Officers in Russia faced a different kind of pressure to deploy, including public shaming and threats of violence. Once they arrived behind “the ribbon,” as the front was called, there were additional dangers to refusing orders. They had all heard rumors about the pits, basements where officers were held against their will for refusing to fight. There was a bulletin board, which soldiers called the Wall of Shame, at the center of Ivan’s base, displaying the portraits of these men.

Everyone knew that the Russian military was not squeamish about extrajudicial reprisals.

Before the war, most people enlisted for economic reasons.

Even before the war, the Russian military offered financial incentives for enlistment. When Ivan talked to his men at the front line in Ukraine, they said they hadn’t been dragged there against their will. Some were career enlisted; others signed three-month contracts thinking they could make some money and go home.

After signing, they were told to report back the next morning for transport to the S.V.O. None of Ivan’s men had received the training they were promised.

They told Ivan they fought in the war because the authorities had promised that their children could be admitted into schools normally reserved for those with high marks, bribes or connections.

In the Russian military, appearances outweighed reality.

Under Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who led the military until this spring, the most glaring example of this disconnect was the emphasis on metrics, verified by the “photo report.” A commanding officer was not only supposed to do his job but also document everything on camera, from trainings to storehouse checks.

As the slide shows went up the district ladder, Russia appeared to be the most fearsome army on earth. For commanders, it doubled the workload; for grunts, it meant an absurd amount of time wasted standing around posing.

Behind the scenes, it verged on cartoonish — typically one man was chosen and photographed. He swept the barracks, did the dusting, cleaned the bathrooms, fixed the piping and raked the lawn for the camera. Everyone knew it was bogus.

The system is built on corruption, and theft is part of the job.

Graft permeates every level of the Russian Army, from the top brass to the grunts. Ivan watched as one of his commanders stole state-subsidized fuel from the military and sold it on the side at the civilian-market price. He was also ordering his subordinates to saw wood from the base’s firing range so he could sell it.

Few civilians realized that most of the military’s commanders were fiscal hostages. When an officer assumed his position, he was responsible for all his unit’s equipment, much of which had been sold or bartered by the previous commander and so was not actually there. This made it impossible to abdicate his job because it would look as though he stole the equipment, and he would have to use his own money to replace it. The equipment that was there was outdated and broke frequently — the parts were old and unserviceable or the repair unit just didn’t feel like going out. Still, the officer would be blamed for “not monitoring the equipment” and penalized.

So instead of reporting a break, the officer would sell some of the military’s fuel to repair the machinery.

The war has resurrected a culture of military brutality.

The Russian casualty toll is now astronomical. During a push for territory this May, British intelligence estimated that roughly 1,250 Russian soldiers were killed or injured each day — and that up to half a million Russians have been killed or wounded since the beginning of the invasion. Still, Russia continued to recruit 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers per month, about the same number that leave the battlefield as casualties.

Russian slang for killed in action is “200.” Many of the 200s were platoon leaders, younger officers leading ill-prepared troops on the offensive.

Rumors across group chats flashed with stories about brutal careerists sitting fat in the back basements and sending young officers to die without a second thought, without intelligence, without provisions.

Cruelty has long been part of the Russian military experience. During the time of the Soviet Army, the lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps to manage millions of conscripts led to a hazing system known as dedovshchina, in which second-year conscripts — deds, or grandfathers — brutalized first-years.

Though the service time has been shortened and the first- and second-year distinction eliminated, this war has resurrected the savagery of dedovshchina.

The younger officers who were abused by their superiors in Russia’s earlier wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya are now the generals, reviving the culture of violence.
Rounds of attempted reforms have meant very little to wartime command.

Deserters’ own commanders don’t want to report them.

It’s impossible to know the real statistics of desertion. Mediazona, an independent Russian investigative outlet in exile, says there have been almost 7,400 AWOL cases in military courts since the start of the mobilization, but experts agree that’s only a small fraction of the number who have tried to escape. This is while the Russian authorities have made it more and more difficult to avoid service.

Last year, the authorities also raised the maximum age of conscription to 30 from 27, which will increase the number in the pool to at least 700,000 by 2025. In April, Mediazona wrote that the rise in the number of deserters in 2024 was “unprecedented.” But soldiers most frequently receive suspended sentences so they can return to base, apologize and be sent straight back to the front line.

The actual number of deserters is most likely much higher because few commanding officers want to officially declare a subordinate AWOL; they don’t want to get knocked by superiors for losing track of a man. So everyone tries to solve the situation on their own to avoid officially entering a soldier’s name into the system.

Desertion is dangerous, and deserters are afraid to speak out.

Very few deserters from the Russian military have spoken to the news media. They know that inside and outside the country, Russians who speak out against President Vladimir Putin can end up dead.

Seemingly unimportant individuals are hunted and harassed, thrown off balconies in Europe or the United States. Journalists and activists have been poisoned.

Many deserters can’t flee to safety. Without an international passport, they are trapped in the countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s answer to NATO, where they are still within easy reach of the Kremlin. Many of the men I spoke to believe that their salvation is farther away, in Europe or the United States. But they say that neither place will have them.

Takeaways From ‘The Deserter’ in The New York Times Magazine - The New York Times

[harrybarracuda]

Might as well do it for a few weeks before baldy orange cunto pulls the rug from under their feet.

Joe Biden's belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv and will almost certainly prompt the UK to follow suit.
But the stunning shift in US policy - just weeks before Donald Trump takes over as US president - will also trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow at a time of increasing uncertainty about the future course of its war.

President Vladimir Putin has warned the West they would be playing with fire if they allowed Ukrainian forces to launch Western-supplied cruise and ballistic missiles at Russia, saying it could even trigger a global conflict.

It's a stunning shift in US policy - but Biden's announcement will trigger fury and fresh threats from Moscow | UK News | Sky News

[Shutree]

President Vladimir Putin has warned the West

Repeatedly. Again and again. Shrug.

[bsnub]

Joe Biden's belated decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied, long-range missiles inside Russia will be cheered by Kyiv

This should have happened months ago. Simply amazing that it took losing the election for this to happen.

[david44]

Agreed , I fear Ukraine will be hung out to dry to save money in the short run , the long time price will be higher.
It sends a terible ominous sigmal to Russia's European neighbours and hope for democracy there and Belarus,Transdnistria Georgia etc. A green light to agressor's everywhere and to never yiled nuclear weapons as Ukraine did.
Asian troops in attacking a Eurpean democarcy with N Koreans an ominous sign, what next the Chinese?

[david44]

Just relocated this thread , can anyone explain why it was miserabled?

[david44]

Polish and allied aircraft were activated early this morning to ensure the safety of Polish airspace after Russia launched air strikes targeting western Ukraine, the Operational Command of the Poland’s armed forces said.
All of Ukraine was under air raid alerts as of 2am GMT today after the Ukrainian Air Force warned of Russian missile attacks.

At least three people were injured and several fires broke out in Kyiv early today following a Russian missile attack, the mayor and military administration of the Ukrainian capital said.
This comes as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the lack of US response to the drone strike on Kryvyi Rih which has killed 18 people, including nine children.
“Such a strong country, such a strong people, and yet such a weak reaction. They are afraid to even say the word ‘Russian’ when speaking about the missile that murdered children”, he said on X.
“Yes, the war must end”, he added. “We must not be afraid to pressure the one who continues this war and ignores all the world’s proposals to end it.”

[bsnub]

The new way of warfare...

[helge]

March 2022 interview with Zelensky

Prior to the Boris Johnson trip to Kiev.

Bing Videoer

[helge]

I notice that the US, according to the 28 point peaceplan, have asked Ukraine to capitulate

[helge]

And 6 days to...."accept".

More than a few european leaders running around like headless chickens this very moment

[helge]

Zelenskiy Says He Won't Betray Ukraine for US Peace Plan

He needs asylum if he does........


not want to hang somewhere

[Bettyboo]

I can't see how Trump isn't working for Putin in some sense. He's an absolute traitor.

Having said that, he flip flops so much that you just say "Yes, Mr Trump Sir" then carry on as before and ignore him. Losing US intelligence data would be a big loss, but at least Europe know they have to develop their own, better system to be self-reliant in that respect. Helge will be please to know that Sweden has some top-tier planes that can help in that regard, and Denmark has some smelly fish to scare invaders away...

[helge]

Helge will be please to know that Sweden has some top-tier planes that can help in that regard, and Denmark has some smelly fish to scare invaders away...

Guess you have that ..mixed up

[Norton]

Trump’s so called peace deal is nothing more than handing Putin the entire Ukraine. There is no way the Ukraine or for that matter European's can accept this ridiculous surrender deal.
Time for the big Euro powers to get some balls and tell Trump to take his "peace plan" and shove it up his lying ass.

[helge]

Time for the big Euro powers to get some balls and tell Trump to take his "peace plan" and shove it up his lying ass.

By 'Trump', I assume you are refering to.....................Daddy

[NamPikToot]

all the ukrainians the have and are still dying and the families that suffered and are suffering and that Orange cvnt is sellling them out - someone should put a 7.62 in his ear

[bsnub]

Ukraine will motor on like it always has regardless of the threats from the fat orange moron. The intel will be a loss, but other than that they are not getting much else from the US anymore. It is ruzzia that is in trouble right now, Ukraine has been relentlessly striking its oil production and export terminals. Their production is down by 20-30% due to the strikes, the other problem for them is the price of oil has collapsed, and the Saudis have agreed to price match the cost of ruzzian oil to the Indians and Chinese.

Putin is up shit creek.

[misskit]

I can't see how Trump isn't working for Putin in some sense. He's an absolute traitor.

Trump laundered Russian money for years. Trump is scared shitless that his dirty dealings will be exposed. Putin has the receipts for this and surely other frightful behavior by the current US president.

I’m of the opinion that money laundering by Trump and others is part of what is contained in the Epstein files.

[bsnub]

I’m of the opinion that money laundering by Trump and others is part of what is contained in the Epstein files.

The files that have been scrubbed, no doubt.

[Bettyboo]

Trump laundered Russian money for years. Trump is scared shitless that his dirty dealings will be exposed. Putin has the receipts for this and surely other frightful behavior by the current US president.

I’m of the opinion that money laundering by Trump and others is part of what is contained in the Epstein files.

Many say that when Trump was taken to Moscow, many years ago with the promise of building a Trump Tower that he was taken to clubs with the kinda ladies he likes, given plenty of encouragement and it was all filmed - almost certainly true, imho. A staple of the KGB handbook and several ex-KGB/FSB members have smugly talked about this being standard practice for all rich foreign "investors" - wined, dined, given women/girls/men/boys and filmed - it has been their policy for decades.