Thaksin at odds with reds over call for justice - The Nation
Analysis
Thaksin at odds with reds over call for justice
Avudh Panananda
The Nation May 22, 2012 1:00 am
The message on reconciliation from former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is crystal clear but the outcome of any such efforts is still in a state of flux.
In a few short remarks to the red-shirt rally on Saturday, Thaksin outlined how his future would hinge on mending fences.
"Should reconciliation happen, I will have an opportunity to serve my fellow Thai citizens," he said.
"If you don't want to reconcile, I don't mind living abroad. But you should think who would benefit from the continuing fight because only arms merchants will become rich."
To his critics, Thaksin has confirmed he equates reconciliation with his amnesty. Repairing damage caused by political conflict will pave the way for him to return to public service as well as help absolve legal issues hurled at him since the 2006 coup.
If and when the amnesty debate kicks off, his supporters have to ensure the passage of a complex set of legislation in order to repeal his fugitive status and wipe the legal slate clean for a fresh start.
The new charter has to renounce the power seizure and expunge coup-initiated legal action against Thaksin. The amnesty provisions have to address his conviction, punishment, pending trials, ongoing probes and asset seizure.
If Thaksin aspires to hold office again, his amnesty has to cancel his two-year jail term as well as return Bt46 billion in seized assets. In fact, the prison sentence is seen as a lesser hurdle than the asset seizure. While there are a number of ways for Thaksin to overcome his jail term, he has to have his assets returned and the record of them being seized expunged. He cannot return to be prime minister or a member of Cabi-net without that matter being annulled - people holding such posts must not have their assets seized due to unusual wealth.
Previous two prime ministers, Sarit Thanarat and Thanom Kittikachorn, failed to secure the return of assets that were seized.
Meanwhile, Thaksin's critic Sondhi Limthongkul has scheduled Saturday to launch a political talk show designed to raise awareness about political reforms. This is seen as a renewed struggle to block an amnesty for Thaksin.
The pro- and anti-Thaksin camps have started to try and outwit each other in a proxy fight via the charter change.
To clear Thaksin's name, his supporters have to dominate the charter rewriting process. His critics are equally determined to block every step of the way over the next 10 months, eight of which will be taken up drafting the new constitution, while two will be needed for a referendum vote.
It is noteworthy that Thaksin's downfall in 2005 was triggered by his family's sale of telecom shares. Opposition grew in leaps and bounds because many saw the whopping Bt76-billion sale as a plunder of national assets.
A hasty attempt to get his wealth back may land Thaksin in trouble once again.
The main thrust of his phone-in speech on Saturday, however, was aimed at the red shirts. By pleading for his red allies to rally behind reconciliation to facilitate a speedy homecoming for himself, Thaksin has conceded that significant numbers of his allies oppose moves toward reconciliation - at the expense of uncovering the truth behind the political strife in 2010. But for red-shirt leaders at the Ratchaprasong rally, their key message was a demand for justice over the bloodshed. No-one talked about bringing Thaksin home.
On the issue of reconciliation, it is clear that Thaksin and his red allies are not on the same page.
Thaksin wants the red shirts to let bygones be bygones. But the reds insist on uncovering the truth about their blood spilled before this occurs.
It will be interesting indeed to see how Thaksin will appease his allies, and critics, in a bid to secure an amnesty, and his other personal goals.