Thread: Any doubts about Climate Change?

Global warming is unpaused and stuck on fast forward, new research shows

New research by Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research investigates how the warming of the Earth's climate has behaved over the past 15 years compared with the previous few decades. They conclude that while the rate of increase of average global surface temperatures has slowed since 1998, melting of Arctic ice, rising sea levels, and warming oceans have continued apace.

The widespread mainstream media focus on the slowed global surface warming has led some climate scientists like Trenberth and Fasullo to investigate its causes and how much various factors have contributed to the so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus.' However, the authors note that while the increase in global temperatures has slowed, the oceans have taken up heat at a faster rate since the turn of the century. Over 90 percent of the overall extra heat goes into the oceans, with only about 2 percent heating the Earth's atmosphere. The myth of the 'pause' is based on ignoring 98 percent of global warming and focusing exclusively on the one bit that's slowed.

Nevertheless, the causes of the slowed global surface temperature increase present an interesting scientific question. In examining changes in the activity of the sun and volcanoes, Trenberth and Fasullo estimated that they can account for no more than a 20 percent reduction in the Earth's energy imbalance, which is what causes global warming. Thus the cause of the slowed surface warming must primarily lie elsewhere, and ocean cycles are the most likely culprit.

Trenberth and Fasullo found that after the massive El Niño event in 1998, the Pacific Ocean appears to have shifted into a new mode of operation. Since that time, Trenberth's research has shown that the deep oceans have absorbed more heat than at any other time in the past 50 years.

As a recent paper published in the journal Nature showed, the Pacific Ocean in particular appears to be the key component of the climate's natural internal variability, and the main culprit behind the slowed global surface warming over the past 15 years. However, another important recent paper by Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way showed that the global surface temperature rise has not slowed as much as some previously thought; in fact, the surface warming since 1997 happened more than twice as fast as previous estimates.

Trenberth and Fasullo's new paper also casts doubt on the conclusions a few recent studies that estimated the Earth's climate is less sensitive to the increased greenhouse effect than previously thought. These studies have been based on measurements of recent climate change, including the warming of the oceans. Climate contrarians like Matt Ridley have of course emphasized their results, because these few papers seem to suggest the climate won't warm quite as much over the next century as climate scientists previously thought.

However, the type of approach taken by these studies suffers from some significant drawbacks. Mainly the size of the cooling effect due to human aerosol pollution remains highly uncertain, and while the oceans have been warming rapidly, just how rapidly is another unsettled question.

Previous estimates put the amount of heat accumulated by the world's oceans over the past decade equivalent to about 4 Hiroshima atomic bomb detonations per second, on average, but Trenberth's research puts the estimate equivalent to more than 6 detonations per second. Trenberth and Fasullo note that using their ocean heating estimate by itself would increase the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimate in the paper referenced by Ridley from 2°C to 2.5°C average global surface warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and using other more widespread accepted values would bring the estimate in line with the standard value of 3°C. They thus note,

"Using short records with uncertain forcings of the Earth system that is not in equilibrium does not (yet) produce reliable estimates of climate sensitivity."

In any case, the main point of the paper is that global warming is stuck on fast forward. Ice continues to melt, sea levels continue to rise, and the oceans continue to warm rapidly. While the warming of global surface temperatures has slowed somewhat, that appears to primarily be due to changing ocean cycles, particularly in the Pacific. However, these changes are mostly just causing the oceans to absorb more heat, leaving less for the atmosphere. As Trenberth and Fasullo conclude,

"[Global warming] is very much alive but being manifested in somewhat different ways than a simple increase in global mean surface temperature."

Appropriate or what?

Top Global Warming 'Scientists' Greeted By Record Cold In SF

Mebe it's the Al Gore effect?

Compare to 98 high temperature records, and 141 high minimum temperature records.

Quite an imbalance in weather records this week. Even the AGU fall meeting in San Francisco where the best and brightest global warming scientists were meeting was surrounded by record (such as 25F in San Jose Dec 9th) and near record setting low temperatures, though the irony was lost on many of them.

Over 2000 cold and snow records set in the USA this past week


Buffoon!

Originally Posted by Imminent

Here's a clip of a non-believer who was converted after watching a documentary called Chasing Ice. She was a devout follower of Fox New's Bill O'reilly but that's changed.





The movie site with some info on the movie. Guess it's only in some theaters right now.

Chasing Ice


Movie Trailer

Just finished watching Chasing Ice. If you would like to see visual evidence of climate change, you can watch the movie here: Watch Chasing Ice Online Free Putlocker - Putlocker - Watch Movies Online for Free

Free Streaming 2012 Full Movie on Putlocker.to 'National Geographic' photographer James Balog was as soon as a skeptic about climate modify. But by way of his Intense Ice Survey, he discovers undeniable evidence of our altering planet. In 'Chasing Ice,' we follow Balog across the Arctic as he deploys revolutionary time-lapse cameras created for 1 purpose: to capture a multi-year record with the world's altering glaciers. Balog's hauntingly gorgeous videos compress years into seconds and capture ancient mountains of ice in motion as they disappear at a breathtaking price. Traveling having a young group of adventurers by helicopter, canoe and dog sled across 3 continents, Balog dangers his career and his well-being in pursuit in the largest story in human history.

Saw the headlines about snowfall in the middle east.

Knew the numpties would be posting it up as evidence against global warming when it is in fact a smoking gun that proves it is real and happening in our lifetimes. Please consider how much energy it would take to bring that cold air down across Europe and into the middle east and ask yourselves where that increased energy is coming from.

Yet to see any evidence on this thread that anthropogenic warming is not the main contributor to global warming. Actually I have yet to see any evidence anywhere that discounts anthropogenic sourced warming.

Originally Posted by Neverna

And then there is the snow that's falling on the desert. Can that really be caused by a rise in global temperatures? I have my doubts!

Snow covers the scene in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, some 400 kms south-east of Cairo on Dec 13, 2013.

Cairo sees first snow in years as cold snap hits Egypt | Bangkok Post: breakingnews

Yes, global warming causes seemingly paradox weather sometimes. There is more energy in the system, weather systems become more intense. Lows are produced by heat, air is heating up, rising up, and replaced by cool air from the surroundings. The air humidity in lows is higher because warmer air can carry more vapor, and vaporized water itself contains a lot of heat.

There is an unusual strong low weather = excessive heat system over Turkey and the Eastern Med that sucks cold air from the North down, storm Alexa. It also provides the humidity to produce snow.



Rare December Snow Blankets Jerusalem (PHOTOS) - weather.com

Originally Posted by ENT

Increasing atmospheric, sea and ground temperatures causes hot air to rise (taking water with it) and cold air to sink (dumping that water) at a greater speed, thus accompanied by winds of higher velocity than normal.

So we see more extreme weather as a result.

Anthropogenic atmospheric warming exacerbates solar induced atmospheric warming, so increasing the likelihood of extreme weather conditions in apparently anomalous places and times.

Temperature inversion induced winds, increasing in velocity, cause increased water evaporation, creating a greater potential for extreme weather anomalies, such as unseasonal snow dumps where snow rarely falls, sudden rainstorms and floods, hurricanes/tornadoes/cyclones of greater force and extended surface area, increased land-ice melt at the poles, drought and extremely hot/dry summers.

Climatic conditions flipping from too hot to too cold,.... that's starting to become the norm, but only as a result of an ongoing temperature change.

On balance, indications are that global warming, not cooling is creating this situation, and it's based primarily on solar activity but amplified by human industry.

When ENT is right he is right and here he clearly is.

It is a longstanding prediction that global warming will cause more extreme weather events. And that covers extremes in all directions, including cold spells.

It needs to be said again and again: The denialists keep confusing weather with climate. The big question is, is it ignorance or is it on purpose, against better knowledge?