The Libyan Crisis

Thing is that the west really doesnt know what they are likely to end up with in Libya. With all the tribal factions the dream of a western friendly democracy could end up in a perpetual civil warfare state like Iraq.

Trying to unify some countries under a democratic system is like trying to mix oil and water (no pun intended). Sometimes a ruthless dictator is the only way to pull them all together. Thats what happened in Iraq when the League of Nations threw together a bunch of different people and called it Iraq. Same, same in northern Malaysia when the Poms gave part of Malaysia to Thailand.

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Originally Posted by Panda

Once the west referred Gidaffie to the International Criminal Court their fate in this civil uprising was sealed. It was only meant as a threat to stop the instability in an important oil producing nation for Europe. But it gave Gadaffie no way out other than absolute victory or death. Likewise, it locked the western nations into a win/ lose situation.

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That position may have already changed or be in the process of a re-think. Talks are underway to facilitate a planned exile for Gadaffi. If that can be agreed to, it gives him a clear way out and hostilities could cease almost immediately. Deals can be made at any stage if the will is there. Sooner or later there will have to be some sort of deal, so sooner would obviously be better.

If they can keep the Colonel off the cocaine long enough to make a rational decision it may work out. If not then it will be necessary to degrade his fighting forces to the point where he has no options left. The preferred outcome would be for Gadaffi to leave....but then it always has been. An interim government is already in waiting. The only problem NATO would be left with would be trying to stop the Gadaffi loyalists and "rebels" from engaging an ongoing conflict with countless revenge killings and that sort of thing.

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Originally Posted by koman

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Originally Posted by Panda

Once the west referred Gidaffie to the International Criminal Court their fate in this civil uprising was sealed. It was only meant as a threat to stop the instability in an important oil producing nation for Europe. But it gave Gadaffie no way out other than absolute victory or death. Likewise, it locked the western nations into a win/ lose situation.

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That position may have already changed or be in the process of a re-think. Talks are underway to facilitate a planned exile for Gadaffi. If that can be agreed to, it gives him a clear way out and hostilities could cease almost immediately. Deals can be made at any stage if the will is there. Sooner or later there will have to be some sort of deal, so sooner would obviously be better.

If they can keep the Colonel off the cocaine long enough to make a rational decision it may work out. If not then it will be necessary to degrade his fighting forces to the point where he has no options left. The preferred outcome would be for Gadaffi to leave....but then it always has been. An interim government is already in waiting. The only problem NATO would be left with would be trying to stop the Gadaffi loyalists and "rebels" from engaging an ongoing conflict with countless revenge killings and that sort of thing.

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Thats certainly an option for the west and I am sure it has been from day one.
But its an "under the table option" since the ICC route was publicly announced. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if the CIA didnt transport Gaddafi and his family to Venezuela and release a few $billion of his money for living expences.

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Originally Posted by Panda

Thing is that the west really doesnt know what they are likely to end up with in Libya. With all the tribal factions the dream of a western friendly democracy could end up in a perpetual civil warfare state like Iraq.

Trying to unify some countries under a democratic system is like trying to mix oil and water (no pun intended). Sometimes a ruthless dictator is the only way to pull them all together. Thats what happened in Iraq when the League of Nations threw together a bunch of different people and called it Iraq. Same, same in northern Malaysia when the Poms gave part of Malaysia to Thailand.

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There is some threat as you say, but it is a large part of the Libyan population that is calling for democracy, not us. Actually We (the west) have had a comfortable enough relationship with the Colonel for some years now (after we settled him down with a few previous air strikes)

The oil was flowing without problems and Gadaffi had reached the status of an aging coke addicted dictator who was playing along and not being so troublesome anymore. Then his own people started to move against him....probably inspired by the events in Tunisia and Egypt.

If Gadaffi has followed the lead of his fellow dictators and just bought himself a condo in the South of France or something, none of this would be happening. Instead, he promised "no mercy" to those who opposed him and sent tanks, fighters and other hardware to level Benghazi.....kind of a hard guy to negotiate with....
The only way to negotiate with Gadaffi is by pounding the crap out of him and his forces. Negotiations are under way......but still open to civil discussion.

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Originally Posted by koman

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Originally Posted by OhOh

So my questions to the any one who has reached this far are:

1. Has the UN resolution 1973 been modified by NATO to only attacked the Libyan government forces and none others.

How could NATO "modify" a UN Resolution? They could just ignore it I suppose, but they don't need to. All they have to do is follow the "by all means necessary" rules of engagement. That is a pretty broad mandate and they will do whatever is necessary to degrade and disable the forces of Gadaffi. If Gadaffi can no longer control Libya's population down the barrel of a gun, they may just get to a point where a real cease fire can be imposed. Then we shall see.

The NATO spokesman has already modified it. A real "ceasefire" has been offered, by the Libyan Government twice already, it was ignored by the (Coalition forces" against the UN resolution and illegally)



2. Will the NATO forces start shooting down their own planes attacking the bases (airports, carriers) where the planes are based, as they are bombing unarmed civilians and attacking civilian populated areas and continue to be a threat for the foreseeable future?

Don't be ridiculous. Of course they would not shoot down their own planes and why do you keep insisting that they are bombing unarmed civilians. What possible
reason would they have for doing that?
The resolution allows all UN member States to "by all means necessary" to stop the attacking of "civilians or civilian populated areas. Some UN member states are already stating the "coalition and NATO forces are exceeding the resolution.
Civilians (innocent or otherwise) will likely be killed in the air attacks, but to keep harping on about this as being some kind of deliberate action is just silly.
]It may be "silly" to you, tell it to the Libyans being murdered. The word "deliberate" is not in the resolution. The coalition and NATO if they kill one "civilian" opens them up to either attacking them selves, i.e. turkey v US forces or any UN member attacking them.

On the other hand there is no shortage of evidence that Gadaffi's forces have killed plenty of people (who were not in uniform so they must have been civilians)....you seem to be OK with that, or maybe you just can't bring yourself to believe it.
I am talking about "independently verified evidence", the same as the media, not unnamed sources, Libyan rebel commanders or Twitter posts


3. will they identify the "indelendent observers" upon which they are basing their whole murderous campaign in terms of who they are and where they are?

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Why would they do that?...and even if they did you would not believe them anyway. You would say that the observers were just stooges of the crusaders no matter who there were.
]Which negates the authority by which the murder is continuing


There are likely plenty of "observers" and small special forces units operating there for the purposes of gathering intelligence, target marking and stuff like that. There is also plenty of journalists from around the world reporting from both sides of the conflict. Even the ones who are traditionally quite anti-American and anti-western don't seem to be so in this particular action.
)"]The coalition and NATO if they do have "observers on the ground are acting not in compliance with the resolution

PS A question on "civilians" When a Gadaffi soldier takes his outer uniform off.... is he now a civilian?. He waits for the airstrike to end and puts his uniform back on.......at which point are you willing to stop calling him an "innocent civilian"?
The word "civilian" and "innocent" are not irrevocably connected you know.

"]Applies to both side in this civil war. The word "innocent" is not in the resolution

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My replies in light green
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Originally Posted by Panda

Thing is that the west really doesnt know what they are likely to end up with in Libya. With all the tribal factions the dream of a western friendly democracy could end up in a perpetual civil warfare state like Iraq.

Trying to unify some countries under a democratic system is like trying to mix oil and water (no pun intended). Sometimes a ruthless dictator is the only way to pull them all together. Thats what happened in Iraq when the League of Nations threw together a bunch of different people and called it Iraq. Same, same in northern Malaysia when the Poms gave part of Malaysia to Thailand.

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And Yugoslavia (Tito) - a rather good example.

Libyan fighters close in on Gaddafi

London conference to discuss future of Libya

Libya’s fighters close in on Gaddafi’s home town

Monday, 28 March 2011

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Libyan opposition fighter ride in their pick-up trucks as they progress westward

DUBAI (AlArabiya) Libya’s opposition fighters closed in on Muammar Gaddafi’s home town of Sirte on Monday under air cover of coalition forces, and the international community has began looking to what happens in a post-Gaddafi world.

Emboldened by the international coalition's air strikes against Gaddafi's forces, the fighters have quickly reversed earlier losses and regained control of all the main oil terminals in the east of the OPEC member country.

The opposition interim council based in the eastern city of Benghazi has signed a contract with the Arab gulf state of Qatar to export and market oil from the opposition held territories.

"We want to go to Sirte today. I don't know if it will happen," said 25-year-old opposition fighter Marjai Agouri as he waited with 100 others outside Bin Jawad with three multiple rocket launchers, six anti-aircraft guns and around a dozen pick-up trucks with machineguns mounted on them.

A spokesman for the fighters had said earlier that they had taken control of Sirte but other fighters pointed out later that the claim was not accurate and that they were still advancing cautiously toward the city.

They said their advance westward is stretching their supply lines.

"We have a serious problem with petrol," said a volunteer fighter waiting to fill his vehicle in the oil town of Ras Lanuf.

Continued coalition bombardments have weakened the ability of Gaddafi’s forces to fight in several fronts from the west to the east of the country.

Nine powerful explosions early Monday rocked Sirte as warplanes flew overhead and the coalition operation to enforce a no-fly zone in Libya entered its ninth day.

Future of Libya

As Gaddafi appears to be losing ground under the coalition’s military operation, the international community is preparing for a conference in London on Tuesday to discuss "a better future for the people of Libya."

The Arab League has been invited to London and the foreign ministers of Jordan and Qatar will attend alongside Western representatives including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Alain Juppe of France and Britain's William Hague.

The core of the meeting will be made up of countries which have taken the initiative to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973, aimed at protecting Libyan civilians from attack from Gaddafi's forces.

"But we hope there will also be friends of the coalition, and hopefully the National Transitional Council," said French foreign ministry spokesman Bernard Valero, referring to the main rebel grouping.

France is the only Western country to have officially recognized the rebels. Qatar followed suit on Monday.

The British government however was unable to confirm whether any representatives of the Libyan opposition would be present in London.

Chose a few images from the below gallery. Check for a lot more and updates..

TIME contract photographer Yuri Kozyrev is in eastern Libya, documenting the battle between Gaddafi loyalists and rebel forces. Though he’s been covering conflict for years, he said this is the most dangerous place he’s worked. “It’s like Russian roulette,” he said. “Nobody knows where the bomb will fall.” There were “helicopters shooting at us, rockets — it was heavy. There was no place to hide.”

Kozyrev spoke to TIME as Libyan rebels, emboldened by allied airstrikes, pushed westward toward Sert, birthplace of Muammar Gaddafi. “When we reached the western gate outside of Ajdabiyah, the rebels told us tamam, good all the way to Brega. We followed the rebel trucks to Ras Lanouf. As we pushed forward, more rebels stayed behind, camping on the highway.”

“We have been chasing the rebels all day,” he wrote Sunday, from an abandoned, looted hotel in Ras Lanouf. The highway behind them was littered with crippled tanks, trucks, cars and stores of unspent ammunition. “Gaddafi’s troops appear to have left in a hurry,” he wrote, “abandoning ammunition and disappearing without a fight.”


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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
Libyan rebels celebrate on top of a Gaddafi loyalist tank outside of Ajdabiyah, March 26, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
Libyan rebels near a destroyed Gaddafi tank near Ajdabiyah, March 26, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
Libyan rebels celebrate the retaking of Ajdabiyah near a smoldering tank, March 26, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
A Libyan rebel surveys the landscape near Brega, March 26, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
A rebel stands on the turret of a destroyed Libyan tank outside the city of Ajdabiyah, where hundreds of fighters have gathered, March 23, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
Rebel fighters scatter under fire outside the city of Ajdabiyah, March 22, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
The battlefield in Ras Lanuf, March 11, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
Rebels flee under fire from the Libyan army in Ras Lanuf, March 11, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
A damaged oil facility burns as a man prays in Ras Lanuf, March 11, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
Rebels fire rockets toward government positions in Ras Lanuf, March 9, 2011.

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Yuri Kozyrev—NOOR for TIME
An ambulance burns after a battle between rebels and the Libyan army in Brega, March 2, 2011.

Read more: Dispatch from Libya: Photographs by Yuri Kozyrev - LightBox

it will be interesting to see the reaction of the west once those rebels turns out to be Islamic fundamentalist

oh the irony, America to the help of an AQ uprising

that kind of shit would have never happened under GW Bush,

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Originally Posted by Butterfly

it will be interesting to see the reaction of the west once those rebels turns out to be Islamic fundamentalist

oh the irony, America to the help of an AQ uprising

that kind of shit would have never happened under GW Bush,

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That will be the question, come the occupation. Who are the rebels really?

well, if we believe our French political activist BHL who was behind Sarko decision to intervene unilaterally, they are "good people"

apparently that's his conclusion after he met with them secretly, for a whole 15min

BHL is jewish btw, and pro-Israeli, so I smell a rat when a famous writer and philosopher (called pretentious and snobby by Chomsky, and rightly so) is starting to go in secret political mission for the account of the French government

Go get Gadhaffi boy.

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Yessir, anything else you want me to do?

Certainly, pay more for our oil.

I can't believe that a President from any country would bow to those SA scums,

I bet GW Bush was down that robe and sucking cocks,

Trump was superb on CNN after Obama's speech.

Since when has the Arab League been ordering America around?

Apparently the purpose of the US/NATO/US intervention is to create regime change but not to remove Gadhaffi. How exactly do you change the regime without removing Gadhaffi?

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Originally Posted by koman

PS A question on "civilians" When a Gadaffi soldier takes his outer uniform off.... is he now a civilian?. He waits for the airstrike to end and puts his uniform back on.......at which point are you willing to stop calling him an "innocent civilian"? The word "civilian" and "innocent" are not irrevocably connected you know.

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And the two words whether connected or not can never be applied / used in Gadaffi's case!

In simple terms...this is again history repeating itself...keep a mad dog as a pet and it's only a matter of time before it's attempts to bite you, but the politicians never seem to remember or understand that and they've learnt from it.

If Gaddhaffi does not survive Obama will look like a hero. It has more to do with US domestic politics than humanitarian concerns for the Libyan people. This is Obama's 9/11 according to Bob Woodward. He will use it to his own cynical political advantage by putting his GOP critics on the defensive in the 2012 presidential election.

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Originally Posted by Rural Surin

Bush, That will be the question, come the occupation. Who are the rebels really?

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The ragheads are you idiot, even you should know that goat keeping, camel shagging muzzies are rebels not least because it's impossible for them to adapt to anything or live in peace with the rest of the world.

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Originally Posted by The Bold Rodney

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Originally Posted by Rural Surin

Bush, That will be the question, come the occupation. Who are the rebels really?

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The ragheads are you idiot, even you should know that goat keeping, camel shagging muzzies are rebels not least because it's impossible for them to adapt to anything or live in peace with the rest of the world.

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Live in peace? With the rest of the world? And where would that be.....oh, yes, less I forget - The rest of the world = The West. You might be reminded that it has been the West that has been the major instigator of problems worldwide for a better part of a century. Fancy and fallacy won't allow this truth to manifest amongst some.

The GOP must be foaming at the mouth. Iraq, ghan & the financial crash vs Libya and Health care reform. :mid:

Gaddafi troops reverse Libyan rebel charge | Reuters

Gaddafi troops reverse Libyan rebel charge

By Maria Golovnina and Michael Georgy
TRIPOLI | Tue Mar 29, 2011 9:42am EDT

(Reuters) - Muammar Gaddafi's better armed and organised troops reversed the westward charge of Libyan rebels as world powers met in London on Tuesday to plot the country's future without the "brother leader."

Ahead of the conference, President Barack Obama told Americans in a televised address that U.S. forces would not get bogged down trying to topple Gaddafi, but he stopped short of spelling out how the military campaign in Libya would end.

The United States is scaling back to a "supporting role" to let NATO take full command from U.S. forces on Wednesday, but air strikes by U.S., French and British planes remain key to smashing Gaddafi's armor and facilitating rebel advances.

It took five days of allied air strikes to pulverize Libyan government tanks around the town of Ajdabiyah before Gaddafi's troops fled and the rebels rushed in and began their 300-km (200-mile), two-day dash across the desert to within 80 km (50 miles) of the Gaddafi loyalist stronghold of Sirte.

But the rebel pick-up truck cavalcade was first ambushed, then outflanked by Gaddafi's troops. The advance stopped and government forces retook the small town of Nawfaliyah, 120 km (75 miles) east of Sirte.

"The Gaddafi guys hit us with Grads (rockets) and they came round our flanks," Ashraf Mohammed, a 28-year-old rebel wearing a bandolier of bullets, told a Reuters reporter at the front.

REBELS ON THE RUN

The sporadic thud of heavy weapons could be heard as dozens of civilian cars sped eastwards away from the fight.

One man stopped his car to berate the rebels.

"Get yourselves up there and stop posing for pictures," he shouted, but met little response.

Later, a hail of machinegun and rocket fire hit rebel positions. As the onslaught began, rebels leapt behind sand dunes to fire back but gave up after a few minutes, jumped into their pick-up trucks and sped off back down the road to the town of Bin Jawad. Shells landed near the road as they retreated.

Without air strikes it appears the rebels are not able to hold ground or make advances. The battle around Sirte, Gaddafi's birthplace, will show if the rebels have reached their limit.

Reports that some Nawfaliyah residents had fought alongside government troops are an ominous sign for world powers hoping for a swift end to Gaddafi's 41-year rule.

Obama said he had no choice but to act to avoid "violence on a horrific scale" against the Libyan people.

Gaddafi accused Western powers of massacres of Libyan civilians in alliance with rebels he said were al Qaeda members.

"Stop your brutal and unjust attack on our country ... Hundreds of Libyans are being killed because of this bombardment. Massacres are being mercilessly committed against the Libyan people," he said in a letter to world leaders carried by Libya's official news agency.

"We are a people united behind the leadership of the revolution, facing the terrorism of al Qaeda on the one hand and on the other hand terrorism by NATO, which now directly supports al Qaeda," he said.
The rebels deny any al Qaeda links and on Tuesday promised free and fair elections if Gaddafi is forced from power.

More than 40 governments and international organisations met in London on Tuesday to set up a steering group, including Arab states, to provide political guidance for the response to the war and coordinate long-term support to Libya.

Both Britain and Italy suggested Gaddafi might be allowed to go into exile to bring a quick end to the six-week civil war, but the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said there was no evidence the Libyan leader was prepared to leave.

NO REGIME CHANGE MISSION

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met the opposition Libyan National Council envoy Mahmoud Jebril before the London talks. A senior U.S. official said the two could discuss releasing $33 billion in frozen Libyan assets to the opposition.

Such meetings also help Washington better understand the rebel leadership, its military forces and the problems they face, the official said, though Obama pledged once again that U.S. ground forces would not be deployed to help them out.

"We will deny the regime arms, cut off its supply of cash, assist the opposition and work with other nations to hasten the day when Gaddafi leaves power," Obama said, but the United States would not use force to topple him, as it had in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

"To be blunt, we went down that road in Iraq," Obama said.

The United States though has not ruled out arming the rebels, ambassador Rice said.

"Over the long term, as the president said, there are other things that are at our disposal that perhaps will assist in speeding Gaddafi's exit," she told CBS television.

In western Libya, rebels and forces loyal to Gaddafi both claimed control over parts of Misrata and fighting appeared to persist in the fiercely contested city, Libya's third largest.

Gaddafi's forces launched another attempt to seize control of Misrata on Tuesday, said a rebel spokesman in the city which has been under siege for more than a month.

Government troops "tried an hour ago to get into the town through the eastern gate. The youths are trying to push them back. Fighting is still taking place now. Random bombardment is continuing," the spokesman, called Sami, told Reuters by telephone from the city. "Eight civilians were killed and several others wounded last night."

Another rebel spokesman, in Benghazi, said 124 civilians had been killed in the past nine days of fighting in Misrata, based on numbers obtained from hospitals in the city.

Witness: 'Carnage' in Misrata - CNN.com

Witness: 'Carnage' in Misrata

By the CNN Wire Staff
March 29, 2011 -- Updated 1409 GMT (2209 HKT)

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Witness: 'Utter carnage' in Misrata

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• A witness says coalition planes are circling overhead but not striking
• Gadhafi's forces are advancing in all directions, the witness says
• The Libyan government claims to control Misrata

(CNN) -- Libyan government tanks were shelling civilian areas in Misrata Tuesday and government forces were using heavy artillery as well, bringing "absolute and utter carnage" to the city, a witness told CNN.

Government forces were also evicting thousands of residents and looting their homes, according to the source with the Libyan opposition. Rebels were using schools and mosques to accommodate the evicted, he said.

"Things are getting so much worse" in the city, he said.

Coalition planes circled overhead but did not strike the tanks, he said. In an interview with CNN, he pleaded for coalition forces to take action and stop the government troops.
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Who really controls Misrata?

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's forces were "advancing in all directions of the city," he said.

Battles have been under way in Misrata for weeks.

The Libyan government took some journalists to Misrata Monday in an effort to suggest that Gadhafi's regime had control of the city, but did not allow journalists into the city center, which rebels have said they control.

Misrata is in western Libya, east of Tripoli.

The London Conference on Libya have announced that Sweden (not a member of NATO) has joined the coalition efforts in Lybia, sending 6 fighter planes to assist in enforcing the no fly zone

Todays report from AP


Libyan rebels retreating after Gadhafi onslaught - Yahoo! News

By RYAN LUCAS, Associated Press – 1 hr 45 mins ago

"Sirte is dominated by members of the Libyan leader's Gadhadhfa tribe and was used as a second capital by Gadhafi. Its loss would be a symbolic blow and open the way to the capital, Tripoli.
"This is their last defensive line. They will do everything to protect it," explained rebel fighter Twate Monsuri, 26. "It's not Gadhafi attacking us, he's just defending himself now.""

Time to stop these bombings.

A fresh start for Libya! What a good idea - start with telling Cameron and Clinton to get lost and take their weapons of regime destruction and toxic media/PR gangs with them. And don't forget to thank them for reducing their nation to rubble.

I hope the people of Britain and France will do their own regime change soon,

obviously those leaders are not fit to govern,