Thread: French election 2024

According to the exit poll the left has won and has majority together with Macrons party.

Victory speech held immidiately.

Apparently France doesn't do curses.


Far right was predicted a better result

Wow, very unexpected and to my mind a very good outcome. Getting Far right, Far left and Center Left to get things done will be a challenge for Macron but he must be relieved.

Mélenchon refuses to negotiate with Macron coalition

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Morten Top




It may well be that the left-wing coalition "New People's Front" and the centrist coalition "Ensemble" could agree to make life miserable for the right wing in today's election.

But that is where the agreement apparently ends.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is one of the front figures on the left, has no intention of finding compromises with President Macron and his people.

"We refuse to enter into negotiations with his party to make deals, especially after fighting his policies of social abuse and lack of environmental action continuously for seven years," Jean-Luc Mélenchon said, referring to Macron's pension reform.

The left-wing New Popular Front coalition - with Mélenchon - looks set to be the winner of the election, according to exit polls.

But none of the blocs seem to be able to form a majority on their own.

Jean Luc will have only 77 of 577 members of AN

Macron and the same lod Insead Sciemce-Po hegemony will prevail. they'll lure back a mix Ciotti, Beyrou and Glucksman may be swayed by lure of Office, RN may provoke and riot to no aavail the CRS will deal with them.

Good to see the radical right wing votes decline. Voters can be very stupid when they get angry. The rest of Europe and UK should take note!

So basically cheating then

I don't think this is the official result.

France election results 2024: Who is winning across the country – POLITICO

Originally Posted by Bonecollector

So basically cheating then

Reducing 3-way and 4-way contests is not cheating. It's clear these votes were not going to the far right.

The French are rioting now. Just in time for the Olympics.

Originally Posted by DrWilly

The French are rioting now. Just in time for the Olympics.

Was there in June political riots least of CRS worries even pre Gaza the 6 million muslims have murdered many from jewish bakery to beheading teachers, a priest and murdering literally hundreds in Nice Bataclan, C Hebdo Toulouse attacks.

Foolisly IMHO the opening ceremony rather than in a confined to a far easier to control access monitor, scour drains rooftops in one stadium there will be along albeit beautiful rive de la Seine the rivebanks seen by the tourist bateaux mouche

I was with 2 clients who were unbeknowmn to me speaking with Sarkos ex and 3 senior lawyers they and neighbour investment banker , HSBC chiefs and probably finance minister whose home I could see from my Office Bruno Le Maire are all leaving Paris during the games.

The now premier arrondissement 007 of St Germain will be left to the Japanese gals looking for Oscar Wilde,Serge Gainsbourg and Simone de Beauvoir as they queue like lemmings for a 1000 baht cafe creme Aux de Magots,

Yours truly apprecite the daring hello kitty hemlines and impeccable accoutrements and handbags from the terrace of Brasserie Lipp en face. The local apaches pickpockets follow them thru the metro to pick up an iphone or jewellry, hordes of trainees from every ghetto in E pale of europe are expected at the "Festival of Thieves"

Oh a gendarme's lot i not a hippy one!

Originally Posted by Troy

Reducing 3-way and 4-way contests is not cheating.

It's tactical voting, which isn't exactly in the spirit of democracy.

This has been done in France as long as I can remember. Left side and right side both did it.

I think Le Pen got a third of all cast votes, which would have given her a super majority in the UK

ELECTIONS IN FRANCE


Political opponents want to put the French right wing out of influence: 'It's reprehensible'

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Marie Serup Skotte


Politiske modstandere vil saette den franske hojrefloj uden for indflydelse: ‘Det er forkasteligt ‘ | Valg i Frankrig | DR


"People are jubilant that 10 million people who have voted for a party now have no influence. It is close to being reprehensible.

This is what Deadline's journalist Christian Bennike says.

The French right-wing party National Rally and its allies received 32 percent of the vote in Sunday's election. In terms of votes, this makes them the largest party, but due to the French electoral system, they do not get the most seats in parliament, where President Macron and the left want to keep them out of influence.

- It creates a disconnect between parts of the population and the political system. The reason why people vote for the party, in addition to immigration and inequality, is a feeling of not being heard and represented.

According to Bennike, it is an expression of a representative democracy in crisis. He elaborates:

- The liberal media in the West rejoices about this. "Look, the fascists were kept out."

"Of course, it reinforces a narrative that we (i.e. those who vote for the National Rally, ed.) are not the good company, and there is an elite in Paris, and in the deep state, who make sure to keep us out of the barrel," says Christian Bennike

The NR have more seats in parliament than they ever have. The left wing NPF have the most seats and their supporters are celebrating by rioting in the streets. The next few months should be fun to watch. Macron is surely the loser in all this.

Originally Posted by helge

It's tactical voting, which isn't exactly in the spirit of democracy.

This has been done in France as long as I can remember. Left side and right side both did it.

I think Le Pen got a third of all cast votes, which would have given her a super majority in the UK

Tactical voting in the UK is not unheard of, UKIP pulled contestants for Boris and Dems pulled fo labour. Not qiote on the scale of France though.

There is no such thong as a super majority in the UK. It is just media hype taking the US tetm, where it has meaning.

Originally Posted by Troy

There is no such thong

Sacre Bleu

I'm not sure I agree with your reasoning but as a Teddy Bare I like your inclination

Fruitian anal ysis may help , Jum Reich and Lacan for real retentives

Cognitive Behavioural Arsenal may work foursome

Keep drinking Absinthe makes the heart grow wander

A sleight to nouveau poujadistes and those who would suborn the harkis and the large tranche of the hexagone that is from teh maghreb.

A victory for Sciences-Po-Insead and mores of the 4ieme Republique hegemony.Vive Coty!

Originally Posted by Molle

If the election system is shafting you then it is ok to shaft it back.

Withdrawing candidates has minimal effect in a proportional representation election system where if a party get 45% of votes then it also gets 45% of the parliamentary seats, not more not less. Party first, person second.
The US electorate system is flawed and so is the UK first-to-hit-the-post system.

Agree

Originally Posted by Troy

There is no such thong as a super majority in the UK.

I know

A "super duper majority" then

The fifth Republic is like great Danes little understood but rewarding when you investigate.
French retirees and salaried workers have some of the best benefits, entitlements and cuisine

France is one accident from calamity - New Statesman

Would like to read that but can't

Read it this morning sign up you get a few free reads per month I think?
magine last week’s UK election had resulted in a government coalition between Labour, the LibDems, the Greens – and George Galloway. Hard to imagine, you might think. But something similar just happened in France.
Right now, France and Europe are celebrating the defeat of Marine Le Pen and her far-right National Rally in Sunday’s second round of the parliamentary elections. The winner is the left-wing New Popular Front, a group made up of four parties. This is indeed a moment to behold. But be careful what you wish for. The main political result of these elections is not glorious victory of the united front of anti-fascists, but political fragmentation. It is happening everywhere in Europe. The Netherlands is leading the way. There is more fragmentation ahead in Germany too. Fragmentation is the defining European experience of the 2020s.
The new French government will be backed by a coalition of parties that have traditionally stood in opposition to each other. They could encompass some combination of the following: former Gaullists, Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, two other centrist parties, Socialists, Communists, Greens, and potentially also Jean-Luc Melenchon’s La France Insoumise, one of Europe’s most radical parties of the left.
The far-right will now become the official opposition. It maintained its share of the vote of around one third. It is approximately the same level of support the Labour Party won at last week’s general election in the UK.
The right feeds on France’s dysfunctional economic and social model. The French public sector is bloated. Even after the latest reforms, the French pension system is a ticking time bomb. Its economy is stuck with 19th century agriculture, 20th century industry, and 18th century Mercantilism.

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Macron will be remembered both for his insurrectional liberalism that swept him to power in 2017, and his reckless gamble that resulted in the current political mess. At the last presidential election in 2021 the French elected him but denied him the majority he would have needed to implement his agenda. Macron’s party did better than expected on Sunday, but saw the number of its MPs almost halved. The era of Macron is well and truly over. But no other era has started. France is stuck in a long inter-regnum, a twilight zone that carries enhanced political and financial risks.
France’s National Rally had no answers to France’s economic problems either. It is the focus-group version of the hard-right. Its only memorable idea that would have stood any chance of implementation is a cut in VAT on electricity and gas. The more radical stuff, like the repatriation of immigration policy from the EU would have had to wait until the 2027 presidential elections at the earliest.
I don’t want to downplay the impact a far-right victory in the parliamentary elections would have had on France and the rest of the EU. But had Jordan Bardella, the party leader of the National Rally, become prime minister and pursued his silly economic agenda, he would have shared responsibility for the disappointment that lies ahead. The centre and the left succeeded in their tactical alliance to keep the far-right out of power, but there is no unity beyond that, and certainly no focus on economic renewal. Whatever probably you might have attached to a Le Pen presidency in 2027, it will not have diminished with these elections.
The scenario I worry about the most is a sovereign debt crisis between now and 2027. It would be a eurozone crisis on steroids. France falls into the category of countries that are too big to fail, and too big to save.
France is a country with relatively high public sector debt – 110 per cent of annual economic output. The French private sector is in an even worse financial position. As of May this year, the trend in the French public-sector deficit was still rising compared to previous years. Economic growth is low. The dynamic is toxic.
What will keep the rainbow coalition in power is not a joint agenda, but what the Americans call debt-financed pork-barrel spending. This cannot last.
With all this political uncertainty around, I do not think that France will be able to attract much inward investment in the next few years. The next presidential elections in the spring 2027 is within most investors’ time horizons. Would you invest in a country with a forever looming threat of a far-right government that promises to wreck the EU’s single market? Or a government of the far-left with irresponsible fiscal policies?
Less investment will mean less growth, and less fiscal room for manoeuvre, and either more borrowing or more austerity. This is a scenario where France really would need a radical centre, but the centre no longer has the votes.
The general fear had been that a right-wing government would cause a financial crisis. Historically, it has often been the other way round – financial crises giving rise to right-wing governments, as happened in Europe in the 1930s, and Latin America in the 1970s, and again more recently.
The driver of a French financial crisis would be a vicious circle of low growth and rising debt that could leave the government with a stark choice: to default or, more likely, accept a bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund or the EU. Either would be a national humiliation, and a gift for the far-right.
Financial crises have causes and triggers. The deep causes of a French crisis are easy to make out: a rotten economic and social model, unsustainable fiscal policies, and political gridlock. The triggers are harder to predict: it could be a government crisis, another economic shock, or a large bank going broke.
The elections left the country in a position where it is one accident away from calamity. This is Macron’s legacy.