Australia must prepare for “devastating” climate-fuelled disruption in the Asia Pacific, including failed states, forced migration and regional conflicts over water shortages, a stark briefing for federal politicians warns.

The Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration thinktank has summarised the potential threats and impacts of the climate crisis in a note targeted at MPs.

Breakthrough is seeking to galvanise political debate on the scale of the challenges posed, as the findings of a recent threat assessment by Australia’s Office of National Intelligence (ONI) remain classified.

In a paper to be released on Thursday, the thinktank says the ONI report is “likely to have said that the world is dangerously off track to meet the Paris Agreement goals, the risks are compounding and the impacts will be devastating in the coming decades”.

“In the Asia-Pacific region, states will fail and climate impacts will drive political instability, greater national insecurity and forced migration, and fuel conflict,” the paper says.

“There will likely be a further retreat to authoritarian and hyper-nationalist politics, the diminution of instruments of regional cooperation, and increased risks of regional conflict, including over shared water resources from the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, encompassing India, Pakistan, China and south-east Asian nations.”

Prepared by Breakthrough research director David Spratt, the note acknowledges projections are difficult to make because the physical impacts of climate change and the system-level changes “compound and cascade” in a nonlinear way.

“What we do know is that there will be outcomes that virtually no one will see coming, such as happened when drought and desertification in eastern Syria compounded with the dynamics of the Arab Spring to unleash the Syrian war.”

Spratt’s paper said while the consequences remained uncertain, it was possible to prepare “a sketch of some plausible outcomes before mid-century in the Asia-Pacific”.

They may include severe economic jolts caused by conflict and labour displacement, as well as the “inundation and destruction of economic infrastructure, and disruption to supply chains, including in the South China Sea”.

The paper suggested “a worsening of extreme and concurrent climate events with impacts beyond the response capacity of national governments”, which could result in China taking on a bigger role in responding to events in vulnerable states, “especially as Australia’s disaster relief capacity is underfunded and overwhelmed”.

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Electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular among Australians, with sales during the first half of 2023 already eclipsing last year’s annual total, though the industry has warned a federal policy vacuum continues to harm consumer choice.

The Electric Vehicle Council has also singled out the Victorian government as having “the world’s worst” approach to taxing EV ownership in its report on the state of the industry to be released on Monday.

From January to June this year, 8.4% of new car sales in Australia were electric. In 2022, just 3.8% of new vehicle sales were electric.

The 46,624 EVs sold in the first six months of the year take the number of EVs on Australian roads to roughly 130,000 – made up of about 109,000 battery powered cars and 21,000 hybrids – according to estimates from the Electric Vehicle Council.

However, uptake has varied considerably between regions. EV sales have been strongest in the Australian Capital Territory, where 21.8% of new cars sold so far this year were electric, followed by 9% in New South Wales and Tasmania, 8.5% in Victoria, 7.7% in Queensland, 7.5% in Western Australia, 6.5% in South Australia and 2.4% in the Northern Territory.

Market share is also heavily limited. Just three vehicles – Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3, and the BYD Atto 3 – account for more than 68% of the market in Australia. While there are 91 different electric cars, vans and utes on the market in Australia, most have very limited supply.

Every new electric car often sells out within hours of coming on to the market, Behyad Jafari, the Electric Vehicle Council’s chief executive, said.

He estimated demand for EVs was double the actual sales figures, but consumers frequently placed orders that went unfulfilled and ultimately opted for a standard car instead due to the wait.

Jafari said the lack of supply of EVs was a direct result of Australia’s lack of a new fuel-efficiency standard.

Fuel-efficiency standards set by governments limit emissions from cars by creating a cap of carbon emissions across a manufacturer’s overall sales. This provides an incentive for manufacturers to supply low and zero-emissions vehicles and penalises companies that fail to do so.

The Albanese government has promised, but not yet introduced, a fuel efficiency standard.

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  • Zali Steggall calls on government to respond to escalating climate threat


31 July 2023

I have written to the government, together with other members of the crossbench, Zoe Daniel, Allegra Spender, Kylea Tink, Helen Haines, Kate Chaney, David Pocock, Sophie Scamps, Monique Ryan and Andrew Wilke to call on the government to respond to the escalating climate threat.

Dear Prime Minister and Minister Bowen

We, the undersigned, are writing in response to the increasingly dire news globally on climate change. On Friday morning, the Secretary General of the United Nations warned that we have progressed beyond global warming and are now in a period of global boiling. He warned of unbreathable air and unbearable temperatures to come.

We call on the government to:


  1. Respond publicly to the global evidence of increasing warming;
  2. Urgently update policy settings to reflect the reality that we must do everything possible to end Australia’s contribution to global boiling;
  3. Cease approving new fossil fuel projects; and
  4. Develop a national adaptation plan to build resilience against the climate impacts already being felt and their increasing intensity and frequency


Full letter:
https://assets.nationbuilder.com/bra...pdf?1690764762


https://www.zalisteggall.com.au/zali...climate_threat

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  • Australia, UK Jointly Fund Renewable Hydrogen Initiative


The Australian and United Kingdom (UK) governments have announced a joint funding call to accelerate green hydrogen projects.

Australian Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen and UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Grant Shapps announced a new joint initiative at a Green Hydrogen Roundtable during the 14th Clean Energy Ministerial and 8th Mission Innovation Meeting in Goa, India.

Both countries will provide funding for Australian and British companies to work together on research, development or demonstration projects on renewable hydrogen.

The new arrangement is part of a broader push by the Australian Government to work with like-minded countries to build supply chains, enhance investment and shape global markets for clean energy technologies.

The agreement will build on a clean energy partnership between Australia and the UK developed in 2021. It will focus on renewable hydrogen and its applications to decarbonise industry and transport. International collaboration is essential in helping to achieve our hydrogen ambitions with the required urgency and deliver a net zero transition for both economies.

The program will be launched in October 2023.

https://www.miragenews.com/australia...rogen-1056750/

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  • Unesco recommends against Great Barrier Reef ‘in danger’ listing but Australia warned more action needed


UN scientific advisors have recommended the Great Barrier Reef not be placed on a list of world heritage sites “in danger” but stressed the planet’s biggest coral reef system remains under “serious threat” from global heating and water pollution.

Unesco said in a report that the Australian government had taken positive steps to protect the reef since a UN monitoring mission visited Queensland in March last year.

But Unesco has in effect put Australia on notice, as it recommended the government provide a progress report in February before the reef is considered for inscription on the “in danger” list again in 2024.

The government said the report was confirmation it was acting on climate change and “working hard to protect the reef, and that the rest of the world has taken notice”.

The report’s recommendations – including a set of “draft decisions” – will be considered at the 21-country world heritage committee’s September meeting in Saudi Arabia, which currently chairs the committee.

Last year’s UN mission report listed several steps the federal and state governments should make to protect the reef, including accelerating improvements to water quality, a faster rollout out to the state’s sustainable fishing strategy and the removal of gillnets from the park.

That report also said the government should have “clear commitments” to cut greenhouse gas emissions “consistent with the efforts required to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.”

Since the UN mission in March, the report said the Albanese government had legislated an improved target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 and to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Experts have said Australia’s latest 2030 target is not consistent with a global goal of keeping global heating to 1.5C.

Despite saying the efforts by the state and federal government should be “noted with appreciation”, the report also says the reef “remains under serious threat and urgent and sustained action” was needed “to improve the long-term resilience of the [reef].”

The Unesco report, which includes input from the International Union for Conservation of Nature, was positive about commitments from Australia to spend $1.2bn to reduce nutrients and fertilisers running into the reef’s waters.

But a “drastic shift” was needed to reach water quality targets for fine sediment and dissolved nitrogen. On water quality “progress remains slow”, the report said.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...esco-australia

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  • Senator Nita Green - This decision is welcome news for the regional communities in QLD where the Reef supports local jobs and economies.


Our Govt knows there’s still work to be done. We will continue to fight to protect the Reef for generations to come. https://twitter.com/nitagreenqld/sta...09843055337475


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  • Experts demand new reef plan with rising climate threat


Australia's plan to protect the Great Barrier Reef won't cut it in the era of climate change and another approach is urgently needed, an expert panel says.

Independent scientists who advise the federal and Queensland governments on the existing Reef 2050 Plan say a radical shift is needed to help the World Heritage site.

"Management of the (reef) will need to change; it cannot be business as usual; it cannot be the priorities and investments outlined today; it cannot be spending money because that is where it is spent today," the governments were told.

Panel chair and former Australian chief scientist Ian Chubb said existing approaches weren't flexible enough to cope with the pace of global warming and he warned of difficult choices ahead.

"Decision-making for conservation and sustainable use of the (reef) will need to be more selective and questions need to be asked, such as which region/s should be the focus of attention - which reefs, which corals, which species, which ecosystems?'' Prof Chubb wrote.

The Australian Academy of Science expressed similar concerns in a report published on Thursday.

It said potentially irreversible climate impacts were likely for the reef by about 2050, even if emissions stabilised.

"Currently, policy is taking time to catch up," the academy said after being asked by the government to provide advice to the panel.

"The speed of intervention will likely increase and regulators need to be able to keep pace."

The academy also noted "a lack of political will to implement the regulations and laws allows upstream activities that are in opposition to the intent of existing laws, ultimately negatively impacting the (reef)".

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...limate-threat/