Nay...don't count your chickens yet, Sabang. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
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Nay...don't count your chickens yet, Sabang. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Ok mate. Fingers drumming. :rolleyes:
I think comparisons with Iraq were rather stetched though.
Depends on how just fine is defined.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
Clear the eastern tribes have no love for the Qaddafi regime. Not clear how much support the regime has in the western tribes but would have to have a significant amount or he would have been gone long ago.
Both sides are quickly coming to the realization that neither is going to win an all out victory. A stalemate is in the offing. The western powers cannot politically sustain their support indefinitely.
I still maintain a solution is being considered which gives everyone a convenient out.
Split the country in two. Let the easterners have their "democracy". Leave the Qaddafi regime but not Muammar in place in the west.
Once there is an East and West Libya countries can establish diplomatic relations as they see fit.
Muammar gone and democracy prevails. Mission accomplished and the powers can continue to influence both with their usual tactics.
A short sighted solution but dumb short sighted solutions are often the norm with the UN.
eggs a la face is really not the issue here, and I can't believe you are being such an apologist for what is another international abuse of power by the same usual suspects.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
The US public are getting "war-weary". They have declining standards of living to fund their governments war debts and they are getting tired of it is all.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
I remember the outpouring of war euphoria when USA attacked Iraq. It was " GO, GO USA!!" all over the Internet. Now its;-- when the hell can we get out of there?" Trouble is in the way these US foreign policy initiatives are sold to the US public by their government. Rather like a Rambo movie script, or perhaps a John Wayne script for the older folks. Good verses evil and it will be all over by the time you go to bed and wake up to another sunny day. The reality is, as each new generation comes to know, is that its not that simple. So, when these international foreign policy exploits drag on and on and on, and actually start to cost the TV viewers something at the petrol pump and the supermarket, they get a little bit disillusioned with the promise of a quick win at no cost. Well, somebody else's cost, but not theirs.
For reasons listed above, Obama is trying to keep the Libyan issue at arms length, handing control to NATO to avoid responsibility in case it all goes terribly wrong and drags on and on. Should there be a quick win/compromise to end it however, you can be sure he will take full credit. Its what politicians do.
That may be the easy out, but its not gonna work since the east has most of the oil and the west has most of the guns. Add into the equation that the East is divided into different tribal groups and has no experience at tying them together into a unified government and you end up with a recipe for ongoing instability by dividing the country up into competing factions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Far better for western interests to try to bind the country together under one unified banner to achieve a unified government and political stability. Even if it means installing Gadaffies son as ruler (all be it with some democratic concessions) and turning their guns on the rebels in the east.
I think speculating further at this point is just for the sake of it.
It doesn't look like a debacle, or a quagmire. Thats promising.
I'm sure nortons point of some sort of 'compromises'- be they face savers or more substantive- is valid. There is also an issue with the sons of Q- a couple are pretty hard line, indeed one is commanding some of Qadaffi's forces. The two doing the negotiating are the relative 'progressives'.
I ain't gonna do a dubya just yet, and say 'Misssion accomplished'. :rolleyes:
The fact Khadaffi's sons are hedging their bets to avoid the same fate as Saddam's sons is telling.
Much better as you say - for the people of Libya, unacceptable I would suggest for a large number of "westerners"Quote:
Originally Posted by Panda
Nation building is an expensive risky business. Free and open elections may not produce desired results either.Quote:
Originally Posted by OhOh
Who said anything about "free and open" elections....I don't believe that's what NATO has up it's sleeve, as they probably wouldn't care for the result.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Good point.
FRANCE 24 - Regime
Latest update: 04/04/2011
Regime ‘seeking solution’ amid diplomatic drive
Following a spate of high-level defections and with a military stand-off that is tearing the country apart, the Libyan regime is reaching out for a diplomatic solution to its current crisis.
An envoy from the Libyan government arrived in Athens on Monday at the beginning of a Europe-wide diplomatic mission to find a way of ending the fighting in the North African country.
Libyan Deputy Foreign Minister Abdelati Obeidi is due to visit Malta and then Turkey following his meeting with Greek officials.
“It seems that the Libyan authorities are seeking a solution,” Greek Foreign Minister Dimitris Droutsas told reporters, although it remains unclear what exactly the Libyan government is proposing.
Greek officials have already warned that any solution – for example, if Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi was to hand power to one of his sons – could lead to Libya being split in two.
France, Britain and the United States had ruled this option out before they began launching air strikes against the Gaddafi regime on March 19. The rebel Transitional National Council on Monday also rejected any idea of a transition to democracy under members of the Gaddafi family after the New York Times reported that at least two of Gaddafi’s sons had proposed this option in a deal that would include removing their father from power.
Quoting a diplomat and a Libyan official, the article said the transition would likely be spearheaded by Seif al-Islam, who is believed to have been groomed as Gaddafi’s successor before the popular uprising.
Further cracks
These diplomatic overtures follow a political catastrophe for the Gaddafi regime last week when a trusted Gaddafi adviser, Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa, flew to London and announced his defection, followed by former foreign minister Ali Treiki on Sunday.
In a further sign that the Libyan leader’s support may be waning, former premier and government spokesman Abdul Ati al-Obeidi told Britain’s Channel 4 News on Friday that his country was “trying to speak to the British, the French and the Americans to stop the killing of people”.
“We are trying to find a mutual solution,” he added.
A British diplomat confirmed to the Guardian newspaper that Mohammed Ismail, an aide to Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam, had been in London visiting family. Diplomats there took “the opportunity to communicate to him some very firm messages regarding the Gaddafi regime”.
“If the people on the Gaddafi side want to have a conversation, we are happy to talk,” the unnamed diplomat said. “But we will deliver a clear and consistent message: Gaddafi has to go, and there has to be a better future for Libya.”
Cause for caution
Nevertheless, Western diplomats are likely to be cautious of Libyan government overtures.
Since the uprising in Libya began on February 15, messages and promises from Gaddafi and his regime have been confused, contradictory and sometimes clearly false.
Gaddafi initially accused the terrorist network al Qaeda of fomenting the uprising, and – in the same speech – blamed the same Western nations to which the Libyan government is now reaching out.
And just before the coalition attacks began in mid-March, Gaddafi announced a ceasefire in the country, which he promptly broke as his forces, made up of loyalist government troops and hired mercenaries, launched concerted attacks against rebel positions.
The latest offer of a ceasefire from the rebel side – conditional on Gaddafi leaving the country, withdrawing his troops from all cities and allowing freedom of expression – was rejected out of hand as “mad” by the Libyan government on Friday.
Rebel weakness boosts Gaddafi
Despite the coalition attacks, Gaddafi remains in a position of some strength on the ground.
The rebels have so far proved to be a disorganised force with no central control or heavy weapons. They have failed to hold onto advances despite the coalition air strikes that have been hammering Gaddafi’s forces for more than two weeks.
But that may be about to change. A semblance of order has started to emerge among rebel forces as enthusiastic but undisciplined fighters are pulled off of the front line in favour of seasoned former army soldiers.
Ahmed al-Shiri, a former high-ranking army officer, told the Associated Press news agency that the military council in the rebel stronghold of Benghazi had been working on improvements in the past weeks. He blamed a lack of coordination and organisation for the rebels’ failure to take the Gaddafi stronghold of Sirte.
“We are getting orders from the military council now,” he said. “The [rebel] army is in control. These undisciplined fighters aren’t leading the way anymore.”
Italy recognises rebel council
Italy on Monday became the second European country after France to recognise Libya’s rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) as the north African country’s only legitimate voice. Qatar has also recognised the rebel’s authority.
Following a meeting with an NTC envoy in Rome, Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said, “We have decided to recognise the council as the only political, legitimate interlocutor to represent Libya.”
Frattini did not rule out arming rebel fighters, which would effectively sidestep the clause in the UN Security Council resolution forbidding foreign intervention on the ground.
The foreign minister also reiterated his country’s calls that leader Muammar Gaddafi be replaced as a precondition for any solution to the country’s conflict. Libya is a former Italian colony.
this is going to end in tears for the allies,
this conflict is following the same pattern as early Iraq,
AlArabiya_Eng AlArabiya English
Kuwait says it will officially recognize the Libyan oppositional council within days
bencnn benwedeman
Brega clear and sunny today. Airplanes overhead, but opposition officers say no NATO air strikes in over 24 hours. #Libya
Opposition army officer says they control New Brega, closing in on Brega proper, says 50 carloads of Qaddafi loyalists still in town. #Libya
LONDON (AP) -- Britain urges Koussa to answer Lockerbie questions http://apne.ws/hyCrt5
Maybe Ben Wedeman is Khadaffi's long lost Jewish cousin.
This is the core reason for all the hoopla. Let freedom ring throughout the land!Quote:
Originally Posted by Rural Surin
All sounds so noble until the Hamas syndrome is repeated. Oops! Not what we had up our sleeves. Democracy is great as long as the "right" folks win.
Yes, naturally.Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Jesus Norton, since when have you became a liberal commie ? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Norton
Ain't that right, Thailand :rolleyes:?Quote:
Originally Posted by Butterfly
The point we all seem to miss, speaking en masse, is that liberal democracy is itself a moderating influence on society.
We should walk the walk more, & believe our own rhetoric. Turning our back on our own principles has caused, or fuelled, a lot of radicalism elsewhere.
Liberal Democracy {anywhere}. I'd first be suspicious as how this is universally defined. One might get twenty different conclusions and practices.Quote:
Originally Posted by sabang
By principles more than practise, really. But look historically at the most 'successful' societies in the world, and those principles are incorporated, albeit imperfectly. I find it hard to argue with that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rural Surin
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...d_dest=Twitter
Libya says Gaddafi stays, wounded relate siege hell
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Libyan girl hit by shrapnel
9:35am EDT
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By Maria Golovnina and Tarek Amara
TRIPOLI/SFAX, Tunisia | Mon Apr 4, 2011 8:46pm EDT
(Reuters) - Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi are staging a "massacre" in the besieged city of Misrata, evacuees said on Monday, as Libya said it was ready to discuss political reform, led by Gaddafi.
Libyan TV showed footage of Gaddafi saluting supporters outside his fortified compound in Tripoli. But some residents of the capital, angered by fuel shortages and long queues for basic goods caused by a popular revolt and Western sanctions and air strikes, began openly predicting his imminent downfall.
Government spokesman Mussa Ibrahim said Libya was ready for a "political solution" with world powers.
"We could have any political system, any changes: constitution, election, anything. But the leader has to lead this forward," he told reporters when asked about the content of negotiations with other countries.
With Libya in chaos, an official in neighboring Algeria told Reuters al Qaeda was exploiting the conflict to acquire weapons, including surface-to-air missiles.
The U.S. State Department said it had raised concerns with the Libyan rebels about the Islamist group obtaining arms in the east of the country, where they are battling Gaddafi's forces.
Evacuees from Misrata, the rebels' last major stronghold in western Libya, described the city as "hell". They said Gaddafi's troops were using tanks and snipers against residents, littering the streets with corpses and filling hospitals with the wounded.
"You have to visit Misrata to see the massacre by Gaddafi," said Omar Boubaker, a 40-year-old engineer with a bullet wound to the leg, brought to the Tunisian port of Sfax by a French aid group. "Corpses are in the street. Hospitals are overflowing."
Misrata rose up with other towns against Gaddafi last month but most others have been retaken by government forces.
"I could live or die, but I am thinking of my family and friends who are stranded in the hell of Misrata," said tearful evacuee Abdullah Lacheeb, who had serious injuries to his pelvis and stomach and a bullet wound in his leg.
"Imagine, they use tanks against civilians. He (Gaddafi) is prepared to kill everyone there."
GADDAFI GREETING
State TV showed what it said was live footage of Gaddafi briefly waving to supporters through the roof of a Jeep outside his compound while bodyguards tried to prevent them mobbing him.
But in the lanes of Tripoli's medieval market, some openly forecast his fall as rebels battle his forces in eastern Libya.
"People from the east will come here. Maybe in two weeks," said one entrepreneur who asked that his name not be used for fear of reprisals. "But now, people are afraid."
Stalemate on the frontline in the east, defections from Gaddafi's circle and the plight of civilians caught in fighting, or facing shortages, have prompted a flurry of diplomacy.
Turkey said it was seeking to broker a ceasefire as an envoy from Gaddafi's government traveled to Ankara from Athens.
"Turkey will continue to do its best to end the suffering and to contribute to the process of making a road map that includes the political demands of Libyan people," Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.
Turkey also expected envoys from the rebel National Council soon, he added. A Turkish official said both sides "conveyed that they have some opinions about a possible ceasefire".
ITALY SAYS GADDAFI MUST GO
Spokesman Ibrahim said Libya was ready to listen to outside reform proposals and "try our best to meet you in the middle".
But he added: "No one can come to the Libyan nation and say to them: 'You have to lose your leader, or your system, or your regime' ... Who are you to say that?"
Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini dismissed Libya's stance. "A solution for the future of Libya has a pre-condition: that Gaddafi's regime leaves and is out and that Gaddafi himself and his family leave the country," he said.
In Washington, the U.S. Treasury said it had lifted sanctions against former Libyan foreign minister Moussa Koussa in the hope that other senior officials would defect.
Koussa fled to Britain last week.
Scottish police, who want to question him over the 1988 Lockerbie airliner bombing, for which Libya accepted responsibility and paid compensation to relatives of the 270 dead, were expected to meet him within days.
U.N.-mandated air strikes to protect civilians, led by the United States, France and Britain, have so far failed to halt attacks in Misrata by the Libyan army.
At least five people died when Gaddafi's forces shelled a residential area of the city late on Monday, a doctor said.
"The reception in the hospital is full. Five people were confirmed killed in the last two hours and five more are in a critical condition," the doctor, who gave his name as Ramadan, told Reuters by phone from the city.
Libyan officials deny attacking civilians in Misrata, saying they are fighting armed gangs linked to al Qaeda. Accounts from Misrata cannot be independently verified as Libyan authorities are not allowing journalists to report freely from there.
A Turkish ship that sailed into Misrata to rescue 250 wounded was protected by Turkish warplanes and warships and had to leave in a hurry after thousands pressed forward on the dock, pleading to be evacuated. Another ship operated by Medecins Sans Frontieres docked in Sfax with 71 wounded from Misrata.
Abdel Rahman, a witness from Zintan, another rebel hold-out 160 km southwest of Tripoli, said the situation there was grim.
"Gaddafi's militias are still besieging the town. Petrol is running short and most cars are parked. Few people drive their cars. We are also worried that if this goes on for much longer, we will have food shortages too...
"Coalition aircraft fly over but they don't hit the tanks, military vehicles and soldiers surrounding Zintan."
AL QAEDA CONVOY
In Algiers, a senior security official said that Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the Islamist group's regional wing, was getting hold of weapons in eastern Libya.
The Algerian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a convoy of eight Toyota pick-up trucks had left eastern Libya and headed via Chad and Niger to northern Mali, where in the past few days it had delivered a cargo of weapons.
"We know that this is not the first convoy and that it is still ongoing," the official said. "Several military barracks have been pillaged in this region (eastern Libya) with their arsenals and weapons stores, and the elements of AQIM who were present could not have failed to profit from this opportunity."
In Washington, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the United States had raised its concerns with the rebels.
Gaddafi says the uprising is fueled by Islamist radicals and Western nations who want to control Libya's oil. The rebels, whose stronghold is the eastern city of Benghazi, say they only want the removal of Gaddafi and his circle.
After chasing each other up and down the coast road linking the oil ports of eastern Libya with Gaddafi's tribal heartland further west, the two sides are stuck around Brega, a sparsely populated settlement spread over more than 25 km (15 miles).
Gaddafi planned civilian killings, Hague court says | Reuters
By Angus MacSwan
BENGHAZI, Libya | Tue Apr 5, 2011 10:57am EDT
(Reuters) - The International Criminal Court has evidence Muammar Gaddafi's government planned to put down protests by killing civilians before the uprising in Libya broke out, the ICC's prosecutor said on Tuesday.
The peaceful protests that erupted on February 15 descended into civil war as Gaddafi's forces first fired on demonstrators, then violently put down the uprisings that followed in the west, leaving the east and the third city of Misrata in rebel hands.
NATO-led air power is now holding the balance in Libya, preventing Gaddafi's forces overrunning the seven-week old revolt, but unable for now to hand the rebels outright victory.
The United Nations Security Council, which on March 17 sanctioned air strikes on Libyan government forces to prevent them killing civilians, in February referred Libya to the ICC, the world's first permanent war crimes court.
Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo is to report back to the U.N. on May 4, and is then expected to request arrest warrants.
"We have evidence that after the Tunisia and Egypt conflicts, people in the (Gaddafi) regime were planning how to control demonstrations in Libya," Moreno-Ocampo told Reuters in an interview.
"The shootings of civilians was a pre-determined plan," he said, adding the plan started to be developed in January.
DEFECTOR SOUGHT
The court prosecutor wants to speak to former Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa who defected to Britain last week, saying he did so because of attacks on civilians by Gaddafi's forces.
Koussa's defection would be taken into consideration in the investigation into Gaddafi, his sons and aides, Moreno-Ocampo said, hinting others inside the government might follow suit.
"The fact that Moussa Koussa defected is interesting because that is one option you have. If you have no power to stop the crimes then you can defect to show you are not responsible," he said.
Fighting on the frontline in the eastern oil terminal town of Brega has become bogged down with Gaddafi's advantage in tanks and artillery canceled out by NATO-led air strikes which effectively back the rebels.
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have similarly failed to make any progress with the government side offering concessions, but insisting Gaddafi stay in power and the rebels adamant that Libya's leader for the past 41 years leave.
After a series of rapid rebel advances followed by headlong retreats, the insurgents have held their ground for six days now in Brega, putting their best trained forces in to battle for the town and keeping the disorganized volunteers away.
A familiar pattern has set in, with lightly armed volunteers pulling back under rocket fire and better-trained rebel soldiers, most of them from army units that defected from Gaddafi or came out of retirement, tending to hold their ground.
FRANCE 24 - NATO knocks out nearly a third of Gaddafi's firepower
Latest update: 05/04/2011
NATO knocks out nearly a third of Gaddafi's firepower
By News Wires (text)
REUTERS - Western powers have destroyed nearly a third of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's military power since launching a military campaign against him last month, NATO officials said on Tuesday.
The area around the Libyan city of Misrata -- the only major town in western Libya where a revolt against Gaddafi that began seven weeks ago has not been crushed -- was the number one priority of NATO air strikes for now, they said.
NATO took command of operations in Libya from a coalition led by the United States, Britain and France on March 31 and is enforcing a no-fly zone ordered by the United Nations and launching air strikes on Gaddafi's forces to shield civilians.
"The assessment is that we have taken out 30 percent of the military capacity of Gaddafi," Brigadier General Mark van Uhm, a senior NATO staff officer, told a news briefing in Brussels.
Over the last day, air strikes around Misrata hit Gaddafi's tanks, air defence systems and other armoured vehicles, he said.
Near Brega in the east, where intense fighting continued for a sixth day on Tuesday, NATO aircraft struck a rocket launcher, as well as ammunition stores in other areas, he said.
NATO-led air power is holding a balance in Libya, preventing Gaddafi's forces overrunning the seven-week old revolt, but unable for now to hand the rebels outright victory.
NATO countered criticism by the insurgents that Western air power has become less effective since the alliance took control, saying the military presence in Libyan skies had been maintained.
However, Van Uhm said, Gaddafi's use of civilians as human shields and hiding his armour in populated areas was curbing NATO's ability to hit targets.
He confirmed that NATO air strikes had killed several civilians in the town of Brega in recent days. In an "unfortunate accident", NATO forces had acted in self-defence after rebels fired in the air in celebration, he said.