Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

launch a nuclear first strike over an insignificant piece of territory that isn't his in the first place.

I reckon it's no more than rhetoric and the policy has always been "no first strikes".

Does he refer to attack on 'Mother Russia' or the 'new territories' ?


Still; I don't believe anyone is pissing themselves laughing, when threats of nukes are issued.

Not even from a nobody like Meddy.

I see that he talks about strategic nukes. Hmm


It goes without saying that if Ukraine succeed in pushing Russia all the way back to the 2014 borders, Russia will be forced to defend from own territory and Ukraine will ofcourse shoot back.

We'll see

Originally Posted by helge

Does he refer to attack on 'Mother Russia' or the 'new territories' ?

Refers to the office building hit in Moscow. They liken it to 9/11.

Originally Posted by Iceman123

Snubby, - Randy Mott the self confessed Republican activist who produced that bilge is almost as big a tosser as you.

You really do excel at stupidity. That data is freely available by numerous sources, most of which has been geolocated. When do you plan on contributing to the topic? You really should be banned from posting in news topics. Looking at your posting history shows that the only reason you log on to TD is to come to this thread and stalk me, you utter mouth breathing moron.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Unusual for a Republican not to be kissing Russia's arse.

He is a Reagan Republican and a former Colonel in the US Army. He has some excellent analysis of the war.

Originally Posted by helge

I reckon it's no more than rhetoric and the policy has always been "no first strikes".

Ya think?

Russian soldiers may now be able to avoid criminal prosecution if they serve on the frontline in Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported Wednesday, citing a recent ruling by Russia’s Supreme Court.

The new legal precedent was set in a deadly automobile accident case where Corporal Vladislav Ustinov was handed a two-year prison sentence in May 2022 for running over and killing two people.

But instead of being dismissed from the military following his conviction, Ustinov was sent to to fight in Ukraine, where Kommersant says he is still serving.

Russia’s Supreme Court ruled on June 28 that Ustinov no longer poses a threat to society because he is “performing combat tasks in the zone of the special military operation” in Ukraine.

The court also noted that the second-degree felony was Ustinov’s first offense and he admitted his guilt, while he also “voluntarily” compensated damages, Kommersant said.

Russian courts will now be able to cite a defendant’s involvement in military operations as mitigating circumstances and grounds for reviewing sentences, according to Ustinov’s lawyer Sergei Bizyukin.

Days before the Supreme Court ruling, Russian lawmakers approved legislation allowing convicts to clear their criminal records in exchange for joining the country’s depleted military.

Legal experts told Kommersant that Russian courts could now use both the new law and the Supreme Court precedent in Ustinov’s case to free criminally convicted soldiers who serve in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin, who last month admitted to granting pardons for prisoners fighting in Ukraine, signed a law in November allowing the conscription of Russian citizens with unexpunged or outstanding convictions for serious crimes.

Russian Supreme Court Exempts Soldiers Fighting in Ukraine from Criminal Prosecution - The Moscow Times

Originally Posted by bsnub

Russian soldiers may now be able to avoid criminal prosecution if they serve on the frontline in Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported Wednesday, citing a recent ruling by Russia’s Supreme Court.

The new legal precedent was set in a deadly automobile accident case where Corporal Vladislav Ustinov was handed a two-year prison sentence in May 2022 for running over and killing two people.

But instead of being dismissed from the military following his conviction, Ustinov was sent to to fight in Ukraine, where Kommersant says he is still serving.

Russia’s Supreme Court ruled on June 28 that Ustinov no longer poses a threat to society because he is “performing combat tasks in the zone of the special military operation” in Ukraine.

The court also noted that the second-degree felony was Ustinov’s first offense and he admitted his guilt, while he also “voluntarily” compensated damages, Kommersant said.

Russian courts will now be able to cite a defendant’s involvement in military operations as mitigating circumstances and grounds for reviewing sentences, according to Ustinov’s lawyer Sergei Bizyukin.

Days before the Supreme Court ruling, Russian lawmakers approved legislation allowing convicts to clear their criminal records in exchange for joining the country’s depleted military.

Legal experts told Kommersant that Russian courts could now use both the new law and the Supreme Court precedent in Ustinov’s case to free criminally convicted soldiers who serve in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin, who last month admitted to granting pardons for prisoners fighting in Ukraine, signed a law in November allowing the conscription of Russian citizens with unexpunged or outstanding convictions for serious crimes.

Russian Supreme Court Exempts Soldiers Fighting in Ukraine from Criminal Prosecution - The Moscow Times

If that does not show Russian desperation to recruit for the Ukrainian front I dont know what does.
I did read a possible storm shadow hit on a Russian base killing at least 100 to 200 soldiers and injuring another 200 to 300. If true that is a serious dent in one hit.

^ I read a report saying it was a Russian training camp in the Kherson region hit with 5 Himars missiles. There was a video but I didn't see any other reports confirming the strike.

Originally Posted by Hugh Cow

If that does not show Russian desperation to recruit for the Ukrainian front I dont know what does.

Criminals mothers don't complain as much. Putin knows a full mobilization will be his downfall as Russian mothers will come knocking. It's really all he's got. Ukraine just has to keep picking away.

Shaping up to be a big day for the Ukrainians. They got something bigger than the warship down in Novorossiysk...

At least one Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) struck the offshore oil terminal gantry in Novorossiysk, which enables tankers to connect to the oil terminal in the deeper water offshore Ukraine is looking to cripple Russia's fuel supply into the occupied territories

https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/...qlZgT3Cfw&s=09

Originally Posted by helge

Like flying drones into skyscrabers in Moskva, it's nothing more than symbolic and to humiliate Putin.

No significance for the ukranian offensive, but a minor moral boost.

They were government offices, including their digital propaganda offices. Not exactly "no significance".

Originally Posted by helge

he has opened up for "symbolic russian hits".

Russia has been attempting "symbolic hits" since the beginning of the war.

Originally Posted by pickel

They were government offices, including their digital propaganda offices. Not exactly "no significance".

Didn't know that

Originally Posted by pickel

Russia has been attempting "symbolic hits" since the beginning of the war.

News to me.

Haven't heard that they officially went for "symbolic" targets.

If so the ukranian parliament would be rubble today.

Still; Elensky declared the "symbolic" war.

Hubris, but what does he care.

Originally Posted by helge

Smells of desperation to me.

You really have no idea how wars are fought.

Originally Posted by helge

If so the ukranian parliament would be rubble today.

Riiight.

Originally Posted by helge

Like flying drones into skyscrabers in Moskva, it's nothing more than symbolic and to humiliate Putin.

No significance for the ukranian offensive, but a minor moral boost.

I think it's a little more than that. It brings the war to the Russian people who are largely unaffected and can add pressure in stopping the war.

Ukrainian drone strikes are bringing the war home to Russia. What does it mean for the conflict?


Ukrainian drone strikes taking place inside Russia once seemed an unthinkable prospect. But such attacks have become an increasingly common feature of Moscow’s war – with an emboldened Kyiv warning that more will come.

A string of drone strikes have peppered Russian cities including Moscow throughout the summer. Friday saw one of the most dramatic yet – sea drones targeted a major Russian port hundreds of miles from Ukrainian-held territory, leaving a warship listing.

They have distracted from a Ukrainian counteroffensive that is yet to produce tangible results on the battlefield, and brought the war home to Russia.

But they are not without risk for Kyiv, which is attempting to seize the front foot in the war while maintaining relations with Western nations wary of any hint of escalation.
Here’s what you need to know.

A series of strikes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned last week that war is “gradually returning” to Russia, after the latest in a series of drone attacks to take place inside the country that Moscow has pinned on Kyiv.

Last weekend’s incidents saw buildings in Moscow targeted by drones. On Tuesday, a drone struck the same skyscraper in Moscow that was hit on Sunday.

It followed two similar attempted attacks that were reported by Russian officials earlier in July, and numerous such incidents in June. In May, an apparent drone attack above the Kremlin led to dramatic images of blasts in the skies above the seat of Russian power.

Ukraine has typically not taken direct responsibility for the attacks, though its responses have become more bullish in recent weeks. “The distance and deniability between Kyiv and these attacks is significantly less,” Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told CNN. “There now seems to be almost a tacit recognition that it was (them).”

Ukrainian Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, whose Digital Transformation Ministry oversees the country’s “Army of Drones” procurement plan, had said there would be more drone strikes to come as Kyiv ramps up its parallel summer counteroffensive aimed at pushing Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory.

Limited but effective weapon systems

It is difficult to establish exactly which weapons systems are being used in the attacks, and precisely which buildings are being targeted, with both the Russian and Ukrainian sides refusing to be drawn on the details of the incidents.

But there are clearly vast differences between these attacks, which are limited in scope, have caused few casualties and have not been aimed towards residential buildings, with those that Moscow has launched indiscriminately at Ukrainian population centers.

“Whether or not they’re actually arriving on their intended targets, the targets do seem to be buildings that are linked with the prosecution of the war in Ukraine,” Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House and the author of books on Russia’s invasion and foreign policy, told CNN. “In that respect, it’s a very different approach to what we’ve seen in Russia, with indiscriminate terror attacks.”

Giles notes there is “an open question of exactly how Ukraine is doing the attacks.” But the strikes have “shown up the incapacity of Russia’s defenses,” he added.
The one-way unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that have seemingly been launched “carry a pretty small warhead and they’ve been used in small numbers, so in terms of direct military affect, it’s limited to put it mildly,” said Barrie.

“The kinds of systems that Ukraine is using are simple, comparatively speaking, but for their purpose they’re effective,” Barrie added.

Crucially, there is no suggestion that the weapons have been donated by the West. “These are systems (Ukraine) can manufacture themselves,” Barrie said,allowing Kyiv to send military messages to the Russian people alongside its defensive war at home, which NATO nations have been supporting with military aid.

“It’s fundamentally about showing that Moscow is not out of reach,” Barrie said.

Bringing the war home to Russia

Kyiv will happily accept the limited military impact of the drone attacks, because the strikes play a far more important role in the war.

“Ukraine has identified that Russian popular opinion and attitudes to the war is one of the key areas that they need to target in order to bring the war to an end,” Giles said. “As long as Russia can pretend that the war is something that happens elsewhere, nothing is going to dent that popular support.”

Ukrainian officials have openly discussed the propaganda element of the strikes. Yurii Ihnat, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force, said the latest drone attacks on Moscow were aimed at impacting Russians who, since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, felt the war was distant.

“There’s always something flying in Russia, as well as in Moscow. Now the war is affecting those who were not concerned,” he said. “No matter how the Russian authorities would like to turn a blind eye on this by saying they have intercepted everything … something does hit.”

Early signals suggest that the recent attacks have caused unrest among an already jittery class of military pundits in Russia.

Noting criticisms from at least one prominent military blogger that Russia had not secured buildings against such attacks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in a recent update that “Russian authorities will likely struggle to balance the need to quell domestic concern over continuing drone attacks deep within the Russian rear with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued refusal to fully mobilize Russian society for the war and its corresponding consequences.”

‘A startle value’

Assessing public opinion in Russia is notoriously difficult. But anecdotal accounts at least speak to the impact of drone strikes on those in the vicinity of the attacks.

“My friends and I rented an apartment to come here and unwind, and at some point, we heard an explosion – it was like a wave, everyone jumped,” one witness told Reuters after last weekend’s strike in Moscow. “There was a lot of smoke, and you couldn’t see anything. From above, you could see fire.”

“It does seem to be achieving the kind of startle value that you might expect, where Russians are realizing that they are not personally protected from what is being done in Ukraine,” Giles said of the early indications of the strikes’ consequences.

Whether the trend will cause a wider rupturing of Russian support for the war is far from clear.

On the one hand, Putin’s longstanding pretext for the war has relied on baseless claims that Ukraine was a threat to Russian security, and that the so-called special military operation in the country was needed to defend Russia’s interest. Playing up recent attacks could be used to support that argument as the war drags on.

But after almost eighteen months of disorganization and discord, the reality that Russia’s military plans are flailing has been increasingly hard to deny. And Putin’s authority has previously appeared most vulnerable at moments when the impact of the war hits home in Russia – such as during last year’s chaotic military mobilization, and during June’s Wagner rebellion.

In that context, it is easy to see why regular reminders of the conflict inside Russia serve Ukraine’s strategic interests.

The West watches on

For all of its intended propaganda impact, sending drones into Russia is not a risk-free move for Kyiv.

The most immediate consideration is a reprisal; the Kremlin has tended to link attacks on Ukrainian cities to previous strikes on Russia, in a “tit-for-tat” approach intended to cause panic in Ukraine.

But Ukrainians are by now well acquainted to the threat of Russian air bombardments, and there has been no evidence that such assaults have dented determination in the defensive effort there.

A more prominent concern is how the West reacts to such strikes. A year ago, the prospect of Ukraine sending drones into Russia was unthinkable, given the tacit contract between NATO nations and Kyiv that the West would readily support a defensive war, but would be more wary of any actions that draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia.

There is nothing to suggest Ukraine has used NATO-provided weaponry in Russia – doing so is likely a bridge they would not consider crossing at this time – but it has clearly become more emboldened to take the war to Russia. And in return, Western leaders appear generally relaxed about the approach.

“The long-standing prohibition on striking into Russia that has been put in place by the suppliers … was misplaced and misconceived,” Giles said. “For all of this period, it has played Russia’s game by Russia’s rules.”

There does remain a degree of variance in how Western leaders view attacks on Russian territory, with the United States being particularly concerned. “As a general matter we do not support attacks inside of Russia,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters late last month, according to Reuters.

But Kyiv’s confidence and an increasing willingness to chip away at Russian support for the war will likely mean that such strikes remain a feature of the conflict.

“It’s impossible to tell how this will develop but we should certainly expect at least this level of a steady drumbeat of demonstrations of Russian vulnerability to continue,” Giles said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/05/europ...ntl/index.html

Originally Posted by bsnub

What does it mean for the conflict?

It means the same thing Russian attacks on Ukraine mean. Kill and injure the citizens of your enemy with the intent to reduce support for the war.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, AUGUST 5, 2023


Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil tanker on August 4 with a naval drone in the second attack on Russian ships in the Black Sea in two consecutive days.


Ukrainian officials issued a notice to mariners that Ukraine may strike vessels near Russia’s Black Sea ports – a measured response to continued Russian strikes against Odesa – Ukraine's main port – since July 17.


Ukrainian naval strikes are likely part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations.


Ukrainian forces continue to draw Russian forces to the Bakhmut area and fix them there despite a slower tempo of Ukrainian operations there.


Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in southern Ukraine on August 5, part of a continuing pattern of limited Ukrainian ground attacks accompanying Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics and headquarters in rear areas.


Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine.


Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, along the Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.


Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced along the Svatove-Kremmina line.


Pardoned Wagner Group convict fighters continue to increase recidivism rates in Russia.


Russian officials continue to transport Ukrainian children from occupied regions to Russia under the guise of summer vacations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War

With a hypersonic missile slung under its belly, a Russian MiG-31K bomber roared into the air from Savasleyka airbase, 180 miles east of Moscow. It was less than 24 hours after suspected Ukrainian drones had struck at the Kremlin, and the pilot had orders to exact revenge.The jet dropped its load as it raced towards the Ukrainian border. A short fall, blaze of flame and trail of smoke later, the Kinzhal, or Dagger, was arching towards the atmosphere in the direction of Kyiv. Ukrainian air defence command had only minutes to stop the Mach 10 ballistic missile from striking the seat of President Zelensky’s government.

“We have an air situation tablet and when there is an inbound ballistic missile, a computer immediately registers it and draws a zone where it is supposed to hit,” a lieutenant colonel in the capital’s air defence command said in his first interview with international media. The Times has agreed not to publish his name to protect his relatives in occupied territory.

“It calculates its target based on its trajectory. The system drew the centre of the circle exactly over the Maidan — they were targeting the government district precisely.”

President Putin described the weapon as “unstoppable”, yet it had never encountered American Patriot surface-to-air missiles, gifted to the Ukrainians just weeks before the May 4 attack. The Patriot battery’s automated systems engaged the $10 million weapon with their own missiles and within seconds the instrument of Putin’s wrath was reduced to shrapnel.

Ukraine now has more than two Patriot batteries which have revolutionised its air defences and breathed new life into the embattled capital, defeating a series of attacks designed to wipe them out with no losses. Ukraine has even been able to dispatch a roving battery north to the border, where it surprised the Kremlin by shooting down five aircraft over Russian airspace in a single day, then south to support the counteroffensive.

“Around Kyiv we now have the most powerful air defence system in the world. And in fact throughout history,” the colonel said, claiming 215 Russian missile and drone intercepts over Kyiv in May and June alone. “It’s Patriots, it’s Nasams, it’s German Iris, S-300, it’s French Crotale. The Russians have realised that banging your head into the wall where it’s thickest is pointless.”

British ingenuity is also playing a role in the city’s defences, the colonel revealed. The Ministry of Defence has supplied several Supacat trucks rigged by British engineers to fire advanced short-range air-to-air missiles (Asraam). They are deployed primarily to intercept swarms of Russia’s Iranian-supplied Shahed suicide drones, but some of the systems are also supporting Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

The high-mobility vehicles can enter an area where Russian attack helicopters are operating, shoot and move away. Unlike other systems like Starstreak, the Asraam do not require a line of sight and can lock onto targets themselves if fired into their vicinity.

Despite the array of advanced weaponry in Ukraine’s arsenal, the colonel warned that Kyiv would again be vulnerable this winter unless western partners drastically increased weapons production and urgently sent older, mothballed systems to Ukraine.

“You can’t plan a war with an annual production of 150-160 Patriot missiles. We fired those in a month,” he said, sounding the alarm that his men were running out of ammunition. “If we wait until autumn, until mid-October, they will hit the energy infrastructure again. This is a certainty. This winter will be even more difficult than the previous one.”

He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.”

In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures.

“If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.

Without more missiles, his forces would be unable to protect those millions of people from sub-zero temperatures this winter, he argued, unleashing a new wave of Ukrainian refugees westwards toward the UK and the EU.

The colonel accused some countries in the West of failing to grasp the nature of Putin’s threat to Europe and the response required. He said he had been told by western officials his air defence requirements were “too expensive”.

“The Baltic states are the people who really understand. They give everything they can give, because they realise that if we don’t endure, then they will definitely not endure. You fight, we give, that’s it. The Poles are very good. The Scandinavian countries helped a lot, which is not publicised. The Finns, the Swedes, the Norwegians, the Danes, the British, but the rest of the world is very hard. I had an experience with the French, when they didn’t understand, they said ‘Why don’t you surrender?’ They asked that directly, ‘why don’t you give up?’ ”

The shortage of missile supplies is also threatening to derail Ukraine’s counteroffensive, he added, saying the army had run out of munitions needed to dislodge the Russians at the end of May, forcing troops to “storm fortified points head-on”.

The colonel accused politicians of counting coins over lives and considering only the value of weapons provided rather than weighing it against the cost of storing, maintaining or destroying weapons approaching obsoletion.

“We received Nasams rockets produced in 1994. In 2024, they will reach their service life limit. The disposal of an Amraam AIM-120B missile is $26,000 to $28,000. It’s easier to launch it, give it to us. Give us these missiles, we will use them,” he said.

“I talk to the military, the Americans, the British. They understand us, they themselves can’t understand why they gave us 400 M113 APCs when they have 6,000 idling. It doesn’t cost anything. It’s already just standing there. It’s going to be scrapped. It has to be maintained or decommissioned.”

The Americans have 1,100 Patriot launchers, with 40 older PAC-2 batteries in permanent storage that could completely protect Ukraine from Russian missiles, he said.

“They’ve already been paid for by the grandmothers of current US citizens. You either have them sitting around rotting away or you give them to us, we’ll use them somehow,” he added.

The Russians have adapted their tactics to avoid Patriot batteries, he said, focusing on striking cities far from the capital, such as Odesa, which are not yet covered. They are also upgrading old missiles with advanced technology and radar-absorbent skins. In recent weeks Moscow’s focus has been trying to take out the Ukrainian airfields from where British Storm Shadow missiles are launched, hitting command and logistical centres deep inside occupied territory.

“The strikes on airfields are a tribute to Storm Shadow. Thank you very much, UK, because they really proved to be very effective. With Storm Shadow, you launch a trap missile and an anti-radar missile. All at the same time in the same direction. So the Russians, if they try to intercept Storm Shadow, get an anti-radiation missile hit on their radar. Plus traps. Very, very effective stuff.”

The colonel said that Storm Shadows actually had double their published range, some 500km rather than 250km, demonstrating there was no reason for the US to continue holding out on providing Atacms missiles with a similar range, but which can be fired by Himars ground systems already in service with the Ukrainian military.

“There’s a question for American politicians — Atacms. Why don’t you give them to us? Tell me, why not, why not? We already have a thing here that can get further than Atacms,” he said. “Yes, there’s a huge price to fighting Russia, a country with a military budget greater than our state budget. We’re willing to pay for it — with our lives. If anyone thinks money is more important than our lives, please say so. Don’t make promises and then give us the bare minimum. Say it now and we won’t count on you.”

How US Patriot defences are reducing ‘unstoppable’ Russian missiles to shrapnel

What a feeling of relief that hypersonic missiles can be stopped.

Originally Posted by misskit

Senior officials from reportedly 40 countries, including the US, China, and India, began talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 aimed at drafting a set of key principles to guide the future settlement of the war in Ukraine.

It would be nice to get a settlement to this conflict, but it is still early days. These talks didn't include Russia, but at least China and India were involved.

Originally Posted by Troy

It would be nice to get a settlement to this conflict, but it is still early days. These talks didn't include Russia, but at least China and India were involved.

Principle 1: Get the fuck of Ukraine, you high-heeled war criminal wanker.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

Principle 1: Get the fuck of Ukraine, you high-heeled war criminal wanker.

The only acceptable option.

^ I don't think you or snubby will be invited to any talks.