this ceiling is an outgrowth of demography and changing coalitions, and is largely etched into our electoral map. This has created a
“blue wall” consisting of
“the 11 states from Maryland to Maine (except New Hampshire); the three West Coast states; and Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Hawaii (plus the District of Columbia).”
While Republicans fared well in these states from 1968 through 1988, since 1992 the increase in the minority population and the movement of Northern suburbs toward the Democrats has, according to Brownstein, placed these states out of reach for the party of Lincoln.
So which is it -- bad luck in the overall playing field, or have a substantial number of states moved irrevocably toward Democrats?
As it turns out, we can test these hypotheses fairly easily. And, as it also turns out, the truth is “a bit of both.”
What we can do is control for any “national effects” by looking at the states’
Partisan Voting Index, or PVI, over the past few elections (I’ve chosen 1980 through 2008 in order to capture trends that started pre-1992).