
Originally Posted by
piwanoi

Originally Posted by
ltnt
Recent weeks report that the Rubber Farmers are in revolt over the possibility that the new military government is going to sell off all the surplus government warehouse rubber stocks at firesale prices. That ought to kill the industry for a few years here no doubt?
On my way back from Kap Choeng Immigration to do my 90 day report last week over the 90 minutes or so it took me to drive home I saw tens of thousands of rai of immature rubber trees , it begs the question if there is a world wide glut of rubber right now ,WTF is going to happen in 3/4years when they come on stream ? ,subsidies in the end always fail cos you just cannot buck World wide prices at the cost to the tax payer

200,000 tonnes, Thailand produces about 4 mil tonnes a year, not going to kill the market or years.
No glut of rubber, cheap oil is the problem, synthetic rubber accounts for 56% of world rubber use and it's oil based. Oil goes up, rubber becomes more attractive, price wise.
World economy has been bumping along the ground for 6 years, sooner or later a new boom time will come, just the nature of our system, boom and bust.
When the next cycle begins, anyone's guess, if you can ride out the bad times, you'll be OK, if not you go broke.
Tomorrow the US dollars, goes up I get more Baht, goes down I get less, oil fields in the Mid east go up in flames, oil goes up, I get more for my rubber.
I'll have another beer and see, worrying or predicting is non productive. Jim