Thread: How dangerous is Vladimir Putin?

Originally Posted by longway

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Originally Posted by longway

Why not? The syrian regime is hostile to Israel and aligned with Iran. Why should a weak sunni state tearing itself to pieces or descending into medieval barbarism be of any disadvantage to Israel? It would make a great excuse to make further land grabs in the name of 'security'

Its all mere coincidence then?

In order for there to be a coincidence, at least two things have to coincide.

Israel had a de facto peace agreement with Israel; Syria have never made any serious attempt to reclaim the occupied Golan Heights. In fact Syria has been supplying water to the Golan Heights for decades.

You're correct in that right now Israel aren't too worried because Hezbollah's attention is on Syria .

What I'm talking is what might come later.

Had the moderates been in play early on, a stable and probably accessible, inclusive government would have been on the cards, but that train has long left the station.

But now realistically we're looking at a Muslim state that won't take long to descend into a hardline Sunni theocracy. They might then want their land back as a point of principle.

Dumas, "Top British Officials Confessed to Syria War Plans Two Years b | nsnbc international

The former French Minister of Foreign Affairs appeared in aTV interview with the French TV Channel LPC, saying:

“I am going to tell you something. I was in England two years before the violence in Syria on other business. I met with top British officials, who confessed to me, that they were preparing something in Syria”.

This was also in the previous link. Perhaps he is lying, but the pieces do fit together rather well.

I don't actually see what you are implying the "bits" are, let alone how they fit together.

And "preparing something in Syria" sounds to me like the sort of thing some Anglophobe might mutter to his mate while tapping his nose.

In actual fact, after reading this:

In an interview with the French TV station LCP, former French minister for Foreign Affairs Roland Dumas said:

‘’ I’m going to tell you something. I was in England two years before the violence in Syria on other business. I met with top British officials, who confessed to me that they were preparing something in Syria.

This was in Britain not in America. Britain was organizing an invasion of rebels into Syria. They even asked me, although I was no longer minister for foreign affairs, if I would like to participate.

Naturally, I refused, I said I’m French, that doesn’t interest me.’’

I call complete narcissistic bollocks.

About the french guy, well it would be unbelievable without context, but when you look at the history, it just fits the pattern of decades of western interference.

The Anglo-Turkish War. The Russo-Turkish War. Look at history just two hundred years ago...same shyte , different century, eh.

Originally Posted by Neo

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Originally Posted by Neo

Still making it up as you go along Harry
You're starting to make blue look clued up.

Neo, you've already shown, by your wild claim that current oil demand exceeds supply, that you're out of your depth on grown up topics.

Run long now, sonny, go and play outside.

You're an idiot and a windbag Harry.. look on that thread and you'll see a graph that shows the overall trend is growing.. and why would fuel be in less demand with coalition jets and tanks to fill up, not to mention growing car ownership in EU, oh and it's winter if you hadn't noticed. You don't have any answers Harry just your usual bullshit and bad mouthing.
Proper keyboard intellectual you eh Harry

So now we know you can't read graphs either.

What a fucking moron.

Putin's airwar in Syria has been described as principled, but it appears those principals are as self serving as everyother politician. And by the way, to hell with the Syrian "collatoral damage" people.

[QUOTE]'We’ve never been bombed like this': Russia's military campaign in Syria has escalated to new levels
Natasha Bertrand

On Sunday, Russian airstrikes over a busy marketplace in the rebel-held city of Idlib, Syria, killed at least 70 civilians and wounded dozens more.

“We’ve never been bombed like this," Issa Khaled, a resident of the Aleppo suburb of Ghouta, told The Guardian the day after the attack.

"The skies above us looked like Hiroshima," he said, referring to the Japanese city targeted by an atomic bomb during World War II. "There were clouds like mushrooms everywhere we looked. The destruction was incredible."

In retaliation for Turkey's decision to down a Russian warplane late last month, Moscow has stepped up its bombing raids across the north, near the Turkish-Syrian border.

The raids, targeting rebel supply lines and civilian infrastructure, have created "an emerging humanitarian crisis" and exacerbated a refugee crisis that already has Europe near its breaking point.

“We’re seeing a huge increase in the number of civilian casualties. More and more people are being hurt because the intensity of bombing is greater,” Rae McGrath, country director for Turkey and North Syria for the American aid agency Mercy Corps, told The Washington Post's Liz Sly.

McGrath added: “It’s hard to imagine that the conditions in Syria could have become worse than they already were, but they have.”

US President Barack Obama has repeatedly expressed his belief that the Russians — who began their air campaign in Syria on September 30 on behalf of the Syrian government — will get bogged down and ultimately withdraw from the conflict. But as time goes by, the Russian air campaign is becoming only more intense.

"Expectations by each player that its foes will ultimately sink into the Syrian quagmire are perhaps sound in the grand-power game," Joseph Bahout wrote for the Carnegie Foundation's Syria in Crisis blog.

"Nevertheless, this will mean the slow death of Syria, with disastrous spillover
A man runs through dust in a site hit by what activists said were airstrikes carried out by the Russian air force in the rebel-controlled area of Maaret al-Numan town in Idlib province, Syria October 24, 2015.

Russia's air campaign — which, with its reported strikes on marketplaces and ambulances, seems less concerned with collateral damage than the US-led coalition — has been compared to that of the Syrian government, which is known to target bakeries, schools, and hospitals using primitive barrel bombs.

Russian bombs, however, are not as imprecise as the steel barrels packed with explosives and shrapnel dropped by the regime's helicopters. And they appear to be more relentless.

“Where are these reasonable Russians that [US Secretary of State John] Kerry claims are starting to see the light?” a doctor in an Idlib hospital asked The Guardian on Monday.

“Bashar’s jets never bombed us like the Russians do," the doctor said, referring to the forces that support the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. "ISIS never hunted us down like this."

Moscow, for its part, denies that it is deliberately targeting anyone other than "terrorists."

“We are talking exclusively about terrorist groups and where they are located, and in no way is civilian infrastructure a target for Russia’s air force," ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a recent briefing, according to The Wall Street Journal.

"Any objective observer cannot have a shadow of a doubt about the true intentions of Russia’s airstrikes."

Putin 'gains a lot'

At a marathon press conference last Thursday, Putin signaled Russia's intention to stay the course of the war in Syria.

"It's hard to imagine a better exercise" for Russian forces, Putin said. "So we can train there for a long time without any serious harm to our budget."

He may not have been bluffing: Mark Kramer, the program director for the Project on Cold War Studies at Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, told Business Insider on Saturday that a long-term Russian campaign in Syria is sustainable — for now.

The S-400 SAM system is capable of contesting most of the airspace over Syria, southern Turkey, northern Jordan, a significant portion of Israel, as well as all of Lebanon and Cyprus.

"This sort of operation would have been unsustainable for Russia a decade ago, but Russia's military buildup since 2009 has greatly improved the readiness and deployability of Russian forces," he said.

Hence, Kramer added, they can probably sustain the current level of operations for a while.

"Only if the hostilities escalate and Russian ground forces are deployed to Syria in sizable numbers will it begin to pose serious problems," he said.

Additionally, while the airstrikes are a "tremendous drain on Russian resources" and have not resulted in any game-changing regime victories on the ground, Putin ultimately "gains a lot, much more than in his previous projects," by maintaining the pace of his intervention, said Andrei Korobkov, a professor of post-Soviet relations at Middle Tennessee State University.

"With this incursion, Putin has returned Russia to a major power status, becoming a key player in the Middle East," Korobkov told Business Insider on Saturday.

[/QUOTE]

I hear posters saying that it is effective, but it is damn hard to find any data on that.

More at 'We?ve never been bombed like this': Russia's military campaign in Syria has escalated to new levels - Business Insider

Amnesty have accused Russia of using cluster bombs in civilian areas, and bombing medical facilities too.

But we knew Putin is bombing the Sunni opposition, so what's new?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

So now you all know I can't read graphs either.

What a fucking moron.

fixed that for ya

Originally Posted by Neo

I said that demand is on the increase, but the price is falling.

You're nearly there, Neo. One long hard look at the graph again, see the blue line that says "world production". This is a really long word, I know, but just to help you out, it's what clever people use when they mean "supply".

Go on, push hard, I reckon you might work it out eventually.

Well done Harry. And consumption means demand, that's another big word.
Do you know what the dotted line is for? Mr G will be along to bail you out soon

What's to quibble about on such a simple graph? Stockpiles are currently high (green column next to the vertical dotted line) but predicted to fall in coming months, no doubt due in part to the NH winter. Yes, in the last few months production has exceeded consumption, thus increasing stock piles, once again that is in the run-up to peak winter season- but may also explain the recent drop in oil price.

In terms of geo-strategic energy flows, certainly involving Putin, the main thing of interest is that Russia has rapidly become a major energy supplier to China.

Originally Posted by sabang

What's to quibble about on such a simple graph? Stockpiles are currently high (green column next to the vertical dotted line) but predicted to fall in coming months, no doubt due in part to the NH winter. Yes, in the last few months production has exceeded consumption, thus increasing stock piles, once again that is in the run-up to peak winter season- but may also explain the recent drop in oil price.

In terms of geo-strategic energy flows, certainly involving Putin, the main thing of interest is that Russia has rapidly become a major energy supplier to China.

I know, he must be giving the shit away cheaper than Iran.

Originally Posted by sabang

What's to quibble about on such a simple graph? Stockpiles are currently high (green column next to the vertical dotted line) but predicted to fall in coming months, no doubt due in part to the NH winter. Yes, in the last few months production has exceeded consumption, thus increasing stock piles, once again that is in the run-up to peak winter season- but may also explain the recent drop in oil price.

In terms of geo-strategic energy flows, certainly involving Putin, the main thing of interest is that Russia has rapidly become a major energy supplier to China.

By the way, the Green columns are not the stockpiles, they are already brimming.

It is the surplus.

They're running out of places to put it.

This was from November.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories grew by 252,000 barrels last week, versus the near 2 million-barrel build forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. [EIA/S] While the rise was smaller than thought, it brought crude stockpiles across the United States to 487.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 13, within a hair of their modern-day record of 490.9 million barrels set in April.

Everyone is praying that mild El Nino winter goes away fast!

Originally Posted by Neo

So stockpiles are decreasing while demand is increasing as the price falls. That was my original point.
With what other commodity would such a contradiction take place unless the market is manipulated?


Why always with the drama Harry ?

Are you really as thick as you sound?

Can you read English?

I mean seriously, which bit of this do you not understand?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories grew by 252,000 barrels last week, versus the near 2 million-barrel build forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. [EIA/S] While the rise was smaller than thought, it brought crude stockpiles across the United States to 487.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 13, within a hair of their modern-day record of 490.9 million barrels set in April.

Stockpiles are full. They are still pumping more than can be consumed.

And you think the price should go UP?

Fuck me, you really are giving RPETER a run for his money, you gibbering idiot.

Originally Posted by Neo

So stockpiles are decreasing while demand is increasing as the price falls.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Are you really as thick as you sound?

Originally Posted by Neo

So stockpiles are decreasing

Just to check your eyesight, does this look like it's decreasing to you?

So you've shifted the goal posts to the US rather than global market.
Wow, you so crever Harry.

Originally Posted by Neo

So you've shifted the goal posts to the US rather than global market.
Wow, you so crever Harry.

You're beyond stupid.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

You're nearly there, Neo. One long hard look at the graph again, see the blue line that says "world production". This is a really long word, I know, but just to help you out, it's what clever people use when they mean "supply".

Originally Posted by Neo

Well done Harry.

Originally Posted by sabang

What's to quibble about on such a simple graph? Stockpiles are currently high (green column next to the vertical dotted line) but predicted to fall in coming months, no doubt due in part to the NH winter. Yes, in the last few months production has exceeded consumption, thus increasing stock piles, once again that is in the run-up to peak winter season- but may also explain the recent drop in oil price.

It seems obvious . . . quit this one while you're behind, Neo

Harry the harbinger of failure, he's gone off half cocked as usual.
My point was that it's convenient that fuel prices drop as war in the ME hots up..
a modern opium for the masses as it were.. that's when the effing and blinding started

The blokes a chav

Originally Posted by Neo

Harry the harbinger of failure, he's gone off half cocked as usual.
My point was that it's convenient that fuel prices drop as war in the ME hots up..
a modern opium for the masses as it were.. that's when the effing and blinding started

The blokes a chav

I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

I'm afraid you are terminally stupid.

Originally Posted by OhOh

Originally Posted by MrG

I hear posters saying that it is effective, but it is damn hard to find any data on that.

Just look at the "sources" of the imaginary "facts" printed in the quoted MSM.

"Footage on social media and the pro-opposition Orient TV station showed"

Syria: Russian air strikes kill at least 73 people in rebel-held Idlib | Middle East | News | The Independent

"Another man from Damascus said four of his friends, who had not completed reserves training, were taken from their homes to an army base in the city early last week. “There are trucks driving around with loudspeakers ordering men and boys to join,” he said."

Russia's airstrikes on Syria appear futile with little progress on ground | World news | The Guardian

Many cities in Syria are partially held by ISIS and partially by the Syrian Government forces. Which group "kidnapped" the "four friends"? Or was the "source" unable to name his "friends"

'Russian' airstrikes kill scores in rebel-held north-west Syria | World news | The Guardian

"In a sign the ceasefire had broken, one rebel source said rebels had begun to shell the two towns again."

Not being a military man I wonder how the sources of these alleged fingers of facts, aimed at the P4+1 coalition, can determine if the "mushroom clouds" reported were in fact IED's, Mortar fire, artillery fire or bombs.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Amnesty have accused Russia of using cluster bombs in civilian areas, and bombing medical facilities too. But we knew Putin is bombing the Sunni opposition, so what's new?

The UN has stated, 23/12/15, on answering a question on the topic:

"Deputy Spokesman: Well, regarding that report, the Secretary‑General notes with concern Amnesty International's report on alleged violations of international humanitarian law resulting from the Russian airstrikes in Syria. The UN cannot independently confirm the cases presented in the report. As our monthly report to the Security Council has clearly illustrated, civilians continue to suffer immensely in Syria, including through the use of indiscriminate weapons against civilians and civilian infrastructure. And this must stop. "

Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

It's facts harry not tabloid headlines that indicate the truth. Not that you are keen on getting to them.

Since it's Xmas, I'm flying tonight, I'm bored in the office watching the clock, and I don't intend to give much of a fuck about who's bombing who, because they all seem to be at it and they don't seem to give much of a shit who they hit, I am just going to hope that everybody has a happy Xmas and a peaceful and prosperous New Year.

And let's hope those nasty terrorists allegedly running around Thailand plotting the next big thing are a figment of the press's hyperactive imagination.

And Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you too.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

And Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you too.

Take care harry and watch a few movies, look out the window for santa or entertain the stewardesses for a while. I look forward to many future encounters with you in the new year. I wish you a merry Christmas.



A smoking gun scenario or did Rudolf do it?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Originally Posted by Neo

Harry the harbinger of failure, he's gone off half cocked as usual.
My point was that it's convenient that fuel prices drop as war in the ME hots up..
a modern opium for the masses as it were.. that's when the effing and blinding started

The blokes a chav

I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

I'm afraid you are terminally stupid.