Thread: Chinese Whispers

Originally Posted by Shutree

We are a few days away from the CCP's Fourth Plenum.
Will Xi even be there?
Rumours are that Wang Yang will succeed him on an interim basis while the competing factions try to agree a way forward.
Xi, meanwhile, might or might not have had another stroke and be lying in a hospital bed somewhere.

Of course, Xi didn't get where he is without knowing how to play the game. He has lost the support of the party elders and of the military, but they don't want something that looks like a coup, so Xi has room to manoeuvre. If he doesn't go willingly or suffer a terminal medical problem then only the Fourth Plenum could vote him out. There are about 370 members of the plenum and they all owe their positions to Xi. It seems unlikely that a majority of them want to be turkeys voting for Christmas, so it remains possible that Xi could hold on to his position until his term is up in 2027.

That would not sit well with the members of the politburo who believe that Li Keqiang's death was a political assassination. Who might be next?

Then there are those people concerned about the unfortunate death of Alan Yu, Yu Menglong, the popular actor who fell from a window last month, shortly after telling his many followers that if he were to die then it would not be an accident. Some stories circulating connect him with very senior party officials and to many companies which might have been used as conduits to divert billions of dollars out of the country. Yes, billions. Maybe some of the billions held by Yang Lanlan, the young woman in Australia of uncertain parentage who crashed her Rolls-Royce in Sydney last month.

I hope I'm still around to read the book. It might take a while to be written.

Originally Posted by Shutree

Xi, meanwhile, might or might not have had another stroke and be lying in a hospital bed somewhere.

Well, he's supposed to have met several foreign leaders today, including the Sri Lankan PM, the Ghanaian president, the president of Iceland and the president of the Commonwealth of Dominica.

Here's a photo of him with Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama, who is in Beijing for the Global Leaders' Meeting on Women.



Reuters also have an article apparently confirming a meeting today between Xi and the Icelandic president.

reuters.com

Originally Posted by Neverna

Well, he's supposed to have met several foreign leaders today, including the Sri Lankan PM, the Ghanaian president, the president of Iceland and the president of the Commonwealth of Dominica.

Yep, he's popped up again after no sightings for about ten days. It makes the rumours of a stroke look invented.

It looks like Xi made it through the plenum. Lots of generals have been purged and there were other, unexplained empty seats at the plenum. Interesting times.

Originally Posted by Shutree

It looks like Xi made it through the plenum. Lots of generals have been purged and there were other, unexplained empty seats at the plenum. Interesting times.

Last minute Chinese take awayd

Just a moment...

The removal of Zhang Youxia might not be played through yet. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, it seems to have had at least one unintended consequence. It was only a few weeks back that Zhang was visiting Putin in Moscow and it seems like Zhang might have been the principle point of contact in China for the Russian military. Huge amounts of military and dual use technology were being driven over the land border from China to Russia. With Zhang's removal, people aren't sure what they can safely do without being seen as Zhang's ally. So they are doing nothing. As a result of which, a lot of shipments for the Russian military are stuck at the border.
(According to the usual unreliable sources.)

Everyone’s Saying It: This New Year, There’s No Money and Fewer People”

As the Lunar New Year approaches, people across China — rural and urban, northerners and southerners; residents of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou; young and old, men and women — have been posting videos and photos online asking the same question: It’s already the twelfth lunar month, New Year is almost here. Why does everything feel so deserted? Where are the crowds? Does this even feel like the holidays?


One widely shared video features a blogger interviewing elderly villagers, editing their remarks into a montage, one sentence per person. Here’s what they said:


“Under Communist Party rule, I’ve been a farmer since my teens. I worked my whole life — from having nothing, to still having nothing, to ending up in debt.”


“We suffered so many losses without understanding why. Careful planning only led to a ditch full of debts.”
“We’ve lived meekly for decades. The only things that grow each year are the harvest and our blood pressure. Our poverty, though — that’s been very stable.”

Another villager said:


“They keep shouting about ‘building a new countryside.’ Building what? There’s nobody left! Our village used to have 300 households — now you don’t see a single person on the main road.”

Residents in many regions say this year’s holiday season shows several stark differences compared to previous years:


Noticeably fewer people have returned home


Migrant workers didn’t earn much money, and many families are financially strained


Overall consumer spending power has dropped sharply


On social media, numerous similar videos show sparsely populated northern villages that resemble ghost towns.


Yet official propaganda continues to promote a narrative of “bright prospects,” rolling out policies to stimulate consumption and constantly repeating that “tomorrow will be better.”


One young netizen, speaking calmly to the camera, said:


“They talk about economic prosperity but not the hardships of ordinary people.
They talk about weak consumption but not crushing personal debt.
They talk about average savings but not the wealth gap.
That’s just dodging the real issues. That’s just playing dirty.”


He added: “Before dawn, trash cans get rummaged through eight times, yet they still say the average savings per person is 118,900 yuan. Average for who? How much do I get? Where do I collect it? By the time I get there, the trash cans are already picked clean.”

What About Beijing?


If rural areas are this bleak, what about Beijing — the political heart of China?


One Beijing netizen said:


“Four types of people in Beijing are close to tears this year.
First, ride-hailing drivers — everyone’s driving now, and there’s no money to be made.
Second, legal wives — even children born to mistresses can now get household registration and inheritance rights.
Third, teachers — birth rates are falling so fast even iron rice bowls aren’t secure anymore.
Fourth, finance workers — once the industry goes online, it becomes a price war. Are you one of these four?”


Another said:


“They say Beijing has over 20 million people, but why do the streets feel so empty? At rush hour near Guomao, you used to be carried by the crowd. Now you could jog. Even the elderly strolling in the hutongs seem fewer. Where did everyone go? Relocated to Tongzhou and Xiong’an? Trapped in office buildings and Universal Studios? The street vibe doesn’t match the statistics.”


Many Beijing residents say life pressure is growing heavier. Forget celebrating New Year — some struggle just to survive.


Beijing also has something unique, they say: an atmosphere of fear. Security checks are everywhere. IDs, bags, phones are repeatedly inspected. Drones are strictly controlled.


One netizen joked darkly:


“Are they afraid drones might film ‘empty streets everywhere’ and leak the state secret that China’s population has dropped by 400–500 million?”


Another claimed:


“In the past five years, Beijing’s population aged 25 to 40 has dropped by about 1.85 million — that’s like losing a mid-sized city.”


Markets Empty, Shops Closed

Netizens from various cities filmed empty markets and streets filled with “For Rent” signs.


One person said while filming:


“It’s over. Not a single shop left. Total wipeout. Follow my camera — only a few are still holding on. Before, shops here were impossible to get; people pulled strings to secure a spot. Now almost all are closed. It’s bleak.”


A 30-year-old man said anxiously:


“Can anyone give me some advice? I’m really lost. Delivery orders are scarce during the day, and selling sausages at night barely covers living costs. I’m 30 — no car, no house, no savings, still over 100,000 yuan in debt. I haven’t achieved even one of life’s ‘three essentials.’ What’s the point of living like this?”


A woman complained:


“All they do is brag — surpass Apple, surpass Tesla. What’s the use? Why don’t wages surpass? Why don’t benefits surpass? Why don’t layoff compensations surpass? ‘Winning big’ — what’s the use?!”


Another said angrily:


“They even mass-produce mental illness labels. If you dare speak out, they can lock you up and silence you. The scariest thing isn’t madmen — it’s those who label normal people as crazy.”


One netizen wrote:


“I’m saying something nobody likes to hear, including myself: We’re poor and struggling not because of others, but because we’re cowards.”


Unpaid Workers and Despair


Many migrant workers still haven’t received back wages. Unable to go home for the holidays, they remain in cities. By day, they go back to factories to demand pay; authorities ignore them, sometimes sending police to disperse or beat them. At night, they go to sleep hungry under bridges.


Some say these hardships have led people to conclude that the Communist Party is the root cause of the suffering. Some have used tools to bypass internet controls and posted statements overseas renouncing membership in Party-affiliated organizations.


Several individuals posting such renunciations said they had lost faith in the system after repeated injustices, corruption, and repression.△


People News

^^^

who do you believe………. I know who I believe.

You really will have to say.

It isn't the easy choice it used to be.

The ones with their arse hanging out of their pants.

Originally Posted by misskit

Why does everything feel so deserted? Where are the crowds?

I have seen a lot of Chinese videos that look genuine showing quiet streets and deserted malls. But I spoke to Miss Shanghai today and she tells me everything is normal. So I don't know.

Originally Posted by misskit

“They keep shouting about ‘building a new countryside.’ Building what? There’s nobody left! Our village used to have 300 households — now you don’t see a single person on the main road.”

If you travel around western Europe - France Spain, Italy, Portugal, for example - you'll see many empty rural villages. China is just catching up.

Of course there is still a lot of infrastructure being built. Things like roads, railways, dams. These things all add to GDP, which seems to be a lead indicator for the CCP. In fact they don't make much economic sense and this is one rreason why the economy is in trouble. If all the debt held by the corporations that local gvernments set up because the local governments cannot borrow directly from banks is rolled up then the total debt for which the government is ultimately responsible amounts to about 300% of GDP. There seems no way out, many people put their money into property that was never built. They have debts carrying interest not supported by any useful assets, so of course consumers are not spending and domestic consumption doesn't look like it is going to help the economy out of a hole.

One thing is interesting though. There are plenty of videos showing China's ghost cities, mostly unfinished buildings. The sources claim that China now has 90 million empty homes. It sounds a staggering number. But my friend Google tells me that the USA has 15 million empty homes. Per head of population the ratios are similar. I'm not sure what that tells us. The UK has about 1 million empty homes.

Many seems to have enough to invest money with fellow nationals phoning them from Myanmar.

Not a whisper, actual fact for anyone who is interested.
On February 15th China announced that UK and Canadian citizens will be able to visit China without a visa, starting February 17th. A visa waiver will give 30 days. This policy will apply until December 31st, 2026.
No mention of requirements for prebooked hotels or confirmed departure bookings.

Notice on China’s Visa Waiver Policy for the UK and Canada

Two observations.

1. China is struggling with population ageing and decline.

2. Will Xi push the button to take Taiwan before he is "replaced" in 27'

Originally Posted by NamPikToot

1. China is struggling with population ageing and decline.

We don't really know the actual population but certainly the birth rate is nowhere near replacement, so yes the population is aging and no the economy is not strong enough to meet pension obligations.

The evidence of real decline possibly lies in the youth unemployment rate. There just seem to be way too few jobs. The economy is really struggling.

Originally Posted by NamPikToot

Will Xi push the button to take Taiwan before he is "replaced" in 27'

A struggling economy raises the CCP's greatest fear: social unrest. A typical answer to domestic problems is to create an overseas distraction. Taiwan looks like an obvious choice, Xi has always wanted that to be his legacy. Removing Zhang Youxia feels like one of the roadblocks has been removed. It could get messy. Unless Xi gets "replaced' in the near future.

^ It been an issue for a while but there is a significant imbalance in the sexes brought about by the one child policy. I saw a documentary some time back about men moving to cities fir employment but they are relationship deserts, something like 120 men for every 100 women so you have large numbers of men facing the possibility of never getting a girlfriend or married.

Oh, they just import a few from Cambodia

Originally Posted by NamPikToot

^ It been an issue for a while but there is a significant imbalance in the sexes brought about by the one child policy. I saw a documentary some time back about men moving to cities fir employment but they are relationship deserts, something like 120 men for every 100 women so you have large numbers of men facing the possibility of never getting a girlfriend or married.

Too big a question for a short reply. Certainly there are many men posting videos saying they accept that they'll never marry, mostly because they cannot afford to pay the bride-to-be's family.
At the same time, there are videos of matchmaking events that many women pay to join and then zero men turn up.
So it is not just a mismatch of numbers, although that one-child policy screwed society for a generation, it is also a matter of women making unreasonable demands and men losing interest.
All these young pretties will age and pass their sell-by dates. I wonder what it will look like 20 years from now.

On the other hand, there are what I call Type A women who cannot find partners. Women with apartments and cars and good jobs who scare the hell out of Chinese men. In the days when I used to spend most weekends in Shenzhen with Miss Chongqing we'd often go out with some of her friends, occasionally with a foreign bloke or two present. The women were mature, say 35-ish, too old for the market. Most were attractive, had their own BMWs, flats, and designer handbags, well educated, cultured and fun to be with. I remember asking one what she did, her only job was managing her investments. Her family had owned some rice fields that are now downtown Shenzhen. If I were 20 years younger I know where I'd be spending my time.

Originally Posted by Shutree

I remember asking one what she did, her only job was managing her investments. Her family had owned some rice fields that are now downtown Shenzhen.

So that's why you crafty fookers are moving to the likes of rural Buriram and buying up the rais!

Originally Posted by Salsa dancer

Oh, they just import a few from Cambodia

or liberate them from Taiwan, repatriate as Xi would have it

Africa has an ebola problem, an infection with a 50% death rate and no vaccine.

There are a lot of mines across the infected region, unfortunately involving many Chinese. As the ebola ramps up, plenty of those Chinese expats have decamped and run for home. Rumour has it that some passengers on China-bound flights were showing visible symptoms.

There won't be much news coming out of China, so we have nothing to worry about. Possibly.

^ At least China has no history of covering up the origins of pandemics.

When I used to work a lot in West Africa around a decade ago, I reckon that flights to/from the region were at least 30% Chinese. They play it slow but will take over eventually.

If they did then it would all be a right bat soup.