Thread: SET

Ooops!

^sometimes it's nice being poor

I'm waiting for the big one! I'll invest everything I've got, so when prices regain their value I should be up around 37 Baht!

For me I am to stupid and can't trade in a market that doesn't have and EOD feeds, ie something that can be imported into Metastock or equiv.

ok, which TD member is on TV making these silly accusations

Originally Posted by Barney_the_Dinosaur

Having bought Thai Airways and Bangkok Bank only last friday, I was about THB 1 million down yesterday.

Once again Thailand was trying to push the international capital markets around, and you can't do that unless you're OPEC or the Federal Reserve.


I learned a valuable lesson though yesterday, because I was thinking about bringing more money into the country (nothwithstanding the advice of that fat French freak Butterfly who was averse to the idea). Now I won't, you jusr can't do business with people who are trying to be 'cute' .

Lesson for all when dealing with 'emerging markets': demand a higher premium to compensate for the occasional wrench tossed in by those that should know better.

I missed the previous evening's news, was in the air and landed to a bloodbath, much of my green had turned red but primary rule (don't panic) kicked in, dumped some 90% of my portfolio at -12% to -14% of previous close then went on a buying spree when SET broke 600 and closed the day on a satisfactory result, considering. Am still down on the week but fortunately was in healthy profit before, now out of intensive care and should stay green if the learned ones learned that farang money keeps LoS afloat.

But what a monkey does once it can do again, so uncertainty is high and confidence is low but the good news is that aftermath of their hammer and nut experiment has resulted in excellent price/earnings all round, which has brought the scavengers out in force. Won't be another decent cooking list for the rest of this year but the smoke should clear towards normality in early 07 if the monkeys concern themselves with more mundane matters.

Ok, the smoke has cleared so let's try again.

What's happening? SET looks stable, been on the rise but don't let that grip your emotions because the tealeaves point to a possible bear run (10-20%) after it's had its fun. If this happens it should be gradual rather than sudden and with all the warning signs of an impending swoon, so no need to panic the moment it stops rising. Much of the negativity of the past couple of months is already accounted for, plus of course the usual premium for dealing with monkeys, but it is a good sign that SET's trading at a PE of around 7 against double that in local markets. It also seems that those in the hotseat are finally beginning to realise what happens to the Thai economy when they tell farangs to like it or lump it, and they're making some soothing noises to attract the bucks.

Ftr, have now set aside a % purely for short term trading, up to a fortnight. Many good things to go for, but if you can't keep your nose glued to the screen try wetting your toe first rather than leap in.

EPCO (0.55) has been cooking for quite a while. Fundamentally sound, earnings place it around 0.70 so it's well below where it should be. The chefs have been gnawing at this one for a while, volume increasing, and ready to go anytime. Nominal downside, holding and happy.

SEAFCO (7.60), excellent, already been moving a while, couple of minor corrections in past months but longterm chart void of bears. Sitting well above MA lines, retreated recently because overbought but back in motion and reaching for new highs. Despite its recent run there's still a clean 20% upside before first resistance. Holding and accumulating.

NSM (0.34), an old favourite, all dressed up but nowhere to go, still cooking, made it to 0.43 then was mauled badly but now out of intensive care and looking stable, low downside, good upside. Holding.

SAT (9.50), moving well and consistent. If you buy, keep a tight point for exit. Small holding.

PSAP (1.05), broke out with a good run, profit taking today and could go either way next week, so if chasing use a tight stop around 1.00. Holding.

PTT (200), no need to look at the charts, well below where it belongs, and once the smoke clears it should move in the right direction. Bit of concern that it may be delisted but that would be a disaster for SET as PTT accounts for something like 10% of its total value, the decision is likely to take up to 6 months anyway, and in that unlikely event it won't suddenly vanish because investors still have to be paid. Holding.

GEN (0.96), had a good run, rested up and looking interesting again. Use lpp around 0.9. Residual holding from 0.80.

TPIPL (12.60), up from 10.20 in less than a month and still full of life, resistance around 14.00. Holding.


DD as usual. Good luck.

Earnings season is starting next week, so there will be volume. I am expecting a disastrous quarter, so this is the last week to sell your losers before they get hit harder. Take your profit on those 100% gain, I did on a few already but not enough, so I am going to get hit hard next week.

A lot of insider trading and stock manipulation before the earnings season announcement, so watch who is going up or down.

Thanks Keda for keeping up this thread, very much appreciated even from a day trader

When earnings are over I think that's when we'll see a stutter then the beginnings of at best a 10% dive, probably more, but can make hay till then.

Ho hum, still not in daytrading mode but working towards it, up from 10% to 20%, and looking nice, but to be fair that's down to having my number on a couple of nerd speeddials. As to manipulation, look what they did to NSM today, and of course the usual suspects.

Two others certainly worth a watchful eye are MFEC and MPT, my guess is they'll both be much higher by end of month, also MME (from 35.00 down to 2.50) looks as though it may break out anytime but haven't done the math so wouldn't swear on my landlord's life.

I would expect NOBLE and QH to crash even more if the news is bad for them, or jump like crazy if there is better than expected. As usual, investors will overreact. If it crash, buy a few at bottom. NOBLE could go down to 3.50 from its 4.40, you need to be a buyer then. QH has rebounded to 1.17 from its 1.02, shame I didn't buy more at 1.02, that's still 17% gain in less than a few weeks.

This market is going DOWN .

Monday's another day but SET's rallied 9% since 9th Jan, partly due to previous overreaction as butterfly said, and earnings due also, but the glory days are a danger in that the unwary may be lulled into believing the impending correction won't occur, or when it begins that it's just another bout of profit taking.

QH appears fully valued but has well outperformed SET's recent advance in just the last two trading days. Could be somebody knows what we don't, or the puppeteers are at work.

Have been 100% invested recently but expecting to hold mostly cash by this time next month; suits me, could do with a break and missing the Indian mangos.

Many more good things, MPT, MME, and TMB all up, still looking strong and am rummaging through the drawers for loose change. EPCO in a holding pattern, ready to go but up to the big boys when. PTT big and lumpy, don't expect fireworks but lumbering in the right direction. SAT healthy, fair divi but could leap if the deal goes through and still worth holding even if it doesn't.

Has nobody actually turned a profit on this thread? Difficult to have lost since resuming and still many nice things to pick up.

Good rally going, could continue to the Chinese New Year or even end of month, then might go in zzz mode till April. Two strong support points now in place to stave off or at least stall any major correction. Seems overbought in the past month but was well oversold the previous month. Also, foreign money coming back, which probably means when someone in your family is sick it is better to try and cure rather than kill him.

Point to note in case forget to mention later, sell in May and go away.

Noble @ 4.90 and QH @ 1.20

no bad news yet as I expected for those 2 so it's all good

Market is good. How are you doing Keda ?

Question for you keda: have you ever tried "market maker" techniques on the Thai market ?

Doing well thanks, still holding and happy with those mentioned with a couple of additives, but as ever with a finger on the trigger... I looked at some MM abstracts a while back but not sure if I want to tweak what's already working, or even that it's suited to a wimpy SET.

Honestly and as mentioned before, am not a daytrader and not fast enough on the draw to be one, though now with a % set aside for it (hour to a fortnight) and coping with very tight stops, but successes to date are down to nothing more mystical then occasional phone guidance by some techy guy I did some business with in my rebelious (lefty) days.

Best recent examples are PE and PT, which wouldn't have earned a second glance without being told they had broken out; missed the pinkbit thrill on takeoff and also opted out early when it looked a bit tired, but no complaints.

You would do fantastic as a market maker, I will teach you

I need to have one or two stocks to be liquid when I am buying, and there would be an easy 25% gain on those spreads, it's a no brainer

Question to you guys that do this.

How can i turn 5,000 dollars into 6,000 dollars really fast and without it involving a short odds horse.

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

How can i turn 5,000 dollars into 6,000 dollars really fast and without it involving a short odds horse.

If you find an answer then there is a whole world of economists and traders who also want to know..

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

How can i turn 5,000 dollars into 6,000 dollars really fast and without it involving a short odds horse.

buy a race horse and bet on it

Good week...Valentine's Day started with a call - MME is looking good. I was already holding from 2.70 and it was on my list anyway (see previous post, also MFEC etc) so I topped up at 2.60-2.64 and settled in for the wait... Last Wednesday late-afternoon and SET was still looking quiet with MME at 2.62, then the screen suddenly went wild and 30 mins later it's banging against max at 3.32 (*Tip*), sold out, then bought back at 3.22-3.24 before it returned to close at 3.32.

Thursday, it spurted at open to 3.42, sold a few at 3.40, kept vigil as it started to slide, tried to sell the lot at 3.34 but sod's law took over, TT&T got cranky and the line went dead, returning just before 4.30 with MME at 3.08, though it bounced to close at 3.16. Sold out early Friday at 3.08-3.12, and bought back pm at average 2.94, which is where we start Monday.

This is NOT a recommendation for MME, not now. Though it still looks strong, the puppetmaster is controlling its direction, so if anyone does enter, do so with a tight stop. Last year it flew from 8 to 35 baht, because that's where somebody wanted it, then started a long slide to 2.20, and could now make another serious upward move, but do keep a finger on that trigger.


*TIP*
SET imposes a 30% floor/ceiling on stocks above 1 baht, and 100% floor/ceiling on those below 1 baht. Examples: If a stock closes at 2 baht, the next day it cannot fall below 1.40 or rise above 2.60 (30%); if a stock closes below 1 baht, the next day it can drop all the way to .01 but cannot rise above double its previous close.

Now, if a stock you own is running strong and looks as though it might hit the 30% ceiling, place it on offer at the ceiling as early as you can. If it doesn't touch max you lose nothing, but if it does there's only one way it can go and that's down, so get yours in the queue early so that it is sold sooner rather than later...then buy back when it slides back, and immediately place this new stock on offer at the max again. Using this technique, you can benefit by not just the one but with a bit of luck two or even more bounces in a day, thus increasing your upside by more than the 30% limit. In this situation you cannot lose, having sold at the upper limit, and the worst way, if having hit max it retraces and doesn't return to max, you've still sold at the top and bought back lower.

CAVEAT: Thinking ahead, beyond today...What if you believe this is one of the magic stocks that still has a lot of life left (after all, it may open 10% up the next day, on its way to another 30%)? It does happen, and of course you want to end the day holding it rather than cash.

So, having sold your wad at max and bought back when it retraced, because it WILL and at least the once, the only (highly unlikely) scenario that would have you not placing your new stock back on offer at max, is if it is near to close of business and you feel you do not have the time to buy back. Rare indeed, because there's always stock on offer at the max, so as long as you have the time to place an order, even at max, you will close the day no worse off.

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

Question to you guys that do this.

How can i turn 5,000 dollars into 6,000 dollars really fast and without it involving a short odds horse.

If you put a gun to my head and are happy for slow and steady (forget huge swings, which are just as likely to turn your 5 into 4), try one of the many solid large cap stocks that are undervalued.

I could suggest a couple but being a fellow TDer would rather look a bit closer. That said, late as ever, earlier this month PTT was mentioned as that ideal slow and steady workhorse, now at 214 from 200.

Bankwise, BBL (111) should soon see 120 again, and if you fancy a bit of excitement look at TMB which has fallen some 30% recently but now warming up, meanwhile may be a bit late for KBANK which is still looking good but has already risen 15% the past couple of weeks.

All of the above have already had forward momentum this month, but SET is still not certain to safely breach 700, which could cause a downward nudge, and even if it does there's still a good chance of fallback, so best for now may be to keep your money where it belongs.