Thread: Why Obama will Win

Here's an article on Virginia. In areas called "exurbs" there seem to be more Obama voters living their now. The stereotype of the so-called college educated "middle class" voter who will vote GOP or Dem, depending on the candidate.

As posters are aware, rising gas prices, falling home values, and seeing foreclosed homes are leading to what William referred as as losing confidence.

These exurbs now have more of the "Patio Man" voters, as the working-class GOP leaning whites have dimished.

A brief excerpt, but the entire article is worth scanning. The Suburbs and Exurbs are leaning toward Obama in VA: Also, there is another character in addition to "Joe Sixpack," and "Joe the Plumber." "Patio Man."

Lang explained the Democratic ascendancy by invoking the archetype of "Patio Man," coined by the columnist David Brooks in 2002.

Patio Man, as Lang sees it, is typically a middle manager who works in a suburban office park and has a college education and maybe a master's degree. He is a centrist, upset not only about his home's plummeting value but also with the Bush administration's lapses in Iraq and in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Patio Man is also fairly comfortable with the notion of an African American president, because exurbs in places such as Northern Virginia are increasingly diverse. Plus, Lang said, exurban women are not enamored of McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, which polls have shown has not gone over well with many educated suburbanites.

Entire: Dems see opportunity in outer 'burbs' troubles - Washington Post - MSNBC.com

[quote=Milkman;804622]

Originally Posted by Milkman

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

I heard Mr Powell's "speech". Almost changed my mind because I respect him so much. And then Hitler and Chamberlain popped into my mind.

How does Chamberlain's policy of appeasement over 60 years ago apply to any politician or nation-state today?

Not thinking of appeasement at all, MM. I'm thinking in terms of being blinkered by the rhetoric (oh, such a powerful speaker!), the sway of the populace (they love BO's plans -- free healthcare, tax the rich, programmes all paid for by the upper crust 5% viz save the German economy and who cares about Czech anyway?), and in some ways, public polls (He's gonna win so better back him; he's got all of Germany on his side, he must be right).
Nice prepared speech by Powell. Sounded positively political.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

And then Hitler and Chamberlain popped into my mind.

And these gentlemen have offended you in some way?

^ Just a little bit.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

Wait and see, Ant.

Another staggering example of Jet's grasp on issues and it shows just how well she can discuss a point . . .

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

^ Just a little bit.

Oh? I would have thought you have many things in common with one of them . . . the one starting with H.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Jet, a serious question, what are socialist ways when in seen in context of the US?

Can you provide any discussion on this or is it another 'wait and see' answer?

things will change under Obama, I am looking forward to seeing a US Government with empathy and common decency.

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

things will change under Obama, I am looking forward to seeing a US Government with empathy and common decency.

I feel the same way, CMN. Your sentence really sums it up for me, when it comes to empathy and decency.

More good news:

Poll: Obama opens biggest lead over McCain

Dem leads rival by 10 points among registered voters in NBC/WSJ survey

By Mark Murray
Deputy political director
NBC News
Oct. 21, 2008

Entire: Poll: Obama opens biggest lead over McCain - Decision '08 - MSNBC.com

today's up to date polls from all the main pollsters.

national polls at the bottom, some state polls up top.

rather disturbing stuff:

Dead bear covered with Obama signs found at school


Dead bear covered with Obama signs found at school - Yahoo! News

It's a good thing for John McCain that he's not running for president anywhere other than the United States.
Gallup surveys in 70 countries showed overwhelming international support for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over his Republican rival, by a whopping 4-to-1 margin.

Global survey shows world citizens prefer Barack Obama to John McCain by 4-to-1 margin

Thats one helluva margin, and to be fair more of an indictment on the Bush admin than McCain.

Some more good news!



All the Metrics Point to an Obama Win


Back in 2007, when practically every pundit saw Rudy Giuliani as the inevitable Republican nominee, political guru Charlie Cook said he (Cook) was more likely to win the Tour de France then the Republicans were to nominate a thrice-married, gay-friendly New Yorker. Cook didn't win the Tour de France and Giuliani didn't win the nomination, so Cook gets a certain amount of credit. Now he says there are six factors pointing to an Obama win in two weeks:

1. No candidate this far back two weeks out has ever won.
2. Early voting is going strong and even if something big happens, those votes are already cast.
3. The Democrats have a 10% advantage in party registration; in 2004 it was even.
4. Obama is outspending McCain 4 to 1 in many states.
5. There is no evidence for the so-called Bradley effect in the past 15 years.
6. Obama is safe in all the Kerry states and ahead in half a dozen states Bush won.

Link to the rest of todays story:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Originally Posted by sabang

international support for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over his Republican rival, by a whopping 4-to-1 margin.

Sabang; CMN; KW; and Panama Hat-to-Jet.

Flash; S Landreth; November Rain; and bkkmadness-to-keda.

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

today's up to date polls from all the main pollsters.

national polls at the bottom, some state polls up top.

If you look at many of the states where McCain is ahead, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina these are the most bigoted uneducated ignorant areas of the US a.k.a. Bush Country. This is where Jerry Springer looks for his guests.

Originally Posted by sabang

Global survey shows world citizens prefer Barack Obama to John McCain by 4-to-1 margin

Ready for Change

Originally Posted by jim1176

If you look at many of the states where McCain is ahead, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina these are the most bigoted uneducated ignorant areas of the US a.k.a. Bush Country

to be honest, i'm not sure why the pollsters are wasting their time on the double digit banker states.

Originally Posted by Milkman

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

things will change under Obama, I am looking forward to seeing a US Government with empathy and common decency.

I feel the same way, CMN. Your sentence really sums it up for me, when it comes to empathy and decency.

Jimmy Carter tried that, didn't he?

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

Originally Posted by Milkman

Originally Posted by ChiangMai noon

things will change under Obama, I am looking forward to seeing a US Government with empathy and common decency.

I feel the same way, CMN. Your sentence really sums it up for me, when it comes to empathy and decency.

Jimmy Carter tried that, didn't he?

I never thought he did, Jet.

What do you mean?

Can you provide some examples of him doing this, or not doing this?

Originally Posted by Milkman

Can you provide some examples of him doing this, or not doing this?

Hahaha, this is Jet you are asking? her reply will be to Google it or something similarly vapid. It would be refreshing, however, to see what her answer would be.

Originally Posted by Bugs

McCain still has my vote, and like I said there is still a chance for him - but slim.

Then I have a question, Bugs. having said the things so far about McCain and the Reps. . . why would you still vore for him? IS it a matter of party loyalty or tradition?

MM, Carter tried it with the Palestinians, didn't he? What did he do with the gas crisis or even the embassy attack? Sympathetic words and no action.

Why attempt an answer with questions? How about answering the questions with relevance.

I'd be interested . . . no tit for tat on this one.

Originally Posted by Jet Gorgon

MM, Carter tried it with the Palestinians, didn't he?

I don't know what you're talking about. What would Carter have had to do with the Palestinians?

The Camp David Accords were between Egypt and Israel.

What did he do with the gas crisis

Jet, the gas crisis was in 1973. Carter was not President, then.

or even the embassy attack?

What embassy? Where?

Do you mean the US embassy in Tehran? It was not attacked. It was over-run. With live hostages you cannot take military action. It would mean a sure death for them.

The Iranian hostage crises was "blowback." The CIA claims this. Go back to 1953 with the CIA coup in Iran.


Lots of generalities but no details nor any specifics.

Originally Posted by panama hat

Originally Posted by Bugs

McCain still has my vote, and like I said there is still a chance for him - but slim.

Then I have a question, Bugs. having said the things so far about McCain and the Reps. . . why would you still vore for him? IS it a matter of party loyalty or tradition?

Not sure what you mean by "things". The negatives about McCain and his campaign so far is that they have been too negative in the approach. But as a fundamental base I like far more of what McCain proposes than what Obama proposes.

In any case as with most elections there is no one candidate that I agree with 100%, but I agree far more the McCain platform, than I do for the Obama platform.

I am very much against nationalism of health care, I do not want to raise taxes on anyone (at various times during this campaign Obama has talked about raising payroll taxes, raising income taxes, raising capitol gains taxes, raising business taxes, and even the inheritance tax - too much talk of raising taxes for me - regardless of if I am the one paying more tax or not), I don't think the Obama energy program is as good as McCains (no nuclear and much more opposed to expanded drilling in the Obama plan - though with the ever declining oil prices I just hope who ever gets elected has the balls to stick with what they have said in the campaign and really do something to make alternatives a larger part of the US energy picture), I don't care for either of them when it comes to immigration (but like McCain more on this issue), on the international scene I think Obama would be better off-thebat for the US, but worse long term (just because of the change issue) - on the vast majority of international issues I am much more in-line with McCain - especially as this relates to Iraq (we started that mess, and I think we have an obligation to finish it regardless of how much it cost us Americans), about the only issue I can think of that I like what Obama says more than McCain is education and I don't think education is a national issue - to me education is a state issue and the feds should stay out of ALL issues related to education (so I like what Obama says about issues related to education but think they should be done on a local not a national level).

And I trust McCain more on the following items as well: Judicial selection (McCain favors judges that have shown they fall into the judicial restraint category rather than the judicial activism category - I am a strong supporter of the balance of power and I think judicial restraint is a key to the balance), protecting my second amendment right to personally keep and bare arms, as well as taking a more aggressive approach to ethical issues in politics.

On top of all that I like much of the plan McCain has been talking about recently in regard to having the feds buy up individual mortgages (even though this is against my fundamental belief in small government). I actually favor the government buying up individual mortgages much more than any of the other federal bail-out plans that focus on business rather then the home-owner.

That is why I will vote for McCain next month (well actually I be casting my ballot this month).

Originally Posted by Milkman

Lots of generalities but no details nor any specifics.

Seriously, you were expecting details or specifics?

Originally Posted by Bugs

Judicial selection (McCain favors judges that have shown they fall into the judicial restraint category rather than the judicial activism category - I am a strong supporter of the balance of power and I think judicial restraint is a key to the balance

Agreed, but how is Obama in the camp of judicial activism?

Originally Posted by Bugs

protecting my second amendment right to personally keep and bare arms

We'll disagree on that one as I find it one of the basic wrongs of US society . . . more damage than a 'right' is worth.

Originally Posted by Bugs

a more aggressive approach to ethical issues in politics.

Isn't this what Obama is advocating as well?

Originally Posted by Bugs

feds buy up individual mortgages

To be honest I can't really see this working. In effect the state will own private real estate, doesn't make sense.


I also think Obama will win, but it will be one term only and then the other side will get in again . . . there is just no way that one term will suffice to make the ship sail again, the painful measures that are needed will not be taken as it is tantamount to self-destruction in a democracy.

Originally Posted by Bugs

I agree far more the McCain platform, than I do for the Obama platform.

And that answers the question. McCain was by far the best of the lot of contenders and the fears were quite real that he could gather many right-wing democrats . . . he messed it all up with Palin, however, and his ugly tactics now certainly won't endear him to the middle-of-the-road voter either.

McCain/Lieberman - that would have been a shoe-in.

Originally Posted by panama hat

McCain/Lieberman - that would have been a shoe-in.

McCain wanted Lieberman. He flew a trial balloon and the Christian right was adamantly opposed. They were very loud about it.

Therefore....Palin.

It goes to show not only the influence of the Xtian Right, but their negative influence on the GOP.