Syria and world await Putin's reaction to apparent bombing of Russian jet

...If the Metrojet crash is indeed shown to be the work of terrorists, then it will pose a new dilemma for Putin. Does he double down on the Syria operations, or instead make a push for the negotiating table holding the hand he currently has?

Washington believes Putin has already bitten off more than he can chew in Syria, and the US government has opted for a “watch them fail” policy, in the hope it will bring about Moscow’s acceptance that Bashar al-Assad must step down as part of any political transition, a senior US official told the Guardian.

“This is the first time they have actually done active combat air support to ground operations, and they overestimated how effective those air operations can be,” the official said. “If you don’t train together, it’s really complex to coordinate air and ground operations. That’s why we think they made a strategic error. They overestimated the capabilities of the Syrian military and they underestimated what an unbelievable mess Syria is.”

In Moscow, some believe Putin’s initial move was largely borne of opportunism, with the Russian leader noting the ineffectiveness of western policy in Syria and seeing a chance to change the discussion and make Russia’s voice heard, as well as distract attention from events in Ukraine.

“Putin is certainly not a strategist, he is a tactician, and the whole history of his rule has shown this. His goals have changed all the time,” said Mikhail Zygar, editor-in-chief of independent Russian TV station Rain, who has just released a book on Putin and his inner circle.

However, a number of sources in Moscow say Putin’s stated aim, of defeating Islamic State terrorists, should not be ignored, and is likely to be the primary motivation for the intervention, even if the majority of airstrikes have been against non-Isis targets.

“I think the main reason is a real worry about the potential for Isis to pose a threat to Russia in the near future,” said one political insider who knows Putin personally, speaking prior to the Metrojet crash. “We are a lot closer to the region than America is, and we are not as good at defending our borders. Of course, it’s about lots of other things too, including the need to move on the conversation from Ukraine, but I firmly believe this is the main reason.”
Syria and world await Putin's reaction to apparent bombing of Russian jet