Thread: The Greenback

^ It's all speculation at this point.
The dollar is likely to swing back up with the drop of oil prices.
The baht should be showing signs of weakness with the current political instability.

The USA is about to make an escalation in Iraq which will have an effect.
I suspect a strengthening effect for the dollar.

If it goes to back to 38 call it good.

Also keep in mind that just before the 1993 asian crash the baht was at 25 to the dollar.

I think it's a difficult call

Also the effect of what's going on with the euro has something to do with the strength of the dollar which I don't, understand.
European economies are tanking compared to how the US is performing. So why the euro is so strong I don't get.

Anyway I'm rambling I wish i had a crystal ball!

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

If it goes to back to 38 call it good.

Well, I probably have a three month window.

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

Also keep in mind that just before the 1993 asian crash the baht was at 25 to the dollar.

So, are you anticipating another crash? If so, a Thai Baht crash or a US Dollar crash?

Originally Posted by Anonymous Coward

So, are you anticipating another crash? If so, a Thai Baht crash or a US Dollar crash?

I think they have the safeguards in place to prevent something so dramatic.
But if the baht get too strong it will have bad consequences for tourism, exports, and foreign investment. here's a good site to play with if you want to drive yourself crazy! The historical lookups are fun!

Originally Posted by Mr Earl

The historical lookups are fun!

Yeah, fun in the "If only I'd known" sort of way.

The only time I ever made a bundle on FX was when Japan allowed the Yen to float maybe 20 years ago. I heard about this on a Sunday evening over short wave radio while living on Saipan. (Pre-Internet, of course.) Early the next day (Monday) I went to a bank that often had big supplies of Yen. I bought all I could afford at the old rate. I was just about to vacation in Japan and couldn't have afforded the trip at the new rate.

Luckily, advanced information saved the day and we enjoyed spending our discounted Yen.

Originally Posted by kingwillyhggtb

Originally Posted by Begbie

Originally Posted by kingwillyhggtb

its a simple enuff equation innit?

Dont spend more than you make.

ppl and countries sometimes forget this.

Didn't take long for the present owner to screw things up. Americans must be nostalgic for the good old days of Bill Clinton when the economy was run by professionals.

dont quite agree with that statement.... clinton was lucky to ride a wave of prosperous economic times....

quite a few analysts would tell u he caused quite a bit of the mess....

he might have been a world diplomat and a womanizer.... but economist he werent!

yes clinton started it going big time with his signing of the NAFTA bill, then things really went down hill and the main export from USA was jobs and manufacturing capacity, now with the advent of GE rice being banned in most countrys about 1/4 of US exports have stopped, Most of the chip business was sold to japan and for years Japan has been buying up the business's of the US, if it was that they could not just steal the idea or buy it, then they came in and bought the whole thing, company and all.Now with china coming into world markets as an exporting country that is exporting other things than illegal aliens into the US their trade surplus is enormous and leaves the US holding the sack.
Everything that is used and most of what is eaten in the US is imported or foreign owned, Farmers couldn't make a profit on beef ranches and the Japs bought the rancher out, gave him a job running the ranch and do it at a profit, of coarse they are now importing their beef from Jap owned interests in the US.

It it wasn't for the expensive oil, the USD would be even lower and it would be a complete disaster.

Very true, almost half of oil used in the US is domestic oil owned by US companys, with the oil going from $25 to $75 forced by foreign oil imports the US oil companys have helped to up their profits by 66%, that is money into their pockets tho, not into the treasury, but anyway that is dollars kept in the US instead of adding onto the trade deficite, which is over 20 billion with China alone.
The US has fucked its self by exporting jobs and manufacturing capacity to offshore places, Japan came in and took over or built mfg. plants to build their cars and shipped most of the work done to build them and support their infrastructure offshore.
There is no quick fix.

^ do you speak English ?

Originally Posted by floorpotato

After helping ruin the U.S. dollar by promoting huge federal deficits, President Cheney has made a $10-$25 million bet against the dollar by personally investing in BEGBX (American Century Int'l Bond fund), a European currency fund.

In mid-2002, Bush--a former businessman who, if not exactly successful, was nevertheless wealthy--liquidated his substantial asset portfolio. He then handed the money to a trustee, who now invests the money without Bush's knowledge. This is a true blind trust, because all Bush knows about the money is how much he put in. In fact, Bush won't know anything about where his money is, or whether it has grown or shrunk, until he leaves office in 2009.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w050926&s=risen093005

In the spring of 2000, Geroge W. Bush asked Cheney to join the Republican ticket as the candidate for vice president. Cheney then resigned as CEO of Halliburton and put his shares into a blind trust. Cheney's net worth is estimated at between $30 million and $100 million.

Dick Cheney: Greedy, powerful and mean - one of the biggest political stars at MondoStars.com

Some good insight here. The Fed's surprise 0.5% rate cut helps the domestic equity markets and exporters. Sure, the greenback, or any ccurrency, falls in international markets on a rate cut, as people shift funds to higher interest-bearing investments. A few other notes: war is good for economies outside of where the bombing is, of course: the US defense industry and its feeder markets are booming. Who flippin cares if Iran decides to use a Euro standard? Currently, there is too much invested in the US for any major country to pull out lock, stock and barrel, as they would lose big time in many ways.
Domestically, the US economy is being dragged down by the housing market slump, largely because of the sub-prime market (loans given on 5% or even 0% downpayments), which is reeling from foreclosures. And when housing orders dwindle, it affects many other industries, from tool makers to toilet manufacturers and home decor suppliers.
Sure, world opinion also affects the dollar's value, but big market-moving currency traders don't give a bulltwat about that (ie, George Soros and investment banks).
I'm keeping my US$ account as is for now. It might trade lower for a few months, but you never know. You can reference economic fundamentals and do technical analysis, and then, boom! something happens that feks up everyones' theories, like the 1929 market crash. That's what makes life fun.

Originally Posted by Texpat

Originally Posted by floorpotato

After helping ruin the U.S. dollar by promoting huge federal deficits, President Cheney has made a $10-$25 million bet against the dollar by personally investing in BEGBX (American Century Int'l Bond fund), a European currency fund.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w050926&s=risen093005
In the spring of 2000, Geroge W. Bush asked Cheney to join the Republican ticket as the candidate for vice president. Cheney then resigned as CEO of Halliburton and put his shares into a blind trust. Cheney's net worth is estimated at between $30 million and $100 million.
Dick Cheney: Greedy, powerful and mean - one of the biggest political stars at MondoStars.com

Texpat, I try very hard try to use due diligence with my facts. The info on Cheney's personal holdings are from the following MSN Money/Kiplinger story. Perhaps the trust isn't quite as blind as it seems. Not that MSN is gospel, but the following story seems to confirm Cheney's personal bet against the dollar that he's helped ruin:

Cheneys betting on bad news? - MSN Money

I saw that story too. It inferrs Cheney knows what is being invested on his behalf. Don't know which I believe.

BTW this is exactly how Taksin got his ass in a sling. Tried to be a PM and businessman at the same time. But Cheney is small-potatoes comparitively at <100M. Taksin was well over 1B.

^ A Blind Trust is a tax dodge or a means to put assets at arms length, pure and simple. Of course the Grantor knows how his assets are invested. More often than not, he makes the decisions, although not 'legally'.
I have set up many of these things, in several jurisdictions, and been paid well for it.

This is complicated stuff and I don't know a lot about it, but I like reading about it. Other countries have reduced their currency reserve hold of the U.S. dollar. There are economic reasons, and perhaps also a lack of confidence in the US dollar. The 3 links below have decent articles, too. Anyone care to give me some info and insights? Thanks

Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:12am BST 04/10/2007


Vietnam is planning to cut its purchases of US Treasuries and other dollar bonds, raising fears that Asian central banks with control over two thirds of the world's foreign reserves may soon join the flight from US assets.



Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright
China threatens `nuclear option' of dollar sales
Jump off the deranged bull now
The Saigon Times said this morning that the State Bank of Vietnam was abandoning the attempt to hold down the Vietnamese currency through heavy purchases of dollars. The policy is causing the economy to overheat, driving up inflation to 8.8pc.

Entire: Dollar's double blow from Vietnam and Qatar - Telegraph

Weak monetary is the policy being pushed by the yanks. I dare say when they want it to rise, it will rise.

A lot of people are turning to the Euro as a safer reserve currency. The US dollar is becoming a increasingly unstable currency to hold large reserves in.

A declining and weak dollar makes foreign investment more optimal. The US is for sale.

January 20, 2008
Overseas Investors Buy U.S. Holdings at a Record Pace

By PETER S. GOODMAN and LOUISE STORY
Last May, a Saudi Arabian conglomerate bought a Massachusetts plastics maker. In November, a French company established a new factory in Adrian, Mich., adding 189 automotive jobs to an area accustomed to layoffs. In December, a British company bought a New Jersey maker of cough syrup.


For much of the world, the United States is now on sale at discount prices. With credit tight, unemployment growing and worries mounting about a potential recession, American business and government leaders are courting foreign money to keep the economy growing. Foreign investors are buying aggressively, taking advantage of American duress and a weak dollar to snap up what many see as bargains, while making inroads to the world’s largest market.


Last year, foreign investors poured a record $414 billion into securing stakes in American companies, factories and other properties through private deals and purchases of publicly traded stock, according to Thomson Financial, a research firm. That was up 90 percent from the previous year and more than double the average for the last decade. It amounted to more than one-fourth of all announced deals for the year, Thomson said.
During the first two weeks of this year, foreign businesses agreed to invest another $22.6 billion for stakes in American companies — more than half the value of all announced deals. If a recession now unfolds and the dollar drops further, the pace could accelerate, economists say.


The surge of foreign money has injected fresh tension into a running debate about America’s place in the global economy. It has supplied state governors with a new development strategy — attracting foreign money. And it has reinvigorated sometimes jingoistic worries about foreigners securing control of America’s fortunes, a narrative last heard in the 1980s as Americans bought up Hondas and Rockefeller Center landed in Japanese hands.

With a growing share of investment coming from so-called sovereign wealth funds — vast pools of money controlled by governments from China to the Middle East — lawmakers and regulators are calling for greater scrutiny to ensure that foreign countries do not gain influence over the financial system or military-related technology.

Entire: Overseas Investors Buy U.S. Holdings at a Record Pace - New York Times

Could be a sign the dollar has bottomed out if foriegn investors are starting to pile in.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Time to invade Iran

Heh...I'd green you but I'm out.

On the china cctv news today it said that China is holding, now I just heard this and it might be wrong,, 3 Trillion dollars worth of the stuff.

But I can believe it as the trade defecit is very large.

^ I think China's holdings are largely in the Treasuries market.

The US is becoming a bargain, I guess GW Bush did accomplish something at the end,

with all the Saudis, Asians coming to their rescue and saving their banking system, it's going to put upward pressure on the dollars eventually

last time in 2003, it was the reverse, when Saudis money was "kicked out" of the US and out of Treasury Bonds etc...

so instead the Saudis kept their oil in the ground since they couldn't invest the proceeds anyway in USD, so no incentive to pump more, and now with the lower USD and interest rates of the USD, they have even less incentive to pump that oil out of the ground.

And you wonder now why oil is 100 USD

Originally Posted by Butterfly

And you wonder now why oil is 100 USD

I get your point but fortunatley today its 88$

This 30 baht per litre price was starting to feel like the uk

I get your point but fortunatley today its 88$

and if someone had tried to tell you you'd be happy at 88/barrell a year ago your answer would of been ??

^ Still happy, most of my savings are in gold stocks, gold rises with oil most of the time when the dollar falls. It was obvious a year ago that sub prime was gonna mess up the US economy and weaken the dollar. Nobody should be too surprised at the high price of oil these days but has every right not to be happy about it.