Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by jamescollister

go to Lao a lot, going there Wednesday,

I feel a trip report would be welcome. Come on let's see how the Collister family chill out in Laos.

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Sorry to piss you off, but those are awful trees for 8 year olds. they look like 4 year olds. Poor girth, and even more importantly, poor canopy. Purely down to lack of care, and lack of the correct fertilisers and amounts. Also that output of cup (my missus calls that style "fried eggs") is ok on the very first tapping session spread over a week or two on newly opened trees, but thereafter ie 3 weeks on, into tapping you should be getting a cup full per fortnight minimum. Sorry.

Think I'd take the governments cut down money if they were my trees.
Thai way, stick them in the ground, fertilize with hope. Jim

Yeah Jim the tree's are not yours ,the land is not yours ,this is just one of the reasons why I would never ever contemplate going into farming here in Thailand, but come to think of it that goes for any other business which involves dealing with Thai's, be it family or otherwise , heard and seen too many horror stories for the thought to enter my head for even a milli second ,the way I view it is that I have a good standard of living without the stress and worry ,of course there are success storys here without a doubt but I ain't worked for over 35 years to take a risk with my hard eared money here with people who's outlook on life in general is light years away from mine

Originally Posted by Pragmatic

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Getting rid of grass leads to soil erosion and good stuff in the soil like worms etc. Grass just needs cutting regularly, also adding nutrients as the cut grass rots into the ground.

Cassarva is usually grown between non producing trees which brings in an income till the trees start to produce.
Photo in post 638 shows bad land management in my opinion. I'm no farmer, just a tied observer.

Cassava is grown between rows of trees, you are correct. But it is the wrong thing to do, especially once trees are 2-3 years old and a proper root system is taking place. The correct procedure to remove established cassava is with a tractor and ripper. Worse than using a plough, and hence cutting all your nice growing roots. The only commercial thing recomended for rubber trees are pineapples, and stopping in the 3rd year. Year 4 onwards, nothing but your rubber trees on a rubber plantation.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

Cassava is grown between rows of trees, you are correct. But it is the wrong thing to do, especially once trees are 2-3 years old and a proper root system is taking place. The correct procedure to remove established cassava is with a tractor and ripper.

A ripper/plough is rarely used where I live, and only used when the cassava is being harvested in ground that has been baked hard in the sun. Also reason why cassava isn't harvested between rubber trees during that period. Plus they're planted in furrows to allow ease of manual extraction.

KOTTAYAM(Commodity Online): Panic is spreading among India rubber growers, owing to the steep fall in domestic rubber prices as it plunged below Rs 130 a kg level on Thursday in domestic markets. This is the sharpest fall in five years. Further fall is likely,raising fear among the growers. Experts say the price is likely to touch Rs 120 a kg.
In the southern Indian state Kerala, the plantations are passing through a gloomy phase as tapping has come to a halt in most small and medium sized plantations. The growers say the higher wages and expenses against poor returns forced them to keep away from tapping.
The demand for rubber is falling in domestic markets. And rising imports in the current year are posing greater threat to the prices. The farmers are in distress and they urged the government many times to freeze the imports. But the government has ruled out possibilities of hiking import duty.
A recent study conducted by Automotive Tyre Manufacturers’ Association (ATMA) has reported that 45% of plantations in India fall in aged and low-yielding category. The ageing trees pose the threat of low yield thereby signalling a cut in production. ATMA had urged the India Rubber Board to encourage farmers with higher re-plantation subsidies.
Source:- Commodity Online

So its not just Thailand thats having problems !, mind you Thailands lucky in on way cos they ain't got millions of Paki's breathing down their necks

Originally Posted by piwanoi

So its not just Thailand thats having problems !, mind you Thailands lucky in on way cos they ain't got millions of Paki's breathing down their necks

It's a world wide thing, not just rubber, but most commodities, big miners in OZ crying about falling prices etc.

No idea what's happening globally with the markets, but commonsense tells me that there will be an under supply of rubber next year.
People have stopped tapping, big sheet and block rubber makers are selling at a loss, they will stop producing or go broke.

Smaller sheet makers like me, stopped making last year, people cutting down trees, no tappers, not enough money to be made.
Can't continue for ever, or there will be no rubber, big picture stuff, oil down, iron ore down, coal down and rubber.

India is a strange one, big tire manufacturer, companies threatening to go off shore, they can't get enough rubber, restrictions on imported rubber.
Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by piwanoi

So its not just Thailand thats having problems !, mind you Thailands lucky in on way cos they ain't got millions of Paki's breathing down their necks

It's a world wide thing, not just rubber, but most commodities, big miners in OZ crying about falling prices etc.

No idea what's happening globally with the markets, but commonsense tells me that there will be an under supply of rubber next year.
People have stopped tapping, big sheet and block rubber makers are selling at a loss, they will stop producing or go broke.

Smaller sheet makers like me, stopped making last year, people cutting down trees, no tappers, not enough money to be made.
Can't continue for ever, or there will be no rubber, big picture stuff, oil down, iron ore down, coal down and rubber.

India is a strange one, big tire manufacturer, companies threatening to go off shore, they can't get enough rubber, restrictions on imported rubber.
Jim

Jim I really admire your optimism, I just hope everything pans out for you ,the way I look at it if any one deserves a bit of good fortune its you!

piwanoi, even at today's crap prices, we can get by OK, just no Xmas in OZ, fewer weekends away, but as long as there's beer in the ice, kids have all they need, we'll get by.
Next dormant time, trees go to sleep, will be the kicker, if we haven't put enough in the bank, I'll be looking or a few months work some where. An option that I'm not keen on, told the wife she should go back, get a job, I'll stay here with the kids.
Jim

Seems to me Jim, You'd be better off all the way around with a job that pays than a job that depends on Thailand's great unwashed hierarchy for a living? I suppose you know what the breaking point is when you decide a life behind "prison walls," is better for all.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Seems to me Jim, You'd be better off all the way around with a job that pays than a job that depends on Thailand's great unwashed hierarchy for a living? I suppose you know what the breaking point is when you decide a life behind "prison walls," is better for all.

Glass half full or half empty stuff, reality, take out living costs and we make more expendable income here, even at today's prices.
As said we are big enough to get by and have a better standard of living, here.

Last years was not good, but take out wages and fertilizer costs and we earned a tad over 1 mil Baht profit.

Going to have to get really bad before I give up and get a real job, if things are slow for a month or 2 may need to do some work.
Worlds got to get better one day, boom and bust, I'll sit here, looking out over the jungle, cold beer in hand for now. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by ltnt

Seems to me Jim, You'd be better off all the way around with a job that pays than a job that depends on Thailand's great unwashed hierarchy for a living? I suppose you know what the breaking point is when you decide a life behind "prison walls," is better for all.

Glass half full or half empty stuff, reality, take out living costs and we make more expendable income here, even at today's prices.
As said we are big enough to get by and have a better standard of living, here.

Last years was not good, but take out wages and fertilizer costs and we earned a tad over 1 mil Baht profit.

Going to have to get really bad before I give up and get a real job, if things are slow for a month or 2 may need to do some work.
Worlds got to get better one day, boom and bust, I'll sit here, looking out over the jungle, cold beer in hand for now. Jim

Jim sorry if I appear intrusive but 3 times you mentioned "we" ,of course I could understand it if you said "I' ,so does "we" refer to the whole "family" or what?, I mean you have already admitted the tree's are not yours and if they was you would cut them down and take the Government grant ,so really you do not believe that the price of rubber will increase in the future otherwise why would you want to hack the tree's down if they was yours? ,something in your story just does not add up.

piwanoi, we, wife, as to chopping the trees, was referring to the picture, not my trees.

My have made it sound like that, if the trees in the pics were mine, I would chop them down, my trees are good, not chopping them down.

As to who owns what, we family own, wife, kids and me, Thai law only says farangs can't own land, wife and kids can.
Not getting divorced, but under Thai family law I would be treated as a husband and entitled to the same rights as a Thai, but no land ownership. Family court would decide who gets what, in the kids interest. Jim

# Sold cup at auction today, Udon province, 25.00 baht per kg. Been dropping 2 baht per kg every fortnight for 8 weeks now. Colossal output from not that many taps this past fortnight slightly made up for the shitty price.
# Opening another 1000 trees this week which should help.
# According to the Rubber Economist and Global Rubber Markets, this year's end of season glut of 700,000 tons, will be almost halved by 46% next year, and 2016 "should" see a return to demand = supply. Hence prices rising.
# If prices remain in the low 20's next year, i'm off to the UK for a year's work, and my two main tappers are off to Taiwan for a 2 year factory contract.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

# If prices remain in the low 20's next year, i'm off to the UK for a year's work, and my two main tappers are off to Taiwan for a 2 year factory contract.

Suggest you purchase that ticket now. As well start looking at the help wanted pages. This seasons glut translates into next seasons over production by global proportions. Don't look for a decrease in supply. Consumption drives prices not production unless its "Under-produced, with high demand," like diamonds controlled by the Belgium diamond borse.

Loads of diamonds, just a managed supply on the open market. You won't get Viet Nam to cut production or India. World is awash in synthetic rubber, no supply side delima there.

Funny, considering that when folks start their plantations they think the playing field is even in Asia. When you look at the average intelligence of the locals and you still base your livelihood based on idiots in charge of a failed economy...there's just not much sympathy for you. Every market price in Thailand or Asia for that matter is fixed by the almighty Hi-So's and anyone who says differently is lieing to themselves.

Bangkok's elite have burned out more poor farmers than all the blight, droughts and free falls in markets put together. buy that ticket now thaigussi, don't hesitate.

Originally Posted by ltnt

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

# If prices remain in the low 20's next year, i'm off to the UK for a year's work, and my two main tappers are off to Taiwan for a 2 year factory contract.

Suggest you purchase that ticket now. As well start looking at the help wanted pages. This seasons glut translates into next seasons over production by global proportions. Don't look for a decrease in supply. Consumption drives prices not production unless its "Under-produced, with high demand," like diamonds controlled by the Belgium diamond borse.

Loads of diamonds, just a managed supply on the open market. You won't get Viet Nam to cut production or India. World is awash in synthetic rubber, no supply side delima there.

Funny, considering that when folks start their plantations they think the playing field is even in Asia. When you look at the average intelligence of the locals and you still base your livelihood based on idiots in charge of a failed economy...there's just not much sympathy for you. Every market price in Thailand or Asia for that matter is fixed by the almighty Hi-So's and anyone who says differently is lieing to themselves.

Bangkok's elite have burned out more poor farmers than all the blight, droughts and free falls in markets put together. buy that ticket now thaigussi, don't hesitate.

IMHO your post is depressingly 98% accurate

This article concerning China's rapid increase in Rubber production IMHO blows an ill wind for Thailand's rubber farmers That Stink Is the Smell of Money: China's New Rubber-Farming Dilemma - The Atlantic

^^The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Ye of little faith, go back 10, 12 years ago, naysayers, rubbers finished, 2008/9 GFC, rubbers finished.
I haven't done a days paid work in 5 years, willing to bet next year I'll still be sitting here, listening to the rain.
Oil sets the price of rubber, will oil stay cheap for ever, will Indians, Chinese, Sth Americans get richer and not buy cars.
Things go up and things go down, rubbers been around for 200 years and not going away tomorrow.

The way some talk, you'd think the worlds coming to an end, just a cycle.
Itnt, Thailand normally runs on a surplus, hows the US surplus.

Global production of motorvehicles

(cars and commercial vehicles)

Year Production Change Source
1997 54,434,000 [12]
1998 52,987,000 -2.7% [12]
1999 56,258,892 6.2% [13]
2000 58,374,162 3.8% [14]
2001 56,304,925 -3.5% [15]
2002 58,994,318 4.8% [16]
2003 60,663,225 2.8% [17]
2004 64,496,220 6.3% [18]
2005 66,482,439 3.1% [19]
2006 69,222,975 4.1% [20]
2007 73,266,061 5.8% [21]
2008 70,520,493 -3.7% [22]
2009 61,791,868 -12.4% [23]
2010 77,857,705 26.0% [24]
2011 79,989,155 3.1% [25]
2012 84,141,209 5.3% [26]
2013 87,300,115 3.7% [27]

Lots of car and trucks out there, they need tires, market forces at work, next year could be 2010 again, who knows.

Written exactly 2 years ago, perhaps we should have paid heed to this guy?

Not everyone agrees. In the July 17 blog entry I made a reference to a book by Dambisa Moyo, a former investment banker turned economic writer, called Winner Take All, in which the author argues that the world is facing a crisis in the form of a commodity shortage, and she expects prices to surge. Unlike her, however, I expect the price of hard commodities and certain industry-related soft commodities (like rubber) to drop sharply in the next three years, and to stay low for many years thereafter.

Not a good outlook.

Read more: http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/16/by...#ixzz3CEfJoAdv

^^
If you expect the world economy to slow, or go into recession, then demand for commodities will fall.
Question is how long the slow or no growth will last, not been much growth since the GFC, 2009.
Don't know average time between recessions and growth, but had them before, recessions, stagnation, depressions or whatever they want to call them at the time.
Crystal ball gazing, if I knew the answers, I'd be very rich years ago.

when "we" left the uk 10 years ago the guy I used to buy and sell shares said to me " don't worry I will not put it (fund money) in a rubber plantation in southeast asia. what did I start afew years later? a smallish rubber plantation! rubber is always boom or bust, always will be. the price will come back one day then for sure fall off again........... just gotta be in it for the long haul.
all you doom merchants, got anything growing in the wifes land?

jim keep pluggin away, you have a good out look on life in general. at least you give things a go.........
always a pleasure to read the goings on in the life of a plantation "boss" !

Originally Posted by farmerjohn

all you doom merchants, got anything growing in the wifes land?

Not me. She ain't got any land other than what the house is built on.