Ukraine war mega thread

[harrybarracuda]

In fairness mike, if the russkies are so short of ballistics- why on earth would they be sending dummy missiles (ie no warhead) to deplete Ukrainian aerial defences?

I wonder if he ever sits down and thinks about what he's writing before he posts it?

[harrybarracuda]

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, responded by slamming Zelensky’s move as authoritarian. "The current Ukrainian authorities have openly become enemies of Christ and the Orthodox faith," he said.

No prizes for who posted this. How could anyone actually post this without breaking down in tears of laughter? This statement is so nonsensical it beggars belief. I'm speechless anyone could possibly be this naive.

Judging by his response, the irony is completely lost on him.

[harrybarracuda]

Yawwwn.





Are you going to tolerate this sort of ad-hom trash in the News thread Moderators? Because if so, it leaves me no choice but to respond in kind.

Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul - are you honestly fucking serious?

[sabang]

I wonder if he realises that a warhead is not a ballistic, but a missile is.

I wonder if the Moderators realise that the usual Trolls are totally fucking up a News thread.

[harrybarracuda]

Senior officials said the EU had to act extremely quickly as companies are already making decisions on where to build their future factories for everything from batteries and electric cars to wind turbines and microchips.

I know one country that won't be getting the business.

[harrybarracuda]

I wonder if he realises that a warhead is not a ballistic, but a missile is.

I wonder if the Moderators realise that the usual Trolls are totally fucking up a News thread.

You wouldn't know what news is if someone set fire to it and shoved it up your arse.

P.S. Let me know when you ever learn what "aerial defence" actually means.

[sabang]

Moderators???


Go stick your head up a cows cnut, and let a bull fuck some sense into ya 'arry.

[harrybarracuda]

Not real sure what you are on about, but an off topic post of yours was deleted from the World News thread.

He's lying as usual.

[harrybarracuda]

There's an excellent article - from April this year - here.

Essentially they're just nationalist lackeys who Putin uses to try and bolster his crumbling image.

How the Russian Orthodox Church is Helping Drive Putin’s War in Ukraine

How the Russian Orthodox Church is Helping Putin’s War | Time

[bsnub]

He's lying as usual.

Par the course for him. Literally every post he makes should be considered as fake, misleading or a flat out lie. It is what these Putin useful idiots do.

[sabang]

Ukraine has likely lost 100,000 soldiers who won’t readily be replaced while US arms deliveries are depleting stocks and exposing security holes in Asia

In a shocking statement that has now been withdrawn, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote that Ukraine has lost 100,000 soldiers and 20,000 civilians in the Ukraine war.

This conforms to comments made by US Joint Chief of Staff head General Mark Milley, who in a speech at a conference hosted by New York’s Economic Club said that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war and that the number of troop casualties is probably the “same” for Ukraine’s army.

Ukraine’s heavy casualties are a signal that Washington’s de facto war with Russia is in trouble. President Joe Biden has to change direction or face a national security crisis that could end his presidency.


Ukraine may look as if it were winning. The truth is the opposite because Ukraine is running out of manpower it cannot replace. It is losing by attrition on the battlefield and, with the Russians systematically destroying its infrastructure, millions of Ukrainians have fled abroad. It is unlikely the country could recover even if the war should end tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Russia’s manpower problems are less severe. Moscow has been replenishing its supply of front-line troops through an unpopular conscription program at home that has now been extended to the territories in Ukraine that it occupies.

Russia’s proxy army, the Wagner Group, also has been significantly enlarged from 8,000 last April to nearly 40,000 now. Many Wagner Group fighters have been recruited from Russian prisons and some have been brought in from other countries, especially the Middle East and Africa.


Ukrainian estimates the number of Wagner Group casualties at between 800 and 1,000; others put them at 3,000.

Among the most stunning bits of information that have recently surfaced, reports in Poland say that around 1,200 Polish “volunteers” have been killed in Ukraine. These appear to have been drawn from Poland’s active land army, which consists of three main divisions.


The Polish army is composed of 61,200 soldiers and support personnel. It is unlikely Poland will commit many more troops given the high casualties and the risk that Russia will strike Poland in retaliation.

The most recent estimate of the Ukraine land army’s fighting strength is 198,000 troops. Given the alarmingly high casualty rates, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing a genuine crisis if the war drags on much longer.

Russia has recently focused on destroying Ukraine’s .

The battlefield casualties on the Ukrainian side appear to be largely the result of Russian heavy artillery that is being coordinated by Russian drones, most of them variants of the Orlan-10.


An Orlan-10 drone. Photo: Wikipedia

Russia has also made progress by improving its command and control and leadership in the field. The Russians pulled back strategically from Kherson in order to preserve manpower and organize better defensive positions.


Most of the heavy fighting now appears to be taking place in and around Bakhmut, where Russian and local troops seem to be making slow but steady progress. That battle is chewing up Ukrainian reserves and has cost Ukraine large amounts of ammunition that cannot readily be replaced.

The Europeans have made clear that their resources have diminished to a critical level and that continuing to supply Ukraine may not be possible. The US is also facing an empty cupboard, especially regarding important high-tech systems such as HIMARS, antitank weapons such as Javelin and MANPADS including Stinger.

The US also is short on conventional ammunition, including 155mm shells. Worse still, the emptying of vital war stocks has delayed deliveries of supplies to Taiwan and created vacuum opportunities for China should it choose to strike Taiwan.

Taiwan is not getting HIMARS, or long-range artillery, or even F-16V jets, whose manufacture has been strangely delayed for some years. In a recent exercise in Japan, the US Marines flew in a HIMARS but did not fire it because of rocket shortages.

At some point, Congress may start asking questions such as why the administration risked US security for Ukraine. It is abundantly clear the US Congress can’t keep voting for billions of dollars worth of weapons for Ukraine when the US itself lacks the arms and can’t support its vital interests elsewhere.


The bottom line in Ukraine is that Zelensky may be unable either to sustain and replenish his war materials or to make up for his lost troops. While the Ukrainian government has been actively censoring war information (which is not at all surprising; von der Leyen is the latest victim), it’s clear that the noose is tightening.

Meanwhile, the degradation of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure may fuel an even greater exodus from the country, as people look for warmth and shelter and young people also dodge the draft.

Russia, as is by now well known, also has serious problems both in recruiting and training soldiers, and its ability to replace weapons. But Russia also has huge war stocks it acquired before the downfall of the Soviet Union, and it is now bringing some of them to bear in the Ukraine war.

It is extremely hard to judge Russian staying power since objecting to the war or criticizing the army can land the outspoken in prison. Even so, there does not yet appear to be an internal anti-war movement with enough credibility to drive Russian leaders to back off. Russia will stay in the war through the winter and perhaps longer, guessing that it can fracture NATO and humiliate the United States – which is Russia’s real goal now.


In Washington, President Biden benefits, at least for now, from showing that he is a strong leader who can “fight the good fight,” albeit using Ukrainians as proxies. But as winter falls on Europe, with a looming energy crisis and serious financial problems, it is hard for Biden to be comfortable with the risk that, one bright day, the entire enterprise crashes and burns.

Biden wants to run for president again in 2024 and thinks he can win the same way he won in 2020. But that may not be the case if his war goes belly-up, if Europe moves in another direction or if real trouble comes in Asia focused on Taiwan or even Korea.

Biden cannot survive a crisis over who lost Europe, who lost Taiwan, or who lost Korea. To be credible and remain in office, Biden must change direction on Ukraine and security, and soon.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebryen

https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/ukrain...ble-for-biden/


Still got that Winning feeling boys?

[harrybarracuda]

Sabang: "I hate NEOCONS"

Also Sabang: "Look at this wonderful article from a NEOCON"

[sabang]

Whatever he is, he is telling you what you need to hear. Pull your head out of the sand. If Bryen is indeed one of those Neocons that helped cheerlead Ukraine into this disastrous war, and the US/Nato into this proxy war- he has certainly realised his error by now.

[pickel]

You really have no idea what is going on on the battlefield.

The Wagner Group has been trying for weeks to take Bakhmut. Their founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is trying to prove a point and establish power over the Russian Army. All the criminals he has taken from Russian prisons, and untrained conscripts, are being used as fodder and sent wave after wave into Ukrainian fire to find Ukraines weaknesses. They are losing 5:1 against Ukraine in Bakhmut . They may eventually take it. But once Putins Chef does that, that's it for his battlefield wins. Too much fodder leads to low morale. Every missile fired into Ukrainian cities builds morale. And meanwhile, Russia has taken its eye off of Kremmina, a much more important city than Bakhmut.

[harrybarracuda]

Whatever he is, he is telling you what you need to hear. Pull your head out of the sand. If Bryen is indeed one of those Neocons that helped cheerlead Ukraine into this disastrous war, and the US/Nato into this proxy war- he has certainly realised his error by now.

[sabang]

You really have no idea what is going on on the battlefield.

No different to you, snubski or anyone else- I just read reports. The only difference is, I try to read reports from both sides- some of which I Link here (Russian propaganda!).

If you are taking the Ukrainian reports at face value, you are truly being blinkered. I've only been saying that for months.

[bsnub]

You really have no idea what is going on on the battlefield.

He has literally no clue. I have said it before, and I will say it again, for someone so obsessed with commenting on this war he is astonishingly completely clueless as to the reality of what is happening on the ground. It is why he gets completely blindsided when the Ukrainians start to rattle off big gains on the battlefield, his response is usually to slink off the forum for a few days before returning from his mini flounce.

Then he restarts posting the same old shit ad nauseum that he has been posting since before this war he claimed would never happen started. Completely utterly clueless.

No different to you, snubski or anyone else- I just read reports.

Bullshit, you have read some propaganda horseshit off southfront. I have forecast several key events and offensives since this war began. You on the other hand have been wrong about literally everything.

[pickel]

No different to you, snubski or anyone else- I just read reports.

I suggest you try reading different reports then, because snubbies and my predictions are usually correct, whereas yours....... not so much.

[pickel]

It is why he gets completely blindsided when the Ukrainians start to rattle off big gains on the battlefield, his response is usually to slink off the forum for a few days before returning from his mini flounce.

I cant wait for the ground to freeze, so he shuts up for awhile.

[sabang]

Oh, so Ukraine is winning- and putin is having his arse handed to him on a plate. I'm afraid not- maybe read #10912 again, this time slowly. Dr Bryen is no Russian proagandist, or shill. Google him if you like.

The gravy train to Ukraine will certainly not remain unlimited with a Republican controlled Congress. And the West is running out of military stocks anyway. Then there are the emerging political cracks (and the cracked pipeline), and Zelensky is a crackhead anyway. And u'mmm, about those sanctions. The weather vane is only pointing one way, as best I can see.

Oh, but the coming Winter offensive, sigh. You'll see.

[pickel]

Will there ever be a point in time when you realize your "reports" aren't vey accurate? You bear all the hallmarks of a cult member.

[sabang]

OK armchair general. I don't need to wear out my keyboard any more. You will find out in the fullness of time who has been misleading you.

[pickel]

You will find out in the fullness of time who has been misleading you.

You bear all the hallmarks of a cult member.

Jim Jones would be proud of you. Have some more Kool-aid.

[Loy Toy]

I really hope that Putin doesn't go to the next level.

You all can read into that what you want but if he goes to that next level, including what the west does in response, may change the world we live in.

[pickel]

There are only two options for "next level". One is full mobilization, and then he will be destroyed from within Russia. The other is nukes, and then, if he isn't destroyed from his own Generals who deny him, he will will be destroyed by NATO. He's not going to try either, and will be gone from power within a year.

If the West cowers to a dictator because he has nukes, then every dictator will soon do what they can to get them.