Ukraine war mega thread

[Backspin]

Ukraine has no more oil refining capacity, the last of three refineries has now been taken out- about the only oil that can get in now is via Soviet era rail from Moldova, and even that is vulnerable- a single rail line. Already seeing long lines at petrol stations. They are certainly putting up some stern resistance, but this will really hamper their war effort and capacity. What can they & Nato do?

Iraqi's in the insurgent period put up a fierce resistance too. And so did the Taliban for 20 years. This is the kind of grunt work that the Donbas forces are doing right now. Russia is going for a comprehensive political victory. They aren't rolling over the country and then turning back and fighting the insurgency later like the US did in Iraq. When Russia takes an area in this war, it is taken. No street, no room is spared.

And the US spent 8 years and billions and billions of dollars to prepare Ukraine for a war like this.

It is a completely different way of war. But nobody in the western media even realizes this.

[bsnub]

This is the kind of grunt work that the Donbas forces are doing right now.

They aren't rolling over the country

Another understatement. Retreated from Kyiv and Kharkiv after being decisively defeated and are currently not moving forward, stuck in a meat grinder in Eastern Ukraine. UK intelligence estimates that fully one third of the combat power deployed to Ukraine by Russia has been wiped out.

When Russia takes an area in this war, it is taken.

See above comment.

[Backspin]

That is the understatement of the century.

So did the Iraqis. And the Afghanis.

The difference is Russia will chew through them. Just like they did in Chechnya and to a lesser extent Syria.

[bsnub]

In the 82 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Russian military has lost a third of its forces, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.

That’s tens of thousands of dead soldiers, sailors and airmen plus thousands of wrecked armored vehicles, a dozen sunk or damaged ships and boats and more than a hundred shot-down aircraft.

The heavy losses are contributing to a spiral of declining combat effectiveness. As Russia writes off more and more of its best weaponry and buries more of its best-trained troops, it increasingly counts on old weapons and under-trained troops to sustain its war effort.

But obsolescent weapons and second-tier troops get blown up and killed even faster than do the modern and first-line weapons and troops they replaced. It’s not for no reason that, with each passing week, the Kremlin ratchets down its war aims.

In late February, the Russians simultaneously attacked along four fronts—in Ukraine’s north around the capital Kyiv, in the northeast around Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv, in the east from separatist-controlled Donbas and in the south along an axis aiming for Odesa, Ukraine’s biggest port.

Facing stiff Ukrainian resistance, the Kyiv offensive stalled out after a month then reversed. Russian formations in mid-April retreated back to Belarus and southern Russia.

Some of the more-intact battalions then shifted east and south. But offensives on those fronts faltered, too. After halting the Russians in the Kharkiv suburbs, Ukrainian brigades counterattacked—and now are pushing the last few Russian battalions out of the northeast.

Simultaneously, Ukrainian counteroffensives slowly are rolling back Russian gains in the south around Kherson and in some areas around Izium, the locus of Russian efforts in Donbas.

As recently as a few weeks ago, many analysts gave the Russian army an even chance of encircling Ukrainian forces in Donbas and achieving its goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine.

A Russian victory no longer seems likely, or even plausible. “Russia’s Donbas offensive has lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule,” the U.K. Defense Ministry concluded on Sunday.

“Despite small-scale initial advances, Russia has failed to achieve substantial territorial gains over the past month whilst sustaining consistently high levels of attrition.”

It’s not hard to explain Russia’s military failures. The army deployed around 125 battalion tactical groups with more than 100,000 troops—the majority of its active ground force—for the Ukraine campaign. But these BTGs never had enough trained infantry to support the tanks and artillery.

Tanks rolled unprotected along highways, all but inviting Ukrainian missile teams and artillery gunners to ambush them. The analysts at Oryx blog have confirmed the destruction of 361 Russian tanks. The Ukrainians have captured another 239 Russian tanks that Oryx can confirm.

That’s a fifth of the tanks the Russian army had in service before the war. As more of the best T-90 and T-72B3 tanks explode, often hurling their turrets straight into the air, the Kremlin increasingly is sending 1979-vintage T-72As into the fight—and losing them in large numbers, too.

The Russian air force never achieved lasting air-superiority over Ukraine, owing in equal measure to rigid doctrine, munitions shortfalls and heroic resistance by Ukrainian air-defense troops.

Three months into the war, Ukrainian missileers still are shooting down Russian fighters and drones. Ukrainian pilots still are flying attack sorties. Ukraine’s TB-2 drones range across the war zone and deep into the Black Sea, sniping at Russian command posts and warships with their laser-guided missiles.

“Russian occupiers suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment,” the Ukrainian armed forces’ general staff reported on Sunday. “In some areas, the staffing of units ... is less than 20 percent.”

Russia does not have a deep reserve of professional infantry. To make good its losses, it increasingly relies on conscripts from the separatist “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk in Donbas. But these separatists are old or very young, poorly trained and—owing in part to the effects of foreign sanctions on Russian industry—equipped with museum-age castoffs.

One notorious video that circulated on social media depicts separatist conscripts wearing steel helmets and carrying Mosin bolt-action rifles. Both the helmets and rifles are from the 1950s. It should go without saying that these conscripts die at a high rate in clashes with well-equipped Ukrainian troops.

Russia supports large mercenary firms, in particular the shadowy Wagner Group with its thousands of former Russian soldiers. Moscow reportedly has arranged for a thousand or more Wagner mercs to reinforce battered battalions in Donbas. “Units of the airborne troops of the armed forces of the Russian Federation are teaming up with representatives of Russian private military companies for further action,” the Ukrainian general staff reported.

Not everyone with Wagner ties thinks it’s a winning proposition. Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner employee who fought in Donbas and Syria before quitting the company in 2019 and moving to France, told Reuters he rejected an offer to rejoin Wagner for the current campaign in Ukraine.

When the recruiters assured him the Ukrainians were unprepared to defend their country, Gabidullin shot back. “I told them: ‘Guys, that's a mistake.’”

Ukraine has suffered losses, too. Thousands of soldiers. Hundreds of tanks and other armored vehicles. Dozens of aircraft. All its major warships. But Ukraine enjoys several advantages over its attacker that mitigate its losses.

Ukraine’s supply lines are short and robust where Russia’s are long and fragile. Kyiv has strong allies who are spending tens of billions of dollars to equip Ukrainian troops with the latest and best weaponry. Most importantly, Ukraine is a big country with millions of military-age men and women, many of whom are strongly motivated to enlist. Kyiv doesn’t need to draft separatists or pay mercenaries to sustain its war effort.

The fundamentals of the conflict weren’t in Russia’s favor back in mid-February, before the first Russian battalion crossed the border, bound for defeat in the Kyiv suburbs. That hasn’t changed.

With Ukrainian forces counterattacking across the remaining three fronts of the wider war and Russian forces struggling to advance more than a few miles per week along one brittle axis, it’s clear who has the momentum.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gradsof...h=2b6a6893578b

[Backspin]

Another understatement.

Yep that method of rolling over a country , blowing up civilian infrastructure on the way is really a good long term political strategy. If Russia really wanted to lose, it would have fully mobilized and went full retard on the country just to show how tough it was. They would be stuck with this huge county that they wouldn't know wtf to do with.

Russia is taking parts in small bites. This way they can be properly integrated with Russia. And they are. Kherson was the first bite and Russian supermarket companies are already moving in. The currency is switched , the power is on. Everything works.

[sabang]

The map tells us otherwise snub. Wishful thinking, which has absolutely no impact on Putin. Luhansk will likely be the next major city to fall, and I kinda hope that with the Donbass & southern Ukraine secured, he might stop it there. But that certainly isn't up to me. Odessa? Kharkiv? Dunno.

I rather doubt that Russia has lost as much as 30% of it's invasion force either (which is only some 20-25% of the Russian army anyway). The Brits are the USA's loyal propaganda poodles these days, which befits their status as a vassal state.

[Backspin]

In the 82 days since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, the Russian military has lost a third of its forces, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry.

as the momentum.

4 Effective DEI Strategies Business Leaders Should Measure

Western governments have convinced the public that Russia is fighting an American style war. When in reality, Russia is fighting the equivalent of the "mission accomplished" phase of the Iraq war and the next 5 years of the insurgency all at once.

[bsnub]

Yep that method of rolling over a country , blowing up civilian infrastructure on the way is really a good long term political strategy.

That is what Russia is doing, you utter imbecile. Have you bothered to even look at the areas where Russia was forced to retreat? You are clearly living in some sort of fantasy land. Oh and in regard to your "tough" DPR fighters from the article;

Russia does not have a deep reserve of professional infantry. To make good its losses, it increasingly relies on conscripts from the separatist “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk in Donbas. But these separatists are old or very young, poorly trained and—owing in part to the effects of foreign sanctions on Russian industry—equipped with museum-age castoffs.

One notorious video that circulated on social media depicts separatist conscripts wearing steel helmets and carrying Mosin bolt-action rifles. Both the helmets and rifles are from the 1950s. It should go without saying that these conscripts die at a high rate in clashes with well-equipped Ukrainian troops.

It is clear you have no clue what is going on and live in a fantasy land detached from reality. Go play with your toys skiddy and leave the conversation to the adults.

The map tells us otherwise snub.

What map are you looking at? The current one that shows the Russians being pushed back across the border outside of Kharkiv?

Luhansk will likely be the next major city to fall

Sounds good to me. Time it was liberated by the Ukrainians.

I kinda hope that with the Donbass & southern Ukraine secured, he might stop it there.

Stop? He hasn't even started. He better get going.

Odessa? Kharkiv?

Chalk Kharkiv up as another defeat pal. Russia will not be back there.

What a couple of clueless imbeciles. Totally detached from reality. Pathetic.

[sabang]

Snub von Clausewitz. Keep up with the pompoms girl, I will try and look at the situation rationally.

[Switch]

Western governments have convinced the public that Russia is fighting an American style war. When in reality, Russia is fighting the equivalent of the "mission accomplished" phase of the Iraq war and the next 5 years of the insurgency all at once.

You stupid boy. Russia is being forced to back pedal due to embarrassing losses of men and equipment. Their logistics reputation is in tatters.
The Russian plan b is to hope they can find another reverse gear, so that Putin can declare a win, before the egg lands on his face.
Putin is losing his grip at home too. No more support for troops or equipment. They don’t have the money or the facilities to make good all the losses they have had so far.

Not everyone believes their bent proclamations that they are winning. The truth is the opposite of what you are being asked to believe.

[bsnub]

I will try and look at the situation rationally.

Did you apply that "rationality" when you claimed this war would never happen?

The truth is the opposite of what you are being asked to believe.

It is clear at this point that skiddy lives in some kind of fantasy land, at this point completely removed from the reality of what is actually going on.

[bsnub]

This video shows the Ukrainians at the Russian border outside Kharkiv. Video evidence they have pushed the Russians out...

[bsnub]

[Backspin]

The Art of Disinformation–Western Lies About the War in Ukraine

THE ART OF DISINFORMATION–WESTERN LIES ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE

by Larry Johnson

If you want to know how the war is going in Ukraine, you only needed to take note of one piece of “news” today–Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin called his Russian counterpart:

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Pentagon announced on Friday.

The call lasted approximately an hour and was at the request of Austin, who used the first call between the two in 84 days to urge Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to implement an “immediate ceasefire,” according to a brief readout of the call. The two last spoke on February 18, a week before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.


If Russia was losing or completely stuck in Ukraine, one would expect that Sergei Shoigu would be the guy calling Austin and begging for mercy. Well, that is not what happened. It was Austin that placed the call, apparently unconcerned about his recent public call to weaken Russia. Why would Austin urge Shoigu to implement an “immediate ceasefire” if Russia was getting its ass kicked? Russia getting whipped by Ukraine is exactly what Austin has called for. Remember?

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine. . .”

If Russia is on the ropes, why call off the beating? You call off the fight when its your guy getting pummeled. The Russian offensive in the Donbass has ramped up significantly in the last week and it is carving up entrenched Ukrainian units with no hope of being reinforced or rescued by a counter-offensive.

There's another few pages of debunking of all the various lies and garbage if you are interested. Just use the link.

[Backspin]

Looks like the next consignment of America weapons has arrived. (Russia does have more modern cruise missiles with longer range than the aging Tomohawk)

It’s unclear how many missiles Russia launched but the attack has been going on for 17 mins straight (Lvov)

Footage here Telegram: Contact @asbmil

[Backspin]

[bsnub]

THE ART OF DISINFORMATION–WESTERN LIES ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE

by Larry Johnson

You really are an idiot. That guy is just regurgitating Russian propaganda, he is a far right trumpanzee crackpot.

About Larry Johnson...

With the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Johnson has been writing articles highly sympathetic to Russia and Putin and has echoed much of the discredited propaganda coming out from Russia. He has made numerous false claims, backed with no evidence, that Ukraine is run by Neo-Nazis propped up by the United States and Russia is only attacking NATO bases in Ukraine and not killing any civilians despite numerous independent reports of Russian actions leading to numerous civilian deaths.^[25] He also has repeated Russian propaganda claiming they are easily winning in Ukraine and reports about the Russian army's many struggles are all lies from Western media. In a March 21st article, he claimed Russia has already won the war and the Ukrainian forces were all decimated.^{[citation needed]} He praised the Russian army and said the United States military would stand little chance against Russia in an armed conflict. In reality, Russia has been forced away from Kyiv, has faced fierce fighting from the far more lightly armed Ukrainian forces, and has been pushed back to the east of Ukraine with NATO estimating the Russian casualties between 7,000 to 14,000.^[26][27] Like many on the far-right, Johnson has portrayed Putin as a white nationalist hero similar to former U.S. President Donald Trump and that Russia is defending Western Christian white culture against a godless and pro-LGBT West and United States.^[28] Most of his pro-Russian propaganda has been published by the far-right fake news site The Gateway Pundit who have also taken a pro-Putin and Russian stance.

GTFO here with that crap propaganda.

[bsnub]

When exposed as an utter imbecile and for posting fake propaganda, skiddy goes into overdrive and doubles down on stupid.

Retreat from Kharkiv...

[HermantheGerman]

That is what Russia is doing, you utter imbecile......

Why do you even bother snuby? The impairments of Backshit's alcoholic damaged Russian genes are evident.

[David48atTD]

This is a fantastic video that I am about to post. It shows amazing Ukrainian resolve and reinforces the fact that they are winning the war of attrition.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...56432959070208

That was difficult to watch.

Trench warfare ... pure grunt ... ending with a lucky throw!

Do watch it.

[bsnub]

This is big. After pushing the Russians out of Kharkiv oblast, the Ukrainians are on the move. The largest concentrations of Russian troops is in and around Izium and if they get cut off, this would be a devastating blow to Russia.


Ukrainian forces are on the counteroffensive near the Russian-held town of Izium, the governor of Kharkiv region said on Saturday, striking at a key axis of Russia's assault on eastern Ukraine.A major and successful counteroffensive on that Russian line of advance would deal a serious setback for Moscow in the Battle for the Donbas, a region in Ukraine's east that Russia has said it wants to capture completely.

Moscow's forces have been trying to fight their way south from the town of Izium, the northern part of a Russian pincer movement aimed at outflanking battle-hardened Ukrainian forces dug in to defend the eastern front line.

"The hottest spot remains the Izium direction," regional governor Oleh Sinegubov said in comments aired on social media.

"Our armed forces have switched to a counteroffensive there. The enemy is retreating on some fronts and this is the result of the character of our armed forces," he said.

In a possible shift in momentum in the war, Ukraine has been recapturing territory in its northeast, driving Russia away from the second-largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in their fastest advance since Moscow's troops pulled away from Kyiv.

Ukrainian forces destroyed parts of a Russian armoured column as it tried to cross a river in the Donbas, video from Ukraine's military showed on Friday, and its defence minister predicted many weeks of grinding fighting ahead.

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, driving towards but failing to reach the capital, before withdrawing to focus its firepower on the south and the Donbas.

Moscow announced on April 19 that the second phase of what it calls its "special operation" had begun. It says the operation's aim is to disarm Ukraine and protect it from fascists, a claim Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss as a false pretext to wage an unprovoked war of aggression.

Ukraine presses counteroffensive on key Russian line of assault, governor says | Reuters

[David48atTD]

[bsnub]

The fighters in Azovstal are heroes without a doubt. It was the Ukrainian version of the last stand at the Alamo. They held up tons of Russian tactical groups for three months, keeping them out of the fight for the rest of the East, allowing Ukraine to reinforce and prepare defenses. Amazing courage and valor.

[bsnub]

Reach out! Reach out and touch someone!

[bsnub]

Murderous, raping scum get what they deserve...