The COVID-2019 Thread

[harrybarracuda]

It might be safe for Russian doctors to go near windows now.

Russia’s true death toll from the novel coronavirus pandemic is not about 57 000, as official figures claim, but more than 180 000, the country’s deputy prime minister, Tatiana Golikova, conceded at a press conference.
Russia’s claims of an extraordinarily low mortality have been widely dismissed as implausible for months by foreign observers and Russian doctors alike. Every other indicator, from packed hospitals with long lines of ambulances to mortality among health workers documented by their own associations, has painted a picture of a country hit hard by the pandemic, not one miraculously spared.
These suspicions were confirmed when the Rosstat statistics agency said on 28 December that the number of deaths from all causes recorded between January and November was 229 700 higher than in 2019. “More than 81% of this increase in mortality over this period is due to covid,” said Golikova. That would mean that more than 186 000 Russians have died from covid-19.
The figures mean Russia ranks third in the world in terms of deaths from covid-19, behind only the US and Brazil. It would also give Russia the fourth highest per capita death rate, about 1273 deaths per million population, behind only San Marino, Belgium, and Slovenia.

Covid-19: Russia admits to understating deaths by more than two thirds | The BMJ

[Buckaroo Banzai]

By the way for those concerned about takin the vaccine.
Of course we are all different, but I took the first Pfizer shot three days ago.
First , if you don't like needles. I did not even feel the Jab. I joked to the nurse "are you sure you gave it to me?)
for the first five hours I did not feel anything. then the area got a little sore, but barely so . Next day it was gone.
Truth be told , you hear of some having a negative reaction, but what you don't hear is the millions that had no problem . Here in the US we had 70 million vaccine shots already. The number of those with a negative reaction is so low as to be statistically insignificant.
None of the reported deaths have been directly attributed to the vaccine NONE, not one
To all of you who will not take the vaccine, THANK YOU, it leaves more available for me and I got mine. Later on when you see how foolish you were, there will be plenty left for you. If you are alive, if not , nice knowing you!!

[misskit]

^ Good!

I actually had a reaction to the Moderna vaccine. Moderna arm. Seems to be common to get a red itchy rash at the jab.

Was at the hospital with my mom and showed it to one of the nurses. Everyone on the floor had to come around and take a look.

[Klondyke]

^The article is from December last year using a link from May 2020...

Covid-19: Russia admits to understating deaths by more than two thirds | The BMJ (Published 31 December 2020)

References
↵Dyer O. Covid-19: Mexico acknowledges 50 000 more deaths than official figures show. BMJ2020;371:m4182. doi:10.1136/bmj.m4182 pmid:33122250FREE Full TextGoogle Scholar
↵Bonch-Osmolovskaya K, Schennikov A, Martynova E. Unaccounted for: Real mortality from covid-2019 in Moscow is almost 3 times higher than official figures. Novaya Gazeta. 11 May 2020. Новая газета - Novayagazeta.ru.

In the meantime, the said lady is saying last week:

MARCH 5, 2021
Russian deputy PM says death rate fell 21.7% m/m in February
By Reuters Staff

MOSCOW, March 5 (Reuters) - Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova on Friday said that deaths across Russia had fallen by 9.5% on a month-on-month basis in January, and by 21.7% in February, citing data from federal statistics service Rosstat.

Golikova said that 5 million Russians had received the first dose of a vaccine against COVID-19 and that 2.5 million people had received two doses. (Reporting by Maria Tsvetkova; Writing by Alexander Marrow; editing by John Stonestreet)

Russian deputy PM says death rate fell 21.7% m/m in February | Reuters

(BTW, why they do not count the dead bodies more precisely, something like in NYC?)

[Buckaroo Banzai]

^ Good!

I actually had a reaction to the Moderna vaccine. Moderna arm. Seems to be common to get a red itchy rash at the jab.

Was at the hospital with my mom and showed it to one of the nurses. Everyone on the floor had to come around and take a look.

Sorry to hear that, I hope it was not too bad, and everything is OK now. my neighbor also had a bit of a reaction, her arm hurt for a week , but she is better now. Not sure which one she got, but it was before J&J was available so it had to be either the Pfizer otr the Moderna. My brother in law is very allergic to shellfish and some other things, , he was told that he is better of taking the J&J because it has less side effects.

It is good that we all post our experience, so we can get a honest picture, IMO social media is presenting an distorted picture, because bad news attract attention.

[thailazer]

Sorry to hear that, I hope it was not too bad, and everything is OK now. my neighbor also had a bit of a reaction, her arm hurt for a week , but she is better now. Not sure which one she got, but it was before J&J was available so it had to be either the Pfizer otr the Moderna. My brother in law is very allergic to shellfish and some other things, , he was told that he is better of taking the J&J because it has less side effects.

It is good that we all post our experience, so we can get a honest picture, IMO social media is presenting an distorted picture, because bad news attract attention.

Had no reaction at all with the first Moderna shot. No pain, no rash, and less effects than a flu shot which I try to get every year. Will get the second one this coming Friday so will see how that one goes.

[harrybarracuda]

Had no reaction at all with the first Moderna shot. No pain, no rash, and less effects than a flu shot which I try to get every year. Will get the second one this coming Friday so will see how that one goes.

The only one that has something noticeable is AZ, about which most of the people I know complained of flu-like symptoms knocking them out for a day after the second jab.

After I posted that the UAE are now giving Sinopharm victims a third jab, I bumped into one of our marketing folk who had the Sinopharm a few months back, and asked him if he'd had his antibody test (he had). Mine after Pfizer? 1380. His after the chinky shit? 179.

Maybe still enough to keep you from dying, but if you have the choice go elsewhere.

[Slick]

Yeah my employer is offering free chink shots in Dubai when we rotate through and I’m gonna give that shit a pass.

Holding out for any of the western ones in Thailand after I return in a few months, if available privately. Me & the wife will get them.

As as aside, there’s been tons of guys here that have tested positive and never even knew they had it. Several outbreaks in camps and barely anyone got more than the sniffles and chills, and would have never even known it was covid until they got tests for travel and immigration laws. Shit is everywhere.

Im gonna get an antibody test after this trip. I’ll be shocked if I haven’t already caught the shit at some point. Even shared a room with a dude who was later found positive trying to fly home. Never felt sick and neither did I.

[misskit]

Had no reaction at all with the first Moderna shot. No pain, no rash, and less effects than a flu shot which I try to get every year. Will get the second one this coming Friday so will see how that one goes.

Second vaccine at the same place is when mine reacted. I’ve heard (no verification) getting the second jab in the opposite arm keeps the rash from happening.

[harrybarracuda]

Yeah my employer is offering free chink shots in Dubai when we rotate through and I’m gonna give that shit a pass.

They have Pfizer in the UAE I would ask for that.

[harrybarracuda]

That is fucking funny.

As if their shit is worth anything.

The China-made vaccine is becoming the ticket to enter the mainland.


China said it will ease visa application requirements for foreigners seeking to enter the mainland from Hong Kong if they have been inoculated with Covid-19 vaccines made in China.


The new rule will take effect on Monday to resume “people-to-people exchanges between China and other countries in an orderly manner,” according to a government announcement Friday.


Foreigners visiting the mainland for work will face less paperwork in visa applications if they are able to show they have received vaccines produced in China. With the vaccine certificates, these travelers will also be able to skip the requirement for a Covid-19 test or fill out a travel declaration form.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

[misskit]

States Are Finding More Unreported Covid-19 Deaths


While Covid-19 deaths head lower, raising hopes that the U.S. is turning a corner as vaccinations continue, states around the country are steadily finding previously unreported deaths that are causing data confusion.


The issues largely involve systems that states are using to try to report Covid-19 data in near real time, and not deaths reported more slowly through death certificates. These front-line numbers are the ones that fuel state dashboards and data trackers, like the closely watched one created by Johns Hopkins University, which help policy makers and the public closely monitor pandemic trends.


Ohio in February announced more than 4,000 additional deaths while reconciling its data, and Indiana added about 1,500. Smaller revisions have also recently come from Virginia, Minnesota and Rhode Island. On Thursday, authorities in West Virginia said medical providers hadn’t properly reported 168 deaths to the state’s public-health department.

MORE States Are Finding More Unreported Covid-19 Deaths - WSJ

[harrybarracuda]

The Tourism and Sports Ministry announced a more relaxed mandatory quarantine scheme last week called "Area Quarantine", which is scheduled to be ready on April 1.

Under the plan, vaccinated tourists are required to quarantine for only seven days instead of two weeks within hotel areas. After one week, they can travel to any province.

Those who have not been inoculated must spend 10 days in quarantine, but they are entitled to roam around restricted areas within the property.

Specific areas of the country, such as islands, are joining the pilot project. Most are destinations in the South, which are heavily reliant on international markets.

The move is seen as the first step before opening Thai borders to the world with quarantine-free entry in October.

But is this endeavour worth the effort? Or will it be another failed attempt like the special tourist visa (STV) scheme that required visitors to go through complicated procedures and was very costly? Will it win the approval of local communities? The "Phuket Model" was undone last year because locals were not convinced it was safe.

The most important question is whether this scheme provides sustainable growth for tourism when the nation lags other countries in providing a mass vaccination programme.

Dillip Rajakarier, group chief executive at Minor International, said Thailand needs to take the right steps to open up to tourism, starting with inoculating the population until herd immunity is achieved.

"If we look at other countries where mass vaccination has progressed well, such as the UK where 30% of the population has been vaccinated, they made it a priority to ensure their people are safe before easing travel restrictions," he said.

Mr Rajakarier said the first step is the most important, so it urges the government to speed up Thailand's vaccination programme, as this is the safest method in which to reopen the country. Mass inoculation is needed before granting quarantine-free entry for vaccinated tourists, he said.

However, the number of vaccine doses the government has ordered falls far short for a population of nearly 70 million, said Mr Rajakarier.

Private hospitals and companies are pleading with the government to allow them to import vaccines independently to distribute them either to employees or people who can afford to purchase them, but numerous obstacles remain preventing local communities from gaining herd immunity quickly.

He said Minor Group is ready to allocate a vaccine budget for its employees, but it cannot obtain vaccines as hospitals are barred from attaining regulatory approval. The average prices from vaccine manufacturers in the Thai private sector are higher than in other countries, said Mr Rajakarier.

To hasten the process, he suggested Thailand's Food and Drug Administration expedite the approval of more vaccines that have already received the green light from national public health agencies in other developed countries such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US.

"Thailand should urgently consider more vaccine options from other manufacturers around the world," said Mr Rajakarier.

Once herd immunity is achieved and the quarantine-free option is available, the government should prepare an efficient Covid-19 passport, making sure the country adopts the digital technology required to facilitate seamless entry, he said.

One option is the International Air Transport Association (IATA) travel pass.

"Vaccines help generate more confidence locally, but the country should start a reopening scheme gently with low-risk countries or those that have successfully initiated a mass vaccination programme," said Bangkok Airways president Puttipong Prasarttong-Osoth.

The government must realise offering quarantine-free travel is essential to helping the tourism
industry rebound, said Mr Puttipong. As long as a mandatory quarantine is in place, there will be fewer opportunities to attract foreign travellers, he said.

Even as airlines are eager for international passengers to support their bottom line, they want the government to take an approach that balances public confidence in the country's health and safety measures with their need to generate revenue, said Mr Puttipong.

He said the government should consider adopting a technology-based mechanism that identifies vaccinated visitors, such as IATA's travel pass.

The IATA pass is an application that can facilitate international travel and airlines want the Thai government to take the lead in ensuring everyone follows the same regulations.

Association of Domestic Travel vice-president Chotechuang Soorangura said mandatory quarantine made it virtually impossible for most holidaymakers worldwide to make any plans.

Many countries are looking to create their own vaccine passports, with Thailand and China announcing certificates just last week. The real breakthrough for international tourism will occur once the World Health Organization (WHO) approves the guidelines for vaccine passports, said Mr Chotechuang.

"Each country is inoculating their population using various vaccines from different manufacturers. To create the utmost confidence, guidelines from WHO plus efficient digital tools are necessary to restart cross-border trips again," he said.

Thailand could start a test run for a quarantine-free scheme by first selecting tourist origin countries that have strong demand to travel and a good diplomatic relationship with Thailand, said Mr Chotechuang. That means signing a travel bubble agreement with China as well as Japan, which both have healthy tourism exchanges with Thailand in recent years, he said.

In 2019, Chinese travellers dominated the Thai tourism market, accounting for 10 million visitors, while 1.8 million Japanese visited the country.

In terms of outbound travel, over 1.3 million Thais visited Japan, which is dubbed the all-time favourite destination among Thai travellers.

"A partnership with China is possible because Thailand is always considered the preferred destination among Chinese travellers and there's a lot of pent-up demand, while a deal with Japan is feasible as Thailand is a big market for them," said Mr Chotechuang.

He said any agreement should be mutually beneficial and Thailand should not back down on its strict entry requirements.

"The quarantine requirement has proven to be unpopular. Even though the government tried to introduce more relaxed options such as a villa quarantine, the number of guests entering the country via that scheme proved to be just a drop in the ocean," said Mr Chotechuang.

Since Thailand reopened its borders to specific groups with restrictions and issued STVs with a mandatory quarantine last year, only 10,822 foreign visitors arrived in the country between October and December.

The seven-day quarantine for vaccinated foreigners may not be a great option if Thailand wants to benefit from mass inoculations worldwide to boost its economy, said the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).

The new quarantine period is still thought to be too long.

"Many countries allow vaccinated people to travel more freely. If we require a seven-day quarantine, the FTI believes vaccinated travellers will not come to Thailand," said FTI chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree. "We would lose an opportunity to restore our economy."

European countries launched the Digital Green Pass, allowing vaccinated people to travel more freely.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking has urged the Thai government to speed up its decision on a vaccine passport scheme.

The prime minster is reluctant to adopt a vaccine passport scheme as critics are concerned over the efficacy of certain vaccines. He told the Foreign Affairs Ministry to study the issue.

The government must weigh the need to prevent further outbreaks of Covid-19 with efforts at economic recovery in a way that "corresponds with the direction" around the world, said Mr Supant.

Many countries support a vaccine passport and others have begun to relax their quarantine procedures, he said.

Thailand should reduce the quarantine period to three days or eliminate quarantine for vaccinated travelers, said Mr Supant. The government should carefully consider the survival of business during the pandemic, he said.

"Foreign businessmen and high-end tourists want to come to Thailand if they are allowed free movement with a vaccination certificate," said Mr Supant. "Business people often come for a short visit."

If the government is worried about Covid-19 transmission, it could require foreigners to use a mobile app that allows authorities to be alerted to their whereabouts, he said.

Jareeporn Jarukornsakul, chairwoman and group chief executive of WHA Corporation, said last year many foreign companies wanted the government to reduce the quarantine period to 1-3 days.

Investors are not tourists, so they cannot stay in state quarantine for a long time because this could affect their business, she said.

"Thailand's path to economic recovery will mostly depend on the tourism industry outlook and when the country reopens to foreign tourist arrivals. Covid-19 vaccines and the reopening policy of each country will have a significant impact on the recovery of Thailand's tourism industry in 2021," said Kevalin Wangpichayasuk, assistant managing director of Kasikorn Research Center.

The development of vaccination programmes in tourist origin countries and Thailand are key factors determining the tourism recovery outlook, said Ms Kevalin.

"Other crucial factors are whether Thailand's quarantine period is reduced, clarity on vaccine passport policy and whether countries will allow their citizens to travel to Thailand," she said.
The think tank's forecast of 2 million foreign tourist arrivals is based on the progress of vaccination programmes in 10 countries the comprise the bulk of arrivals in Thailand such as China, European countries, Japan and the US. It is also based on the inoculation timeline announced by the Thai government.

The projection of 2 million foreign arrivals is quite low, meaning tourism must still rely on domestic travellers for revenue, said Ms Kevalin.

Routes to recovery

[harrybarracuda]

The UK approaching 24m vaccinations.

The US goes past 107m.

[panama hat]

The UK approaching 24m vaccinations.

The US goes past 107m.

New Zealand surging forward with 18.000 vaccinations . . . next shipment unknown.

[Iceman123]

Oz has vaccinated 164k in 3 weeks, just a tad shy of the 200k per day required to hit the October target.

[harrybarracuda]

British Airways is planning a version of a coronavirus vaccine passport to help passengers travel abroad easily — amid growing optimism the UK will be back to normal by summer. The airline plans to allow customers who have had two injections to register their status by uploading vaccine details on its smartphone app. Chief executive Sean Doyle said: ‘For us, it’s quite simple. I think people who’ve been vaccinated should be able to travel without restriction, and those who have not been vaccinated should be able to travel with a negative test result.’

Read more: British Airways to roll out digital vaccine passports for passengers | Metro News

[cyrille]

There ya go joe - your favourite source.

Is there still nobody going away on holiday this year, in your expert opinion?

[Buckaroo Banzai]

Under the plan, vaccinated tourists are required to quarantine for only seven days instead of two weeks within hotel areas. After one week, they can travel to any province.

What do they mean by "Hotel areas "? do they mean hotel grounds (still an improvement over being locked up in a room) , Or do they mean the area that the hotel is located, such as Krabi, or Kho Chang, etc. for instance. I would not mind spending a week or so in Kho Chang .
But the hotel Grounds would not be so bad , if we can find a hotel with nice big grounds and perhaps a nice restaurant.

[HuangLao]

What do they mean by "Hotel areas "? do they mean hotel grounds (still an improvement over being locked up in a room) , Or do they mean the area that the hotel is located, such as Krabi, or Kho Chang, etc. for instance. I would not mind spending a week or so in Kho Chang .
But the hotel Grounds would not be so bad , if we can find a hotel with nice big grounds and perhaps a nice restaurant.

Limited to the designated ASQ facilities within BKK Metro [which are numerous now].
Per Harry's article reference and a few others from the last couple of days - they've seem to have settled on some official plan....maybe.

April through September - required seven day quarantine [down from the previous and long-standing 2-weeks] regardless of vaccination status. Complete, one is free to go where you wish.
October is the date they are setting for full opening - in theory.

I believe this new policy is largely directed for the safety of the Thai population, more or less - by October, they're suggesting that a goodly percentage of Thais will be vaccinated.

And they're still quite slow towards the instigations of domestic vaccinations.....already processing in some circles.
Should of had this in order a couple of months ago instead of the usual Thai political clusterfuck wishy-washy uncertainty.

[Buckaroo Banzai]

Limited to the designated ASQ facilities within BKK Metro [which are numerous now].
Per Harry's article reference and a few others from the last couple of days - they've seem to have settled on some official plan....maybe.

April through September - required seven day quarantine [down from the previous and long-standing 2-weeks] regardless of vaccination status. Complete, one is free to go where you wish.
October is the date they are setting for full opening - in theory.

I believe this new policy is largely directed for the safety of the Thai population, more or less - by October, they're suggesting that a goodly percentage of Thais will be vaccinated.

And they're still quite slow towards the instigations of domestic vaccinations.....already processing in some circles.
Should of had this in order a couple of months ago instead of the usual Thai political clusterfuck wishy-washy uncertainty.

Thank you for that reply
If in BKK , then I assume they mean free to move with in the hotel grounds. I wish they had some in Krabi, or some of the Islands,
If that is the case how do I find an ASQ property with extensive grounds and a good restaurant. Any suggestions?
If indeed the article is true, (they meet the 19th for an official decision) , As soon as we take care of some business here in the US and the wife is vaccinated. we are out of here. Wife is calling shipping companies today. We are shooting for end of April. earlier if we can.

[harrybarracuda]

What do they mean by "Hotel areas "? do they mean hotel grounds (still an improvement over being locked up in a room) , Or do they mean the area that the hotel is located, such as Krabi, or Kho Chang, etc. for instance. I would not mind spending a week or so in Kho Chang .
But the hotel Grounds would not be so bad , if we can find a hotel with nice big grounds and perhaps a nice restaurant.

It could be anything and until there is an official announcement it will probably be interpreted many different ways.

So I'd hold fire until there is a cabinet meeting, they agree something and it looks like it will be implemented.

There are too many underlings making semi-official announcements at the moment: Only one voice matters.

[cyrille]

And they're still quite slow towards the instigations of domestic vaccinations.....already processing in some circles.

Blimey, even vaccinations are doing that 'circling' you're always on about.

[Happy As Larry]

Thank you for that reply
If in BKK , then I assume they mean free to move with in the hotel grounds. I wish they had some in Krabi, or some of the Islands,
If that is the case how do I find an ASQ property with extensive grounds and a good restaurant. Any suggestions?
If indeed the article is true, (they meet the 19th for an official decision) , As soon as we take care of some business here in the US and the wife is vaccinated. we are out of here. Wife is calling shipping companies today. We are shooting for end of April. earlier if we can.

Check this link. I did have the government link bookmarked somewhere but of coure caan't find it now.
List of Alternative State Quarantine Hotels in Thailand - ASQ Thailand - ASQ Thailand

[Troy]

April through September - required seven day quarantine [down from the previous and long-standing 2-weeks] regardless of vaccination status. Complete, one is free to go where you wish.

Wife and I can live with one week quarantine and then travel to the village. Hope they settle on this idea.