Thread: Rubber trees 101

Originally Posted by jamescollister

On a brighter note, for me, not good to very bad for others, army seems to have put a stop to the illegal logging.
They have been high profile, raiding suspect homes, confiscatig cars, cash and siezing bank accounts.
Even fining people for entering the national park with out reasonable cause.
Last week they brought 4 bodies to the village Wat, Cambodians I'm told, some of the usual supect have run.

Like good Thais, they spent big, cars, new homes, gold, big TVs, now the money has stopped, but payments still need to be made.
There are lines of people selling gold back to the shops, couple of days ago, guy tried to sell me a fairly new honda wave.
Locals had let their rice go, no need to plant, why work when you can earn 10,000 a day logging.

When the golds gone and they have sold what they can, I just, maybe will be able to get some workers.
Jim

hmmm interesting Jim...wife tells me cup at 20bt now..!!!
Okay maybe will come back some time but not holding my breath...if not back in say 3 years will cut the lot sell the wood and plant bananas,cashew,coconut or something...maybe even dig a frickin big lake and raise fish and hire an armed guard...5555.
We have our neibouring rubber farmer/owner family cutting for us but so much rain ..zip income..sort of feel sorry for them as nice honest hardworking family....ah well still have a few bob for food ,diesel and beer...better than a bedsit and two bar electric fire in ...?

I can't figure out why the price is so low, reasons given by market annalists, over supply and lack of demand, but is that true.
China best numbers for 18 months, world tire needs up, Indian tire producers threatening to move off, lack of rubber.

The estimated 250,000 tonnes of over supply, how can that be, can't get tappers country wide, better paying jobs elsewhere, Malaysia worse, heard of tappers there getting 80%. No one is fertilizing properly [cost] another drop in out put.

These prices are not sustainable, farmers will more to other crops, small Thai badly grown and maintained plantations do not produce enough rubber to make the effort worth bothering to tap.

Sooner or later prices will have to rise or no one will be doing rubber, supply and demand. Jim

May be even worse in 3-4 years time Jim, so much new rubber ready then, at least 2-3 million new rai in SE Asia and Africa.
Mike.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

May be even worse in 3-4 years time Jim, so much new rubber ready then, at least 2-3 million new rai in SE Asia and Africa.
Mike.

You could well be right , from what I have here locally alone there Thousands of rai planted with 2/3 year old tree's ,when they come on stream this will only add to the glut they have already ,of course I confess I know very little about rubber farming ,but I comprehend what supply and demand means all too well.

Originally Posted by thaiguzzi

May be even worse in 3-4 years time Jim, so much new rubber ready then, at least 2-3 million new rai in SE Asia and Africa.
Mike.

If it's not profitable, they'll rip it out and plant something else, believe Vietnam is all ready doing so.

New clones of palm oil are out, less water, faster growing and more oil, same with cassava, cashews etc.

Oil price is the driving factor, 54% of rubber is artificial, oil is cheap, should be more expensive, M/E is in a mess, oil production is under threat, yet no price rise.

I'll hang on for this season, planted 7 rai of cassava to try, if things don't improve next year, will start chopping the worst plantation. Plant cashews and cassava in between.
I won't be the only one. Jim

The only positive up here in Isaan with the newer plantations is, i know most will have been well under fertilised with poor incorrect product, poorly looked after land ie ploughed/chemicaled, will be opened at 5 - 5.5 years old and poorly tapped, or tapped to death. Hence low output.

Sometimes shake my head in disbelief, wife {Uni grad } come back from town with a bottle, about 90 grams of super rubber tree powder. Mix it with 20 liters of water and spray on, rubber will pour out, so the man said, 1,500 Baht.

Last year FIL, 40 bags of special fertilizer, he's smart, saved me a load of money, only 400 Baht a bag. Except it wasn't fertilizer, but compost, drive by salesman said it's the best thing for rubber ever.

Sometimes feel like crawling into a bottle of cheap whiskey. Jim

Essentially, when subsidies wither on the vine, excuse the pun, and economics are allowed to intrude then all this subsistence farming, share-cropping and penny ante stuff will be absorbed into agri-industrial businesses whose economy of scale will allow for proper product management and supply.

It's the future but I shouldn't think it will happen any time soon Jim, so I reckon you're safe for now. Well, as much as anyone can be here in this Alice in Wonderland country.

As those near you have so vividly demonstrated, Thai believe what they want to believe. China is going to swallow them up once Laos has been annexed in all but name.

Originally Posted by thegent

Essentially, when subsidies wither on the vine, excuse the pun, and economics are allowed to intrude then all this subsistence farming, share-cropping and penny ante stuff will be absorbed into agri-industrial businesses whose economy of scale will allow for proper product management and supply.

It's the future but I shouldn't think it will happen any time soon Jim, so I reckon you're safe for now. Well, as much as anyone can be here in this Alice in Wonderland country.

As those near you have so vividly demonstrated, Thai believe what they want to believe. China is going to swallow them up once Laos has been annexed in all but name.

Think big business farming will be here faster then most believe, issuing charnotes on what was crown land, so the peons can borrow on, or sell the land.
What took 200 year in Europe, will be 20 years here, villages will be left with just the old, everyone else will be factory fodder.

If the price is right, I'd sell, if I had the money I would buy, no land bubble, China will take all Thailand can produce, big hungry world out there.

Rubber is a bit different, it's a labor thing, you can mechanize, rice, palm etc, but as of yet no viable alternative to hand tapping rubber. Hard to run on a wage structure.

On this alleged subsidies, I worked it out on the numbers published, works out, it comes to about what was taken by the 5 Baht export levy. They could have just scrapped the tax, but cash wins hearts and minds, take with one hand and give with the other.

Still pissing rain here, so price means little if no rubber. Jim

Labour will come from necessity and India/Bangladesh if the Burmese, Cambos aren't interested.

Those plantations will do ok.

Factory fodder as an alternative is really Hobson's choice for the indigent young but the good side is that the cities will develop, dynamics will come into play, political parties will develop and industrialisation will force them into the 21 st century.

It's life.

yeah, but i don't like the 21st century.

Originally Posted by thegent

Labour will come from necessity and India/Bangladesh if the Burmese, Cambos aren't interested.

Those plantations will do ok.

Factory fodder as an alternative is really Hobson's choice for the indigent young but the good side is that the cities will develop, dynamics will come into play, political parties will develop and industrialisation will force them into the 21 st century.

It's life.

The labor thing will work in Burma and Cambodia, not sure about in Thailand.
labor laws for foreign workers are fairly strong, wages, taxes medical etc must be paid, to be legal.

Goodyear had large plantations in Africa, US sets standards for fair wages and conditions, for companies operating in 3 rd world countries.
They couldn't make it pay, they got round the problem though, gave the plantations away to local big shots, contract for supply signed, prices set.

New owners, not bound by US laws, paid workers in plastic tokens, usable only in the company store. Modern day slavery, don't think you could get away with that here.

Know Thai planters in the south, who use illegal Cambodians, but they would rather use Thais, can't get them. Jim

Jim:Hey I am no genius but your thoughts re farmland/farming make a lot of sense...to my mind one should hang on to land ( they ain't making any more and all that).
Sure rubber is the toilet but if you have arable land you/we can grow food and trade for a pork steak or two...Bananas ..easy to grow and fetch more currently than latex/kilo same same many veggies/fruits. Hopefully down the road our investment in rubber will pay dividends but maybe it is a good time to fill a few rice bags with dirt and start another cash crop.
SIL is growing and selling mushrooms ..making 1200bt a day (she says)..friend's wife cooking up food and selling in market ,outlay 1500 bt food and recouping 3500/day minus 6k/mth food court rent..total 5hrs work/evening/day....lots of ways to keep beer in the fridge methinks.

Originally Posted by crepitas

Jim:Hey I am no genius but your thoughts re farmland/farming make a lot of sense...to my mind one should hang on to land ( they ain't making any more and all that).
Sure rubber is the toilet but if you have arable land you/we can grow food and trade for a pork steak or two...Bananas ..easy to grow and fetch more currently than latex/kilo same same many veggies/fruits. Hopefully down the road our investment in rubber will pay dividends but maybe it is a good time to fill a few rice bags with dirt and start another cash crop.
SIL is growing and selling mushrooms ..making 1200bt a day (she says)..friend's wife cooking up food and selling in market ,outlay 1500 bt food and recouping 3500/day minus 6k/mth food court rent..total 5hrs work/evening/day....lots of ways to keep beer in the fridge methinks.

Wife has a cold coffee, tea and milk shake bar front of the house, no big earner, but covers diesel, kids schools are 27 km away.
As said, put in about 7 rai of cassava, will harvest, rubber tree dormant time, if I do most of the work myself, should pocket 60,000 plus Baht.

Can live very cheap if need be, but that's just living, wife, kids and I like a bit more, kids Ipads , weekends away etc.
We are big enough to get by, my real problem, is not prices, but labor, haven't the workers to get back on RSS.

Land is my kids future, will pay their way through school, be it rubber, palm, cashews or other. No regrets taking the chance here, better life than we had in OZ, but would not say no to a price increase. Jim

* To hike compensation for farmers who cut trees, switch to palm

* Global rubber prices down by more than 25 pct this yr

* Govt aims for more palm oil output to meet biofuel demand (Adds rubber prices, background)

By Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat

BANGKOK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Thailand's military government will encourage farmers in the world's biggest rubber producer and exporter to cut down more rubber trees in a bid to restrict supply to help shore up prices, a senior government official said on Tuesday.

Global rubber prices have tumbled more than 25 percent this year on persistent worries about demand from top consumer China and oversupply. Sellers in Thailand and other producers in Southeast Asia are complaining tyre grade prices are already below production cost.

The price of benchmark Thai smoked rubber sheet (RSS3) has dropped by a fifth this year to $2.00 per kg, down from $2.45-$2.50 a kg early this year.

"We aim to cut down 350,000 rubber trees a year, up from 250,000 trees we planned earlier," Dumrong Jirasutas, Director General, Department of Agriculture, told Reuters.

The government will increase the compensation to farmers who cut rubber trees to 21,000 baht per rai (0.16 hectare/0.4 acre) from 16,000 baht and switch to growing palm oil to meet rising demand for biofuel, he added.

"We plan to expand palm area by around 25 percent from the current 4 million rai (0.64 hectares)," Dumrong said.

Thailand has enforced the mandatory use of 7 percent palm oil-based biodiesel in diesel gasoline starting this year.

The government also plans to support the state-owned Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives in giving soft loans to rubber factories and local cooperatives, which will buy the commodity from farmers.

Thailand's current rubber plantation area stands at around 18 million rai. The area has been expanded substantially since 2004, with the government aiming to raise farmers' incomes by encouraging them to grow more rubber to meet increasing demand in the tyre industry. (Editing by Lewa Pardomuan and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

^I think its called "Fad Farming," in most countries...saw a huge plot last week being turned into what else...Dragon Fruit Farm.

Originally Posted by ltnt

^I think its called "Fad Farming," in most countries...saw a huge plot last week being turned into what else...Dragon Fruit Farm.

Not heard the term [Fad farming] if it means going for the latest, in thing, that's the Thai way.
Hope lot's go for it, chop there rubber trees down, grab their lumber and Gov. money, plant dragon fruit.
World will have plenty of fruit, but not enough rubber, can only hope. Jim

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by ltnt

^I think its called "Fad Farming," in most countries...saw a huge plot last week being turned into what else...Dragon Fruit Farm.

Not heard the term [Fad farming] if it means going for the latest, in thing, that's the Thai way.
Hope lot's go for it, chop there rubber trees down, grab their lumber and Gov. money, plant dragon fruit.
World will have plenty of fruit, but not enough rubber, can only hope. Jim

Just curious Jim, who do you deal with directly [selling/marketing] regarding your raw product??

Originally Posted by thaimeme

Originally Posted by jamescollister

Originally Posted by ltnt

^I think its called "Fad Farming," in most countries...saw a huge plot last week being turned into what else...Dragon Fruit Farm.

Not heard the term [Fad farming] if it means going for the latest, in thing, that's the Thai way.
Hope lot's go for it, chop there rubber trees down, grab their lumber and Gov. money, plant dragon fruit.
World will have plenty of fruit, but not enough rubber, can only hope. Jim

Just curious Jim, who do you deal with directly [selling/marketing] regarding your raw product??

That's a then and now question, don't have workers now, price so low we are just selling cup to the local buyers.

Back in the days when I thought I was on the road to riches, we produced very high grade RSS, sold the good stuff to a company that provided rubber for high grade seals, tires etc

Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately, depending how you look at life, GFC saw me with a shed full of 5 or 6 $ a kilo rubber, that suddenly was worth one $ a kilo.
Wiped me out, could start again, have Chinese, Malaysian etc wanting to buy, but you need the money up front, and it's a lot, $100,000 US say, don't have a 100,000 Baht.

Bank will loan money, but I'm hesitant, burnt one, twice shy, have kids to think about.
Rubber prices go up again, can trade our way up, if not I'll be a poor Issan farmer.
Have kept the company, small factory, licenses a live, always hope. Jim

29.00 baht per kg for cup this week @ auction, Udon province.

Right on. There is virtually no money in farming anywhere in the world. You can make a lot more money at nearly any other profession, doing 25% of the work that farming requires. 4 generations of my family never made money off relatively large agri businesses in Canada. Nearly all the 100's of relatives doing something other than farming ... are financially stable. The remaining farmers are not.

Originally Posted by cdnski12

4 generations of my family never made money off relatively large agri businesses in Canada

Do they still own the farms? They obviously have made enough to raise 4 generations.

Read someplace that some South American governments encouraged farmers to move to vanilla from curent crops..many did and the price of vanilla tanked.

What happens to the livelihood of thousands of active rubber cutters that do not own their own farms..one wonders if the government in Thailand thinks through it's knee jerk announcements/policies? So maybe I decide to cut down maybe 50 Rai odd of producing rubber for the their 21k/rai...when and how do I get the cash...still waiting for the fertiliser subsidy FFS.

Still wondering why there is no OPEC equivalent for rubber producing countries?

Gate price yesterday from local buyer 21bt/kilo cup...sigh!

Yes at 21k a rai I will chop all mine down and plant sugar, any body with any updates on this deal?