Chinese Whispers

[Shutree]

The official media in China mostly fail to report accurately or at all on some of the biggest issues in the world's second largest economy. What happens in China affects other economies globally, not only the 'butterfly effect', you can see it directly for example in the current US-China trade talks.

Probably the biggest question at the moment is: Who is in charge?

Every month, China's 24 person politburo has a meeting and that is almost always reported in state media. In May, there were no reports and there is no evidence that a meeting happened, which is extremely unusual. What seems to have happened is that on or about May 15th there was a meeting of the politburo standing committee, a small group of about 7 of the most senior figures. Rumour has it that the standing committee invited some extra attendees including Hu Jintao, who most people remember being dragged offstage behind Xi at the 20th National Congress in 2022. Hu has been out of the public eye since then. So what was going on? Some sources have described it as a 'struggle meeting' where Xi Jinping was challenged over his leadership, particularly over the economy and international relations.

A few days later, Xi went on an inspection tour in Henan, This was mostly notable for who was not there, Cai Qi, the man who is effectively Xi's chief of staff and who always goes everywhere with him. After Henan, Xi was not seen for a couple of weeks, which is exceptional. People noted that China Daily cut their usual Xi thought bulletins.

Xi was invisible until he popped up to meet Lukashenko. Most unusually their meeting was in the Zhongnanhai compound where the most senior leaders live. Pictures showed a significant number of young men in dark suits about the place, leading to speculation that Xi was under house arrest.

Meanwhile, there have been a few unexplained arrests and at least one surprise death, all suggesting that the leadership situation is in flux.

The man tipped as future leader is Wang Yang. He was in the top levels of government until he officially retired. He is described as 'liberal' within the context of Chinese government, so his appointment would signal a huge change. However, Wang isn't leaping at the opportunity and is said to have a number of preconditions.

How long this will take to play out is anybody's guess. My guess is that it will be sooner rather than later. China wants these trade talks to move forward.

[39TG]

The bash China youtube channels have been pondering what's happening to Xi. Some reports have been celebrating his demise.

[Shutree]

The bash China youtube channels have been pondering what's happening to Xi. Some reports have been celebrating his demise.

YT is awash with speculation. Most of it traces back to just a couple of sources, whose stories have been repeated, sometimes embellished to create a giant echo chamber. The few pieces of the puzzle we can see suggest something is happening and it will be significant. There are so many personal interests that will be affected that a peaceful transition is probably the best we can hope for.

[harrybarracuda]

Didn't he have a chat with the orange turd only last week?

[Shutree]

Didn't he have a chat with the orange turd only last week?

Phone calls with various leaders, yes. Could be from any room anywhere and we don't now now who is there offering guidance. It is his lack of visibility that is interesting.

[Shutree]

Li Keqiang died at Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to the Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Pudong at 00:10 CST on 27 October 2023 at the age of 68 after a heart attack the previous day. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that the heart attack occurred as he swam at Shanghai's Dongjiao State Guest Hotel. The Standard reported that long-term use of anti-rejection drugs following a liver transplant were a contributing factor. SCMP reported that he had also undergone coronary artery bypass surgery. (Wiki)

At that time, some people pointed out that Li wasn't generally known to have had a history of heart illness. They questioned why he was taken to a second tier Chinese hospital in a city which has top surgeons elsewhere. His wife requested a full autopsy, but he was quickly cremated without one.

Two years on, a whistleblower has claimed that he was part of an elite, government run, six-person hit squad that had assassinated Li. He claimed this was done by spiking Li's water with an odourless, colourless poison that creates symptoms similar to a heart attack. He named names, identifying each of the six team members, himself included.

李克强被谋杀细节遭曝光 凶手呼之欲出？

Why now?

This looks like an attack on Xi. It seems like someone isn't willing to let him transition quietly out of power.