Thread: SET

I've no idea where this is going, but the first pawn moved may be the start to a winning game.

Anyone interested in this thread, which could develop in any format, please try to contribute thoughts and ideas so that these tips/info/guidelines can be updated as required, and of course your own investment views are invited.


No personals, no abuse, leave animosity at the gate, the purpose of ths thread being to hopefully help turn a profit regardless of superficial issues.


The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is small relative to other markets, and its size makes it more speculative and risk prone than other, larger markets, but a more positive outlook has speculation = opportunity.

The average time between purchase and sale on the SET is shorter than in larger markets, in part due to not only its size but the mindset, attitude and expectations of the typical local retailer, who tends to prefer short-term or even daytrading against longer term investing.

There is nothing wrong with daytrading, or at the other end of the scale long-term, growth or value investing, or anything in between, as long as the bottom line shows a worthy profit, but shorter term trading naturally involves a higher risk than a methodical, unhurried waiting game.

As the SET is different to other markets, the following info, tips and guidelines have been adapted as far as possible for the Thai market, though personal experience and habits, trading strategy and methods will naturally influence any outcome as part of the myriad variables, which include macro-economics, local and global politics, timing, analysis, insider info, luck, as well as the gammut of other factors.

Nothing is ever recommended, even if a stock is touted as an absolute must buy or sell. Investors should remain cautious about all stock advice and recommendations, and are advised to conduct their own research into each stock before committing themselves. That said, anyone without a stake in NSM is gonna be pulling hairs out, so pick up a few for some easy profit.

Past performance is no guarantee of future price or behaviour, and regardless of the best available information prices may go down as well as up.

Due to the possibility of error, human or otherwise, nothing in or related to this thread guarantees the accuracy or completeness of the information, tips, stock picks, advice or suggestions.

The bottom line has you responsible for your own money, and also for Due Diligence before buying or selling.



Tips, advice and guidelines, in no particular order, gathered from several sources, and if anyone wishes to organise them for easier reading, be my guest:

- The first rule of investing is to protect your capital. NEVER allow your loss on a stock to exceed 10%. This is very important, not negotiable, and has no exceptions. If you are more than 10% down on a stock, exit with no questions asked. If the stock then takes off in line with Sod's Law, that's unlucky.

- Nothing is etched in stone, nobody is guaranteed to show a profit, whether as a daytrader, or a short-, medium- or growth or value investor. Select the right stock with the right timing to make money, and do either wrong to lose money, whether in the SET or anywhere else.

- Your greatest enemies are fear and greed, so keep these two impostors in check.

- If you are new to SET, best not to invest more than you can comfortably afford to lose, at least until you are confident that you can take care of yourself.

- Do not ignore news about investments and trading, but be careful with any decision you make based on them. Do not blindly accept a broker's advice, or follow advisory services, newsletters, or other so-called experts, which often have interests in conflict with your own. Do your own research before risking your money.

- Listen to but do not act on rumours. If you do act, convention suggests that you buy on the rumour and sell on the news.

- Do not ignore Thai insiders; they are more often right than wrong if they buy or sell their own stock. However, do not instinctively accept insider trades as a signal to buy or sell; an insider may be selling his company stock, for example, to repay a loan, or buy a property or car.

- Make decisions and plans before the market opens, based on due diligence, and do not change decisions and plans after the market opens, though pre-market prep should allow for most contingencies, good and bad.

- It is better to average up than to average down. Enter your position gradually, in two, three or even four stages, as the trend proves out. If your stock pick was right you will be averaging up, if wrong, you will be averaging down; either way you benefit.

- Let profits ride if there is no good reason to close the position, but periodically transfer some of your profit into cash.

- Do not overtrade, or needlessly expose yourself, and especially not on gut feelings.

- Do not ignore public opinion and sentiment.

- In forming opinions, the element of chance should be included.

- Bolt at the first sign of danger; if staying, be prepared to swallow losses and also your ego as the danger becomes real.

- Quiet, weak markets are generally good markets to sell, but with SET, low volumes often indicate a buying opportunity.

- Foreigners control the SET, moreso than Thais. Buy or stay invested if the foreigners are buying for several days, and sell or hold cash when foreigners are selling.

- The SET closes up on the last trading day of the week more often than it closes down, with a ratio of 5:3, and vice versa on the first trading day of the week.

- Buy on close and sell on open. If the DJ rallys 1% or more, SET usually ends weak the following day, so it is a good opportunity to sell on the opening. Conversely, if the DJ drops 1% or more, buy on open.

- Most IPOs open near the day's high and close near the day low.


Conventions:

res = resistance
sup = support
IPO or ipo - Initial Public Offering
SL or sl = stoploss (price < cost) - consider exit if price drops 5%-7%, and exit with no questions asked at -10%.
IP or ip = Increase position
RP or rp = Reduce position
LP or lp = lock profit
LPP or lpp = lock profit point (price > cost) - if price rises, move up your LPP accordingly, and sell if it falls to LPP.


BUY OR SELL AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION.

Good Luck

Anyone who entered TPIPL when mentioned at 10.00 is already smiling...now 14.00 and it can go another 40% but this will not happen without an interim correction or two, and with overbought RSI a correction is due any time, so best not to buy now, and lpp at 13.60.

MLINK is close to res at 2.2-2.3, but if clearing safely next res around 2.60-2.70.

NSM, said enough, got in early, well invested, waiting patiently and will be disappointed with anything less than a new condo out of this one.

Originally Posted by keda

I've no idea where this is going, but the first pawn moved may be the start to a winning game.

Anyone interested in this thread, which could develop in any format, please try to contribute thoughts and ideas so that these tips/info/guidelines can be updated as required, and of course your own investment views are invited.


No personals, no abuse, leave animosity at the gate, the purpose of ths thread being to hopefully help turn a profit regardless of superficial issues.


The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is small relative to other markets, and its size makes it more speculative and risk prone than other, larger markets, but a more positive outlook has speculation = opportunity.

The average time between purchase and sale on the SET is shorter than in larger markets, in part due to not only its size but the mindset, attitude and expectations of the typical local retailer, who tends to prefer short-term or even daytrading against longer term investing.

There is nothing wrong with daytrading, or at the other end of the scale long-term, growth or value investing, or anything in between, as long as the bottom line shows a worthy profit, but shorter term trading naturally involves a higher risk than a methodical, unhurried waiting game.

As the SET is different to other markets, the following info, tips and guidelines have been adapted as far as possible for the Thai market, though personal experience and habits, trading strategy and methods will naturally influence any outcome as part of the myriad variables, which include macro-economics, local and global politics, timing, analysis, insider info, luck, as well as the gammut of other factors.

Nothing is ever recommended, even if a stock is touted as an absolute must buy or sell. Investors should remain cautious about all stock advice and recommendations, and are advised to conduct their own research into each stock before committing themselves. That said, anyone without a stake in NSM is gonna be pulling hairs out, so pick up a few for some easy profit.

Past performance is no guarantee of future price or behaviour, and regardless of the best available information prices may go down as well as up.

Due to the possibility of error, human or otherwise, nothing in or related to this thread guarantees the accuracy or completeness of the information, tips, stock picks, advice or suggestions.

The bottom line has you responsible for your own money, and also for Due Diligence before buying or selling.



Tips, advice and guidelines, in no particular order, gathered from several sources, and if anyone wishes to organise them for easier reading, be my guest:

- The first rule of investing is to protect your capital. NEVER allow your loss on a stock to exceed 10%. This is very important, not negotiable, and has no exceptions. If you are more than 10% down on a stock, exit with no questions asked. If the stock then takes off in line with Sod's Law, that's unlucky.

- Nothing is etched in stone, nobody is guaranteed to show a profit, whether as a daytrader, or a short-, medium- or growth or value investor. Select the right stock with the right timing to make money, and do either wrong to lose money, whether in the SET or anywhere else.

- Your greatest enemies are fear and greed, so keep these two impostors in check.

- If you are new to SET, best not to invest more than you can comfortably afford to lose, at least until you are confident that you can take care of yourself.

- Do not ignore news about investments and trading, but be careful with any decision you make based on them. Do not blindly accept a broker's advice, or follow advisory services, newsletters, or other so-called experts, which often have interests in conflict with your own. Do your own research before risking your money.

- Listen to but do not act on rumours. If you do act, convention suggests that you buy on the rumour and sell on the news.

- Do not ignore Thai insiders; they are more often right than wrong if they buy or sell their own stock. However, do not instinctively accept insider trades as a signal to buy or sell; an insider may be selling his company stock, for example, to repay a loan, or buy a property or car.

- Make decisions and plans before the market opens, based on due diligence, and do not change decisions and plans after the market opens, though pre-market prep should allow for most contingencies, good and bad.

- It is better to average up than to average down. Enter your position gradually, in two, three or even four stages, as the trend proves out. If your stock pick was right you will be averaging up, if wrong, you will be averaging down; either way you benefit.

- Let profits ride if there is no good reason to close the position, but periodically transfer some of your profit into cash.

- Do not overtrade, or needlessly expose yourself, and especially not on gut feelings.

- Do not ignore public opinion and sentiment.

- In forming opinions, the element of chance should be included.

- Bolt at the first sign of danger; if staying, be prepared to swallow losses and also your ego as the danger becomes real.

- Quiet, weak markets are generally good markets to sell, but with SET, low volumes often indicate a buying opportunity.

- Foreigners control the SET, moreso than Thais. Buy or stay invested if the foreigners are buying for several days, and sell or hold cash when foreigners are selling.

- The SET closes up on the last trading day of the week more often than it closes down, with a ratio of 5:3, and vice versa on the first trading day of the week.

- Buy on close and sell on open. If the DJ rallys 1% or more, SET usually ends weak the following day, so it is a good opportunity to sell on the opening. Conversely, if the DJ drops 1% or more, buy on open.

- Most IPOs open near the day's high and close near the day low.


Conventions:

res = resistance
sup = support
IPO or ipo - Initial Public Offering
SL or sl = stoploss (price < cost) - consider exit if price drops 5%-7%, and exit with no questions asked at -10%.
IP or ip = Increase position
RP or rp = Reduce position
LP or lp = lock profit
LPP or lpp = lock profit point (price > cost) - if price rises, move up your LPP accordingly, and sell if it falls to LPP.


BUY OR SELL AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION.

Good Luck

Cut all the bull the trend is your friend anyone that can read a chart and knows anything about risk reward and stops can trade this market .

It may be that not everybody can trade this market so easily, just like not everyone can swim or fly a kite.

Still, as it seems you can, your contributions are invited.

Good point, but if a stock drops 10% after a 10% divi, your net loss on that stock is zero, not the 10% you imply. If it drops 15% with an 8% divi, you're down 7% with another 3% to go before this value advice kicks in.

WS, successful SETters are unlikely to defer their trading habits or ideas or mechanics for any tips or advice in this thread, because their system works, and importantly, it works for them, but as I said to breezer, not everybody can do everything that to some is second nature. The 10% discipline is not my patent but a common measure applied by many, as a means to prevent the possibility of a sharp loss that can wipe out days or weeks or even months of hard work, and doubly so when newbies are in the area. Still, each to his own but I do recall one hopeful at tMF that held LPG all the way from £19.60 to 1.5 PENCE!

I believe the 10% discipline protects against a severe loss, and if I sell at -10%, as I have in the past, I can always buy back if I so wish when it falls further, as I also have, thereby actually gaining to the extent of the further drop...the only loss occurs if the stock rises precisely after you have sold at -10%, which is why Sod's Law was mentioned.

We do not need to list 2 sets of advice, for newbies and the experienced, because firstly the experienced probably will learn little if anything, and then, they can probably contribute far more and better quality advice than I can. This is why I believe it is better to cater to the novice, and hopefully yank just one away from a major loss, while the more experienced can dilute as required.

^ agree, WS.

I made 140% on some stocks even though they dropped 20% at times.

If you daytrade (ie gamble) with the SET (and other markets), you will end up like the locals: taking a lot of risk with little return.

The shorter one tends to hold the higher the risk, generally, and one thing easily overlooked is the spread, which is the equivalent of the zero on roulette, and a silent yet unavoidable 'tax' on both winnings and losses.

True that an experienced traders can make as much on a drop as they can with a similar rise, something I prefer not to get involved in but it can work if you know what you're doing. I have more than once been specifically advised to sell a stock and buy it back later the same day, and mostly would have pocketed a neat profit whilst ending up with the same amount stock I started the day with.


Don't forget NSM, am sitting on >10% which a conservative investor would be delighted with after 2 months, but greed has kicked in...

Originally Posted by keda

Good point, but if a stock drops 10% after a 10% divi, your net loss on that stock is zero, not the 10% you imply.

Dude, I did not imply anything of the sort. To put it simply - the value of a stick is simply the NPV of expected future dividends, so naturally when a company pays dividends the share value will be reduced - this is not exactly rocket science.

My point is simply that whereas someone might take comfort in your 10% rule, it has nothing to do with market economics, and is in fact very bad advise. To claim that this is some kind of universal rule amongst experienced investors or economists is, to put it in academic terms, horse manure.

IMHO, there is only one golden rule when it comes to investing - do not invest more than you can afford to loose.
Everything else is opinions, theories or superstition.

Most of the rest of your post was OK, though, and I am sure you are a successful investor on the SET. The probem is, though that over the last 8-9 years, most investors there have been.

Keda are you a technician or a fundamentalist?

Originally Posted by Whiteshiva

This 10% rule is new to me - absolute bullocks, IMHO! If you have done you research, and are confident a company has potential, an unfounded 10% drop in share price actually makes the stock cheaper to aquire, hence you should consider buying more.

What you need to keep in mind is that share prices often drop even though there is nothing wrong with the firms prospects. Payments of dividends is a good example.

WS: You are clearly experienced and have your own trading/investing principles and habits. Only, I honestly do not understand your comments because I cannot see how in the normal course of trading a stock can drop 10% without dropping 10%. It either drops or it does not, and if it does but on account of a divi, then the value of that divi goes into the plus column, against any fall. Nothing profound in that. Anyway, as to all else being opinions, theories or superstition, if you can run and probably faster than I can, I wouldn't try to advise you on the mechanics of walking, but would be happy to share your experience.

Still, just as I used to drive with my hands at precisely 10 and 2 on the wheel until I passed my test, I can only try to protect those who may be risking money without enough experience to watch out for the pitfalls, by advising them not to leave themselves exposed by more than 10% on a stock. Whenever I mention that 10% discipline, which not only you but other highly experienced people see as an opportunity to average down by buying more, in mind is the sad fcuk who kept buying LPG from £19.60 and down to 1.5p, justifying his faith with the last word, by investing a final heap at around 2p before it leapt some sevenfold to around 14p.

Note that I met SET only last year, and one of my early experiences with reckless endangerment was a buy into TPI, mainly on broker advice, at its high of 16.40 and all the way down to 14.00; then I almost missed out on the new shares because of what I regard as criminal negligence by my broker that could have cost me my allocation, but once resolved it was only the diluted shares and more buying - at 3.50 to 5.00 - that got me out of a hole which could just as easily have gotten deeper. Importantly, I was a newbie, had relied on 'expert' advice, and would not like others to go through what I did.

I agree in a rising market there's little rocket science, and it's likely the past few years has seen many profits turned on SET, though profit other than on paper is not generated in the ether, but likely countered someplace by a loss.

keda, a piece of advice. DO NOT FOLLOW any THAI BROKER Buy Recommendations. They are all trash. It's the best way to lose your money.

Originally Posted by Macha

Keda are you a technician or a fundamentalist?

Um, neither; more a plodder that likes to get it right.

Nice advice for newbies Keda, despite the know-it-alls who are taking swings at you. Makes me almost want to start investing myself.

Anyone can invest given that they have a little bit of common sense and some dosh.

Keda, I'm in SET for years now and always based my investment decisions on fundamental analysis. I'll soon share some of the stories.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

keda, a piece of advice. DO NOT FOLLOW any THAI BROKER Buy Recommendations. They are all trash. It's the best way to lose your money.

If you told me that 18 months ago I would've taken your advice with a pinch of salt because as an intro to their services my broker had been tossing a couple of sweeteners my way...but since then it's been a case of making money despite rather than on their advice.

How they get away with it is beyond me, but TiT and now I DIY online, without any input from them.

Originally Posted by Macha

Keda are you a technician or a fundamentalist?

He is worst, he is a Chartist

Good for you Macha, to be a fundamentalist

Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog

Nice advice for newbies Keda, despite the know-it-alls who are taking swings at you. Makes me almost want to start investing myself.

Last call for NSM...

Originally Posted by keda

Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog

Nice advice for newbies Keda, despite the know-it-alls who are taking swings at you. Makes me almost want to start investing myself.

Last call for NSM...

Can I borrow a few baht until payday?

Originally Posted by keda

How they get away with it is beyond me, but TiT and now I DIY online, without any input from them.

Thats because locals are stupid monkeys when it comes to investing, and will follow whatever crap they are being fed. They are just incredibly naive.

Originally Posted by Marmite the Dog

Nice advice for newbies Keda, despite the know-it-alls who are taking swings at you

The know-it-all do "real" investing, while keda is a speculator. Nothing wrong with that, as they are very much needed, but for newbies it is a dangerous and silly game to play, unless they like to play casino.

Are you a player MtD ?

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Are you a player MtD

It depends upon how charitable Keda is feeling today.

Originally Posted by Macha

Anyone can invest given that they have a little bit of common sense and some dosh.

Keda, I'm in SET for years now and always based my investment decisions on fundamental analysis. I'll soon share some of the stories.

Great to hear that. I started in 1993 with Bangkok Bank's Bualuang OEF, which rose >150% in 2 years, at which time I decided to DIY.

Of those I know very few are prepared to invest and get on with their lives without gluing nose to screen, and with confidence in the strength of fundies. Stories galore no doubt, and hopefully with lessons to learn.

[quote=Butterfly;208679]

Originally Posted by Macha

Keda are you a technician or a fundamentalist?

He is worst, he is a Chartist /quote]

Been called worse.