Thread: 2026 Midterm Election

Rand Paul: Midterms will be ‘disastrous’ for Republicans

Republican Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) warned Tuesday that the midterms could be “disastrous” for his party if the war in Iran continues.

“Already, we are behind the eight ball as far as the electoral process,” Paul told host Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria.”

“I think if you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action — people don’t want to call it war — if there’s still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you’re going to see a disastrous election,” the libertarian senator added.

As U.S and Israeli strikes against Iran continue, with the latter halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, consumers stateside are facing higher prices at the pump. The per-barrel price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil surged past $100 Monday but has since dropped to less than $85 as of early Tuesday afternoon.

The national average price of a gallon of regular gas also surpassed $3.50 on Tuesday, up more than $0.40 from a week ago and up more than $0.60 from a month ago, according to AAA.

Even before the U.S. began striking Iran, Americans were concerned about the state of the economy and the cost of living under President Trump. A January survey conducted by the Pew Research Center found that more than 7 in 10 respondents rate economic conditions in the country as fair or poor.

That same poll found that 71 percent of respondents were “very concerned” about the cost of health care, with 66 percent “very concerned” about the price of food and consumer goods and 62 percent “very concerned” about the cost of housing.

Democrats capitalized on those concerns last year, parlaying them into a series of off-year election wins. That has boosted the opposition party’s hopes for the midterms, with control of the House and Senate in the final two years of the president’s term up for grabs.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 189 House seats as solidly Democratic, eight seats as likely Democratic and 14 seats are Democratic leans, for a total of 211. It rates 186 seats as solidly Republican, 16 seats as likely Republican and four as GOP leans, for a total of 206.

Eighteen seats, meanwhile, are in Cook’s “toss up” category, with 14 of those occupied by a Republican and four held by a Democrat. A party needs 218 seats for a majority in the lower chamber. As for the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 edge, 34 seats are up for grabs. Four seats, two each held by Republicans and Democrats, are in Cook’s “toss up” category, but Democrats are optimistic about state Rep. James Talarico’s chances in Texas against the winner of a May runoff between incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

Ahead of midterms, Republicans confront cooling support from young men over Trump policies

• College students who voted for Trump express mixed feelings about his second term
• Key frustrations include rising living costs, student debt, and immigration enforcement tactics
• Analysts warn Republicans may struggle to retain young male voters in midterms

In a college library lined with volumes on America's greatest presidents, six young men who voted for Donald Trump gathered to size up his second term. Their verdicts ranged from guarded approval to disappointment, reflecting growing tension in a demographic that helped propel Trump to victory in 2024.

While the students form a very small sample ​size, their mixed reviews - including criticism of what several called overly harsh immigration enforcement and frustration over rising prices - mirror a broader shift in national polling that shows the Republican president is losing ground with young men.

Public opinion polling suggests that this [at]softening of support, part of a broader unhappiness among Americans over Trump's policies, threatens Republicans' hopes of retaining their slim majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives.

Analysts who track the youth vote told Reuters many young men report feeling little tangible improvement in their economic prospects since Trump returned to office in January 2025.

Sitting with five classmates in the political library at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire, 20-year-old sophomore Tyler Witzgall captured a sentiment common among his peers: The president, for all his accomplishments, has fallen short on issues shaping their daily lives, like high prices.

"I'm still going to graduate and be in an enormous amount of debt. I won’t be able to buy a home for a ​while," Witzgall said, grading Trump a C or C-plus, describing his disappointment in the president's efforts to tackle domestic economic issues.

None of the students said they regretted their vote, viewing the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, then Vice President Kamala Harris, as a continuation of a ​presidency they associated with unchecked immigration and spiraling costs.

Yet even solid Trump backers like Ian Pomfret, a 20-year-old sophomore, joined others in the student panel criticizing what he describes as overly aggressive tactics used by Immigration and ⁠Customs Enforcement agents implementing Trump's crackdown.

"The ICE thing is a huge problem," Pomfret said, pointing to the two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents in Minneapolis. "I feel like there is a better way of going about it than raiding and killing and instant deportation."

Pomfret still broadly supports Trump, grading him a ​B-plus.

Last month, some 33% of men aged 18-29 approved of Trump's performance in the White House, down from 43% in February 2025, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Trump garnered the support of 46% of young males in the 2024 presidential election, up 7 points from 2020, according to exit polling analyzed by ​Pew Research.

A party strategist who works on House races pointed to a CBS News survey in February showing that 43% of young voters view Republican positions as "mainstream", and said the party could still secure midterm wins if it captures at least 40% of the youth vote.

Turnout among young voters is historically low in midterm elections, with only a quarter casting a ballot in 2022, half the overall rate.

Still, young voters can tip close races, as in 2018 when a wave of mass shootings spurred youth turnout and helped flip more than a dozen congressional seats to the Democrats, according to John Della Volpe, a pollster who specializes in the Gen Z vote.

"All evidence in the last 15 ​or 16 months is that this cohort cannot be counted on at this stage to be reliable Republican voters," Della Volpe said. "Mostly because they haven't felt tangible improvements in their day-to-day lives."

Inside the GOP meeting to save the House

President Trump's top advisers are urging House Republicans to turn the 2026 midterms into a choice election — and hammer Democrats on taxes, crime and border security.

Why it matters: Midterm elections are almost always referendums on the president and the party in power.

• But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Trump are looking to buck history and retain the House by focusing on the Democrats' national brand, with 52% of voters viewing the Democratic Party unfavorably.

Driving the news: At the House GOP retreat in sunny Doral, Florida, (high 84°) White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told lawmakers to stop emphasizing "mass deportations," Axios scooped earlier Tuesday.

• Mass deportations were central to the GOP's 2024 campaign message, so Blair's advice captured attention. Instead, he told lawmakers, focus on deporting violent offenders.
• The emerging strategy: remind voters of Democrats' Biden-era positions on crime, cashless bail and open borders, according to people familiar with the matter.

Zoom in: Blair was on a closed-door panel with Chris LaCivita, Trump's 2024 co-campaign manager, and Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside super PAC associated with Johnson.

• The panelists, led by National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson, reminded lawmakers of the GOP's unprecedented cash advantage.
• In a cycle with a small map, the party with stronger organization and clearer lines of control has the edge, the panelists said.
• Blair also told GOP lawmakers to remember how Trump won in 2024. He challenged conventional wisdom: Don't feed into Democratic talking points, he said.

Zoom out: History is not on the GOP's side this November.

• Republicans lost 41 House seats in Trump's first midterm. President Obama's Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, the first midterm after he was elected.
• Lawmakers in both parties are fleeing Congress at a record rate, with 34 Republicans and 21 Democrats planning to leave the House at the end of this Congress.
• Trump is also a drag on Republicans as his favorability rating remains well underwater, with his approval rating in the low 40s.

Historically, the party with more departures tends to lose seats, and often the majority.

• But with a smaller map — around two dozen seats in toss-up districts — Democrats would need to outperform Vice President Harris by 3% to win the majority.

GOP senators warn Trump that shaky economy could spell election disaster

Republican senators are getting louder in warning President Trump that economic headwinds caused by the administration’s tariff regime combined with the sharp reduction in global oil supplies could set the GOP up for a rude political awakening in November.

Soft jobs numbers and higher-than-desired inflation have been a persistent problem during Trump’s second term, but the double whammy of a full-scale military conflict with Iran and fresh uncertainty about Trump’s ability to reach trade deals after the Supreme Court struck down a key element of his tariff authority has created new economic risks, GOP lawmakers warn.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) warned this week that Republicans will face a “disastrous election” in November if oil prices don’t come down and if voters’ perception of the economy doesn’t improve.

Paul says that Republicans will be in a state of panic in the fall if oil prices are as high as they are now because of the supply crunch in the Middle East.

“The closer we get to the election, if oil prices are $100 a barrel in September or October, I think you’ll see mass fear and hysteria break out on the Republican side,” he predicted.

The prospect of a political disaster in November is beginning to dawn on senior members of the Trump administration and some of Paul’s GOP colleagues in Congress.

“There’s a difficult realization that inflation doesn’t go away. You had four years of Biden when prices went up about 20 percent. They don’t reverse themselves, we’re adding them to them at a lower rate. Unless your salary went up 25 percent in the last five years, you’re worse off than you were five years ago,” Paul said.

“I think the president is starting to sense that,” he added. “The less talk we have of unconditional surrender and ‘We’re going to pick the next ayatollah,’ the more realism that’s injected into this, the better.”

“For the Republican Party and just for politics, the sooner the war ends, the better for us,” he said.

A Republican senator who requested anonymity to comment on internal discussions said GOP colleagues have been worried for months about voters’ negative views of the economy and fear the war could become a serious drag on it.

The GOP lawmaker said colleagues were “taken off-guard by the expansive nature of what’s happening with the conflict, the expansive nature of the war aims, and [we] are trying to figure out where this goes.”

The Republican senator pointed to weaker Republican voter turnout compared with Democratic turnout in last week’s Texas primary as the latest sign of political trouble for the GOP.

“Democrats are very, very motivated, turning out in big numbers. Republican voters are a lot less motivated and there’s a lot of work to be done,” the lawmaker said.

A new NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted in late February and early March by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies found that 62 percent of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living — up 7 percentage points from the 55 percent who expressed disapproval a year ago.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who faces a competitive reelection race, says voters in Maine aren’t happy about rising gas prices.

“They are not happy, obviously. Many rural Mainers have to go long distances to get to work. We’re a very rural state,” she said.

Collins expressed some hope that economic fallout from the war might push Iran’s regime to step down its counterattacks on U.S. allies in the region.

“If this keeps up, it’s going to hurt the Iranians themselves because their own oil is [not] going to be able to get through the Strait of Hormuz,” she said.

The military conflict with Iran has frozen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, where ships would be vulnerable to retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes. About 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow strait.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil soared to $116 a barrel on Monday before dropping down to $90 a barrel on Wednesday. West Texas crude closed at $67 a barrel before the U.S. and Israel launched a massive operation of missile and bombing strikes against Iran on Feb. 28.

Republicans from rural states say that high fuel costs combined with depressed commodity prices caused by trade tensions with China and other major foreign markets are pinching farmers in their home states.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) says he’s getting calls from farmers who are losing money because of rising fuel prices.

“They’re losing a dollar on corn, two dollars on soybeans and that this is just one more [piece of] bad news,” Grassley.

He suggested that tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and allowing year-round sales of E15, a blend of gasoline and corn-derived ethanol, could help ease oil prices.

The Energy Department announced Wednesday afternoon that it would release 172 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserve.

Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) says he heard from the Kansas Farm Bureau this week and warned “the circumstance in ‘Ag Country’ is the most severe, serious financial circumstance that I can recall.”

“It’s the challenge of high input costs, including the cost of fuel and natural gas as a component of fertilizer, and commodity prices that are too low to cover the costs,” he said.

He said farmers are “anxious for the president to reach conclusions on trade agreements that lower the tariff barriers and nontariff barriers that agriculture has faced from many countries.”

“They’re very anxious for that to happen quickly,” Moran said.

On the global trade front, the Supreme Court’s recent decision that Trump lacked the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement global tariffs has raised new uncertainty about whether Trump has leverage to finish negotiating more favorable trade deals with major foreign partners.

Moran said it’s hard to predict how the battles for control of the Senate and House will play out in the fall, but he warned that the strength of the economy will be a major factor in the election.

“It’s hard to predict where it might fall but … the economy generally and the cost of business and any difficulties in agriculture are not good signs for Republicans,” he said.

2026 Generic Congressional Vote

47.4 - Democrats

42.5 - Republicans

US now a rogue state threatening democratic Greenland and Denmark.

Harry Enten Delivers Grim Polling Reality Check For Trump: ‘You Can’t Win When…’

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered grim news for Republicans with the latest polling on the cost-of-living crisis, which is now being further exacerbated by Donald Trump’s Iran war.

On Thursday’s “News Central,” Enten said the numbers are “the most troublesome sign that I have seen for the President of the United States and the Republican Party so far.”

Trump’s net approval rating on the issue stands at -41 points, down from +3 in October 2024.

“Woo! Down underwater we go!” said Enten. “His net approval at a record low, 41 points below water! You can’t win when you’re at 41 points below water on the cost of living.”

Enten then delivered more bad news:

“You think this 41 points below water is bad? Take a look at independents. It’s even worse. I mean, 60 points underwater when it comes to Trump and the cost of living among independents. Again, a record low.”

“That is a 71-point switcheroo” in “the wrong direction” for Trump, he said.

It’s “just a political nightmare waiting to happen for the Republican party come the midterm election,” Enten added.

The analyst suggested the dire numbers — on what was the top issue for voters in the 2024 presidential election — could spell disaster for the GOP in both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms.

Senate Control In Midterms Is A Coinflip, Bettors Predict—Democrats Are Closing The Gap

Bettors on key online platforms believe Democrats have a virtually equal chance of re-taking control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections, as odds soar in the party’s favor in recent weeks, as polls show President Donald Trump’s high disapproval ratings persist, as well as opposition to the Iran war.

Bettors on Kalshi believe Democrats now have a 49.9% chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate. This is a major shift from just a month ago, when bookmakers on the platform believed the GOP had a 60% chance of retaining control of the chamber. The Republican Party’s odds were even higher at the end of last year at 68%, but they have steadily declined since the start of 2026. Odds for the House race are firmly in favor of Democrats, with bettors giving them an 84% to winning back control. Odds for the House have favored Democrats since last year, but they had briefly narrowed to around 58-42 in November.

What Are Bettors On Polymarket Predicting For The Midterms?

On Polymarket, bookmakers predict Republicans have a 51% chance of retaining control of the Senate; however, the breakdown of seat-specific races favors Democrats gaining control of 51 seats to Republicans’ 49. Bettors on the crypto-based platform believe Alaska and Ohio’s Senate Seats will be the most competitive races, with the Democrats being slightly favored in both. In the House, Polymarket bookmakers are betting that Democrats will win a sizable majority of 241 seats.

Supreme Court justices hear challenge to counting late-arriving mail ballots

What to know about Supreme Court oral arguments in late-arriving mail ballots case

The Supreme Court justices peppered lawyers with probing questions Monday during oral arguments over whether states should be able to decide whether to count mail ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterwards.

The case before the court arises from state and national Republicans’ challenge of a Mississippi law that allows ballots postmarked by Election Day up to be counted as long as they arrive five business days later. The justices must rule on whether Election Day is the deadline for voters to cast their ballots, or whether federal law instead requires ballots to be received by elections officials by that date.

Much of the argument turns on whether federal statutes defining Election Day as “the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November” means that’s the deadline for election officials to to receive voters’ ballots, rather than allowing ballots that were mailed by that date.

Some of the conservative justices asked questions meant to probe the limits and implications of what states could permit.

Democrats flip Florida state House district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago

Democrats delivered a blow to Florida Republicans and flipped a state House seat in President Trump’s backyard, according to Decision Desk HQ.

Democrat Emily Gregory, a health fitness small business owner, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples, a financial adviser, in a race for the open Florida District 87 state House seat, which includes part of Palm Beach County and the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, Gregory garnered just more than 51 percent of the vote, while Maples had just less than 49 percent backing with more than 95 percent of the vote in.

Gregory and Maples faced off in the contest after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tapped Republican Mike Caruso in August to become the county clerk and comptroller. Trump voted by mail in Tuesday’s election.

“Mar-a-Lago’s state House district just flipped from red to blue, which should have Republicans worried about their chances this November,” she said. “A Trump +11 district in his own backyard shouldn’t be in play for Democrats, but tonight proves Republicans are vulnerable everywhere.”

Trump casts mail ballot in Florida even as he calls the method '''cheating'''

51 percent in new poll say they hope Democrats take control of House

Over half of American voters say they want Democrats to take control of the House, according to a new poll.

In the Quinnipiac University poll, 51 percent of respondents said they wished for Democrats to take back the House in a hypothetical election, while 40 percent wanted it to remain in Republican hands. Nine percent were unsure or gave no response about who they wanted to lead the House.

The poll found 57 percent of independents wishing for the Democrats to take control of the House, with 26 percent of the same group wanting the Republicans to control the House. Seventeen percent of independents were unsure or gave no response about who they wanted to hold power in the lower chamber.

Republicans are facing rocky political territory as they head into this year’s midterms, with the current conflict in Iran shown to be unpopular in recent polling, recent Democratic election wins and President Trump’s low approval ratings.

In the Quinnipiac poll, 38 percent approved of Trump’s job performance and 56 percent did not approve. Six percent were unsure about his job performance or did not respond.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) advised Republicans that their redistricting attempts may backfire for them after a Democrat won a special election in Florida.

“Democrats FLIPPED a state House seat in Palm Beach that Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Mar-a-Lago will now be represented by Emily Gregory, a strong Democratic voice,” Jeffries wrote Tuesday on the social platform X.

“We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” he added.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has pushed for a special spring legislative session centered on redistricting in Florida, set to convene next month.

Utah GOP redistricting push fails to make ballot

A GOP-led redistricting push in Utah failed to make the ballot after opposition groups campaigned for voters to remove their signatures from a petition required to ensure the measure was included in the general election later this year.

The Beehive State requires support for legislation with 141,000 signatures from 8 percent of registered voters in at least 26 of the 29 Senate districts for ballot approval.

Utah Republicans originally exceeded the requirement in February, but 9,000 signatories removed their names from the petition, ultimately knocking the repeal of Proposition 4 off the November ballot.

In 2018, Utahns voted in favor of Proposition 4 to establish a seven-member independent commission that creates and recommends maps to state lawmakers.

Lawmakers in the state sought to repeal the measure following a growing wave of redistricting efforts nationwide.

President Trump, Vice President Vance, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox (R) all advocated in favor of the redistricting effort in addition to the Republican-backed Utahns For Representative Government.

An outside group also spent $4.3 million for people from out of state to help collect signatures in favor of repealing Proposition 4, according to The Salt Lake Tribune.

Those who signed the petition have until April 23 to remove their name. Better Boundaries and other groups are still campaigning for voters to remove their names from the petition.

“With reports suggesting the Prop 4 repeal may not qualify for the ballot, we will continue to help Utah voters who felt they were misled about what they signed to remove their signatures,” Elizabeth Rasmussen, executive director at Better Boundaries, told the Deseret News.

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Platner holds commanding lead over Mills in Maine Senate race: Access to this page has been denied Poll

Progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner holds a commanding double-digit lead over Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) in the Democratic primary to take on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), according to a new poll.

An Emerson College Polling survey released Thursday showed Platner leading Mills by about 27 points in the Senate Democratic contest, with Platner receiving 55 percent support while the Maine governor received 28 percent. A separate 17 percent said “someone else” or were undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted Platner enjoys an edge among men and women voters over the Maine governor.

“Graham Platner has a significant lead over Governor Mills, which is outside the poll’s margin of error,” Kimball said in a release. “Male voters support Platner by a 41-point margin, 63% to 22%, while women support Platner by an 18-point margin, 50% to 32%.”

The poll also found that Platner held a slightly larger lead over Collins when Emerson College Polling gamed out two hypothetical match-ups between the Democratic candidates and the GOP senator.

In a hypothetical match-up between Platner and Collins, the progressive oyster farmer had a 7-point lead.

Platner received 48 percent while Collins received 41 percent, and a separate 12 percent said “someone else” or were unsure.

Florida wins after Trump takeover leave Democrats feeling brighter about Sunshine State

Florida has been widely seen as a red state, particularly since the emergence of President Trump in 2016 as a presidential winner.

Trump won Florida in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and over that time period saw the Sunshine State become a center of the MAGA universe.

But a series of recent Democratic wins — from a high-profile flip this week in the state district home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate to a recent upset in the Miami mayoral race — are forcing both parties to confront the reality that the political ground may not be as settled as it seemed.

“It doesn’t mean everything, but it means something,” said Steve Schale, the Democratic strategist who ran former President Obama’s operation in the state. “I still think Florida is very hard at the statewide level, but we have a more motivated electorate than we had in 2024.

“I do think more places are going to be in play,” Schale added. “More voters are open to us making our argument to them.”

The reason Floridians are more open to hearing from Democrats, argue Schale and other Democratic strategists in the state, is unhappiness with Trump’s handling of the economy and his administration’s policies more broadly.

Democrats had been feeling bullish about the shift since Eileen Higgins won the Miami mayoral race, becoming the first Democrat to win that office in decades.

Tuesday’s victory by Emily Gregory in the Mar-a-Lago district, and Brian Nathan’s upset in a state Senate district, they argue, provides the latest evidence.

Fernand Amandi, the Democratic strategist who serves as an adviser to David Jolly, the former GOP congressman running for governor as a Democrat, and Eliott Rodriguez, the longtime South Florida news anchor running to flip a House seat that has largely been in Republican hands, said the wins are significant.

The takeaways, Amandi said, are “now indisputable.”

“The reason is that we are now seeing in Florida what is happening everywhere else across the country, which is a double-digit Democratic over-performance in every single election since Donald Trump has retaken the presidency,” Amandi said.

“It doesn’t mean that Florida is now a purple state or a blue state, but it does mean for the first time, I think since 2018, you can start to now say that Florida is back in play,” he said.

He pointed to Rodriguez as a good example of a candidate who can win in a state like Florida. He’s “demographically perfect for the district: he’s trusted, respected, a truth-teller and has support and fans on all sides of the spectrum,” Amandi said.

Republicans are outwardly confident they can keep the state more of a solid red, yet there’s also anxiety among GOP operatives — even those who worked for Trump — about the president’s approval numbers.

“There’s a lot of nervousness among Republicans with the fact that he’s so underwater with only seven months to go for the midterms because they’re on the ballot,” a former Trump campaign adviser said. “He’s not.”

“There’s no real chance of losing the state, let’s say at the governor level,” the former adviser said. “Florida is such a red state right now, has gone that way in the last 10 years that it’s hard to see Florida … even turning purple again.”

Still, the Republican acknowledged the recent elections were “a sign of unpopularity.”

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who is the front-runner to succeed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), also called on Republicans to “redouble our efforts” after Tuesday night’s wins by Democrats.

In an interview with The Hill, Jolly said Democrats shouldn’t get the wrong message from Tuesday night’s victory.

“We should be cautious and understand — I think what we’re seeing are people fleeing Republican leadership,” Jolly said. “Whether or not they’re embracing Democrats is to be determined.”

“I think they’re giving us a very fragile license in a moment of dramatic change where people are desperate for new leadership, and they’re willing to trust us as Democrats,” he said.

Democrats’ voter affiliation has taken a hit in recent years, while Republican affiliation in the state has grown, with the GOP blowing past Democrats by almost 1,500,000 as of last year.

“The registration difference is the challenge,” said John Morgan, the Democratic megadonor and prominent injury lawyer who is based in Florida. “But clearly the chaos and cruelty is having its impact not only here but across the country.”

The state’s Democratic Party has tried to seize on even the smallest triumphs, putting forth a string of efforts since the 2024 election cycle — including the Pendulum Initiative, a year-round organizing program that party officials have said contributed to significant gains in red congressional districts. There are also efforts underway to lure more rural voters to their side, party officials have said.

But strategists say they also need help from the national Democratic Party apparatus.

“What Democrats in the state of Florida now need is rescue, resources and infrastructure help from the national party and from national donors to say, ‘It’s OK, it’s safe to swim in Florida’s political waters again. You’re not just going to be throwing your money away here,” Amandi said.

Schale said voters in the state are a more motivated electorate than they were even a couple of years ago.

Now, he said “there’s an opportunity to have a conversation with voters that we didn’t have a couple of years ago.

“But we also have to realize they’re not voting for us because they want us to be the opposite of Republicans,” Schale added. “They want people who are going to go to Tallahassee and Washington and solve problems.”

Photos: 'No Kings' protests across the country

In large cities and small towns across the country, millions took to the streets today in protest against the policies of President Trump and his administration.

Organized by "No Kings," a network of progressive groups opposed to the administration's agenda, the protests are the third wave of demonstrations since the President took office for a second term. Last year, millions attended protests in June and again in October.

^ Apparently it's a mass Trump Syndrome Trauma Therapy Session - according to Fox News and the Republicans...

Nate Silver on recent polling: Trump has ‘profound problems’

Pollster Nate Silver said President Trump has “profound problems” as the president’s job approval rating took a significant hit in recent surveys.

Silver posted a string of posts on the social platform X about the downward trend, after Trump’s average approval rating fell below 40 percent last week.

Two separate surveys released last week by The Associated Press-NORC Research Center and Quinnipiac University found a 38 percent approval rating for the president, while a University of Massachusetts Amherst survey reported Trump’s lowest approval rating yet, 33 percent.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday found 41 percent of respondents supported how the president has handled his job. A Harvard-sponsored poll from last week pinned his approval rating at 43 percent.

This dip comes amid the Trump administration’s ongoing military operations against Iran. The U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against the country on Feb. 28 after the two sides failed to reach an agreement on a new nuclear deal.

Iranian counterstrikes in the Gulf region have effectively halted the passage of oil-carrying ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil trading corridor in the global economy. The price of international benchmark Brent crude oil has skyrocketed, hitting a trade value of around $118 per barrel on Tuesday morning.

Prior to the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, Brent crude oil was trading around $70 per barrel.

The price of gas has also increased. In the U.S., the national average price of standard gas hit $4 per gallon on Tuesday morning, up more than a dollar from a month ago, according to AAA.

While Silver acknowledged rising fuel prices resulting from the conflict are a “big factor” in the president’s approval ratings, he wrote that there are also “signs of erosion among his base.”

“Only 22% of Americans have a *strongly* favorable view of Trump,” the pollster wrote on X. “2028 aspirants are starting to pull away from him. One wonders about the effect of his age, too.”

The economy is expected to play a big role in the upcoming midterm elections in November, with House Democrats focusing on a message of affordability in their effort to win back control of the chamber.

Trump largely ran on promises to address cost-of-living concerns during his 2024 presidential campaign. However, the economic hits resulting from the military campaign against Iran and inflation in the U.S. have been a particular weak point for the president in recent surveys.

Platner leads Mills, Collins in Maine’s U.S. Senate race: Emerson College Polling

Democrat Graham Platner leads his primary opponent, Maine Governor Janet Mills (D), and incumbent U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R), in a new Emerson College Polling survey of Maine’s U.S. Senate race.

The poll of likely Democratic Party voters found Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, with 13% undecided and 4% supporting another candidate in the June 9 Democratic primary.

In a hypothetical matchup, Platner leads Collins 48% to 41%, with 12% undecided. Mills also leads Collins 46% to 43% with 11% undecided.

Collins, a five-term incumbent, is largely unpopular in her home state with a 57% unfavorable rating and a 38% favorable rating in the poll. Mills, who is term-limited as governor, has a 54% unfavorable rating and a 40% approval.

Platner, an oyster farmer who has faced controversy early in his campaign, has a 42% favorable rating with 20% of voters unsure or never hearing of him, and 38% holding an unfavorable opinion of him.

Republicans trail Democrats by double digits on generic congressional ballot: Survey

A new poll shows Republicans trailing Democrats by double digits on a generic congressional ballot.

The survey results released Monday by the New York Times/Siena poll show that 50 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.

Comparatively, 39 percent said they would back the Republican nominee and 11 percent are unsure.

Thirty percent of the survey participants identify as Democrats, 29 percent identify as Republican while 35 percent said they are independent.

Three percent consider themselves members of another party, and 5 percent said they don’t know or refused to answer.

As a percentage of the total electorate, a plurality 38 percent, said they voted for President Trump in the 2024 election, 37 percent said they cast a ballot for former Vice President Kamala Harris and 18 percent said they did not vote.

Ninety percent of survey takers said they plan to participate in midterm elections versus 7 percent who said they are unlikely to vote in the general election. Two percent said they don’t know or refused to answer the question.

Trump has taken a strong approach to backing the candidates of his choosing in various states, with hopes of keeping the slim GOP majority in both chambers.

The president has also made efforts to oust incumbents who are not closely aligned with his legislative agenda.

Meanwhile, Democrats launched a seven–figure voter registration effort at the start of the year to increase the party’s visibility.

As of February, Republicans’ campaign arm had more cash on hand than its Democratic counterpart, with $78.2 million to Democrats $69.9 million.

The midterm election is Nov. 3.

The Times-Siena survey was conducted among 1,507 registered voters nationwide from May 11-15 via phone interviews. The margin of error for the poll is about plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

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Paxton defeats Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate runoff

Paxton (R) vs. Talarico (D)

Talarico (D) up by 1.5

Court blocks Alabama Republicans’ congressional map

A three-judge panel on Tuesday blocked Alabama Republicans’ congressional map that would’ve given the party a potential pickup opportunity in the midterms.

The judges ruled the Supreme Court’s recent blockbuster decision narrowing the Voting Rights Act does not impact their finding that the map intentionally discriminates against Black voters in violation of the Constitution.

It means Alabama cannot use its design this year unless Republican leaders appeal directly to the Supreme Court, which they have vowed to do.

“Ultimately, we cannot see our way clear to requiring Alabamians to cast their votes in the 2026 elections under a districting plan tainted by intentional race-based discrimination,” the ruling reads.

“And under the unusual circumstances of this case, we conclude that a limited order requiring the Secretary to continue using this Court’s race-blind map will not disrupt Alabama’s elections,” it continued.

Under federal law, constitutional redistricting cases proceed before a special three-judge panel.

Tuesday’s panel included U.S. Circuit Judge Stanley Marcus, an appointee of former President Clinton, along with U.S. District Judges Anna Manasco and Terry Moorer, who were both appointed by President Trump.

Their ruling forces Alabama to instead use a court-ordered map that added a second-majority Black district. It paved the way for the election of Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures.

Republicans have looked to redraw Alabama’s congressional lines amid the mid-decade redistricting war that began in Texas.

The litigation over Alabama’s congressional map dates back years, however.

In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled Alabama Republicans’ original design that included only one majority-Black district likely violated the Voting Rights Act.

The current litigation concerns Republicans’ subsequent map. It still didn’t outright create a second majority-Black district and was similarly blocked.

But now, GOP leaders in Alabama believe the Supreme Court’s recent blockbuster decision on the Voting Rights Act vindicates its map.

The Supreme Court previously agreed the three-judge panel should take another look.

But with them now ruling that the map must remain blocked, the case is poised to boomerang back to the justices.

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) quickly vowed to file a Supreme Court appeal, calling Republicans’ map a “blandly unobjectionable” design.

“This is a very fluid situation, and I will do my best to keep the people of Alabama apprised of our efforts. Know this—in my mind, it is not a matter of whether we win this case, only when,” Marshall said in a statement.

Clyburn on South Carolina record-breaking early voter turnout: People were ‘very angry’

Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) on Tuesday said the Palmetto State’s record-breaking early voter turnout could be attributed to residents’ anger over Republicans’ redistricting measure.

“People were upset that this was taking place. And people tend to vote when they get angry. And people were very angry,” Clyburn told reporters hours after casting his ballot in Orangeburg, S.C.


“I watched some of the interviews that were taking place at polling places today. And I don’t know if I’ve ever seen voters as animated as I saw them today,” he added.

A total of 44,600 people voted in person by 3:00 p.m. Tuesday, nearly doubling the previous record for a single day of early voting in a primary election, according to the South Carolina Daily Gazette.

Voters turned up in droves as the South Carolina state Senate considered a plan to advance a new congressional map that would put Clyburn’s majority-minority district in danger.

Ultimately, lawmakers struck down the measure in a 26-18 vote, rejecting President Trump’s push for the state to redraw its congressional maps.

State senators originally declined to extend their legislative session to consider redistricting; however, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) called a special session to urge elected officials to approve new districts.

“I wasn’t surprised at the vote. I was surprised that the governor called a special session because he said he was not going to. And he said he was going to leave it up to the Legislature,” Clyburn said.

“And the Legislature made his feelings known several weeks ago. And he immediately called a special session. So I don’t know what all this is about, but I do know this. That the congressional lines were looked at by the Supreme Court two years ago. And the Supreme Court said they were constitutional,” he said, in reference to the state’s current congressional map.

Despite the show of rejection from state lawmakers, McMaster told reporters he’s “confident that one day South Carolina’s congressional delegation will be completely Republican.”

“I am disappointed that day has not yet come,” he added.

Clyburn said the push to make redistricting a partisan issue is “short-sighted” and urged future lawmakers to abide by the Constitution when evaluating changes to congressional maps.

“I didn’t hear his comment today, but I think that South Carolina should be what South Carolinians would like for it to be. And I think the vote today reflected what South Carolinians would like to see,” the longtime lawmaker told reporters.

“And that is a constitutional process that plays itself out according to the laws rather than any one man. And I’m disappointed to hear that,” he added in response to McMaster’s remarks.

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Trump is f'ked, so he is gonna do something very very bad at the midterms...

time will tell