Perhaps most important of all, if the Brexiteers win, an exit from the EU is actually not deliverable. The EU referendum is merely advisory; it has no legal standing to force an exit. Parliament is still sovereign. We will need an Act of Parliament to revoke the European Communities Act 1972, by which Britain joined the EEC or Common Market, or perhaps a paving bill enabling the Government to start the Leave negotiations. But whatever, a vote will be required.
The Government, whether still led by David Cameron or not, would probably not win the vote in the House of Commons. Labour could claim the referendum was too close and did not include a majority to leave in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Therefore the Labour Party, the SNP and the few Lib Dems would claim to have the mandate to vote against the bill.
It would then only take a few fiercely europhile Tories to consult their constituents and their consciences, and decide that after all their campaigning to stay in the EU they cannot vote to leave either. Can one imagine Ken Clarke voting to leave even on a three-line whip?
Reports this week suggested pro-EU MPs are already plotting to keep Britain in the EU whatever the result: on the basis that Vote Leave has not spelt out an alternative deal for Britain’s access to the single market, they will claim there is no mandate for change.