Thread: Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

Pheu Thai wants to win Bangkok's 22 House seats

4 May 2011


BREAKINGNEWS »


The Pheu Thai Party is projected to outpace the Democrats and win 22 of the 33 House seats up for grabs in Bangkok, party leader Yongyuth Wichaidit said on Wednesday.

"Pheu Thai is confident for a victory in Bangkok," he said.

The campaign for the capital will be under the slogan "Returning happiness and increasing convenience for Khrungthep residents", he said.


The Nation

Radio Australia:Asia Pacific:Story:Thai government accused of vote buying

Thai government accused of vote buying

Updated May 4, 2011 22:49:40

The Thai government has been accused of trying to buy votes with its latest spending plans ahead of this year's election.

In a marathon cabinet meeting on Tuesday over 100 proposals were pushed through, ranging from housing subsidies to major rail infrastructure. At the same time the government has announced a delay in naming the election date, which is widely expected by July.

Presenter: Karon Snowdon
Speakers: Andrew Walker, senior fellow, Australian National University; Dr Somjai Phagaphasvivat, politics professor, Thammasat University

• Listen:
• Windows Media

SNOWDON: Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has faced a lot of problems in his two and a half years in office. The global financial crisis, the worst fighting on the Cambodian border in two decades, and political protests last year in which at least 90 died under his watch. Now he's being accused of invoking 'Thaksinomics' -- the style of vote-buying spending measures much favoured by his most famous predecessor, Thaksin Shinawatra. But no-one should be surprised says Andrew Walker, from the Australian National University.

WALKER: Well this government in Thailand has got a lot of electoral ground to try to make up. They face very formidable opponents in terms of the allies of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who remains very popular in Thailand. So what we're seeing is the current government making pretty much a last minute pitch to the electorate. One of the legacies of Thaksin is that he's very much changed the culture of Thai politics and popularism has become flavour of the month.

SNOWDON: The news media and some business groups have come done hard in criticising what they see as short term spending in the several billion dollars allocated to mostly low and middle income earners. There's to be a home mortgage subsidy scheme for first home buyers, some small business loans and new spending for specific education and health projects. Political analyst Dr Somjai Phagaphasvivat says unlike 'Thaksinomics', the handouts aren't aimed at locking in long term political loyalty. Rather they are for short term electoral gain but while they won't blow out the budget, they'll do little to make the Thai economy more competitive.

SOMJAI: If you look at this package most of them are short term, that is for the political benefit because most of them try to reduce the expense. But they don't boost competitiveness amongst the Thai people, that is lacking from this package.

SNOWDON: The country remains deeply divided a year after opposition rallies by the Red Shirt movement and main opposition, which wants a pardon for self- exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin. Professor Somchai from Thammasat University believes the polarisation of Thailand will worsen after the election.

SOMCHAI: Because a number of Thais, I would suspect a majority wont accept a platform based on a lack of the rule of law. For this reason I expect the polarisation after the election would increase and would not discount the possibility of even a violent confrontation.

SNOWDON: The dissolving of parliament ahead of setting the election date was expected this week, but has been delayed. Andrew Walker says most commentators still expect the election to be held by July and constitutionally it must beheld by the end of the year -- but nothing is certain yet.

WALKER: This is Thai politics and nothing can be relied on here. And we need to remember that there are some powerful forces in Thailand that would rather that an election doesn't go ahead because they're worried that the political allies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will win the election. In particular there's many very powerful and very senior people in the army who would rather not have an election and some people have speculated that the army might try to escalate this border conflict they're having with Cambodia so that could be used as a pretext for delaying the election.

SNOWDON: Would that be Prime Minister Abhisit's view do you believe?

WALKER: Look its very hard to predict what Prime Minister Abhisit's view is. He's obviously very concerned his party wont win the election. He's got some hopes of being able to cobble together a coalition government after the election. But the fact is that Abhisit is caught between some very powerful players. <redacted>

http://www.tannetwork.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1043431



Misleading Polls

UPDATE : 4 May 2011

As the general election is drawing near, the public could be confused when they hear propaganda-like campaigns being advertised by political parties, particularly the two big ones that claimed they would win the election or win at least 70 percent of House seats to form a single-party government. One party boasted they would grab 200 seats while others hope for 70 to 80. Altogether, more than 500 seats could be won by three major parties while no seats would be left for small and medium parties, which is impossible in reality.

It is doubtful whether the projections made by these political are based on reliable popular surveys. Or they were just made up in hopes of adding value and credibility to themselves just like how stock investors speculate on stock prices. This is because none of the polls conducted by educational institutions according to accepted social research principles have ever suggested that any one political party would win an election by a landslide.

An ABAC Poll survey published in September last year revealed that about half of the respondents would vote for the Democrat Party, 30 percent for the Pheu Thai Party and 16.3 percent for other parties. But the poll was taken several months ago and the public’s views regarding the election could change as circumstances do. The change of heart among voters was evidenced by the recent ABAC Poll survey in March this year which found that only 26.4 percent of respondents would pick the Democrat Party. The Pheu Thai Party followed closely with 25.5 percent. 15.4 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for other parties while as many as 32.7 percent were undecided.

If the poll is anything to go by, that means no political party would sweep the contest.

Surveying public opinions to gauge the popularity of political parties and their candidates ahead of the ballot date is an important activity in a democratic society, but it must be carried out according to accepted academic principles and without any political influence and bias. The result of an election usually does not much differ from that of a poll. So if the poll is conducted by a certain interest group to mislead voters, there will be a problem. Therefore, the electoral regulations give a great focus on polling, with a scrutiny on polls that could be tinged with hidden agendas. Article 53(5) thus prohibits any act aimed at misleading voters about the popularity of a candidate or political party. Penalties for such a violation involve a candidate being disqualified from the election or being banned from political activities for 10 years, while involvement of the party’s executive may result in party dissolution.

Editorial, Thai Rath, Page 3, May 4th, 2011
Translated and rewritten by Wacharapol Isaranont

Please note that the views expressed in our "Analysis" segment are translated from local newspaper articles and do not reflect the views of the Thai-ASEAN News Network.

"An ABAC Poll survey published in September last year revealed "

The words "ABAC Poll" and "revealed" shouldn't be used in the same sentence. Counterintuitive.

Thaksin campaigns for Pheu Thai Party

FUGITIVE PREMIER

Thaksin campaigns for Pheu Thai Party

By Pravit Rojanaphruk
The Nation
Published on May 5, 2011

Deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra, the de-facto leader of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, yesterday promised the Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce that if the party is elected and forms the new government, he will support the development of business owners and boost the purchasing power of workers.

Thaksin spent hours listening and talking to the chamber members through an Internet video link at a Bangkok hotel.

He said measures such as a low-tax regime, sovereign wealth fund, easier visa requirements for tourists and a hike in the minimum wage to Bt300 a day will be a boon to the economy and society. He vowed to make Thailand a trade and travel hub of the region, not unlike Dubai in the Middle East.

He would gradually lower the income tax over two years from 30 per cent to 20 per cent, arguing that this, along with the higher minimum wage, would lead to stronger domestic purchasing power and higher value-added tax receipts through larger and larger cycles of consumption.

"Today, countries with problems are those with high taxes," said Thaksin, who resides in Dubai after being convicted in Thailand.

While trying to promise whatever business leaders from the chambers asked for, Thaksin mentioned his pet project - developing a city on reclaimed land somewhere on the Gulf of Thailand that would be about half the size of Phuket or 200,000 rai.

The project would be self-supporting because half of the land would be put up for sale at Bt12,500 per square wah while the other half would be occupied by government buildings, public parks, beach roads, a wind farm to generate electricity and more.

"Whatever we do not have or cannot build in Bangkok will be constructed there," he said.

Other ideas floated by Thaksin in an attempt to win support from the members of the Chamber of Commerce were

- Make Don Mueang an airport hub for private jets

- Further penetrate the Chinese and Indian markets

- Set up training centres for Thai workers and factory workers offering courses and loans for the courses to be repaid later in instalments

- Organise and legalise migrant workers from neighbouring countries

-Build 10 more electric train lines and dual-track railroads linking Bangkok and its vicinity

Thaksin, who admitted to being "hyperactive" during the videoconference, did not fail to attack political enemies, however.

Corruption is now rampant and many politicians are used to getting 30-per-cent kickbacks, he said.

Thaksin also claimed that just before the military coup on September 19, 2006, a Singapore agency held a meeting to discuss the competition from the yet-to-be opened Suvarnabhumi Airport.

"But they stopped the meeting after learning that I was ousted, saying the place could no longer be a hub now that Thaksin was gone."

Follow campaign rules strictly, PM tells Cabinet members

Follow campaign rules strictly, PM tells Cabinet members

By Piyanart Srivalo
The Nation
Published on May 5, 2011

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has asked his Cabinet members and other political appointees to adhere strictly to the campaign rules in the run-up to the general election, government deputy spokesman Watchara Kannikar said yesterday.

The prime minister told Cabinet members to avoid any act that would put them at risk of violating the rules, noting that the Election Commission still had no clear guidelines regarding certain matters, the spokesman said.

Abhisit also asked them to follow the Cabinet resolution made in 2000 about the dos and don'ts for political appointees ahead of an election.

Watchara said the prime minister told his Cabinet members during their meeting on Tuesday that he had asked the EC to clarify perks regarding Cabinet members in a caretaker government during the lead-up to the poll.

Abhisit wanted to know the limits of his perks in the campaigning while he had to serve as the caretaker prime minister, the spokesman said.

The prime minister is expected to dissolve the House of Representatives soon, after which his government will serve in a caretaker role until a new administration takes over the job of running the country.

The following are key questions the prime minister consulted the EC about:

- Whether the caretaker prime minister and Cabinet members could use government-issued bulletproof cars while campaigning;

- Whether the security details assigned to Abhisit and his deputy Suthep Thaugsuban could provide protection on the campaign trail;

- Whether it would be a campaign violation if the caretaker prime minister accepted coffee and beverages served while he attended seminars and other social functions;

- Whether it would be a campaign violation if the caretaker prime minister accepted an invitation for a dinner talk;

- Whether it would be a campaign violation if the caretaker prime minister took inspection trips to visit and provide relief for victims of natural calamities.

Abhisit informed other Cabinet members during their meeting on Tuesday about his consultation with the EC, Watchara said.

Some Cabinet members attending the meeting also raised questions about guidelines on campaign conduct. For example, Watchara said, Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silapa-archa asked whether it would be against the rules for him to answer a call to his office telephone in which the caller talked to him as a political party leader. Abhisit responded that there were certain issues on which the EC was unable to set out clear, detailed guidelines.

The prime minister also reiterated during the Cabinet meeting that state agencies' billboards with images of Cabinet members should be removed, including one by the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority featuring Abhisit's image, Watchara said.

Sonthi warns about recurring crisis

Sonthi warns about recurring crisis

Matubhum Party leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin on Wednesday warned the poll might be derailed by a repeat of the past crisis.

Sonthi, former coup leader, did not clarify about the crisis although many understoon his remarks referring to street protests by the red and yellow shirts spiral out of control.

He said he was confident the military would not intervene in the poll. He also stated that the Thai-Cambodian border dispute would not escalate to disrupt the balloting.

The Nation

If Thaksin is addressing the TCCC, how does that fit with the conspiracy theories about the Thai-Chinese trying to keep him out?

He would gradually lower the income tax over two years from 30 per cent to 20 per cent, arguing that this, along with the higher minimum wage, would lead to stronger domestic purchasing power and higher value-added tax receipts through larger and larger cycles of consumption.

He will reduce tax, increase low wages and the resulting spending spree would mean an increase in tax revenue? Any economist likely to comment on this?

"Today, countries with problems are those with high taxes," said Thaksin, who resides in Dubai after being convicted in Thailand.

Such as? I thought countries with high taxes were the fairest, with least corruption, best education, welfare etc.

it's not surprising that he focus so much on taxes, after all, wasn't he "dodging" tax payments with all those offshore transactions ?

A lot of ppl like Thaksin because he gets things done, although personally I found a lot of it pretty scary stuff, like this:

Thaksin mentioned his pet project - developing a city on reclaimed land somewhere on the Gulf of Thailand that would be about half the size of Phuket or 200,000 rai.

That's a decent sized project, have any studies been carried out or did he just think it up over breakfast.

He still has his obsession with hubs, suggesting three for Bangkok, but then revealing overseas sentiment that

....the place could no longer be a hub now that Thaksin was gone."

Looking back, Thaksin was as funny as Samak and Chalerm, he'd come out with the wildest of ideas and deny them the next day.

The problem was he had the power to implement them, making Thailand the hub of extra judicial killings and HR abuses.

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

"An ABAC Poll survey published in September last year revealed "

The words "ABAC Poll" and "revealed" shouldn't be used in the same sentence. Counterintuitive.

hear, hear!!!!

But using researchy type jargon and terminology fools some people.

Originally Posted by Buksida

A lot of ppl like Thaksin because he gets things done, although personally I found a lot of it pretty scary stuff, like this:

Thaksin mentioned his pet project - developing a city on reclaimed land somewhere on the Gulf of Thailand that would be about half the size of Phuket or 200,000 rai.

That's a decent sized project, have any studies been carried out or did he just think it up over breakfast.

He still has his obsession with hubs, suggesting three for Bangkok, but then revealing overseas sentiment that

....the place could no longer be a hub now that Thaksin was gone."

Looking back, Thaksin was as funny as Samak and Chalerm, he'd come out with the wildest of ideas and deny them the next day.

The problem was he had the power to implement them, making Thailand the hub of extra judicial killings and HR abuses.

very good post,

Originally Posted by Calgary

regurgitate in great volume the stuff the State Media has fed you. You can thank me later for this opening.

No need, I can go from memory of when he was in power and it was his state media.

But it seems the stuff he's coming out with these days is better - man made islands!

Originally Posted by sabang

Originally Posted by Buksida

The problem was he had the power to implement them

He did, due to his democratic electoral majority. Then again, criticism of the several infrastructural projects that Thaksin was responsible for- expressways, the subway, swampy etc is notably short on the ground- although criticism of the organised corruption during these projects obviously isn't. So hardly loony.

The fact remains that economically, Thailand did very well during Thaksin's tenure. Check any indicator you want. Valid criticisms of the guy lie elsewhere.

He had the power to override the constitution, influence the courts, rule by decree and bribe/intimidate the media. I remember one journalist criticized a swampy runaway and was hit with a billionaire Baht lawsuit.

But let's look to the future, any thoughts on his combined wage increases/tax cuts, hub for private jets, man made island with beaches?

Originally Posted by Buksida

Originally Posted by Calgary

regurgitate in great volume the stuff the State Media has fed you. You can thank me later for this opening.

No need, I can go from memory of when he was in power and it was his state media.

But it seems the stuff he's coming out with these days is better - man made islands!

It was never "his State media". The State Media belongs to the Amart.

Why do you think Mr. Thaksin finally took them to court.

Making up stories is a particular strength of this State Media. The demonization campaign of Thaksin was already underway while he was still PM. Essentially softening up the public prior to the coup. When he finally confronted this State Media about proving these stories, they screamed "freedom of the Press", and most Farangs duly bought into that.

There you are Thaksin haters....I am serving you the opportunity to let loose on a silver platter!!!!

With respect to "man made islands", you ever been to Holland Buksida?....I doubt it.

Originally Posted by Calgary

It was never "his State media". The State Media belongs to the Amart.

But a lot of ppl are saying the amart are Thai Chinese (as is Thaksin) and he was talking to the TCCC, so I'm finding all the conspiracies confusing.

Originally Posted by Calgary

With respect to "man made islands", you ever been to Holland Buksida?....I doubt it.

Yes I have, from memory it wasn't an island.

Bangkok Post : PM plans Tuesday dissolution

PM plans Tuesday dissolution

Source says royal decree to go to King tomorrow

• Published: 5/05/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva plans to submit a royal decree to dissolve the House to the King tomorrow and then declare a dissolution on Tuesday, a Democrat Party source says.


Pheu Thai Party parties in the park Pheu Thai Party election candidates for Bangkok take part in a morale-boosting session at Lumpini Park yesterday where the party announced its electoral policies under the slogan ‘‘Do it now’’. SOMCHAI POOMLARD

Tuesday is the day after the Constitution Court is scheduled to rule whether the three draft organic laws pertaining to the election comply with the constitution, said the source.

This would mean the election day would be on July 8 instead of July 6, the source added.

The House was earlier expected to be dissolved tomorrow.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said that it should not pose any kind of a problem if the House dissolution is delayed for one or two days as long as everything else can run smoothly.

"I believe the prime minister will have to consult the related laws before he decides what can be done first, or later," said Mr Suthep.

"It will be a shame if the election-related laws which the Election Commission had planned to put in place before the general election are not used in the end."

• See also: PM denies spending to buy votes

Meanwhile, Vachara Kannikar, a deputy government spokesman, said yesterday that the cabinet had approved the EC's proposal to set aside a total budget of 3.8 billion baht to organise the general election.

Parliament president Chai Chidchob, meanwhile, raised concerns over the possibility that the Senate would not be able to countersign the royal command endorsing the three poll bills because the appointment of the new Senate speaker had yet to be royally endorsed.

However, Deputy Senate Speaker Nikhom Wairatpanich said there were still other solutions available to resolve this technical problem which Mr Chai said could lead to a fresh political impasse.

Bangkok Post : Suthep: House dissolution in a few days

Suthep: House dissolution in a few days

• Published: 5/05/2011 at 11:08 AM
• Online news:

The prime minister will within the next few days submit a royal decree to dissolve the House of Representatives to the King for approval, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said on Thursday.

However, Mr Suthep admitted that it is unlikely the general election could be held on June 26 as earlier planned.

The Election Commission needs time for to complete preparations after the decree is issued. The people could instead go to the polls to choose their next government in early July, he said.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Thaksin mentioned his pet project - developing a city on reclaimed land somewhere on the Gulf of Thailand that would be about half the size of Phuket or 200,000 rai.

"Whatever we do not have or cannot build in Bangkok will be constructed there," he said.

What nonesense. But the following is good.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

- Set up training centres for Thai workers and factory workers offering courses and loans for the courses to be repaid later in instalments

- Organise and legalise migrant workers from neighbouring countries

-Build 10 more electric train lines and dual-track railroads linking Bangkok and its vicinity

Bangkok Post : MPs await gong of dissolution to start campaigning

POWER GAMES

MPs await gong of dissolution to start campaigning

• Published: 5/05/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Despite uncertainty over the exact date, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is determined to carry out his promise to the public and politicians. He looks set to announce the dissolution of the Lower House any day now.


Jatuporn Prompan’s fiery tongue and aggressive manner could put Pheu Thai’s election campaign in jeopardy, the party’s leaders fear.

After that the next step will belong to the Election Commission, which will set the application dates for candidates and the date for the general election.

As the new polls draw nearer, all political parties are gearing up for the big day. Incumbent MPs will be going to their constituencies in the hopes of being returned to parliament for another term.

In reality, not all of them will be guaranteed by their party about the chances of coming back. The parties have to change their representatives contesting the polls if the new faces offer them a better chance at winning.

One possible stumbling block to the new election is the red shirts. Democrat Party spokesman Buranaj Smutharaks said the ruling party is fretting about the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, following the announcement from Jatuporn Prompan that the red shirt members will still keep their protest schedule unchanged. They will hold a rally on the 10th and 19th of every month, to commemorate the bloody demonstrations last year. The slight difference is that UDD members running in the election will not be on stage attacking Mr Abhisit and his government, so as to avoid being disqualified from the polls.

It is no secret that these red shirt leaders will run for parliament under the Pheu Thai flag. In fact, it will be better for the UDD to abandon the street rally and rely on Pheu Thai for any political changes it may desire. Its planned, "brief" demonstrations will only inflict more damage on the country if the rallies drag on and on, endlessly.

Another worry is the campaign engineered by the yellow shirts for eligible voters to mark "no" on the ballot sheets, to show their rejection of the election and the political parties. The People's Alliance for Democracy will intensify this tactic following its decision to keep its political arm, the New Politics Party, out of the race.

As far as the Democrat Party is concerned, the prime minister and party leader will continue his policy to boost the economy and tackle poverty, in addition to other populist measures to please all sections of society.

Abhisit Vejjajiva and his party are pinning their hopes on another group of voters besides Democrat loyalists. These are the 60% of the population who do not subscribe to any colour code and are undecided which party they will vote for. He hopes that his policies will entice them to pick the Democrat Party as their main choice.

The Democrats' rival, Pheu Thai, has an urgent problem to resolve first. Mr Jatuporn, who is a party MP, has questioned de facto party leader Thaksin Shinawatra about his support for the red shirts. Mr Jatuporn was a bit disappointed at Thaksin's orders regarding a clear boundary line between the party and the UDD.

The order followed the UDD's controversial remarks about the monarchy on April 10, which worried Thaksin and some Pheu Thai leaders that the party's reputation had been dented.

Mr Jatuporn's aggressiveness could be a setback for Pheu Thai as it could upset those who have not yet decided on their choice of candidates.

Pirapan Palusuk, the Yasothon MP and veteran politician, expressed concern over Mr Jatuporn's starkly assertive approach.

He said it could put Pheu Thai's election campaign in jeopardy, costing the votes of neutral people, who might cast their ballots for the Democrats, despite dissatisfaction over the ruling party's current flop, only because they were more unhappy with Mr Jatuporn's strategic aggressiveness.

This group of people, according to Mr Pirapan, are considered as "swing votes" which Pheu Thai hopes to win over.

"Take the yellow shirts, for example. When the People's Alliance for Democracy and the New Politics Party crossed swords in terms of policy, the party stepped aside. The red shirts should let our [Pheu Thai] party take the leadership role for a change. They don't have to be heroes all the time," Mr Pirapan said.

The pre-election period, not surprisingly, will be highly competitive. Whoever captures the swing votes will win the election fair and square.

Or so it is believed.

By publishing a photo like that, the BP will have a hard time saying they're not biased, making it B&W gives it that whole Nuremberg feel.

Nonetheless, it did make me chuckle.