Syria: the world watches as the brutality increases
Robert Fox: The use of violence against civilians is more glaring in Syria than in Libya - so why the inertia?
LAST UPDATED 7:47 AM,
OCTOBER 26, 2011
THE SHEER savagery of the Assad regime's tactics in putting down the rebellion in Syria is indicated by the report from Amnesty International which alleges that regime thugs have been seen torturing the injured in hospitals.
The 39-page document released yesterday suggests that the violence is getting steadily worse.
At least 3,000 have died since the end of March and many more injured. Amnesty's Middle East researcher, Cilina Nasser, says that the authorities have "given security forces a free rein in hospitals", adding: "In many cases hospital staff appear to have taken part in torture and ill treatment of the very people they are supposed to care for."
The US State Department has already announced that the American Ambassador to Damascus, Robert Ford, is being recalled because of "threats to his life". His house has been daubed with slogans threatening to kill him, and his Facebook pages have been hacked.
With the peaceful elections in Tunisia at the weekend, speculation has been growing of more concerted moves to end the mayhem in Syria and even bring regime change in Damascus.
After the death of Colonel Gaddafi, the opposition Syrian National Council, now based in Istanbul, crowed on Facebook: "After Gaddafi, it's your turn next Bashar."
Yet Nato allies such as Britain and France seem distinctly reluctant to flex their military muscles over Syria. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, specifically ruled out the use of allied military force at the weekend - though Senator John McCain said that he wouldn't exclude any option.
So, why the hotbed of cold feet, the studied international inertia, over Syria?
David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy invoked the now well-worn principle of the 'Responsibility To Protect' (R2P) when they went to the UN for permission to intervene to prevent Gaddafi's militias murdering the people of Benghazi last spring.
Yet the acts of violence against unarmed civilians are, if anything, more glaring in Syria than they were in Libya.
The simple answer is that Syria and its military dictatorship is a far harder nut to crack than was Libya and its dysfunctional regime. The Assad clan and the generals cannot be brought down by direct military confrontation. Regime change needs time and patience. Besides, the procrastinators argue, Syria is not a strategic threat as it is far too caught up with its domestic troubles to make serious mischief abroad.
But the arguments for inaction are highly questionable. Syria is important, a lynchpin in the Arab world, the ally of Iran, the Mephistophelian puppet master in Lebanon and the sponsor of Hezbollah, the Shia militia. It also has a big role in the fate of the Kurds and the simmering chaos in Iraq.
In terms of western diplomacy, Syria now sits firmly in Henry Kissinger's 'too difficult' tray - but this doesn't mean it can be ignored. The outcome of the insurrection in Syria could determine the fate of the Arab Spring as much as Egypt's current wrestling with democratic elections.
Part of the problem is that the military command was much better prepared for the uprising and protests than first appeared. When the Muslim Brotherhood rose in Hama in 1982, they
were destroyed by Bashar al-Assad's uncle Rifaat - until recently a resident in exile in Mayfair - with astonishing brutality. Somewhere between 10,000 and 20,000 were killed and the centre of the beautiful old city, with its famed gardens and water wheels, was levelled.
This time round, Bashar has been able to call on his brother Maher, 43, commander of the 4th Armoured Division and the Republican Guard, and his brother-in-law General Assif Shawqat, head of military intelligence.
They have used tanks, snipers, and undercover agents to kill, terrorise, torture and kidnap. They have also used the social networks, hacking into Facebook and other social media to spread the message that Syrians are being attacked by an international conspiracy of shadowy gunmen and agents, coordinated by the likes of Ambassador Robert Ford.
Disingenuously they have offered to negotiate with the Syrian National Council - but only on Syrian soil and with no international involvement in the talks.
Meanwhile the industrial cycle of killing and torture goes on, as the Amnesty report underlines. At the weekend more than 25 were killed in yet another battle for the city of Homs, now reported largely destroyed.
The old maxim for Middle East strategy was that the Arabs couldn't make war against Israel without Egypt, or make peace without Syria.
That notion should now be changed - it is the war in Syria that more than anything now threatens a peaceful outcome from the Arab Spring.