Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by Norton

True but air to ground strikes on advancing troops more effective than same on dug in defensive troops.

There are very few air strikes in the southern area of operations, a big reason why is that IRIS-T is deployed down there, secondly is that the ruzzians have to fly a long ways to strike targets there as they are coming from inside ruzzia itself. Most of the ruzzian air activity is taking place in the east oddly enough on dug in defensive troops.

Originally Posted by pickel

Russia's artillery capabilities are being weakened

In a big way of late, as many as 20-30 artillery pieces a day. The ruzzians can not sustain that level of attrition for long, and it should be noted that HIMARS are being used as counter-battery fire down south a lot more than earlier in the war.

Originally Posted by bsnub

There are very few air strikes in the southern area of operations, a big reason why is that IRIS-T is deployed down there, secondly is that the ruzzians have to fly a long ways to strike targets there as they are coming from inside ruzzia itself. Most of the ruzzian air activity is taking place in the east oddly enough on dug in defensive troops.

There are posted videos on twitter showing Ukraine troops in the open and subject to air attack. I think Norton's comment is in respect to the videos. I thought they were taken on the Southern front but the may have been in the Bakhmut area.

Originally Posted by bsnub

In a big way of late, as many as 20-30 artillery pieces a day. The ruzzians can not sustain that level of attrition for long,

I think the figures are a little optimistic but it certainly explains the recent dissent in the commanders on the front line towards the upper military command and politicians.


Still a long way to go in this war, especially if the aim is to take back control of the whole of Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Troy

I think Norton's comment is in respect to the videos. I thought they were taken on the Southern front but the may have been in the Bakhmut area.

Yes, Bakmut is where the ruzzian jets are most active. If you can remember back to when the ruzzians still controlled Kherson, they were not flying jets then either, so it has been a long time since they were very active in the south. The ruzzian air force has been completely ineffective in this war.

Originally Posted by Troy

it certainly explains the recent dissent in the commanders on the front line towards the upper military command and politicians.

Just posted by the ISW on twitter...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...20706297815040

Russian defenses in Ukraine are 'likely brittle' as they lack the reserves to relieve frontline troops, think tank says

Russian defenses in Ukraine are "likely brittle" amid the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to a think tank.

In an update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Institute for the Study of War said its analysis was supported by the recent dismissal of top Russian general Major General Ivan Popov, who said he was removed from his position after raising questions about mass Russian casualties from Ukrainian artillery and a lack of support for Russian forces.

Popov reportedly claimed that he had appealed to his superiors to rotate troops and relieve those who had fought on the frontlines for a long time.

The ISW said Popov's comments reinforced their previous assessments and indicated that rotations and reinforcements are needed to sustain Russian defenses in western Zaporizhzhia. It also noted that Russia's lack of reserve troops meant Popov's appeal was likely futile from the outset.

The think tank said that without any reserves to rotate in, Russian forces would have to rely on "already degraded forces" in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough.

It added that the high rate of Russian casualties from artillery fire was likely a result of a Ukrainian effort to wear down Russian forces in the south of the country.

Ukraine launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive to take back territory occupied by Russia in early June, marking a critical juncture in the war.

So far, reports on the counteroffensive's success have been mixed, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitting that the efforts have been "slower than desired."

However, Ukraine appears to be making incremental gains, and it has made progress in Bakhmut and slow advances in Zaporizhzhia and eastern Donetsk, the BBC reported.

On Saturday, the commander of Ukrainian forces in the south, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said his troops were "systematically moving the enemy out of their positions" in his latest update on the counteroffensive, per Sky News.

Russian Defenses in Ukraine Are 'Likely Brittle,' Think Tank Says

Military blogger Igor Girkin has delivered another scathing assessment of Russia's battlefield chances in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv's forces could break through in their counteroffensive on the southern front.The former commander, also known as Strelkov, played a key role in the war in Ukraine's Donbas region from 2014. He has repeatedly condemned Russia's military high command during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which he supports.

In a video post on his Telegram channel tweeted by War Translated, Girkin lamented how in some directions, Russian troop levels were only at 70 percent of what they ought to be, while in other areas of the most fierce battles "it is significantly less."

While he said this was better than troop levels at the end of last summer "when 20 percent staffing of units was considered normal," Russian losses were not being replenished by reinforcements and reservists from the rear.

"If urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia and it will be then very difficult to stop them," Girkin said.

Ukraine has admitted that its progress in the counteroffensive which started on June 6 has been slow. The deep defenses Russia has dug along the 600-mile front line are making it difficult for Kyiv's forces.

However, Girkin believes that even this line would not stop Ukrainian troops if there were not enough trained and properly equipped Russian soldiers.

"If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy," he said, adding that the main question is whether Ukraine's forces can get through Russian defenses within two to three weeks, all the while, "exchanging their soldiers for ours."

Girkin then went on to accuse the head of Russia's command in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, of not adequately preparing and equipping reserves and that transferring troops to the front posed the danger of leaving other areas exposed.

"These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy."

Ukraine Has Chance to Break Through Russia's Exhausted Troops: Igor Girkin

Girkins speech...

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...34950907965441

Originally Posted by bsnub

Igor Girkin

Another war crime nutter

Originally Posted by bsnub

The former commander, also known as Strelkov, played a key role in the war in Ukraine's Donbas region from 2014.

There is quite a bit more on his CV than that.

Not even the russian Donbas nationalists, had any use for him after the Malaysia Flight 17 disaster

Originally Posted by helge

Not even the russian Donbas nationalists, had any use for him after the Malaysia Flight 17 disaster

If you followed the MF-17 thread here you would recall that Sabang, skiddy and Ohdoh all claimed that it was Ukraine that shot down the plane.

I ofcourse had my doubts

( still; pick your prophets with due diligence)

Traffic on the strategic Kerch bridge that connects occupied Crimea with Russia was brought to a halt in the early hours of Monday morning after Moscow said a section of the overland crossing was attacked by two Ukrainian drones.

The bridge, which provides a crucial overland supply route for troops, weapons and fuel to support Russia’s forces in southern Ukraine, is important both practically and symbolically to President Vladimir Putin, who opened it personally in 2018. The bridge was the target of an attack during Ukraine’s counteroffensive last October.

Ukraine’s security services published a cryptic poem in which it appeared to claim responsibility for Monday’s incident. “Nightingale, my dear brother; The bridge has gone to sleep again; Once … twice!” the SBU wrote, adding: “P.S. The music is folk. The words are by the Security Service of Ukraine.” Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar recently acknowledged Kyiv’s forces were behind last October’s attack on the Kerch bridge.

According to a statement published by Russia’s state-run TASS news agency and attributed to the press service of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, an investigation found that “one of the sections of the Crimean bridge was damaged as a result of a terrorist act committed by Ukrainian special services. Two civilians — a man and a woman traveling in a passenger car on the bridge — were killed.”

The statement added that the attack was carried out by two drones at 3:05 a.m. local time, with the road surface damaged.

Locals were asked to “refrain from traveling across the Crimean bridge” on Monday and to “choose an alternative land route,” the Russia-installed governor of Crimea Sergei Aksyonov said on Telegram, adding that “an emergency situation” had occurred at the bridge’s 145th pillar.

Road traffic has been suspended, while boat and train traffic was to resume at 9 a.m. local time (8 a.m. CET), Aksyonov said.

Locals reported hearing explosions in the area, according to accounts on Telegram.

Monday’s incident came the day the Black Sea grain deal, which allows the safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports, is due to expire, with Moscow indicating it will not extend it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/kerc...a-war-ukraine/

I guess the ukranian civil population knows what to pack and where to spend the night.

Putin might be somewhat dissapointed with this

That'll buff out...

...they need to severely damage the rail connection for effective disruption of supply. However, as a symbolic link to the end of the grain deal, it made a point.

So how's it going snubby, who's winning? When's it all over?

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

who's winning?

Ukraine.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

When's it all over?

When the 1991 borders are restored.

Dream on Snubby.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

So how's it going snubby, who's winning? When's it all over?

Originally Posted by bsnub

When the 1991 borders are restored.

That's the goal for Ukraine alright.

The west want it to continiue for a while longer than that

Originally Posted by bsnub

Ukraine.

Ukraine doing OK at the moment ?

Comical Ali

RIGA, Latvia — Russian authorities on Friday detained Igor Girkin, a former Russian commander in Ukraine and prominent war blogger, reportedly on charges of promoting extremism — marking the first time Moscow has taken action against a fervent supporter of the war in Ukraine but one who voiced loud criticism of Russian leaders and their often botched military strategy.

Criticizing the war and the military is illegal in Russia, and authorities have cracked down mercilessly on those expressing antiwar views, including schoolchildren. But Russian law enforcement has ignored fierce, often fiery, criticism from pro-war hawks who have lambasted battlefield decisions, decried repeated military setbacks and demanded harsher attacks on Ukraine.

Girkin, who is also known by his nom de guerre Igor Strelkov, is an ex-officer of the Federal Security Service, or FSB. He played a role in Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 and then served as a commander in Russian-controlled areas of Donbas in eastern Ukraine, where he helped foment a separatist war and was accused of extrajudicial killings.

In November, Girkin and two co-defendants were convicted by a court in the Netherlands of murder in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014, an attack that killed all 298 passengers and crew members aboard. Russia had shielded Girkin from extradition in that case.

Now, however, Girkin is being accused of “public calls for extremist activities” online, Russian state news agencies reported. On Friday evening, he appeared in a Moscow court at a pretrial hearing where investigators asked that he be jailed for two months.

Girkin’s wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, first reported the news of her husband’s detention on his Telegram blog, which has nearly a million subscribers, saying that officers entered their apartment on Friday morning and “took him away to an unknown location.”

Girkin’s supporters, in a statement on his blog, linked the detention to his criticism of how Russia runs its war in Ukraine and to his demands for accountability after the short-lived mutiny staged by the Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin in late June.

“Recently, after the events of June 24 of this year, Igor consistently sought condemnation at the state level of the actions of an illegal armed group — PMC ‘Wagner’ and the activities of its leader Prigozhin, and received open threats for this,” the statement said. “We believe that today’s detention undermines the confidence of the country’s population in law enforcement agencies and view it as a continuation of the dishonest fight against Igor that has extremely negative consequences for the stability of the country amid the special military operation,” the statement added, using the Kremlin’s euphemism for the war.

Prigozhin’s rebellion, in which several Russian military aircraft were shot down and a convoy of Wagner fighters with heavy weaponry made a brief “march on Moscow” until Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko helped broker a deal to call it off, has rattled Russia’s “patriotic” camp — a group of outspoken commentators, bloggers and former military officers that the Kremlin had permitted to criticize the military, apparently because of the group’s relentless support for the war overall.

Many in that group have called on Putin to punish Prigozhin for destabilizing society, and they were outraged when the Russian leader allowed Prigozhin and Wagner to go free. Others have suggested that Prigozhin was justified in his criticism of the country’s top military brass and their attempts to absorb the mercenary group, which has been lauded as one of Russia’s more efficient units, while the regular army is often viewed as dysfunctional.

In addition to permitting their criticism, Putin even granted some top pro-war commentators several personal meetings to hear their grievances. But the case against Girkin signals that the Kremlin’s tolerance may have worn out.

Girkin, on his blog, had called Prigozhin a traitor and ridiculed Putin’s decision to meet with him and other Wagner commanders just days after the mutiny, suggesting it was a sign of weakness on the president’s part.

“Those who remained under the command of the bastard and traitor Prigozhin now, after the rebellion and the murder of the Russian military … are traitors because they have shown their willingness to kill anyone, anywhere, on the orders of those who pay them money,” Girkin wrote in early July.

Girkin also directly accused Putin of indecisiveness, and he criticized the president’s increasing absence from the public eye and the country’s poor performance on the battlefield.

“Wretched whining, complaints about partners … for a very, very long time, the president’s rhetoric does not even remotely resemble the traditional ‘male standard’ … just a lot of chatter, little action and total lack of any will to take responsibly for failures,” Girkin wrote on July 18. “This is the style of ‘late Putin,’ since around 2014 along with baseless boastful lies.”

Just a half an hour later, Girkin followed with another post suggesting that Putin step down, something that has landed Russian opposition figures in prison and could be viewed under Russian law as “calls for extremism.”

“The country will not survive another six years with this cowardly mediocrity in power,” Girkin wrote. “And the only useful thing he could do ‘before the end’ is to ensure the transfer of power to someone truly capable and responsible.”

Girkin, a self-described Russian nationalist, is a former FSB colonel who helped lead Moscow’s incursion into eastern Ukraine nine years ago.

In 2014, Girkin sneaked into the Ukrainian city Sloviansk with a few dozen masked men, seizing government buildings and a police station. Shortly after, Girkin declared himself “supreme commander” of the Donetsk People’s Republic, raising the Russian flag to mark the puppet state’s allegiance to Moscow. He was soon ousted from Sloviansk by Ukrainian forces but accused the Kremlin of not being decisive enough to send reinforcements.

During his time in Donetsk, Girkin allegedly was involved in the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. After a Dutch-led investigation, a court in the Netherlands convicted Girkin and two other men for allegedly playing a role in bringing a Buk surface-to-air missile system from a Russian base into Ukraine and putting it in position. They were sentenced, in absentia, to life in prison.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...tions-ukraine/

^
If you're gonna talk like he does, in Russia, you should probably have your own private army. Surprised it took this long, to be honest.

If it was not for American microprocessors, the ruzzians would not be able to make the missiles that it fires on civilians.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that Ukraine has already retaken about 50 percent of the territory seized by Russia and that the counteroffensive is still in its “relatively early days."

Ukraine counter-offensive too slow because they’re not doing it properly, Germans claim

Senior British military officials dismiss claims in leaked report by Bundeswehr because they just don't ‘ring true’


By
James Jackson
IN BERLIN and
Danielle Sheridan,
DEFENCE EDITOR
25 July 2023 • 9:12pm
Ukrainian soldier fires artillery in the direction of Bakhmut
Ukrainian leaders have admitted that the counter-offensive has made only limited advances CREDIT: Anadolu Agency
Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing to make progress because its army is not fully implementing the training it has received from the West, according to a leaked German intelligence assessment.


Kyiv is spreading its troops out too thinly across the 1,000km front line and attacking in units composed of too few soldiers, according to the confidential document obtained by the German Bild newspaper.


Ukrainian soldiers trained by the West are showing “great learning success” but they are let down by commanders who have not been through the boot camps, it adds.


It states that the Ukrainian military favours promoting soldiers with combat experience over those who have received NATO-standard instruction.


Commanders can therefore show “considerable deficiencies in leadership” which lead to “wrong and dangerous decisions”, the military document claims.


tmg.video.placeholder.alt OuZeuLBQvvM
The Ukrainian armed forces had not responded to the report on Tuesday night.


Senior British military figures criticised the leak and its conclusions, saying it did not “help” anyone to “unduly criticise Ukraine”.


According to the Bundeswehr assessment, Ukraine is sacrificing its advantage in manpower by attacking in units of between 10 and 30 men, insufficient to break through Russian lines. It adds that the small unit sizes increase the risk of friendly fire and fail to group together enough Western-trained soldiers to be operationally effective.


A senior defence source told The Telegraph: “There have obviously been instances where the Ukrainians have done things differently, but I would argue that they have tried to implement their Western training beyond what might be deemed tolerable given certain tactical situations.”


“They [Ukrainians] certainly have plenty of problems, but I don’t think this German accusation is one of them,” the defence source said.


Ukrainian soldier taking cover at a front line position
The German ministry of defence says Ukrainian troops are spreading themselves out too thinly across the front line CREDIT: FINBARR O'REILLY/NYTNS/Redux/eyevine
“The idea that they are abusing the formations we have trained them in doesn’t ring true to me.”


Lord Dannatt, the former head of the British Army, said: “I’ve seen criticism that the West has not delivered all anti-mine equipment as promised, so we need to be patient with Ukraine and encourage and support them to do their best.”


Limited advances
Ukrainian leaders have admitted that the offensive has made only limited advances, with a dense network of Russian mines impending any breakthrough.


However, Volodymyr Zelensky last week said the offensive was set to “gain pace” shortly amid growing alarm in Western capitals. Around 100 square miles of territory and nine villages have been recaptured since the launch of the push almost two months ago.


The commander of Ukraine’s army, General Valery Zaluzhny, last month said Western pressure to attack faster “p----- me off”.


Ukrainian soldiers transport shells into a tank on the Bakhmut front line
The report criticises the Ukrainian army for not properly implementing their Western training in the structure of their officer corps CREDIT: Anadolu Agency
Many in Kyiv’s army feel they are being pressured to sacrifice large numbers of men without sufficient weaponry to protect them, such as F-16 jets and long-range Atacms missiles.


Several Ukraine analysts have noted that Ukraine’s progress is being hampered by a failure to implement “combined arms warfare” at a large scale, where infantry, armoured vehicles and artillery operate as one.


The German report claimed that Western-trained soldiers understood “the operational principles of fire and movement” but when they returned to Ukraine would often be commanded by officers who used different military tactics. German military leaders also express frustration at experienced fighters being promoted over Western-trained troops, with the report claiming “combat experience does not mean that the soldier is a good leader in combat”.


Sergei Sumlenny, founder of the Berlin-based European Resilience Initiative Centre think tank, dismissed the report as “typical German arrogance”.


Mr Sumlenny said: “The belief of the Bundeswehr is that the German-trained soldiers are so much better than everyone that they can be better officers than experienced Ukrainian soldiers. A German certificate doesn’t make you a better soldier.”


tmg.video.placeholder.alt W_YzyO0ij-s
Although Berlin is one of Kyiv’s largest supporters in terms of military equipment, Mr Zelensky has regularly clashed with Chancellor Olaf Scholz over a perceived reluctance to upset Russia.


Britain has trained nearly 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers since Russia invaded Ukraine last year in Operation Interflex. A further 20,000 are set to receive training by the end of the year, with a five-week camp teaching battlefield casualty drills, arms and weapon handling, patrol tactics and counter-drone measures.


Only 11 per cent of the soldiers trained by the UK have any military experience. One British soldier involved in the training of Ukrainian recruits in the UK insisted the troops were “alright”.


He told The Telegraph: “They are OK in training and what their chain of command chooses to do with them over there is their shout.”