Thread: 2026 Midterm Election

Political analyst predicts big Democratic gains in upcoming midterms

Voters will return to the polls this November for a midterm cycle that is already stirring up big money and partisan redistricting. One political analyst believes the Democratic gains may be more substantial than many may expect.

A couple dozen seats currently represented by Republicans could flip blue, according to political scientist Alan Abramowitz, who writes for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at UVA’s Center for Politics. While that pattern is typical in a midterm cycle, Abramowitz said other factors are working to the Democrats’ advantage.

“The projections are right now that Democrats are very likely to gain more than enough seats to take a majority in the House,” Abramowitz said.

Abramowitz foresees a so-called blue wave sweeping midterm elections.

“A gain of 15, 20 or 25 seats is certainly possible,” he said.

Midterms rarely favor the president’s party, Abramowitz said, and President Trump’s low approval rating could lead to lots of House seats flipping.

“The pattern of midterm losses by the president’s party is more consistent in House elections than in Senate elections,” Abramowitz said.

The Senate could very well keep a narrow Republican majority, Abramowitz said, but Virginia will likely be unaffected.

“The personal advantage of incumbency isn’t what it used to be. That is true. I would say that Mark Warner is probably quite safe,” he said.

The results of these races will help solidify Trump’s legacy, Abramowitz said. Nationwide partisan redistricting efforts will have little sway on the outcome, he believes.

“Because you have both Democratic-controlled states and Republican-controlled states doing this, the net impact might be fairly small,” Abramowitz said.

The biggest factor driving people’s vote is party, Abramowitz said. The name on the ballot carries less significance in today’s polarized world than it used to.

“ A weeks a long time in politics “ ……. let alone 10 months.

Your’e flogging a dead horse there S Landreth. It’ll be dead by the time November rolls around.

^^ What midterms? King Trump won't be needing midterms...

Virginia high court paves the way for Democrats to hold redistricting referendum

The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday gave the state the green light to go forward with a special election to put Democrats’ redistricting plan before voters this spring.

“Today the Supreme Court of Virginia affirmed what we already know, Virginians will have the final say. The redistricting referendum on April 21 will move forward,” Virginia state House Speaker Don Scott (D) said in a statement.

Virginia Democrats hold a six-seat majority out of the state’s 11 congressional districts, but their plans for a redrawn map could give them as many as four pickup opportunities in this fall’s fight for control of Congress.

State lawmakers’ plan is to put the state constitutional amendment before voters this spring. If approved, the new map would temporarily take effect mid-decade, bypassing the state’s redistricting commission.

A state court blocked the effort last month, but Democrats appealed. Litigation is ongoing, but the new ruling, shared Friday by Democracy Docket, allows the April 21 referendum to go forward.

ATrump floats executive order on voter ID if SAVE Act stalls in Senate


President Trump on Friday indicated he will issue an executive order seeking to require voters to present proof of citizenship if the Senate does not pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, which passed in the House this week.

“There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not!” Trump wrote on Truth Social around 4:30 p.m. EST. “Also, the People of our Country are insisting on Citizenship, and No Mail-In Ballots, with exceptions for Military, Disability, Illness, or Travel.”

He followed up with a second post 30 minutes later floating an executive order.

“This is an issue that must be fought, and must be fought, NOW!” Trump wrote in a lengthy post on Truth Social. “If we can’t get it through Congress, there are Legal reasons why this SCAM is not permitted. I will be presenting them shortly, in the form of an Executive Order.”

He accused Democrats of being “horrible, disingenuous CHEATERS” who have “all sorts of reasons why it shouldn’t be passed, and then boldly laugh in the backrooms after their ridiculous presentations.”

“Republicans must put this at the top of every speech — It is a CAN’T MISS FOR RE-ELECTION IN THE MIDTERMS, AND BEYOND!” he continued. “Even Democrat Voters agree, 85%, that there should be Voter I.D.”

The SAVE Act passed in the House Wednesday in a 218-213 vote. However, it faces an uncertain path in the Senate, where the only Democrat to indicate support for the legislation is Sen. John Fetterman (Penn.). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has come out against the bill.

Republicans worry party won’t do enough to address costs before midterms

Some Senate Republicans are warning that the party is not doing enough to address affordability entering the midterm elections, with hopes of passing more big-ticket items this year quickly fading away.

Legislating has been difficult in this Congress, with fractious Republicans holding only a narrow majority, and is only expected to slow further in an election year. And President Trump last week poured cold water on the possibility of a second massive, GOP-only bill, saying in an interview that “we’ve gotten everything passed that we need.”

Some in the party think that’s a mistake — and worry the GOP does not have an ambitious enough legislative agenda for the rest of the year aimed at driving down costs, which is expected to be a top issue for voters in November.

“We’re not going to win the midterm by going to the American people and saying, ‘Look, we passed 11 out of 12 appropriations bills and we confirmed all of President Trump’s nominees,’” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said.
”The American people don’t care. That’s not what, when moms and dads lie down to sleep at night and can’t — that’s not what they’re worried about.
They’re worried about the cost of living. … In their minds, they’re tired of selling blood plasma to go grocery shopping.”

Kennedy has been a leading voice in favor of Republicans taking a second crack at a bill via budget reconciliation — a process that allows them to bypass the filibuster and pass a bill without any Democratic votes — to deal with items they weren’t able to fit into their previous reconciliation measure, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

“I still think that what we ought to be doing is true reconciliation. … I really think that that’s what we ought to be focused on right now,” he continued. “I just want to do something. Doing nothing is very hard.”

The 2026 agenda, however, is shaping up to be far different than last year’s, which saw the upper chamber spend vastly more time in session than usual as it ushered through some of Trump’s top priorities.

Instead, the calendar allots significantly more time for lawmakers to spend in their home states.

This means the congressional to-do list is far less ambitious and is headlined by must-pass items, including government funding, the farm bill and the annual National Defense Authorization Act.

“Are we doing enough? We’re not doing anything,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who is running to become the next governor of Alabama. “Everybody’s working on getting elected.”

Trump’s comments dismissing a second bill marked a blow for congressional Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who has been meeting with committee chairs as recently as last month about a possible path forward.

And getting bills through Congress outside the reconciliation process has proved exceedingly difficult. In the House, Johnson can afford to lose only one GOP vote on any party-line package, and in the Senate, deepening distrust and divisions between Republicans and Democrats have made the minority party increasingly leery about helping push legislation over the 60-vote threshold.

That still has not dissuaded some Republicans from wanting to give it a go.

“I see it as a missed opportunity,” one Senate GOP member said, pointing to the “rare” chances the party has had in a unified government.

Top Republicans, though, are turning their attention more to selling the legislation they’ve already passed, particularly Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Republicans have spent months worrying they weren’t able to effectively communicate the party’s signature legislative achievement to voters, especially as a historic government shutdown and endless fights over documents related to Jeffrey Epstein stole the spotlight.

With tax filing season near and November on the horizon, Republicans believe it is imperative to sell the bill they already passed — which made many of the 2017 tax cuts permanent.

“I am more focused on selling what we do have, which is huge,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who is up for reelection in the fall. “It’s a matter of focusing on that and getting our entire team working in the right direction to focus on the successes we’ve already had in the last year.”

One Senate GOP aide noted that upward of 16 Senate Republicans held events focused on that sales job during January, kicking off what they expect will be a months-long effort.

Additionally, some in the party are worried an attempt to pass a second bill would only complicate the party’s messaging and further drown out what they continue to believe is something they can run on throughout the year.

There’s also no consensus about what to include in a second partisan package.

There had been chatter about a uniparty fix on health care after the failed negotiations with Democrats over a possible extension of the enhanced ObamaCare subsidies that expired at the end of last year.

“We have to have a clear purpose that we’re trying to accomplish that helps the American people, and there’s not a clearly defined purpose right now to say this is what it would do and it could actually work through the parliamentarian process,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a member of GOP leadership. “At times, it gets confused. People are pursuing the tool rather than the task.”

Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) name-checked items related to defense and housing authority that could garner inclusion, adding that rumors about the death of a second reconciliation bill have been “greatly exaggerated.”

That would be welcomed by Kennedy and others.

“I’m not saying those bills aren’t important,” Kennedy said about the National Defense Authorization Act and farm bill. “I’m just saying that you can multitask, and we ought to be passing some bills that are important to the American people.

“I can cite your statistics about inflation and GDP growth and macroeconomics and microeconomics, and how many economists can dance on the head of a pen. I can do all that,” he continued. “But what you’re basically arguing to people is: Don’t believe your own lying checkbooks. It’s their checkbooks.
They’re looking at it. They don’t like what they see, so you’ve got to deal with it.

“That’s how you win elections,” he added. “And we’re not doing any of that.”

Cracks emerge in Trump’s ‘ruthless’ midterms strategy

The coalition that carried President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 was built on a few distinct pillars: a relentless economic message, a hard-line immigration stance that galvanized his base, an alliance with popular podcast hosts who amplified his appeal and a surge of low-propensity voters who showed up in historic numbers.

Now, with the 2026 midterms in sight, each of those pillars is showing cracks — and Republicans are quietly grappling with the possibility that the formula that delivered a commanding presidential victory may not survive a midterm election.

Trump’s approval rating has sunk to 41%, its lowest point in almost a year, according to aggregate polling averages. Public confidence in the economy remains weak. And a series of Democratic victories in special elections — nine seat flips in districts Trump previously carried, according to the Democratic National Committee — has rattled Republicans who once felt secure in their congressional majorities.

“The biggest two factors that ultimately determine these races are, first and foremost, the president’s approval numbers,” said one White House ally, who requested anonymity to describe private conversations with Capitol Hill. “Then, second, is how Americans feel about the economy.”

On both counts, the trends are moving in the wrong direction.

Trump has responded with a campaign-style blitz, crisscrossing the country with Vice President JD Vance to deliver economic speeches and dispatching Cabinet officials to tout the administration’s record. He has warned supporters that if Democrats recapture enough seats this fall, then they will try to impeach him for a third time.

“I campaign hard,” Trump said last month at a rally in Iowa. “We’ve got to win the midterms. That means Senate, and it means House.”

The president is leaning on his inner circle of advisers to gut-check his political instincts, including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, her deputy James Blair and other members of his senior staff, according to a person familiar with the matter. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill close to the president are also advising him, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the person said.

Trump’s former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita, pollster Tony Fabrizio, Wiles and Blair, along with several other administration officials, huddled on Tuesday at the private, members-only Capitol Hill Club to discuss the president’s midterms strategy, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

Wiles told conservative podcasters on “The Mom View” in early December that the White House’s strategy would be to “put [Trump] on the ballot” in the midterms. “So many of those low-propensity voters are Trump voters,” she added. “He’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again.”

But that coalition — which included historic gains among people of color and young voters — has shown signs of fracturing.

“Those are exactly the groups that he’s become much more unpopular with since he became president,” said Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report. “It’s very unclear whether those voters are even going to show up, but if they do, they may show up because they’re motivated to vote against the president’s party at this point.”

The economic argument, reversed
The party in control of the White House rarely gains seats in the midterms, and Republicans acknowledge that Trump’s political fortunes depend heavily on voters’ perceptions of the economy.

A surprisingly positive January jobs report, data showing inflation cooling year over year and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a record high left the White House humming with optimism last week. Republicans are also betting that higher tax refunds this spring — a result of the $3.4 trillion spending package passed last year — will begin to shift the public’s mood.

Yet the administration has struggled to convert favorable data points into a coherent economic pitch.

“Republicans haven’t really united around one economic message that voters are actually buying,” Dann said. “The president is kind of just saying, ‘Hey, guys, the economy is great.’”

The No. 1 piece of feedback from congressional offices to the White House, including at the staff level, is for the president to “just focus on the economy,” the White House ally said.

During a trip to Davos, Switzerland, Wiles told reporters that Trump will travel abroad less frequently this year — a comment that follows criticism from Republicans worried that he’s focused too much time on foreign policy.

“Folks are less inclined to be excited to talk about foreign policy matters, whether that be Venezuela or Ukraine or Greenland,” the White House ally added. “They really want to be talking about gas prices and inflation, and the good news that is coming on those fronts.”

Immigration: The issue that turned
Even as Trump mobilizes for the midterms, some of his own decisions have complicated the effort.

Immigration — the issue Trump credits with elevating him to the presidency twice — has become a drag on his approval ratings. A growing share of Americans now view his handling of the issue negatively, even as they support his border policies, with frustrations threatening to alienate independent voters and Latino Americans — two groups with which he made historic inroads en route to his 2024 victory.

The killing of Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minnesota deepened the backlash from the broader public, additionally opening a rift between the administration and gun rights supporters who criticized federal officials for rebuking Pretti for carrying a licensed firearm while observing arrests.

“It does feed a sense that the administration isn’t doing the best job it could,” Evan Siegfried, a Republican strategist, said. “It’s planting seeds of doubt, and those seeds could sprout.”

And a debate in Congress over funding for the Department of Homeland Security — and what reforms, if any, the administration will accept to rein in federal immigration enforcement — will test whether the administration is willing to support substantive changes to its deportation operations or will pursue only cosmetic changes.

Friendly hosts, skeptical coverage
In 2024, Trump’s campaign made a deliberate bet on nontraditional media — appearing on popular podcasts and long-form interview shows to reach voters who had tuned out legacy news outlets. The strategy worked. Hosts like Joe Rogan and Theo Von helped introduce Trump to new audiences with minimal pushback.

The White House plans to run that play again.

Trump and members of his Cabinet are expected to appear on popular podcasts ahead of the midterms, according to a person familiar with the strategy. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the vaccine skeptic-turned-health and human services secretary, recently appeared on “This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von.” Vance told “The Megyn Kelly Show” earlier this month that the White House plans to make a nontraditional media push. “It’s something we want to get back to,” Vance said, adding that such outlets have “more narrative power than the traditional media does.”

But the ecosystem that amplified Trump’s candidacy has begun generating its own critical coverage of his presidency.

Rogan, who hosts the most listened-to podcast in the country, has publicly compared Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s tactics to the Nazi gestapo. Von has criticized the administration’s handling of the Epstein files. The friendly hosts who once carried Trump’s message are now asking pointed questions — and reaching the very audiences the White House needs.

Trump recently told NBC News that the administration received “bad publicity” for the killings of Pretti and Renee Good by immigration enforcement officers. He added that he spoke to Rogan “a little bit” about his ICE concerns.

“I think we do a phenomenal job, but I don’t think we’re good at public relations,” Trump said.

Structural advantages, strategic missteps
The warning signs extend beyond polling. Republicans have underperformed or lost seats in multiple Republican-held territories across the country since Trump took office.

“Trump and Republicans should be nervous because Democrats are coming for their seats and their majorities,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a statement.

Republicans are not without advantages. The party holds a sizable Senate majority, and Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., reported more than $300 million on hand in January — part of a $1.5 billion war chest that gives vulnerable Republicans an unusual financial edge in a landscape where Democrats typically outraise their rivals.

But some of Trump’s decisions have undercut those efforts. He pardoned Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, a move he now regrets because Cuellar is running for re-election as a Democrat in a competitive House district. In Texas’ U.S. Senate race, Trump has declined to make an endorsement — he opted on Sunday to back the top three Republican candidates in the primary — leaving incumbent John Cornyn exposed to a costly primary challenge from MAGA-aligned Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

“He’s taken his eye off the ball” with decisions that “have been self-inflicted mistakes,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan newsletter from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Trump has also alarmed election officials by proposing to end state oversight of elections in “some areas,” rattling officials concerned that the remarks could be a precursor to election interference.

His approach to the election is “ruthless,” Kondik says. “He’s pulling out all the stops to try to win in the midterms.”

Whether the stops Trump is pulling are the right ones is the question hanging over the Republican Party — especially when the electorate he once energized is now the one he must answer to.

Trump Faces More GOP Defections After Spring Primaries—Massie

Representative Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican who has increasingly spoken out against the Trump administration, recently told Politico that the "retirement caucus is growing" after dozens of GOP members have decided not to seek reelection to the House of Representatives in this year's midterms.

“Once we get past March, April, and May, which contain a large portion of their Republican primaries, I think you’re going to see more defections," Massie said, adding that thanks to the razor-thin majority in the House, he only needs one or two "co-conspirators" to put pressure on the party "to get something done."

Why It Matters
Republicans have a slim majority in Congress with 218 seats to the Democrats' 213. While the GOP came out of the 2024 election on a high, having secured the White House and both chambers of Congress, some analysts have warned President Donald Trump faces an uphill battle to retain control of the House, which historically sees the ruling party suffer significant losses if they also control the White House during the sitting president's first midterm election.

The situation has only grown more complicated as lawmakers have privately and publicly started to criticize the administration and House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican. However, intraparty clashes are not uncommon, especially in a closely divided House where a small number of dissenters can shift the balance of power, and at times, force the speaker’s hand.

Cracks first started to show in Republican Party unity when Massie launched a bipartisan effort with Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, to push through the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which Johnson resisted and forced the lawmakers to resort to using a discharge petition in order to bypass the speaker. Some accused Johnson of delaying the swearing in newly-elected Representative Adelita Grijalva, an Arizona Democrat, due to the fact she would ultimately provide the final signature to pass the petition.

However, last year's federal government shutdown, which ended up the longest shutdown in U.S. history, proved to be more of a long-term carbuncle for the administration, as it brought to light some of the complaints and frustrations lawmakers had been holding back.

Then-Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia announced she would not seek reelection and finished out her tenure on January 5 of this year. Her departure would prove to be the start of a wider movement rather than a one-off instance.

By February, 30 Republican lawmakers had declared their intent to not seek reelection. However, according to available records dating back to 2012, a significant number of representatives retire each year—roughly 10 percent of the total chamber—and the divide between the parties fluctuates dramatically. In 2020, 36 Republicans decided not to seek reelection, while in 2022, 33 Democrats did, the most for each party in this time period.

Of the 30 Republicans not seeking reelection, eight are leaving to seek a seat in the Senate, with almost half of those seeking to unseat a senator from their party, including an effort to unseat Senator John Cornyn of Texas.

Republican Speaks Out on Party Frustrations
Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of the 30 Republicans retiring after this session, joined two of his colleagues in forcing a House vote on Trump's tariffs—a matter which the president has fiercely defended and fought for throughout his second administration.

Bacon told Politico he had heard other House Republicans complaining about the tariffs before ultimately voting to support the president anyway, saying that "some people live in fear."

He claimed that the White House and Trump had threatened retaliation against those who voted for the measure, and without it, might have seen dozens of Republicans break ranks for it.

Those threats have largely focused on Trump backing rival candidates in primaries, but with so many Republicans not seeking reelection, they have gained a sort of immunity, giving them the ability to vote more freely: In the end, six Republicans backed the vote against the tariffs.

What People Are Saying
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social last week: "Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries! Our Trade Deficit has been reduced by 78%, the Dow Jones has just hit 50,000, and the S&P, 7,000, all Numbers that were considered IMPOSSIBLE just one year ago. In addition, TARIFFS have given us Great National Security because the mere mention of the word has Countries agreeing to our strongest wishes. TARIFFS have given us Economic and National Security, and no Republican should be responsible for destroying this privilege."

Representative Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat, wrote on X earlier this month: "This is Trump's #1 tell. He spends zero time attacking the pedophiles—and instead attacks the Republican congressman who helped expose the pedophiles."

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...assie-11526739

Democrats expand their lead in the 2026 congressional election

Democrats have a 7-point lead over Republicans in voting intention for Congress. That's Democrats' largest lead since the Economist / YouGov polls resumed asking this question after the 2024 election, and in part reflects Republicans being more likely than Democrats to say they won't vote or aren't sure how they'd vote.

What you need to know about Americans' views on the 2026 congressional elections, as of the February 13 - 16, 2026 Economist / YouGov Poll:

• 47% of registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic Party candidate if elections for U.S. Congress were held today, while 40% would vote for the Republican Party candidate
  
  • Democrats have consistently led on this question in Economist / YouGov polls dating back to spring 2025, but this is the largest share of voters to prefer Democrats in any of the polls this election cycle

• Democrats' 7-point lead in preference for Congress is their largest in any Economist / YouGov polls this election cycle
• It's also a bigger Democratic edge in U.S. Congress vote preferences than at this point in the 2024 election (Democrats up by 2 points) or the 2022 election (Democrats up by 6 points)

GOP frets over competitive Texas Senate primary as early voting starts

Some Republicans are growing anxious that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) could be ousted in the competitive Texas GOP primary for Senate, giving Democrats a rare opening in the red Lone Star State this fall.

As James Talarico gains steam in the Democratic primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), across the aisle, Cornyn and some national Republicans are warning of a general election “massacre” for the party if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is leading the GOP race in recent polling, ends up at the top of their ticket.

The possibility of an endorsement from President Trump looms as a potential game changer in the tight race, but Trump was still undecided as early voting kicked off.

“Folks who have been paying attention to Texas politics have all seen this movie before,” said Ross Hunt, a GOP data analyst and pollster based in Dallas, pointing to past cycles where Democrats were optimistic about a potential flip that didn’t pan out.

“All that could change if Ken Paxton is the nominee,” he said. “If Paxton is on the ballot as the Republican nominee, that definitely gives the Democrats some oxygen they wouldn’t otherwise have.”

Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term in the upper chamber, is defending his seat in a competitive three-way race with Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas). The candidates have each emphasized their alignment with Trump, who said this week that he likes “all three of them, actually” and “we’ll see what happens” when it comes to an endorsement.

Early primary voting began Tuesday. And polls show no Republican with the majority support they’d need to avoid tipping the March 3 primary into a May 26 runoff.

A polling average from Decision Desk HQ shows Paxton 4 points ahead of Cornyn in the Republican primary, at roughly 32 percent support to 28 percent, respectively. Hunt brought in another 19 percent.

As ballots started to come in this week, Cornyn issued a harsh warning for his party.

“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas,” Cornyn told supporters in Fort Worth, Texas, as reported by NBC News.

Republicans’ national Senate campaign arm made a similar case in a memo earlier this month, arguing Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and that Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble” in the high-stakes midterms.

The group cited internal polling that showed Cornyn beating Crockett by 7 points and Talarico by 3 points in a hypothetical general election showdown — while Paxton defeated Crockett by just 1 point and lost to Talarico by 3 points.

An endorsement from Trump could change the game, though observers are divided on whether the president will ultimately weigh in as the race hurtles toward a possible runoff.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Semafor earlier this month that he’s cautioned Trump “many times” on consequences for the party if Cornyn isn’t the Texas GOP nominee.


Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) this week questioned why Trump and others in the GOP don’t “just lock down Texas” by rallying around Cornyn.

“If [Trump] wanted to help Cornyn, he would endorse [him] as soon as possible, and just every day that goes by where people vote without Cornyn having Trump’s endorsement is bad for Cornyn,” pollster Ross Hunt said. “His endorsement would benefit anyone, but it would have a disproportionately strong benefit for Cornyn.”

Cornyn told NBC News last month that he’d talked with Trump about a possible endorsement. But Paxton, whom Trump considered for U.S. attorney general in his second term, has also pitched himself as a MAGA leader.

Paxton’s team has emphasized his double-digit wins in past elections, as well as Cornyn’s struggle to clinch a majority in recent polls. But Cornyn has pointed to controversy around Paxton as a risk factor even in the reliably red state.

The conservative firebrand and two-term state attorney general was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges, though the state Senate later acquitted him. Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton (R), his wife of nearly four decades, filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds.”

Meanwhile, Wesley Hunt has maintained double-digit support in polls, all but ensuring that the race will become a runoff.

“The NRSC’s malicious omission of Wesley from their memo to convince President Trump to endorse Cornyn is repulsive,” a spokesperson for the congressman’s campaign told The Hill, using an abbreviation for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “If Republicans lose the majority, it will be traced back to their misguided investment in a 24-year incumbent.”

“There is a concerted effort by John Cornyn and many of his allies to essentially make the case against Ken Paxton … but there’s a real question as to whether that’s going to work,” said Josh Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

“One, Ken Paxton has assiduously courted the most conservative voters in the Texas electorate, who tend to be overrepresented in Republican primaries,” Blank said. “Further complicating that, of course, is Wesley Hunt, who has done surprisingly well, if the polling is accurate.”

Republican operatives in the state maintain any of the three GOP candidates would have the edge over whoever wins the Democratic nod.

The last Democratic senator in Texas, which voted for Trump by double digits in 2024, was ousted more than two decades ago — and a statewide win for the party has since been seen as a long shot.

Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within a few points of toppling Sen. Ted Cruz (R) during 2018’s “blue wave,” and Democrat Colin Allred lost another competitive race against Cruz in 2024.

While flipping Cornyn’s seat remains a tall order, some Texas Republicans argue that a Paxton win in the primary could give Democrats — particularly Talarico — an opening in the fall.

“Certainly, you have to be concerned. If Paxton and Talarico come out, that’s the worst possible match-up for Republicans,” said Texas Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo.

Though he predicted Paxton would still win the race, Republicans would “have to spend a lot of money they’d rather not spend” in an otherwise safe state while attracting a surge of Democratic dollars.

“The Democrats are excited to be against Paxton. They feel like he’s a vulnerable candidate,” Minchillo said.

Crockett has the name ID advantage in the Democratic race, and some recent polling has shown her ahead of Talarico.

Both contenders face questions about their statewide electability, with the race viewed as a test of their differing tone and approach more than ideology. Crockett is a popular but polarizing progressive firebrand who could rally Democrats, while Talarico has a more understated tack that could reach across the aisle.

That gives him “a path to victory that Crockett doesn’t have,” said Ross Hunt, the GOP pollster, arguing that pro-Crockett Democrats would likely still turn out to support Talarico in a general election.

“The concern over potentially losing all the consistent Republican statewide officeholder leadership is one that we have to be constantly diligent about, and frankly, have to be diligent about no matter who the Republican nominee is,” said James Dickey, a former Texas GOP chair.

“It’s every bit as important, if not more important, for the attorney general race or the comptroller race or the governor’s race … but it is absolutely critical for the Senate race.”

Federal court rejects GOP bid to block new House map in Utah

A federal court on Monday rejected the latest Republican-led bid to block a new congressional map in Utah that could give Democrats a seat in the red state.

A three-judge panel denied a motion for a preliminary injunction that would have blocked the new lines from going into effect before this fall’s midterms.

“Because we conclude Plaintiffs have failed to demonstrate a likelihood of success of the merits, and because the Purcell principle counsels this court not to enjoin a state’s election laws in the period close to the election, we DENY Plaintiffs’ preliminary injunction motion,” reads the filing in U.S. District Court for the District of Utah.

Unlike redistricting efforts in Texas and California, where plans were put forward to boost party margins in the House ahead of the 2026 midterms, Utah was forced to redraw its maps by a court order when a state judge tossed GOP-drawn maps and imposed a new plan.

Reps. Celeste Maloy and Burgess Owens, alongside several fellow Utah Republicans, filed suit earlier this month, alleging that the state judge violated the Constitution and asking that the map selection be sent back to the state Legislature, where Republicans hold a supermajority.

The case could make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court — but Monday’s ruling is the latest blow for the GOP after the Utah Supreme Court dismissed another effort to stay the congressional map last week.

The new map at issue could offer a rare pickup opportunity for Democrats in a red state that voted for President Trump by nearly 22 points in 2024.

Republicans currently hold all four congressional districts, but the redrawn lines make space for a more Democrat-favorable district around Salt Lake County.

Meanwhile, Utah Republicans said this month that they have enough signatures to put forward a ballot initiative that would do away with the state’s independent redistricting commission.

Trump endorsed the initiative in a Truth Social post last month.

“Utahns deserve Maps drawn by those they elect, not Rogue Judges or Leftwing Activists who never faced the Voters, and, therefore, I encourage all Patriotic Utahns, Republicans, and MAGA Supporters who love their Great State and Country to sign this initiative, ASAP,” Trump wrote in the post.

The filing period for congressional candidates in Utah opens March 9, and primary elections are set for June 23.

National Democrats hailed the ruling as a “victory for fair representation” in Utah.

“Now, the courts once again sided with Utah voters and denied Republicans’ attempts to block a fair map. While Donald Trump and his allies try to rig elections because they are scared of losing in November, Democrats will continue fighting to ensure Utahns have a fair map that keeps communities connected,” Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said in a statement.

Dem AGs plot to thwart Trump election interference

Democratic attorneys general are bracing for President Donald Trump to interfere in the midterm elections — and war-gaming how to stop him.

The party’s top prosecutors have been strategizing for months about how to counter a series of increasingly extreme scenarios they fear could play out this fall. They have huddled in hotel conference rooms and over Zoom meetings to run tabletop exercises anticipating the president’s moves and choreographing responses.

They’re preparing for the administration to potentially confiscate ballots and voting machines, strip resources from the postal service to disrupt the delivery of mail ballots, and send military members and immigration agents to polling locations to intimidate voters. They’re readying motions for temporary restraining orders to preserve election materials and remove armed forces from voting sites.

And, as the president attempts to assert federal control over elections, seize voter data and relitigate false claims of fraud from 2020, they’re monitoring Trump and his allies’ every word about elections for clues about what his administration could do next.

“[Trump] wants to continue to have his party prevail, seemingly by whatever means necessary,” California Attorney General Rob Bonta said. “So we have to be ready for that, sad and tragic as it is.”

The Democratic attorneys general, some of whom battled Trump’s election-subversion tactics in the courts in 2020, have already challenged the president’s efforts to overhaul election administration and access sensitive voter data ahead of a midterm contest that could turn him into a lame duck.

Nineteen of them banded together to sue the administration last spring over Trump’s sweeping executive order targeting voting rules, most of which has since been blocked by courts. When the Department of Justice dispatched election monitors to polling locations in New Jersey and California last November, Bonta deployed his own observers in his state in response.

But the president’s more recent moves have prosecutors ratcheting up their preparations for November, five Democratic attorneys general said in interviews.

Earlier this month, Trump called on Republicans to “nationalize” voting and suggested the federal government should intervene in election operations in swing-states’ predominantly blue cities like Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia — places that have been central to his election conspiracy theories for years. House Republicans passed one set of voting restrictions and are teeing up another, though the measures are unlikely to clear the Senate. And Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem raised alarms among Democrats when she said her department is working to ensure “that we have the right people voting, electing the right leaders.”

Trump and his allies’ rhetoric is the type of “red-alarm fire that people need to take very seriously,” said Washington Attorney General Nick Brown, who leads the Democratic Attorneys General Association’s election protection working group.

“He will try anything,” Brown said, so “we have to just sort of think creatively about: If you were the president and you were trying to invalidate an election or undermine an election, what are the oddball, ludicrous, unconstitutional theories that you might advance?”

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson fired back in a statement accusing Democrats of “plotting to undermine commonsense election integrity efforts supported by a vast majority of Americans” and arguing existing law gives the Department of Justice “full authority to ensure states comply with federal election laws, which mandate accurate state voter rolls.”

“President Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections, and that includes totally accurate and up-to-date voter rolls free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters,” Jackson said. “The President has also urged Congress to pass the SAVE Act and other legislative proposals that would establish a uniform standard of photo ID for voting, prohibit no-excuse mail-in voting, and end the practice of ballot harvesting to ensure the safety and security of our elections.”

Democratic attorneys general have panned the SAVE Act as an attack on the right to vote and urged Congress not to pass it and other measures Trump is pushing.

They also fear the Trump administration could aim to intimidate legal voters by sending Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to polling locations.

ICE chief Todd Lyons said in a congressional hearing earlier this month that there’s “no reason” for ICE officials to be deployed to polling facilities. But MAGA influencer Steve Bannon, a former White House strategist, is encouraging the president to take that step to prevent noncitizens from voting, despite its rare occurrence. He’s also urging Trump to send in troops, further stoking Democrats’ concerns.

When asked about Bannon’s comments during a briefing earlier this month, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said while she “can’t guarantee that an ICE agent won’t be around a polling location in November” she hadn’t “heard the president discuss any formal plans to put ICE outside of polling locations,” calling the question “disingenuous.”

Democrats aren’t reassured.

“If the president said, ‘Look, I want my ICE people to protect American elections … go to all these polling places and stand out in front with guns,’ I think they would do it,” said Attorney General Keith Ellison of Minnesota, where an immigration enforcement surge earlier this year resulted in two deaths. “And I think we all need to be prepared to deal with that problem.”

Several Democratic attorneys general said they’re particularly alarmed after the FBI seized voting records in Fulton County, Georgia, based on a referral from Kurt Olsen, an attorney who worked with Trump to undermine the 2020 election results. They’re now bracing for similar seizures in other places Trump has previously targeted over debunked claims of voter fraud.

Those concerns are heightened in battleground states with contests that could decide control of Congress.

“We recognize that what happened in Fulton County could happen in Detroit. Not because there’s any merit to claims that anything wrong happened in Detroit, but because we know that those claims will be made again,” said Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel of swing-state Michigan.

“The president and his administration know and understand that Democrats don’t win statewide in Michigan without counting the Detroit vote,” she added. “So of course Trump wants to undermine in people’s minds the integrity of Detroit elections, even though that’s not borne fruit whenever that has been investigated.”

Democrats in states that rely heavily on mail-in ballots are also girding for an assault on the voting system that Trump is trying to eliminate, but that GOP operatives and even some Republicans in Congress support as a way to keep voters engaged in non-presidential years.

They are worried about Trump weaponizing the postal service, either by again blocking funding for the agency or installing allies to slow operations. And they cautioned that his push to discount ballots that are postmarked by Election Day but arrive afterward could disenfranchise voters in states with grace periods. The Supreme Court is due to consider a case on ballot deadlines next month.

Democratic attorneys general, meanwhile, will argue in a lower court next week in a multistate lawsuit seeking to permanently block portions of Trump’s executive order — which includes cutting off mail ballots and requiring documentary proof of citizenship for the national voter registration form — from taking effect.

Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, who is co-leading the lawsuit alongside Bonta, urged his counterparts to “stay nimble.”

Trump “likes to sow chaos because he thinks it’s going to throw people off their game,” Ford said. “But he has met his match when it comes to the Nevada attorney general’s office; he’s met his match when it comes to the Democratic attorneys general.”

There is little doubt that Trump will try to get gangs on Gestapo style thugs whether they're ICE or "legal carry" Maga nutters at polling stations to make Dem voters afraid. He is a horrible horrible human being...

Trump supporters are way less likely to vote in the midterms than Democrats, new poll

Supporters of President Donald Trump are less likely to head to the polls in November’s midterms, leaving Republicans facing a worrying enthusiasm gap, according to a new poll.

The latest survey from The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos finds that 79 percent of registered Democrats say they are certain to cast their ballots this fall, compared with just 65 percent of Republicans.

That 14-point gap is the largest the opposition party has recorded since at least 2006 and compares favorably with the five-point edge they had in January 2018, after which Democrats went on to win back the House of Representatives with ease in the middle of Trump’s first term.

Virginia Democrats in House backing redistricting proposal

Virginia Democrats in the U.S. House are urging voters to support a constitutional amendment that would permit redistricting ahead of the midterm elections after a state judge recently imposed a temporarily block on the referendum.

The judge’s emergency injunction remains in effect until March 18, past the beginning of the early voting period starting on March 6. Final votes on this new map, which would swing up to four additional House seats in Democrats’ favor, are scheduled for April 21.

The state Supreme Court previously permitted this ballot measure to move forward earlier this month amid continuing litigation after a separate lower court blocked the referendum, ruling that Democrats had defied the state’s redistricting procedures.

All six Democrats in the state’s 11-seat House delegation expressed their support for the ballot measure in a Thursday letter published by Punchbowl News.

The legislators noted that the amendment is “not a permanent change” and will expire in 2030.

The group criticized new maps in states such as North Carolina and Texas, which favor Republicans, saying these changes are “part of a broader pattern” of the Trump administration acting in ways that “abuse its power and avoid accountability.”

“That is the reality facing Virginia,” the legislators wrote. “As the elected representatives of communities across this Commonwealth, we cannot ignore what it means for the millions of people we serve.”

The group included Virginia Democratic Reps. Bobby Scott, Don Beyer, Jennifer McClellan, Suhas Subramanyam, Eugene Vindman and James Walkinshaw.

“Virginians now face a choice: do nothing while our voice in Congress is overridden by the schemes in MAGA-controlled states, or respond with a temporary, voter-approved step to level the playing field and ensure the nationwide map is not structurally rigged ahead of the 2026 election,” the group wrote.

The amendment has received pushback from GOP representatives, who currently fill five seats in the state’s congressional delegation.

House Democrats announce first group of ‘Red to Blue’ candidates

The House Democrats’ campaign arm on Monday named the first group of candidates for its program dedicated to supporting contenders looking to flip key GOP-held districts as the party looks to retake the House majority in November.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) named 12 candidates to its “Red to Blue” program, which gives additional resources to Democratic candidates running in competitive battleground districts.

The Democrats named include Marine Corps. vet JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, former Iowa state Rep. Christina Bohannan for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor for Virginia’s 1st Congressional District and former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) for Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, among others.

Some candidates previously ran in 2024 but lost.

“House Democrats are on offense and poised to take back the majority, thanks in large part to the strength of our candidates,” said DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) in a statement.

“The candidates named to this first round of our Red to Blue program are united by their desire to fight for hardworking families in their districts — not the billionaires bankrolling Republicans’ corrupt and divisive machine,” she added. “They are laser-focused on lowering costs, saving health care, and putting people first, as opposed to their Republican opponents who have abandoned everyday Americans so they can give handouts to the privileged and the elite.”

Democrats’ plan to flip the House is looking increasingly likely as the party overperforms in key special elections and as the political environment shapes up to something akin to the anti-GOP 2018 midterm cycle during President Trump’s first term.

The House GOP majority is at an already slim 218-214 breakdown, meaning Republicans can only afford one defection assuming all members are present and voting.

There has been some speculation that Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.) may retire early — rumors his office denies — though an early exit would only complicate the GOP’s narrow control even further.

Midterm ‘blue wave’ could block Trump’s agenda and launch investigations – here’s what’s at stake

On the first Tuesday of November, Americans will decide whether to keep Congress under Donald Trump’s control, or hand power to the Democrats. The first national elections since the 2024 polls that brought Trump back to the White House, the 3 November midterms will be a crucial test of whether the president’s handling of top issues such as the economy and immigration have met Americans’ expectations. On Tuesday, voters will cast ballots in initial state primaries, with more to follow in the months ahead.

Up for grabs in November are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate, and if Republicans lose their majorities in either chamber, it will alter the course of Trump’s presidency. Should Democrats take the House, they will gain the power to issue subpoenas as they investigate his administration, and can block the president’s legislative agenda. Should they wrest control of the Senate from the GOP, Democrats could stop Trump from appointing nominees to cabinet positions and the federal judiciary, including the supreme court.

The lower chamber, which Republicans control by no more than three seats, appears to be the easiest prize for Democrats. The minority party will need to win four seats – at least three of which must come from states that voted for Trump – to regain the majority, while defending two other seats in swing states.

“The least surprising outcome in November would be the same outcome we had in 2018,” when midterms were held during Trump’s first term, “which is that Democrats win the House, the Republicans hold the Senate,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball. That year, Democrats won 41 House seats and retook the majority for the first time in eight years.

Kondik and other experts say that signs have already emerged of a “blue wave” building that could indicate a strong performance by Democratic candidates in November. But the scramble by red and blue states to redraw congressional maps in the ruling party’s favor remains a wild card, and even if the Democrats do well this year, it does not necessarily mean that the larger issues which cost them the presidency in 2024 are resolved.

Here are four trends to watch ahead of November’s midterm elections:

Will the coalition that elected Trump return?
Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in 2024 sent alarm bells ringing among Democrats because of the voters who backed him. An analysis by the Pew Research Center found that, in addition to building up his margins in rural areas, Trump made inroads with groups that typically form the backbone of the Democratic base, including Hispanic and Black voters, and young people. If that coalition re-emerges in November to vote for Republicans, it will be a bad sign for Democrats’ hopes of taking control of Congress – but there is already evidence that it will not.

The first is the trend of the most engaged voters – the sort who can be counted on to turn out for off-year and midterm elections – backing Democrats rather than the GOP. That dynamic was seen repeatedly under Joe Biden, and again last year, and seems set to repeat in 2026.

“You always see a smaller electorate in midterms than you do in presidential elections. My guess is that the falloff is going to be disproportionately more Trump people as opposed to Harris people,” Kondik said.

Another red flag for Trump is his approval rating. Many surveys show him as unpopular, if not more, than he was at this point in 2018. But most worrying for the president are that his marks on the handling of the economy are even lower than they were eight years ago, said Erin Covey, US House editor for the Cook Political Report.

“Because the economy is, obviously, such a driving issue for most voters, that bodes particularly ill for Republicans, because they’re going to have to defend Trump’s handling of the economy this November,” Covey said. Despite Trump’s campaign promise of lower prices, the inflation rate has remained above normal, while hiring has been uneven.

The final headwind Republicans hoping to serve in the House or Senate are facing is the president’s absence from the ballot, meaning the unique draw he has with voters is unlikely to be present this year.

“When Donald Trump’s not on the ticket, there’s a pretty sizable shift away from his hardcore voters turning out to vote,” said Dan Sena, a political strategist who led House Democrats’ campaign arm, the Democratic congressional campaign committee, during their 2018 victories.

Will Democrats get their groove back?
The 2024 election marked a low point for Democrats, but in the months that followed, the party’s candidates swept off-year gubernatorial and state legislative elections in Virginia and New Jersey, and also managed to win seats in state legislative districts in Iowa and Louisiana that had backed Trump.

For Kondik, the evidence points to a repeat for Democrats of their performance in Trump’s first midterms, when Republicans were routed from the House. “I think the environment is going to be pretty similar to 2018, and I think we would categorize that as a wave year,” he said.

But the wave may have limits. In 2018, the Cook Political Report rated 30 districts as toss-ups, and 44 as leaning towards either the Democrats or Republicans. This year, only 18 districts are considered toss-ups, and a combined 18 others lean towards either party. Sena characterized the diminished battlefield, which he said was a consequence of redistricting by states nationwide, as a predictor of small House majorities for years to come.

“I think we’re living in a world where the Democratic majority or the Republican majority is going to be four or five seats in either direction for some time,” Sena said.

And the momentum Democrats appear to have in taking the House may not be present in the Senate. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic minority leader, said he believes the party can win back the majority by picking up seats in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska. But of those four, only Maine voted for Harris in 2024. North Carolina is a swing state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, while Ohio and Alaska backed Trump by double digits last year.

To win those red states, Kondik said, “Democrats are going to have to not just reclaim some of the voters they lost in 2024 among non-white voters, but they also probably would have to turn back the clock with white working-class voters and reclaim some of that block, too. And that’s a block that’s been pretty solidly for Trump since 2016.”

“What could crack those states open,” he said, “would probably be real anger about the economy.”

Will redistricting upend the election?
With Trump’s backing, Texas’s Republican-controlled state legislature redrew its congressional maps last year, with the goal of bolstering the GOP’s chances of holding on to the House majority in the midterms. Democratic-led California responded by having voters approve new maps that benefited Democrats, sparking a tit-for-tat gerrymandering battle between states where Democrats and Republicans hold complete control of government. .

The end results of that battle are not yet known, and may not be for months. Among the outstanding variables are the success of redistricting efforts in Democratic-led Virginia and Republican-dominated Florida, as well as a supreme court case that could net the GOP additional seats in southern states. Thus far, Covey described the bipartisan gerrymandering spree as “a wash”.

“It’s been a lot of work for, really, not much of a seat gain for either side,” she said. “On a good night for Republicans, maybe they net like four seats from redistricting, but Democrats could also net four seats from redistricting.”

But Sena said signs indicate that Republicans may ultimately prevail in the redistricting battle, simply because they will be able to stem losses they would otherwise suffer in a wave election.

Can Trump meddle in the elections?
Trump has made little secret of his desire to interfere with how the midterm elections are run. “The Republicans should say: ‘We want to take over.’ We should take over the voting, the voting in at least many – 15 places – the Republicans ought to nationalize the voting,” he said during an appearance earlier this month on Dan Bongino’s podcast. He later reiterated that the federal government should target voting procedures in heavily Democratic cities like Detroit and Atlanta.

Trump cannot unilaterally nationalize elections – the constitution grants the president no power over how elections are run, instead giving that authority to the states. Congress, however, can pass laws to set uniform standards for federal elections.

But the president has already started to undermine the election in other ways.

Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, is leading an investigation into voting machines, and the FBI in late January undertook an unprecedented search of the Fulton county, Georgia, election office and seized ballots related to the 2020 election. . The basis for the raid was later revealed to be recycled and debunked claims about the 2020 election. Separately, Kurt Olsen, a lawyer who was at the forefront of trying to overturn the 2020 election, is leading a White House effort focused on election integrity issues, and a US attorney in Missouri is leading a voting fraud investigation, about which little is known.

The administration is simultaneously moving to stir up fears that illegal voting by noncitizens – which is extremely rare – will undermine the election. . The Department of Homeland Security recently sent a memo, seen by the Guardian, instructing agents in its investigative arm to “identify any person who registered to vote, and/or voted in any federal, state or local election, and subsequently became naturalized United States citizens”.

White House, justice department and homeland security officials are regularly meeting to discuss voting and election issues, including the possibility of sending law enforcement to the polls in November, according to a person familiar with the matter. Federal law bars the military or federal agents from being deployed unless “such force be necessary to repel armed enemies of the United States”.

Cleta Mitchell, a conservative lawyer who also assisted Trump’s failed effort to overturn the 2020 race, has suggested the president can declare some kind of national emergency to seize power over elections.

“The president’s authority is limited in his role with regard to elections except where there is a threat to the national sovereignty of the United States – as I think that we can establish with the porous system that we have,” Mitchell said. “Then, I think maybe the president is thinking he will exercise some emergency powers to protect the federal elections going forward.”

Legal experts say the president’s emergency powers give him no authority over elections.

Trump's threats to U.S. elections loom large at House Dems policy retreat

House Democrats grapple with Trump’s threats to U.S. elections: ‘This is a five-alarm fire’

Key Points

• House Democrats looked ahead on their policy retreat this week in northern Virginia about how to counter President Donald Trump’s push to assume federal control of elections.
• Democrats talked about a counterattack that includes litigation, legislation and mobilization to beat back what they view as overt attempts at voter suppression.
• Trump has ramped up his rhetoric around elections recently, calling for the nationalization of elections ahead of the 2026 midterms.

House Democrats this week laid out their plans to counter President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about “nationalizing” this year’s elections ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The lawmakers convened at their annual policy retreat, where they set their agenda for the year and hone campaign messaging. They met in northern Virginia this week following Trump’s escalating calls for voter-ID requirements at the polls and his desire to require presenting documents to register to vote, both changes that would likely disenfranchise voters across the U.S. A pending Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act also looms large, and Trump has said he is considering ways of imposing the changes he wants even if Congress does not pass legislation.

“This is a five alarm fire,” Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Ala., said at a Congressional Black Caucus press conference at the retreat’s close on Friday. “We are going to fight back, and we are going to use every tool in the toolkit.”

Sewell, who is also a member of the House Administration Committee that has jurisdiction over federal elections, said options include litigating, legislating and mobilizing. But with a minority in both chambers, Democrats are somewhat limited in the run-up to the pivotal 2026 midterm elections that will decide control of the House.

“The vast majority of Americans support President Trump’s commonsense election integrity agenda, Democrat politicians should too,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in an emailed statement.

Trump in recent months has again become laser-focused on elections, rehashing some of his old, unfounded claims about the 2020 presidential contest being “rigged” and noncitizens voting. It is illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal elections and instances are rare. The FBI in January seized ballots in Fulton County, Ga., a precinct that Trump lost to Joe Biden.

The president has recently called to “nationalize” elections. He has pushed for the Senate to pass a controversial bill, dubbed the SAVE America Act, that would require proof of citizenship to register and photo identification to cast a ballot.

“President Trump is committed to ensuring that Americans have full confidence in the administration of elections, and that includes totally accurate and up-to-date voter rolls free of errors and unlawfully registered non-citizen voters,” Jackson said in her statement. ”[The] President has also urged Congress to pass the SAVE Act and other legislative proposals that would establish a uniform standard of photo ID for voting, prohibit no-excuse mail-in voting, and end the practice of ballot harvesting to ensure the safety and security of our elections.”

Trump threatened earlier this month to unilaterally impose voter ID restrictions ahead of November’s elections. MS NOW reported Thursday that he has instructed White House lawyers to review the feasibility of such an order. And the Washington Post reported that a group of pro-Trump activist is circulating a draft executive order to effectuate that goal that is premised on Chinese interference in the 2020 election.

Rep. Joe Morelle, D-N.Y., said these attempts have “shaky” legal footing.

“I’m deeply skeptical of any evidence that they suddenly have six years later,” Morelle said in an interview at the retreat.

Morelle, in his capacity as the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, is leading House Democrats’ response to the Trump administration’s elections priorities. He’s also preparing for the potential fallout from a challenge to a section of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that, if upheld, could eliminate some majority-minority Democratic-held districts. The Supreme Court is expected to release its decision on that case sometime between now and June.

That Democratic effort includes war-gaming different potential election scenarios, working on litigation and crafting messaging, Morelle said. Sewell, meanwhile, said the CBC has held several all-day sessions on the topic of voting rights to help hone its response.

“One of the things I think we really need to focus on, especially in the wake of the seizure of the ballots in Fulton County, is there’s got to be a strong legal basis that we lay out now that’s in objection to what they’re doing on that front,” Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., said at the CBC press conference.

Democrats also articulated fears that Trump could deploy Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and National Guard members to polling places as a means of voter suppression in November.

“Every year we do a grassroots piece where you have people, poll watchers and the like. But it’s got to be supercharged, on steroids this time around,” Ivey said. “We’ve seen this movie before. It’s been a long time since it was this overt, but I think we have to have people who are trained and ready to be in all of these polling places.”

Saving democracy vs. affordability?
Democrats were laser focused on cost-of-living issues throughout the retreat, which included appearances by Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and organized labor leaders. Affordability is already shaping up to be a key message to voters for Democrats this year.

But Morelle said members are “acutely attuned” to potential threats to elections. Most of the conversations he had during the retreat were related to election security, he said.

Still, after their message on Trump’s threats to democracy fell flat in the 2024 cycle, they face a strategic challenge: Does raising the election issue take away from their messaging on the economy?

“You can walk and chew gum at the same time,” Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., a member of the CBC and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in an interview. Affordability is the top concern, Waters said, but “Democrats have to be very concerned about what the president is doing — it is literally voter suppression.”

Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., the ranking member on the House Judiciary Committee and a former member of the House Jan. 6 Select Committee, and Morelle both said Democrats do not have to choose one or the other.

“I don’t buy the argument that we either have to talk about popular democracy or we have to talk about middle-class affordability,” Raskin said in an interview. “To me, these are the same issue. We need government that is going to be an instrument for the common good of all the people, and not an instrument for the corrupt self enrichment of the guy who gets in and his family and his friends.”

“I don’t think [Americans] think about it sort of in an esoteric, theoretical way, ‘democracy needs to be defended,’” Morelle said. “I think what they are growing in their awareness is, our access to the ballot has a great deal to do with the decisions that will affect the bottom line for my family.”

_________

How Trump's war could affect the midterm elections

Trump presses ahead with Iran war despite warnings of political risk for midterms

U.S. President Donald Trump pressed ahead [at]with military strikes against Iran despite private warnings from senior aides that the escalation could be difficult to contain and carry political risks for Republicans in November’s midterm elections, [at]according to two senior White House officials and a Republican close to the administration.

The large-scale attack has drawn near-unanimous praise from foreign policy hawks in Washington, who have long dreamed of toppling the authoritarian regime in Tehran. But some White House officials worry the foreign policy gamble may derail Republican chances of holding onto control of Congress at a time when war-wary voters are more concerned with the cost of living than conflicts abroad.

Before the strikes, Trump repeatedly sought briefings on how the military action could allow him to project strength domestically, the senior White House officials said. Top aides cautioned that U.S. intelligence did not provide a clear guarantee that escalation could be avoided once strikes began and that the administration risked tying its political fortunes to an unpredictable aftermath.

Trump ultimately sided with those who believed decisive action would show him as a strong leader, even if it carried long-term risks, the officials said.

Democrats are calling Talarico over Crockett as the candidate for Senate. Talarico probably has the best chance of winning. He’s a bit too Christian for my liking but otherwise ok. I’d rather see Jasmine Crockett as a senator.

^ I prefer Crockett too, but both are good candidates.

As for their actually being a fair midterm election or a midterm election at all - that's doubtful. Trump is Trump.

Trump says he will soon endorse in Cornyn-Paxton runoff

Trump says he will soon endorse in runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton

President Donald Trump said he would “soon” endorse a candidate in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate and, in doing so, call on whomever he does not endorse to drop out of the race — though he did not specify whether he would back Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that the stakes of Texas’ Senate race in November are too high to allow the Cornyn-Paxton contest to go on. The two Republicans finished just over one point apart in Tuesday’s primary, but neither reached the majority threshold to win outright, forcing a May 26 overtime round.

“The Republican primary race for the United States Senate in the Great State of Texas, a State I LOVE and won 3 times in Records Numbers (the HIGHEST vote ever recorded, by far!!!), cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer,” Trump wrote. “IT MUST STOP NOW!”

Touting the power of his endorsement in Texas — nearly all of the candidates he backed won outright or advanced to runoffs — Trump said he planned to weigh in imminently.

“I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!“ Trump said. “Is that fair? We must win in November!!!”

With nearly all the vote tallied in Tuesday’s primary, Cornyn led with 42% to Paxton’s 41%, according to unofficial returns.

Trump said the eventual nominee must run a better race.

“Both John and Ken ran great races, but not good enough,” he wrote. “Now, this one, must be PERFECT!”

The White House has stayed out of the bruising primary race between Cornyn and Paxton, which has already seen nearly $100 million in spending and divided the Texas GOP. Both camps have made overtures to Trump for his endorsement, convinced it will be the decisive factor in the race.

At a rally in Corpus Christi Friday before the primary, Trump intimated that he had “pretty much” decided who to back while declining to name his pick.

The contest to earn Trump’s endorsement has been nearly as furious as the primary itself, intensified by Trump’s clear interest in the race but decision to stay out thus far.

Cornyn and his allies, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have made a financial and electability-backed argument to Trump, saying that Paxton would be laden down by his history of legal and personal baggage if he is the nominee, costing Republicans untold millions in the general election that could be spent in more competitive states. Cornyn has also contended that Paxton’s candidacy would imperil down-ballot Republicans, particularly in U.S. House races.

Paxton, by contrast, has argued that his grassroots support among the MAGA base of the party will make it easier for Republicans to turn out the lower-propensity members of Trump’s coalition who tend to stay home when the president is not on the ballot and counteract Democratic enthusiasm.

Republicans in Washington and Texas, including Cornyn, have been clear-eyed about the danger they see in the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico. They openly rooted for his primary opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, and while they believe Talarico is flawed, some Republicans acknowledge it could be a more expensive proposition to negatively define the state legislator, who was less well-known than Crockett.

Without acknowledging Talarico by name, Trump labeled him the “Radical Left Opponent” and said the party must “TOTALLY FOCUS on putting him away, quickly and decisively!”

LIVE: James Talarico speaks after winning Texas Senate Democratic primary

Highlight

Texas voters smash recent midterm turnout records

Nearly one in four registered voters in Texas cast a ballot in Tuesday’s primaries, a high-water mark for midterm elections in the state’s recent history, driven by electrifying momentum surrounding both parties’ races for U.S. Senate.

In all, some 4.3 million Texans voted across the Democratic and Republican primaries, according to unofficial numbers on the Texas Secretary of State’s Office as of 1 p.m. Wednesday. The turnout was divided between about 2.2 million ballots in the Democratic primary and more than 2 million on the Republican side; it was the first time with higher Democratic turnout since 2020, when voters flocked to weigh in on the party’s open presidential primary.

The higher turnout on the Democratic side, despite the draw of spicy contests at the top for both parties’ ballots, has helped fuel Democrats’ hopes that backlash to President Donald Trump’s policies could propel them to their first statewide win since 1994.

Should that become reality, the political trophy could be claimed by their nominee for Senate, state Rep. James Talarico, who Democratic voters selected over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas. Meanwhile Republicans sent two party stalwarts, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, into a runoff to decide who will face Talarico in November.

Paxton offers conditions for potential exit from Texas Senate race

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) suggested Thursday that he would be open to dropping out of the hotly contested Texas Senate primary against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) if Senate Republicans met several conditions.

Paxton said on Thursday he would consider exiting the race if Senate leadership eliminated the filibuster — the 60-vote threshold needed to clear most legislation in the upper chamber — and passed a bill that would require voters to show proof of citizenship to register to vote.

The shift from Paxton comes after President Trump on Wednesday said he plans to endorse in the Senate GOP primary “soon” and called for whomever he doesn’t endorse to drop out of the race.

2026 Texas Senate - Cornyn vs. Talarico | RealClearPolling