Thread: Any doubts about Climate Change?

Originally Posted by S Landreth

NASA climate study warns of unprecedented North American drought

Icecap comments:
''First the authors admit it happened before in 12th and 13th century. So such a thing is not unprecedented. Indeed, droughts have multiyear and longer variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought were the most widespread twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the 12th Century exceeded anything in the 20th Century in both spatial extent and duration.
Second, it is based on model simulations - the same models that have failed in every projection since the 1990s. Third the drought in Texas that they said was unprecedented was nothing like the multi year drought of the 1950s. Fourth the Calfirnia drought is related to the warm water off the west coast as an after effect of the super La Nina of 2010/11 which led to cold water there and warm to the west that migrated to the west coast. It will be gone in a year and rains will return. In fact this rainy season though not the heavy wet El Nino is running near normal for rains in the northern parts of California and the Sierra though snowpack lags. There wil be more episodic rains and snows and a slow exit from the drought can be expected the next year or so.''cap.us/

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Sorry, Climate Change Deniers: Warming Not “Paused” and Modeling Not Flawed

February 2, 2015 | by Lisa Winter
Photo credit: MPI for Meteorology / Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)
Though 97% of climate scientists agree that human-driven climate change exists, there are still a number of people who deny that claim. The reasons for their dissent are varied, but many claim that the warming of the Earth has actually paused, and apparent increases in global temperature are caused by flawed climate models that overestimate facts. While previous studies have already refuted the idea of “paused” global warming, a new paper in Nature by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology in Hamburg has concluded that most climate models are not flawed, and global temperatures are still very much on the rise.
Since 2000, the Earth’s average surface temperature has increased by 0.06° C; a fraction of what was predicted by the IPCC during the 1990s. This apparent plateau has been used as ammunition by climate deniers who accuse scientists of over-inflating results from climate models. Marotzke and Forster’s new paper analyzes the methodologies of climate models, revealing no inherent flaws in the models, even when they don’t match observations. They also conclude that this century’s slight increase in surface temperature, which deniers are labeling as a “pause,” is actually due to natural climate fluctuations. Many other metrics, including ocean temperature, show that the climate is indeed changing.
“The claim that climate models systematically overestimate global warming caused by rising greenhouse gas concentrations is wrong,” Marotzke said in a press release.
Marotzke and Forster analyzed 114 models by comparing their predictions of annual global surface temperatures in 15 year periods from 1900-2012 against the actual temperature recorded for that year. When these predicted numbers were compared to the actual temperature, they found that the models did a pretty good job. For the most part, the predictions were +/- 0.3° C of the observed temperature. This effectively absolved the models of having fundamental flaws that overestimate the climate's response to atmospheric carbon dioxide.
“On the whole, the simulated trends agree with the observations,” Marotzke continued. “In particular, the observed trends are not skewed in any discernible way compared to the simulations.”
Of course, that doesn’t mean every model is perfect; otherwise they would all match one another as well as observed data. The researchers then compared the models by examining the factors and values that the models considered or assumed, in search of an explanation of why the numbers weren’t aligning. They found that differing models used different degrees of sensitivity to solar radiation and had different assumptions about the amount of heat absorbed by the oceans, which would alter surface temperature predictions. However, even the models that were the most sensitive to carbon dioxide didn’t lead to a prediction that was drastically overestimated, as climate deniers have claimed.
“If excessive sensitivity of the models caused the models to calculate too great a temperature trend over the past 15 years, the models that assume a high sensitivity would calculate a greater temperature trend than the others,” Forster noted.
The researchers concluded that random variations, which cannot be accurately accounted for within computer simulations, are responsible for models and observation not matching up. It is also clear that the climate is definitely warming, with 2014 dubbed as the warmest year on record, and that nine out of the ten hottest years ever have occurred since 2000.


Sorry, Climate Change Deniers: Warming Not ?Paused? and Modeling Not Flawed | IFLScience

Al Gore Wealth Nears Mitt Romney Level - Business Insider

Over the last decade and a half, former Vice President Al Gore has amassed a personal fortune that rivals former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's, Bloomberg's Ken Wells and Ari Levy report.

Gore wasn't even a multi-millionaire when he ran for office against George W. Bush in the 2000 election, but several recent moves have put his personal fortune at a point where it "may exceed $200 million," according to Bloomberg:



Read more: Al Gore Wealth Nears Mitt Romney Level - Business Insider

Originally Posted by pseudolus

Al Gore Wealth Nears Mitt Romney Level - Business Insider

Over the last decade and a half, former Vice President Al Gore has amassed a personal fortune that rivals former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's, Bloomberg's Ken Wells and Ari Levy report.

Gore wasn't even a multi-millionaire when he ran for office against George W. Bush in the 2000 election, but several recent moves have put his personal fortune at a point where it "may exceed $200 million," according to Bloomberg:



Read more: Al Gore Wealth Nears Mitt Romney Level - Business Insider

Biggest scam foisted on the world's population in history.

Gore lying (as usual). This time was about his plans with Ponzi Scheme specialist Ken Lay from Enron on making millions from carbon trading. Of course its not about Carbon trading. It's about trading the derivatives on it that is getting the Bankers pushing this so excited.

Friends like Ken Lay who needs enemas.

Originally Posted by S Landreth

It’s not starting off well this year. From JMA,……….

NOAA’s numbers should be out shortly.

Well it isn’t good news,……….

Hottest 12 Months On Record Globally Thanks To Warm January, Reports NASA

In January, the planet continued the warming trend that made 2014 the hottest calendar year on record. NASA reports that last month was the second-hottest January on record (after 2007), while the Japan Meteorological Agency ranked it the hottest.

Significantly, there has never been as hot a 12-month period in NASA’s database as the previous 12 months (February 2014–January 2015). This is using a 12-month moving average, so we can “see the march of temperature change over time,” rather than just once every calendar year.

While it has been cold for those of us living in a slice of the eastern and northeastern U.S., the rest of the country and the globe is quite warm, with large parts of North America and Asia experiencing nearly off-the-charts heat. That’s clear in the NASA chart below for January temperatures, whose upper range extends to a whopping 8.1°C (14.6°F) above the 1951-1980 average!

What’s remarkable is that we keep breaking the 12-month global temperature record even though we still haven’t started an El Niño. It is usually the combination of the underlying long-term warming trend and the regional El Niño warming pattern that leads to new global temperature records, as NASA has explained.

But the human-caused warming is simply too strong to be denied, as it were. If we want to slow it down and ultimately stop it before it destroys a livable climate, it will take some serious cuts in carbon pollution ASAP.

____________

And before some idiot posts some cherry picked graph showing that it hasn’t warmed in 18 years 007.842433 months (not land or sea), I’ll post the full graph from the remss.com site (satellite information) showing that it is warming in the troposphere.

if we are going back to a warming period , whats the evidence it's co2 caused?

LBJ's climate warning 50 years ago - do we have your attention yet?

Posted on 18 February 2015 by Glenn Tamblyn

An old saying in marketing and communications says: ‘Repeat it, and repeat it, and repeat it again. When you are tired of repeating it, people might just start to take notice’. Sometimes this can seem oh too true. Particularly where warnings about unexpected dangers are concerned.

In 1951 U.S. President Harry Truman established the Science Advisory Committee as part of the U.S. Office of Defense Mobilization. After the launch of Sputnik in 1957 President Eisenhower renamed it the President’s Science Advisory Committee and moved it into the White House.

The committee wrote many reports for U.S. presidents, often on defense issues. But they also produced a large report – ‘Restoring The Quality of Our Environment’ – tackling a wide range of environmental and pollution problems of the time.

Included within this report was a 23 page appendix, ‘Appendix Y4 – Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’.

This was the first official report to any government anywhere in the world on the possible challenge rising Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere might pose. The report was presented to President Lyndon Johnson in 1965;

Half a century ago!

President Johnson made a speech to Congress about the report, including a reference to rising CO2 levels.

Lyndon Baines Johnson, 36th President of the United States

Some of the insights in the report are resonant today

‘Within a few short centuries, we are returning to the air a significant part of the carbon that was extracted by plants and buried in the sediments during half a billion years’

‘Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years’

‘By the year 2000 the increase in CO2 will be close to 25%. This may be sufficient to produce measurable and perhaps marked changes in climate.’

‘The climate changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings.’

The report was far more circumspect than reports we would read today but still covered many familiar subjects. In addition to the possibility of warming air temperatures the report discussed issues such as the melting of the Antarctic ice cap, rising sea levels, less carbon in the soil, warming of the oceans and resultant carbon dioxide ‘outgassing’.

It even covered a what-if scenario; what if we need to find a way to cool the earth?

‘The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes therefore need to be thoroughly explored…for example by spreading very small reflecting particles over large oceanic areas’

They foresaw, half a century ago, the need for research that is currently being undertaken into ‘geoengineering’ to look for ways to artificially cool the earth if we don’t control our CO2 emissions.

One quote from the report is significant, referring to modelling of the climate:

‘A more comprehensive model is being developed by the U.S. Weather Bureau. This includes processes of convection and of latent heat transfer through the evaporation and condensation of water vapor’

Two years later, Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald published a scientific paper – ‘Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity’ – that built on previous work by them and others through the late 50’s and early 60’s. It is still regarded as the essentially correct description of the workings of the ‘greenhouse effect’ that warms the earth; it was their work the report was referring to.

Old science is Good Science

Listed in the references for the appendix are around three dozen scientific papers from the 50’s and early 60’s and even earlier, back to the 19th century. They cover the earliest research developing our understanding of how CO2 influences climate.

Many of the names may be familiar to aficionados of climate science history, but they are hardly household names: Manabe, Wetherald, Moller, Bolin, Lamb, Erickson, Broecker, Plass, Kaplan, Callender, Arrhenius, Chamberlain, Revelle, Suess, and Keeling.

These were some of the fathers of our modern understanding of climate and the role of CO2. Many of these early researchers are no longer here – Gilbert Plass died in 2004 and Richard Wetherald in 2011 – although Syukuro (‘Suki’) Manabe, now one of the Grand Old Men of Science, is still with us.

'Suki' Manabe today

One researcher needs special mention, simply because his words were so prescient. Professor Gilbert Plass was a physicist during the Cold War often working, as many others did, with military funding.

Gilbert Plass during the 50's

In the mid-50’s he was about the first person to use the newly emerging power of computers to do the detailed calculations needed to analyze how infra-red (heat) radiation moves through the atmosphere. He didn’t get everything right, in fact two of his errors essentially cancelled each other out. But he pioneered some of the basic research that led to Manabe and Wetherald’s results a decade later.

Plass predicted that a doubling of CO2 might cause warming of 3.6°C; that CO2 concentrations would be 30% higher in 2000 than in 1900; and that the earth would be about 1°C warmer in 2000 than in 1900.

His research culminated in the publication of his paper - ‘The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change’ - in the journal Tellus in 1956.

A rather evocative name!

That same year (1956) Gilbert Plass said:

‘If at the end of this century the average temperature has continued to rise and in addition measurement also shows that the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount has also increased, then it will be firmly established that carbon dioxide is a determining factor in causing climatic change.’

Since then measurements have shown that CO2 amounts have risen. And temperatures have risen. Roughly by the amounts Plass projected.

There ain't no hoax like an old hoax

Gilbert Plass’s paper contains an interesting credit: ‘This work was sponsored by the U.S. Office of Naval Research’.

The Office of Naval Research was one of the major funding agencies for US military research during the Cold War.

It is interesting to reflect. Two of the people most often vilified by so-called climate change skeptics are Al Gore, and James Hansen previously from NASA. In 1956, when Gilbert Plass wrote those words, Al Gore was 8 years old and James Hansen was 15 – still in high school.

For all those climate change ‘skeptics’ with conspiracy theories about climate change - that it is all some sort of recent, giant hoax – perhaps they might want to ask themselves some simple questions:

Why did presidents Truman and Eisenhower start this hoax at the height of the Cold War?
Why was the Office of Naval Research funding frauds like this?
Why start a hoax that takes half a century or more to play out and only reaches fruition after you are dead?
More seriously, how can half a century have passed since this first tentative warning; half a century of expanding science; far more certainty; more data; many, many, more people thinking about the problem and better warnings.

And yet we are still just tentatively thinking about maybe, perhaps, when we can get around to it, doing something about it? If we can fit it in to our busy schedule of economics, and business, and daily life and, you know, stuff?

What is it with us? If Gilbert Plass or ‘Suki’ Manabe could see the possibility of this half a century ago, why can’t we see it today?

Well what have we learnt in that half century?

Measurements from satellites have confirmed the understanding in Manabe & Wetherald’s paper. Since 1969 - the year Neil & Buzz landed on the moon - we have been observing the greenhouse effect from space and how it is changing.

Geologists and paleo-climatologists have examined the geological record of the last 500 million years; it shows that major climate changes, mass extinctions including the biggest extinctions ever recorded, and frightening disruptions to the chemistry of the oceans have occurred repeatedly. And CO2 played a major part in much of this. When CO2 levels change, climate changes, sometimes very, very, seriously. During the biggest mass extinction event ever, 252 million years ago, over 90% of species went extinct, as CO2 levels climbed hugely and temperatures rose; the tropical regions may well have been uninhabitable for most complex life.

And the rate of change of CO2 concentrations today is 10 to a 100 times faster than at any time in the last 500 million years. Humanity with our wondrous harnessing of technology are changing the world faster than just about any time in the past.

If we look back over the cycle of ice ages over the last 800,000 years for example we see CO2 concentrations in the air changing as the earth cools and warms, driven initially by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. Typically CO2 concentrations changed by ½ to 1 part per million (ppm) every century as the world slowly swung in and out of ice ages, contributing to the swings.

Today average CO2 levels change by 1 ppm every 20 weeks!

It’s no wonder that the International Commission on Stratigraphy, the peak geological body that sets the definitions for the boundaries between geological periods, is discussing the formalization of the next geological period. The ‘Anthropocene’ – the geological age of Man. When we truly leave our mark in the rocks for all of time!

The world is warming. Sea level is rising and the oceans are like the earth’s thermometer; just as a liquid expands and rises up a thermometer tube, so warming oceans expand and rise. And as well, all over the world, ice is melting.

Life on earth is responding. All over the world species are moving - Bluefin tuna are appearing in the Arctic for example. Seasons are shifting, flowering times are changing, pests are spreading like the Pine Bark Beetle in North America devastating pine forests; and agriculture is dealing with moving challenges.

And the scientists now understand the ‘carbon cycle’ in much more detail. If we release too much CO2 into the atmosphere, part of it will be removed naturally within a few decades. But, depending how much we release, it will take centuries, maybe 1000’s of years before atmospheric CO2 levels fully return to ‘normal’. And temperatures return to ‘normal’.

Everything we have learnt says this is real, serious and urgent. Go look in the rocks, they tell the story of what can happen when climate runs amok.

A new theme?

Historians often analyze history in terms of ‘themes’ – connecting narratives that let us make sense of things. Empire, Land, Religion, Technology, Culture, these are some of the themes.

Think back to the time of Christ, Julius Caesar, King Tutankhamen. Now imagine that all of history since then had been dominated by one theme, one topic. Climate. We are adding a new theme that may be the biggest narrative in history for thousands of years to come. Our descendants will most definitely remember us!

Don’t believe it? Go talk to the chemists studying the ‘carbon cycle’, or the changes in ‘carbonate saturation’ in the ocean. Or go talk to the geologists studying past climates. When the biggest mass extinction event occurred 252 million years ago, at the end of the Permian period, it left another mark. The Coal Gap. For 10 million years after the event, essentially no new coal was created. Because the forests that coal is formed from had been so devastated that it took them 10 million years to recover.

Go talk to the scientists! The inheritors of the mantle from Suki and Gilbert, Roger and Hans, Svante and Guy. Go talk to them. Because they are scared! They have been warning us for 2-3 generations. Warning us that we have a Very Big Problem and we need to do something about it.

We can solve it. There are 7 billion of us on this earth, 7 billion brains we can throw at solving anything. But the first step is to choose to do so. Until we really choose to act, really choose, we can’t solve anything.

So just how long does it take before we wake up? REALLY WAKE UP!

Has this been repeated often enough yet?

Originally Posted by blue

if we are going back to a warming period , whats the evidence it's co2 caused?

Asked and answered. Please do try to stay current.

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

The Left continues to get wierder & weirder:

Bill Nye Tells Climate Fanatics To Say “Climate Change” When It’s Cold Out, Use “Global Warming” When It’s Hot.


Real genius there, man!

I'd guess you wouldn't have a clue as to why this is necessary in Exceptional America.

Hint, it has something to do with communicating with right wing idiots.

They love their world in simple black and white and are therefore easily confused.

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

Fook me the 'climate change deniers' comment is getting tedious.

I don't believe anyone is denying it as it has always been changing. The causes are been challenged whether natural or man-made. Or even if we contribute enough to the NATURAL change.


Well brainwashed in to this new fashion-fad religion.

There seems to be big money involved.

Note Al Gore's net worth these days?

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

The causes are been challenged whether natural or man-made.

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

There seems to be big money involved.

Exxon, Mobil, Schlumberger, Shell, BP and those Koch brothers receiving 2 trillion dollars in subsidies besides the profit they make.

Fossil fuel subsidies costing global economy $2 trillion: IMF : Renew Economy

^
You seemed to have overlooked Al Gore, eh?

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

Fook me the 'climate change deniers' comment is getting tedious.

I don't believe anyone is denying it, as it has always been changing. The causes are been challenged whether natural or man-made. Or even if we contribute enough to the NATURAL change.


Well brainwashed into this new fashion-fad religion.

Associated with political identities and profits, regardless of one's stand.

Originally Posted by thaimeme

Originally Posted by Jesus Jones

Fook me the 'climate change deniers' comment is getting tedious.

I don't believe anyone is denying it, as it has always been changing. The causes are been challenged whether natural or man-made. Or even if we contribute enough to the NATURAL change.


Well brainwashed into this new fashion-fad religion.

Associated with political identities and profits, regardless of one's stand.

No,

It's plain old snake oil corruption in a modern bottle. At least OZ came to its senses and shit-canned those 'carbon credits', eh?

Originally Posted by Umbuku

Respected economists

No such thing. They are chasing the Trillion Dollar carbon tax derivative scam.

Originally Posted by Boon Mee

There seems to be big money involved.

Originally Posted by Umbuku

Exxon, Mobil, Schlumberger, Shell, BP and those Koch brothers receiving 2 trillion dollars in subsidies besides the profit they make.

Ya think?? That money goes a long way to push junk science spread by a bunch of money grubbing creationists.

Yep, that pesky 'ol science sure is settled!



The conceit that human production of carbon dioxide is capable of driving the earth’s climate is running smack into the sun. CO2 accounts for a mere 0.039% of the atmosphere, while the sun accounts for 99.86% of all of the mass in our entire solar system. And Ol’ Sol is not taking the insult lightly. Vencore Weather reports:

For the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flatlined in recent days (plot below courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center). Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots.

Blog: Bad news for warmists: Sun has entered 'weakest solar cycle in a century'

I wonder what the excuse will be when we get to summer...

I'll wager it's the hottest on record, want to bet against that Boon.?

Originally Posted by Neo

I wonder what the excuse will be when we get to summer...

I'll wager it's the hottest on record, want to bet against that Boon.?

So that won't have anything to do with the fact that the earth is in a cycle of being closer to the sun?

The deep freeze that has invaded the eastern half of Canada will persist through Friday. Here's your daily weather brief.

2. Ontario and Quebec
© The Weather Network

•Ontario: Extreme cold warnings are in place in southern and northern Ontario. Wind chill values could feel as cold as -45 into Friday morning in the north, while southern Ontario could see -40 wind chills. The next system expected to bring snow will move in Saturday, lasting through to Sunday.

•Quebec: Bitter cold will bring wind chills down to -40 in some places in the morning. Parts of eastern Quebec could see 25 cm of snow by Friday.


Some places have experienced record low temperatures. Others record snowfalls. One community in BC had 109 cms of snow in 24 hours. Nobody alive has ever seen anything like it before.

All that CO2 must be causing this too. We need to shut down industry, stop driving, and breath slower.

It gets worse. Scientists expect the weather to get much warmer in a few months. Some places may get quite hot, even in Ontario and Quebec....and positively blistering in Winnipeg which is currently colder than your freezer

OH fuk,.... here comes another five pages of graphs.....