Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by nostromo

Originally Posted by SteveCM

TR [at]news1005fm: Abac poll on if election was held now: Dems will win 34.1% of party list votes. PT 36.4 %

Very nicely worded for quick twitter readers, "Dems will win", oh just later it appears they had lower %.
I think Tulsathit is a professional, respect him over most others in the Nation group. He is good.

Well, let's not make too much of just a Tulsie tweet translating another (Thai-language) tweet..... But as mentioned above, it'll be interesting to see how they end up reporting the results in the (news)paper. I'd say the smart money must be on them leading with the "honesty,transparency" result - with a side-bet on something questioning whether this poll can be trusted..... same as when ABAC's previous poll pointed to PT taking a huge swathe of BKK seats.

**nostromo** · 08-05-2011, 02:19 PM

Edited twice due to pressure from. cant say
The war on drugs "by Thaksin" was (might been approved) by the (maybe highest authority) * or swansea licencing centre. and it was popular in Thailand. I myself supported war on drugs (and there are stats to prove it was successful). There were probs, as with any project.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Ah yes, lets remember that effective war on drugs....

Policies of the Shinawatra administration - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The policy was effective in substantially increasing the price of methamphetamine and thus reducing the intake of habitual and recreational users, with retail drug prices skyrocketing 2-3 times as a result. The longer-term effectiveness of the crackdown, however, is less clear.

Originally Posted by sabang

Domestically, it was the most popular thing he did. Sadly. But given he was the most popular PM ever, that is saying something.

Conducted two years after the campaign, an ABAC opinion poll revealed that 62.2 percent of respondents believed that drug abuse had increased from 2004 to 2005. The same survey also showed that people had lost confidence in the Thaksin's anti-drug policies, with 67.8 percent answering that they no longer trust the government to solve the drug problem.[22]

The Nation (an English-language newspaper in Thailand) reported on November 27, 2007:

"Of 2,500 deaths in the government's war on drugs in 2003, a fact-finding panel has found that more than half was not involved in drug at all. At a brainstorming session, a representative from the Office of Narcotics Control Board (ONCB) Tuesday disclosed that as many as 1,400 people were killed and labelled as drug suspects despite the fact that they had no link to drugs."

The article also reported:

"Senior public prosecutor Kunlapon Ponlawan said it was not difficult to investigate extra-judicial killings carried out by police officers as the trigger-pullers usually confessed."[23][24]
The January 24, 2008 edition of The Economist reported:

Yet a panel set up last year by the outgoing junta recently concluded the opposite: over half of those killed in 2003 had no links to the drugs trade. The panel blamed the violence on a government “shoot-to-kill” policy based on flawed blacklists. But far from leading to the prosecutions of those involved, its findings have been buried. The outgoing interim prime minister, Surayud Chulanont, took office vowing to right Mr Thaksin's wrongs. Yet this week he said there was insufficient evidence to take legal action over the killings. It is easy to see why the tide has turned. Sunai Phasuk, a researcher for Human Rights Watch, a lobbying group, says that the panel's original report named the politicians who egged on the gunmen. But after the PPP won last month's elections, those names were omitted.[25]

The New York Times reported on April 8, 2003:

Since the death of 9-year-old Chakraphan, there have been frequent reports in the Thai press of summary executions and their innocent victims. There was the 16-month-old girl who was shot dead along with her mother, Raiwan Khwanthongyen. There was the pregnant woman, Daranee Tasanawadee, who was killed in front of her two young sons. There was the 8-year-old boy, Jirasak Unthong, who was the only witness to the killing of his parents as they headed home from a temple fair. There was Suwit Baison, 23, a cameraman for a local television station, who fell to his knees in tears in front of Mr. Thaksin and begged for an investigation into the killing of his parents. His stepfather had once been arrested for smoking marijuana, Mr. Suwit said. When the police offered to drop the charge if he would admit to using methamphetamines, he opted instead to pay the $100 fine for marijuana use. Both parents were shot dead as they returned home from the police station on a motorbike. Mr. Suwit said 10 other people in his neighborhood had also been killed after surrendering to the police.[12]

Originally Posted by sabang

A purge on drugs was originally suggested by the high Military actually- whether Thaksin can be described as the sole architect is highly debatable, but he was certainly complicit.

Sabang, he seemed to be leading the charge, I've no idea why you would suggest a diminished role. Complicit suggests others were involved. While in the earlier stages that may have been true, Thaksin was the one who pushed for it and some of his rhetoric at the time suggests he should be held accountable. The buck always stops with Prime minister....right?

Thailand: Anti-Drug Campaign Reaches New Low | Human Rights Watch

On Sunday, Thaksin announced a new round of the anti-drug campaign that began in February 2003. Promising “brutal measures” against drug traffickers, Thaksin said, “Drug dealers and traffickers are heartless and wicked. All of them must be sent to meet the guardian of hell, so that there will not be any drugs in the country.”

Newsbrief: Southeast Asians to End Drugs

"I want to see every square inch getting x-rayed and authorities making a clean sweep of drugs in every area within three months from now," he told a briefing of more than a thousand governors, police and military personnel on January 15, the Bangkok Post reported. Thaksin added that he would no longer tolerate drugs and vowed a vicious fight. "Drug traders are unkind to our children, so we will be unkind to them," he said.

Functionaries who fail to eradicate drugs could lose their jobs, Thaksin warned. "Don't make the interior minister act as police inspector. You are finished if you don't do your job."

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 02:49 PM

From the blog world.....

Thai Election Analysis: Abhisit seek “Closure”, Taksin seek “Acceptance” & Thai army chief seek “Safety”

8 May 2011

By Ranger, Thai Intel’s political journalist

Latest poll says most Thais have not decided who to vote for

Thailand is heading into an election, a time to decide between much of the same or to change!

The same means a general drift into the far extreme right/ To change means returning to a more open democracy.

It is an important time, that have raised many questions. Perhaps, looking at it from a “Strategic Management Concepts” - such as mission, goals and tactics - can be useful.

Democrat Party Mission: Serving the Establishment?

Abhisit, Thailand’s current prime minister, is from the Democratic Party, which for most of the party’s long history of existence, have been mainly about protecting the establishment’s interest, with a long known reputation of being cutting edge in politics, but just plain awful at managing the country. And it makes sense, how can the Democrat Party manage the country, when its main interest is simply serving the establishment. Even its populus policies are mainly the pacify the Thais for the establishment rule.

Taksin’s Mission: Disfranchised Thais?

Taksin, Thailand’s former prime minister, who won consecutive landslide election but was kicked out by a coup, leads a series of political parties, that fundamentally changed Thailand. The target of all of Taksin’s political parties, have always been the interest of the majority of Thais. In Thailand, that means the lower middle class downward to the grass-roots. And it makes sense, from a political point of view since this is the majority of Thais and it also makes sense, economically, since the lower middle class downward, can be considered the “Blue Ocean” of Thailand-meaning, new agents of growth and prosperity for all.

The Thai Military Mission: Religion, King & Country?

The Thai military, as always, have been the vanguard for the “Nation, King and Country” and thus have always been politicized, existing, as another dimension with its own thread and momentum, intersecting with Thai politics and influencing it. Here, the interest of the Thai people is mostly non-existence. The people, is only accorded attention, according to the level of their unity towards a goal - for example, in times of great liberalization mood in Thailand, the military will lie dormant and in times of great dis-unity of the Thais, the military becomes active.

But apart from the above over-riding philosophy or mission, the current election is also about “Goals.”

Abhisit’s Goals: Bring Closure?

For Abhisit, since the Thai crisis, that take roots in the 2006 coup and exploding in climax in last year’s bloody crackdown, Abhisit is seeking “Closure” from the election. Meaning, if he wins the election, he can claim that the Thais supports his crackdown and thus legitimized the killings. That would mean, Abhisit can move forward, leaving the past behind.

Taksin’s Goals: Gain Acceptance?

For Taksin, since the Thai crisis that started with the 2006 coup, it had been nothing but a long running battle to re-gain his acceptance back into Thailand. The middle class upward, have rejected Taksin and in that rejection, anything, no matter how wrong the action is, anything and everything was legitimized to destroy Taksin. The injustice done, in the name of destroying Taksin, have very much destroyed Thailand itself - as everything about the Thai establishment became corrupted. Thus Taksin is all out in winning the next election, as so many Thai political analysts have said, “Taksin have turned off the engine and is on a head-on collusion with the democrat Party.”

Prayuth’s Goals: Safety from A Military in Command?

For The Thai army chief, Prayuth, who led the hardline on the crackdown of the Red Shirts last year - all the faults and blame for the killing of about 100 protesters clearly lies on his shoulders. Yet Prayuth, who “Hates” the Red Shirts to the maximum and see them as the enemy of Thailand, it is not the killing that concerns him, but the next government. Prayuth, having re-shuffle the Thai military internal workings so that most of the force commanders are his people, is secure in his position to a certain extent-meaning, he can always stage a coup in an instant if his position becomes threatened. But what is at stake is the general mood of Thailand-meaning, liberalism against the far extreme right. The mood of Thailand in the future, is something that can undermine, not just Prayuth, but the Thai military’s as a whole.

So in conclusion here, Abhisit seek “closure”, Taksin ”acceptance” and Prayuth “safety” in the next election.

The Risk Factors: Non-Synergistic & Opposing Forces?

The risk involved is clear, in the tactic of the election itself-as already, much have been written about all the illegitimate tactic of the establishment that have now very much means the next Thai election will not be free or fair. Thus one core risk already, is that the election, is on the verge of being not respected. With a few more examples of the establishment’s illegitimate tactics the whole election will not be respected by many Thais -a people who are not very united as a country already.

But there are other risks - the risk of conflicting goals, personalities, and future arrangements:

In Thailand’s case, the goals themselves, of “Closure”, “Acceptance” and “Safety” do not spell a great recipe for a future smooth running Thailand.
Take if Taksin wins the election for example, the Red Shirts will press their case on the killing of protesters, on press freedom on amending the constitution back to the “People’s Constitution” to have it accepted. That means, a clear and direct assault of Abhisit’s goal of “Closure.” Or if Abhisit wins the election, his goal of “Closure” again runs directly against Taksin’s goal of being “Accepted.”

And in the meanwhile, as noted before, the Thai military, with little accountability to anyone, operates in Thailand with its own reality and lines drawn-meaning, anything is possible from the Thai military.

And yet, there is another risk - in personality clashes.

Tactic wise, in the next election - it is Taksin taking the helm of the Pheu Thai Party and the Red Shirts. As for the establishment, there is a host of internal conflict in itself - ranging from Abhisit assentions vs Prayuth’s control and the Yellow Shirts election boycott. Then the coalition parties themselves, is in a great turmoil-in who will align with who and who will get the grade “A” cabinet posts? Then lastly, tactic-wise, the election itself is pitching messages that can further polarize Thailand. Such as “Vote for the Monarchy” message against the “Vote for Democracy” message.

A Plausible Conclusion?

In conclusion, fundamentally, closure, acceptance and safety can co-exist in peace and order. However, in Thailand’s case, the momentum is highly scattered and multi-directional, pitching major mission and goals differences into the melting pot. And with the election loosing whatever respect it has gained as to the solution to Thailand, the Thai situation is still open for speculation.

Related articles

Political Analysis: Wall Street Journal’s Taksin interview “Taksin still as positive as ever” (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
News & Analysis: Top Thai echelons to hold “Anti-Taksin” strategy meet & a proposel to “Shut Off” Thailand (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
Political Intelligence: Bangkok up-for-grabs in next election as turmoil hits every party (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
Social Psychology Analysis: “Anchalee the Foul Mouth” & the career of a typical Thai mainstream journalist (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
Corruption Series (3): Abhisit “Fixing” the next general election (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
Political Analysis: Why did the Thai prime minister call for a general election? (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 02:52 PM

^
I'm not a fan of "says it all" comments (with or without "Bingo - "). But I do think this blog piece brings together and says a lot.

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 04:32 PM

Originally Posted by Calgary

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

^ Hey Calgary, got any photos from that rally you attended last night? I'd love to see them and I'm sure other members would too...if you took any that is.

Not into photography SD.

I understand that tomorrow will be the mother-of-all Red Shirt democracy Movement rallies in Khon kean.

I am sure the State Media will give it wide coverage

Seeing the enormity of these rallies puts into perspective one of the reasons why they want this election sooner than I expected.

Continuance of this trend can only jeapardize (sp?) the electoral prospects of the current non-elected ruling minority

"The Red crowd listens to Nattawut Saikua on Saturday night."

Source: Pheu Thai Kicks off Campaign Season in Isaan

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 04:34 PM

^
Sorry it's so big - the pic that is.....

**nostromo** · 08-05-2011, 04:39 PM

Steve good photo - hope Calgary is not shut down. Can I say that or will be I shut down?

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Originally Posted by Calgary

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

^ Hey Calgary, got any photos from that rally you attended last night? I'd love to see them and I'm sure other members would too...if you took any that is.

Not into photography SD.

I understand that tomorrow will be the mother-of-all Red Shirt democracy Movement rallies in Khon kean.

I am sure the State Media will give it wide coverage

Seeing the enormity of these rallies puts into perspective one of the reasons why they want this election sooner than I expected.

Continuance of this trend can only jeapardize (sp?) the electoral prospects of the current non-elected ruling minority

Source: Pheu Thai Kicks off Campaign Season in Isaan

**Calgary** · 08-05-2011, 05:08 PM

A good snapshot of the Khon Kean rally, in terms of demographics.

You notice the vast majority of them are women.

These are the terrorists from Ratchaprasong.

You see these people having a good time, which is totally incongruous with the huge contingents of security forces that are mustered for these rallies. As I have said before, the heavy security presence that the state media likes to trumpet, is not about security at all. It is to convince those who never come to these events that these red shirts are a bunch of rabble rousers..To characterize them a certain way. That if it wasn't for this security diligence, all these women would explode into violence.

At a similar rally to this in Korat, which was held across from the Mall, the same situation occurred. When I wandered into the Mall, I saw many of the security people in there as well. Strange I thought. Aren't they supposed to be out there controlling all these terrorists.

One additional point. Rallies such as these are being held in many locations currently. You wont read about them in the State Media. Can you imagine if this was the case for the other side of the political divide, how this would be given extensive coverage

**nostromo** · 08-05-2011, 05:23 PM

They are all terrorists

Funny to see new US ambassador to Thailand Ambassador - U.S. Embassy Bangkok, Thailand she said on the telly everything is ok she was not here at the time of troubles and doest not know. now how unprofessional is that. This i just happened to see on thai govt controlled tv.

Originally Posted by Calgary

A good snapshot of the Khon Kean rally, in terms of demographics.

You notice the vast majority of them are women.

These are the terrorists from Ratchaprasong.

You see these people having a good time, which is totally incongruous with the huge contingents of security forces that are mustered for these rallies. As I have said before, the heavy security presence that the state media likes to trumpet, is not about security at all. It is to convince those who never come to these events that these red shirts are a bunch of rabble rousers..To characterize them a certain way.

At a similar rally to this in Korat, which was held across from the Mall, the same situation occurred. When I wandered into the Mall, I saw many of the security people in there as well. Strange I thought. Aren't they supposed to be out there controlling all these terrorists.

**StrontiumDog** · 08-05-2011, 05:26 PM

Originally Posted by SteveCM

Half of voters are undecided

By The Nation on Sunday
Published on May 8, 2011

The opposition Pheu Thai Party enjoys a slim lead over the ruling Democrat Party although most voters remain undecided which party to vote for in the upcoming general election, a public opinion survey has found.

More than 23 per cent of the respondents favoured Pheu Thai, compared to 20.2 per cent who opted for the Democrats, almost 3 per cent who would vote for the Bhum Jai Thai Party, and less than 1 per cent for other parties, according to results of the poll by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida).

Almost 53 per cent of those surveyed said they remained undecided about their choice in the next election.

The survey was conducted on 1,203 people in all regions of the country on Monday and Tuesday.

Did you bother to look in the election thread? You will find this piece was posted 12 hours before you decided to do so.

**Butterfly** · 08-05-2011, 05:41 PM

SteveCM doesn't pay attention to other posts beside himself,

**StrontiumDog** · 08-05-2011, 06:09 PM

Also, why the need for the enormous photo?

Here is the piece that accompanied it....strange that a Thaksin fan would avoid posting it....the first paragraph is telling...and oh look! The photo isn't enormous...

Pheu Thai Kicks off Campaign Season in Isaan

Pheu Thai Kicks off Campaign Season in Isaan

05/01/2011

by The Isaan Record

KHON KAEN – The campaign slogans might have been written in red, but Saturday night’s United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship rally couldn’t have been any clearer: vote for the blue and white of Pheu Thai.

On a stage crowded with local Pheu Thai MPs and candidates alike, speakers extolled the virtues of the party’s recently announced platform and mocked their political opponents, the Democrats. In his characteristically light-hearted style, Red Shirt spokesperson Nattawut Saikua delighted the assembled crowd of over 10,000 by speculating that in a past life current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had been a public toilet frequented by the Pheu Thai Party. “It’s no wonder that in this life we have to keep cleaning up the Democrats’ crap,” he said.

The Red crowd listens to Nattawut Saikua on Saturday night.

Amidst explanations of Pheu Thai’s proposed minimum wage hike, a credit-card program for farmers, and promises to give tablet PCs to schoolchildren, Mr. Abhisit became an object of near constant ridicule for Mr. Saikua. The southern-born UDD firebrand repeatedly criticized the Prime Minister’s administration for the rising national debt, the escalation of the Cambodian border dispute and an insufficient response to last month’s flooding in the south.

In what would become a common refrain for all of the evening’s speakers, Mr. Saikua asked his audience to reflect on exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s time in office. “Thaksin is the best Prime Minister we ever had – we lived happily…. Now what do we have?” he asked with a shrug.

The most anticipated speaker of the evening, however, was not the charismatic Mr. Saikua, but Mr. Thaksin himself. Calling in from Dubai, the former Prime Minister covered similar ground, repeating the party’s campaign promises and disparaging the Democrats. “If the current political party wants to buy your vote,” he said, “you have to think that 500 Baht is not enough. The Democrats have cost this country so much more.”

Mr. Thaksin concluded his address by uncomfortably lip-synching to a Thai country song about missing home, asking his supporters if they want him to return (their enthusiastic response indicated that they do), and then signing off amid fireworks and chants of “Pheu Thai, Pheu Thai.”

As the rally wound down, local UDD leader Phoprak Udomporn told reporters that he was confident in Pheu Thai’s chances in Khon Kaen. “We’ll win all ten seats,” he said with a smile. To ensure that they do, Khon Kaen’s Red Shirts will be focussing on smaller, constituency-specific gatherings from now on. Saturday night’s rally, he said, will be the last of its size in the province until July.

**English Noodles** · 08-05-2011, 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Did you bother to look in the election thread? You will find this piece was posted 12 hours before you decided to do so.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Also, why the need for the enormous photo? Here is the piece that accompanied it....strange that a Thaksin fan would avoid posting it....the first paragraph is telling...and oh look! The photo isn't enormous...

Oh dear. SD is having a meltdown.

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 06:47 PM

From Twitter today....

tulsathit tulsathit

Abhisit has cleared morning schedules for tomorrow but there's no confirmation when he'll announce House dissolution. via[at] jin_nation

38 minutes ago

TR [at]wannasiri_: Tentative poll TL: May16-20 party list register; May21-25 constituency MP register; June 26 advance vote; July 3 election

24 minutes ago

**StrontiumDog** · 08-05-2011, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by nostromo

Edited twice due to pressure from. cant say
The war on drugs "by Thaksin" was (might been approved) by the (maybe highest authority) * or swansea licencing centre. and it was popular in Thailand. I myself supported war on drugs (and there are stats to prove it was successful). There were probs, as with any project.

Successful? So it ended the drugs problem?

You supported the killing of children and innocent people then? Did you read the piece I quoted?

**SteveCM** · 08-05-2011, 08:44 PM

Well, what's the point of having a PR department if you don't use it to spin? Check out the headline - but there's no hiding the grim reading for the Dems. Fresh from trumpeting all those populist giveaways - and they're 5% down.

.......

ABAC Poll: Pheu Thai only worse than Democrats for its lack of honesty and transparency : National News Bureau of Thailand

BANGKOK, 8 May 2011 (NNT)-In the latest survey by ABAC Poll, the results suggested that even though the Pheu Thai Party was more favorable than the Democrat Party in almost all aspects, the Opposition Party lacked transparency as well as honesty.

With respondents from 17 provinces across Thailand participating, the poll discovered that the respondents were more in favor of the Opposition Party for its policy, vision, foreign policy and economy than the ruling Party by almost 30%. However half of the respondents said the Democrats have more integrity and morals while the Pheu Thai Party followed closely at 48%.

The poll also found that the respondents have begun to shift their attention to other parties. They said they would vote for them other than the two rival parties if they had to vote now. Their number increased by 5%.

In the same way, the result showed a 5% decline in the number of Democrat supporters while the number of Pheu Thai supporters remained the same compared to the similar poll done previously by ABAC.

Reporter : NUPPOL SUVANSOMBUT

**English Noodles** · 08-05-2011, 10:36 PM

^Now now, stop poking sticks at the animals.

**Takeovers** · 08-05-2011, 11:32 PM

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Successful? So it ended the drugs problem?

Many people saw a significant reduction of drug related problems as long as it lasted.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

You supported the killing of children and innocent people then? Did you read the piece I quoted?

I remember one incident where two children were killed. A drug dealer was arrested and his wife attempted a runner with their car. The car was shot at and the children were killed. I say charge the mother with reckless endangerment of her children and have her look at pictures of her dead children every day for the rest of her life. How is this any fault of the police?

If there is no better proof of killings gone bad the campaign must have been a marvellously clean effort.

**Tom Sawyer** · 08-05-2011, 11:39 PM

Originally Posted by SteveCM

^
No word from The Notion on that rather alarming ABAC poll yet..... Maybe they need a meeting and a few stiff drinks to work out how to play it.

Personally, I think all the polls are bullshit and are designed to suggest the race is close - with one side or the other edging by the other at any given time. I think that's the psyche out. And people are buying it. It's not close - PTP would most likely blow the dems away in a free and fair election.

This is the beginning of the jerrymandering but people aren't seeing that. Implant the idea that the election is 'close' - so that when it's time for the real fraud (e.g. rigging the outcome) the "smallish" Dems win over the PTP will be accepted - because it's close to what the "polls" were predicting.

Tell a lie often enough and people will believe it as fact.

**nostromo** · 09-05-2011, 12:11 AM

No, it did not end the drug problem. But it gave a blow to drug dealers. Now it seems all is reversing, drug use is up... I cant speak much about this so it seems

Killing of children and women... now that is a card to play

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Originally Posted by nostromo

Edited twice due to pressure from. cant say
The war on drugs "by Thaksin" was (might been approved) by the (maybe highest authority) * or swansea licencing centre. and it was popular in Thailand. I myself supported war on drugs (and there are stats to prove it was successful). There were probs, as with any project.

s
Successful? So it ended the drugs problem?

You supported the killing of children and innocent people then? Did you read the piece I quoted?

**SteveCM** · 09-05-2011, 02:18 AM

From the blog world......

Thai PM Abhisit has deep pockets but a short memory | Asian Correspondent

By Siam Voices
May 09, 2011 12:05AM UTC

By James Buchanan

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva dug deep into his pockets this week to finalise approximately 100 billion baht worth of government spending. His cabinet held a marathon session until 2am to rush through an extraordinary 200 or so proposals before parliament is dissolved and elections are held. This, and the earlier Pracha Wiwat “gift” have drawn criticism for being populist policies designed to win votes for the upcoming election. Perhaps the Prime Minster has forgotten that, whilst in opposition, he denounced Prime Minster Thaksin for “exchanging promises for votes in the provinces” and described his populist policies as “total blackmail”.

Forgetfulness is a condition often faced by the elderly, but Thailand’s youngest ever Prime Minister is only 47 and is unlikely to be suffering from senile dementia. Yet Mr Abhisit has a long history of memory lapses. During the red shirt protests last year he refused to dissolve parliament on the grounds that government should not be swayed by street protests. When sections of the opposition called for the King to intervene in the crisis he replied that “Involving the royal institution in politics is inappropriate”. It must have slipped his mind that in 2006 he addressed a crowd of anti-Thaksin protesters at Sanam Luang, demanding that the Prime Minister dissolve parliament and calling on the King to appoint a new leader and cabinet.

During a speech at St Johns College, Oxford in 2009, P.M Abhisit was questioned about the arrest of Prachatai editor, Chiranuch Premchaiporn for computer crimes and Lèse majesté. He assured his audience that the arrest had been a “misunderstanding” and that he had “sorted it out”. However he didn’t seem to have any recollection of these words when he returned home to Thailand and the case against the editor continued. With the memory capacity of a goldfish-สมองปลาทอง in Thai-it is remarkable that Mr Abhisit managed to graduate from such a prestigious university as Oxford. Studying for finals must have been quite a challenge for the man who needs nearly a month to remember if he is a British Citizen or not.

The most sickening bout of amnesia the Prime Minister has ever suffered was during the murderous crackdown of the red shirts in 2010. Sitting in his war room in the 11th army regiment barracks whilst military snipers shot unarmed protesters in the head, he seemed to completely forget criticizing the police dispersal of the PAD supporters, who had occupied government house in 2008. At that time he called for then Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to take responsibility and resign, adding that he:

"…never thought that we would have a state which has the people killed and seriously injured, and then accuses the people of the crimes."

Should Abhisit’s memory ever start to function normally again, I imagine these words will haunt him as much as the images of the dead that he is responsible for.

Many in the anti-Thaksin camp like to accuse the poorer rural and working class people of voting irresponsibly (i.e. for Thaksin) because they are uneducated and easily led. Prime Minster Abhisit also seems to believe this and is now himself hoping to take advantage of their perceived naivety through his populist policies. However, the less privileged sectors of Thai society are savvier than their detractors give them credit for. Unlike Abhisit, they have a good memory and haven’t forgotten the higher standard of living they enjoyed during the Thaksin years, compared to the neglect they suffered under Democrat governments. Nor will they forget the friends and family killed and injured during the protests. The poor in Thailand are unlikely to be bought by a politician they know doesn’t have their best interests at heart and who is increasingly seen as insincere.

Most analysts agree that the upcoming election will be a close one. Win or lose, one question that the forgetful Abhisit should ask himself is; how will history remember me?

**Calgary** · 09-05-2011, 07:33 AM

Originally Posted by Tom Sawyer

Originally Posted by SteveCM

^
No word from The Notion on that rather alarming ABAC poll yet..... Maybe they need a meeting and a few stiff drinks to work out how to play it.

Personally, I think all the polls are bullshit and are designed to suggest the race is close - with one side or the other edging by the other at any given time. I think that's the psyche out. And people are buying it. It's not close - PTP would most likely blow the dems away in a free and fair election.

This is the beginning of the jerrymandering but people aren't seeing that. Implant the idea that the election is 'close' - so that when it's time for the real fraud (e.g. rigging the outcome) the "smallish" Dems win over the PTP will be accepted - because it's close to what the "polls" were predicting.

Tell a lie often enough and people will believe it as fact.

Hear, hear.

Damn, these Canadians are smart people!

**SteveCM** · 09-05-2011, 04:57 PM

Thai-ASEAN News Network

In Service of the People

UPDATE : 9 May 2011

In a continuation of his unmatched clarity, Army Commander General Prayuth Chan-ocha stated at the end of last week after a major army meeting that his forces have no qualms towards a Pheu Thai Party led government if the upcoming general election were to result in one. He qualified that if the public accepts the outcome, then so will the army, adding that the mechanisms of democracy must be allowed to work so that the Kingdom is not once again stalled. He added that despite claims otherwise, the army has every intention to respect the people and the press.

The announcement came as a rebuttal to speculation that the army, which has made it abundantly clear it will not tolerate any party that has no respect for the monarchy, would not allow Pheu Thai to become a government leader. The implications of the army chief's resounding words are great indeed, coming in a time of political uncertainty where the tentative status of the general election has been made ever worse by the fears of military intervention.

The commander's characteristic no-nonsense attitude has been applied quite appropriately to the situation, at the very least taking away one concern for a wary public.

General Prayuth once said in an interview that despite his intimidating appearance, he does not wish to put off the public, noting that his primary wish is to serve the public's best interests. During the interview, he explained that in his service of the public and in the army's protection of the nation, it would many times seem to come at odds with the sentiments of civilians, implying that the army's protection may not always be understood by the people. He assured then, much like in his recent press conference, that the army does not want to see the nation stagnate and that its work will always be for the goal of removing obstacles from the country's natural progression.

The army has long played a crucial role in Thailand's prosperity. Close to eight decades since the Kingdom adopted democracy, army leaders have collected a long catalog of lessons as to what are or are not healthy for democracy. General Prayuth and his forces should thus be commended for drawing on these lessons and upholding the primary tenant of democracy, that is to allow the people to decide their fate.

Matichon, May 9, 2011

Translated and Rewritten by Itiporn Lakarnchua

Please note that the views expressed in our "Analysis" segment are translated from local newspaper articles and do not reflect the views of the Thai-ASEAN News Network.

**Mid** · 09-05-2011, 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by SteveCM

The army has long played a crucial role in Thailand's prosperity. Close to eight decades since the Kingdom adopted democracy, army leaders have collected a long catalog of lessons as to what are or are not healthy for democracy. General Prayuth and his forces should thus be commended for drawing on these lessons and upholding the primary tenant of democracy, that is to allow the people to decide their fate.

early days ........................

**SteveCM** · 09-05-2011, 05:01 PM

^^
I can only assume that Matichon has a tongue-in-cheek "NotTheNation" style section - from which this was taken. Either that or they have to publish Prayuth's PR hand-outs as a kind of licence to write their real journalism.

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