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  1. #476
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    This is one that will take all the froth out of the bubble....all the bubbles...
    the debt bubbles....hold on to your arse..

    Sept. 12, 2011, 11:10 a.m. EDT
    IIF warns G-20 about curbing commodity derivatives


    By Tom Barkley
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Institute of International Finance urged Group of 20 nations Monday not to impose regulatory constraints on trading in commodity market derivatives, warning they could hurt liquidity and distort markets.
    Pushing back against French President Nicolas Sarkozy's effort to tackle high commodity prices by clamping down on speculation during his leadership of the G-20, the global banking group issued a report finding no "clear causal link between financial investment and commodity prices."
    The IIF, composed of more than 400 financial institutions, instead backed other G-20 proposals such as improving commodity market transparency and boosting supply, saying market fundamentals are the main driver behind the recent surge in commodity prices to record highs.
    "While proposals to enhance the transparency of data provision to regulators on commodity prices and trading activity are broadly welcomed by private-sector market participants, the imposition of additional regulations such as position limits on trading activity could impair market liquidity and efficiency," the group said in the report.
    G-20 finance ministers plan to take up the issue of regulating commodity derivative markets later this month, but Brazil and some other countries are wary of imposing restrictions on trade. In the U.S., the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is expected to vote as early as this month on a proposal to impose position limits for energy, agriculture or metals derivatives.
    Noting the divergence of views, however, the IIF said "many observers believe that it will be difficult for ministers to reach an agreement on tougher regulation."
    Hung Tran, the IIF's deputy director of capital markets and emerging markets policy, said he hopes the G-20 will ensure it thoroughly analyzes the problem before considering new regulations.
    "The risk is very high that any remedies that leaders may come up with might not address the problem, and might even do harm to the smooth functioning of the markets," Tran told reporters at a briefing.

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    GFF
    0.668 0.655 07/09/11 700,000 458,500.000 -8,820.000 -1.890 10:06 am
    Last edited by baby maker; 13-09-2011 at 07:08 AM.
    i am just the nowhere man...
    living in the nowhere land...
    forever...

  2. #477
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    [quote=socal;1871968]
    Quote Originally Posted by baby maker View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    5. As explained in FOFOA's "Synthesis," the "hope" is that the architectural design of the Euro will allow the Euro's devaluation to be largely directed into gold (hence the 0% tax on gold within the zone)and thus avert a "massive hyperinflation", in contrast to the dollar's devaluation and hyperinflation against real goods.


    6. From Greece is the Word - "Freegold, then hyperinflation." The dollar will hyperinflate. The Euro will, as FOFOA wrote, **probably** not hyperinflate. If you have some humanity and understand what is coming, you , HOPE the Euro will not hyperinflate against the real world as the dollar will. But the Euro will devalue.

    How is it you don't understand...this is understood by all

    ....and why is it that you biligerently fail to move on to the next logical conclusion that precious metals are part of the same defunct system.

    You have spent hours cutting and pasteing information that is readily available to the world....information that was studied by some of us while you were still in highschool....

    it is to your credit that like all young men you wish to alert older members of this community to the coming future...with absolutely no thought to your own aclaim.

    Well done indeed.

    ....but can you move on from your "Chicken Little" cronicals and instead of pasteing what...to all is old news....come up with origional interlectual property that will guide the rest of us, who obviously, by your account are somewhat lacking in this gift.
    haha. Obviously you have seen and heard of none of this. None of it is mainstream information. You are just a typical baby boomer (like the rest of the bommers here)who fully expects this to be just another cycle within Bretton Woods 2. You are investing for this to be a cycle within Bretton Woods 2 (buying stocks) and you kick and scream at anything that suggests otherwise.

    Quote Originally Posted by socal
    " There is no other way to put this, all you central bankers are thick ! I am Baby Maker, I know better then all of you."
    Now that is blaitant perjoury and character assisation....read carefully the postings and you may begin to understand the drift of my contribution...not just to you....Socal...but to those you are trying to recrute to your delusion..to reaffirm that delusion to your own good self...

    1. There is no safe place.

    2. The monetary system is in grave danger...may even fail.

    3. Protect your family and yourself by investing wisely in defensive generational utilities...water, food, property.
    Bretton Woods 2 to the death eh ? You cant go without your "easy money" Bretton Woods 2.

    4. Socal...unlike you I do not know better than you or anyone...I've have survived trade for forty years...
    2011 minus forty = 1971

    When did Bretton Woods 2 start ????? ..... 1971.



    5. If you have bothered to think on what I have posted....even you may recognise words like...sober...caution...deversify...realignment.. .protect...

    advice given freely with no agender...other than to help.
    I am not giving advice. I am just presenting past history of the monetary order and how the authorities have prepared for the future, to the best of their ability. Because it is a fact that monetary orders to not last more then 20 to 30 years.

    Gold was the canary in the Bretton Woods 1 coal mine and Bretton Woods 1 died. Gold is also the canary in the Bretton Woods 2 coal mine and it is dying. I am just pointing to the dying canary.


    Man....you are definately smoking something...
    did you even read the exchange in your post before you posted it...

  3. #478
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bower View Post
    I don't know how many millions you guys are investing, but to me, a trader in precious metals for 35years this thread is fascinating. All credit to you if you understand all posted here and trade accordingly.

    Bower....for a very long time it was all noise, but at this time when the system is polariseing...it is far more clear.
    It is a good thing to read extensively current opinion....certainaly if your future wellbeing and income is directly effected by that opinion. Even if much of it excapes us...a direction will be evidenced.

    The amount of information you must filter through each day in order to make decisions is huge. Most day traders like me just react to the constant changes in PM prices, i still deal on a phone call and settle at the end of the week.

    Was tradeing gold in '05 under the same conditions....had a respectable position of 868 ozs allocated with the Perth Mint [posted 900 previously to round off]...
    have moved on in my thinking....that doesn't mean gold is not a viable vehicle to trade....i just don't trade it anymore....one reason is the real time platform i use does not support gold tradeing.

    Babymaker, i am sorry but i just cannot understand half of what you write, its too wordy for an uneducated guy like me.

    It probably the spelling....bloody Christian Brothers...

    Socal, i have some knowlege of your dealings and i have said before its brave but good luck to you, you must have made a shedload of money by now.

    More power to Socal....we must have winners....other wise nobody is left to trade with.

    However i am one of those 'belivers in agricultural land' i have sold PMs at the peaks and bought land, it has worked well for me.

    Sound and sensible....derivatives, stocks and gold come and go...but land is forever
    ...if you can hang on.

    Good luck to all you high rollers and you economists please make it simple for the likes of me.....

    There is one maximun i have used as a guide in my life....

    ".... if you don't understand a thing....it is useually a lie....''

    now there is a lot of opinion...lies....around at the moment..
    but the outcome is certain....and your view is absolutely right...

    i'm a little more foolhardy....i'm trying to scrape a little off the table...before they call..."Time...please Gentlemen"....
    CBAPA
    200.739 204.400 08/08/11 1,735 354,634.000 6,351.840 1.820 11:08 am

    DJS
    2.948 2.900 30/08/11 20,000 58,000.000 -960.000 -1.630 11:08 am

    GFF
    0.668 0.645 07/09/11 700,000 451,500.000 -15,820.000 -3.390 11:08 am

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    Last edited by baby maker; 13-09-2011 at 09:33 AM.

  4. #479
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    13 September 2011 Last updated at 05:30 GMT Italian government 'in bond buying talks with China'

    China's largest sovereign wealth fund is considering buying Italian assets, according to reports in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.
    China Investment Corporation (CIC) and Italian officials have held meetings in the last month, the reports said.


    CIC is wholly owned by the Chinese government and has an estimated $400bn (£250bn) in assets.


    The news comes at a time when the cost of borrowing for the Italian government has reached record highs.


    "When you introduce a large buyer like China, it brings down the interest rate," Mark Young of Fitch Ratings told the BBC.


    "They can then fund their economic growth more easily," he added.

    The FT reported that Lou Jiwei, the chairman of China Investment Corporation, had met Italian finance minister Giulio Tremonti and other officials in Rome last week. It added that Italian officials had visited Beijing the week before, and negotiations had also taken place in August. As well as buying bonds, the FT said the talks also covered investments in "strategic" Italian companies.

    According to the newspaper, Italian officials said further negotiations were expected to take place soon. The report caused US stocks to rebound in late afternoon trading on Monday, cutting their earlier losses.


    However, on Tuesday Asian markets had a mixed opening because many analysts questioned whether a purchase of Italian assets by China would do anything to resolve Europe's debt problems.


    They said there was still a danger the crisis would spread, not least because Greece was still at risk of defaulting on its debt holdings.


    "Europe is not just lurching from one crisis to another. It is lurching into a new one before the previous one is solved," said Makoto Noji of SMBC Nikko Securities.

    Italy has a national debt of 120% of gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 23% of all eurozone sovereign debt. According to the International Monetary Fund, it will need to raise funds equalling as much as 20% of its GDP in 2012 to refinance its debt.

    On the other hand, China has been sitting on huge piles of cash, with foreign exchange reserves in excess of $3tn.


    Analysts said given its deep pockets, it wasn't a surprise that countries were seeking China's help. "It is a natural consequence of creditor and debtor nations, one supporting the other," Fitch ratings' Mr Young said.

  5. #480
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    Quote "...On the other hand, China has been sitting on huge piles of cash, with foreign exchange reserves in excess of $3tn. " Unquote harry....

    Interesting post Harry....looks like they have the readys to buy some cheap assets at firesale prices....something they are good at...


    Sept. 13, 2011, 3:08 a.m. EDT
    European shares step higher in early trading


    By Simon Kennedy
    LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European stocks rose in early trading Tuesday as a report that China is considering buying Italian debt helped markets recover some of the previous session's sharp drop. Among stocks on the move, shares in Philips Electronics NV /quotes/zigman/264261 NL:PHIA +4.05% rose 6.3% after the firm increased its cost-cutting measures and said it's confident of hitting its 2013 growth target. Oil and gas exploration firm Cairn Energy PLC /quotes/zigman/576745 UK:CNE -6.34% dropped 6.2% after saying a well in Greenland didn't find oil. The Stoxx Europe 600 index /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP +0.67% rose 1% to 221.13, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index /quotes/zigman/3173262 UK:UKX +0.25% gained 0.9% to 5,172.89, the French CAC 40 /quotes/zigman/3173214 FR:PX1 +0.24% rose 1.3% to 2,891.08 and the German DAX 30 index /quotes/zigman/2380246 DXAX +1.38% climbed 1.7% to 5,158.97.

  6. #481
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    Quote Originally Posted by baby maker View Post
    Quote "...On the other hand, China has been sitting on huge piles of cash, with foreign exchange reserves in excess of $3tn. " Unquote harry....

    Interesting post Harry....looks like they have the readys to buy some cheap assets at firesale prices....something they are good at...

    Actually CIC have a reputation of overpaying!

  7. #482
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    R.I.P....USD...UNDECLARED WAR ?

    Sept. 13, 2011, 1:19 a.m. EDT
    China ex-official: Beijing should help Italy

    By Owen Fletcher
    BEIJING (MarketWatch) -- Helping Italy would be positive for China and the world, a former Chinese central bank official said Tuesday.
    Italy must solve its own problems, but the world can give Italy time and confidence, former People's Bank of China Vice Governor Wu Xiaoling said on the sidelines of a forum.
    Wu also said that "panic" in financial markets over European sovereign debt issues "doesn't help solve the problem."
    The comments by Wu, currently a lawmaker in China's legislature, do not necessarily represent the views of China's top leadership, and in her current post she has no authority over the investment of China's foreign exchange reserves. But her comments do give an indication of the thinking of some Chinese officials on the subject.
    Italy's Finance Ministry has held talks with China's sovereign wealth fund and other Chinese officials in a bid to persuade the Asian country to purchase large amounts of Italian sovereign bonds, a person familiar with the matter said earlier.


    Sept. 13, 2011, 1:17 a.m. EDT
    Chinese adviser: Supporting Europe helps China

    By Owen Fletcher
    BEIJING (MarketWatch) -- It is in China's own interest to support Europe during its sovereign debt crisis, a researcher at a state think tank under China's National Development and Reform Commission said Tuesday.
    Speaking at a forum, Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade, said that supporting Europe is a "counter-cyclical" measure that benefits both China and the world.
    "China knows that helping Italy, helping Greece, helping Europe, is helping the world and helping itself," he said.

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    Last edited by baby maker; 13-09-2011 at 03:33 PM.

  8. #483
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    Sept. 13, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
    Why China would love ‘President Rick Perry’

    Commentary: China wins economically with an ‘inconsequential’ America


    By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
    SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — China must be secretly rooting for a guy like Rick Perry as the next U.S. president. They’d love competing against an America led by another Texas governor who talks from a big hat, loves war spending and tea parties, thinks the Fed chairman is acting “treasonous,” believes Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme” and admits he’s an antiscience, antievolution, anti-intellectual who will turn back the clock to the 19th century frontier Wild West.

    Yes, China’s rooting for a guy who will not only make Washington “inconsequential” for all Americans, he’ll make America “inconsequential” in a world where China knows that its competitive edge and economic growth all hinge on investing in science, innovation and intellectuals with a vision of the future.
    You can bet China’s leaders are cheering for a president who’ll stall the American economy even further while China races ahead of us in the global economic war. China would probably settle for the other leading GOP candidate, that ex-governor whose values shift with the latest polls and Tea Party questions … whatever happened to the GOP’s Bill Buckley soul?
    China’s commie-capitalism beating GOP’s Reaganomics since 2000

    Adam Smith’s original 1776 capitalism made America the world’s greatest superpower. We’ve lost that too. So America’s now in a handicap race with China, and losing. Why?
    In just the past decade China’s state-run hybrid commie-capitalism has beaten the American economy, going from a “poor country” to racing ahead to global economic dominance. Unfortunately, our politicians just don’t get it. They’re like high school teens fighting a turf war who can’t see the building’s burning down.
    In his “Triumph of Politics Over Economics,” Reagan’s budget director David Stockman warns: “America’s at a crossroads struggling to redefine ourselves, at a time when even Reagan couldn’t win the GOP nomination. Why? Because myopic politicians have hijacked the economy. Politicians are the new economists. Politicians now run the economy, puppets of the Super Rich and special-interest lobbyists.”
    Stockman calls this corrupt system Crony Capitalism. We call it Reaganomics and Doomsday Capitalism, a sellf-destructive ideology that works to China’s advantage.
    Here are 11 reasons China’s leaders would love an inconsequential president making America inconsequential in China’s march to economic world domination:
    1. China’s economy: $123 trillion, 3 times America’s by 2040

    In an eye-opening Foreign Policy cover story last year titled “$123,000,000,000,000: Why China’s economy will grow to $123 trillion by 2040,” Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago writes about China’s unbelievable leap forward. Back in 2000, just one decade ago, China was a “poor country” when the GOP and its “war president” took over control of America, announcing that “debt doesn’t matter.”
    Yes, by 2040 “the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union … much higher than that of India and Japan … the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman … Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth … China’s share of global GDP— 40% — will dwarf that of the United States (14%) and the EU (5%) 30 years from now,” one brief generation.
    2. China’s political system is more capitalist than America’s

    “The Chinese political system is likely not what you think,” says Fogel, “Most economic reforms, including the most successful ones, have been locally driven and overseen.” Today there’s “more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking.”
    Fogel attends meetings of the Chinese Economists Society. Many economists are openly “critical of the Chinese government,” will even “point out that the latest decision by the finance ministry is flawed … even publish a critical letter in a Beijing newspaper.”
    3. China is rapidly turning into a capitalist consumer economy

    Yes, “China’s long-repressed consumerist tendencies” are exploding,” says Fogel: “In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now.”
    Get it? While we borrow from China then waste money fighting wars, while Wall Street and the Super Rich are amassing wealth in the hands of the top 1%, “in the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem ‘high middle-income,’ with a clear, growing affinity for acquiring clothes, electronics, fast food, automobiles.”
    Why? Because China’s leaders “made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China’s economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers’ appetite for acquisitions

    4. China’s massive investments in education, ahead of America

    China’s making “enormous investments” in education, says Fogel. They know “educated workers are much more productive workers. … college-educated workers are three times as productive … a high school graduate is 1.8 times as productive as a worker with less than a ninth-grade education.”
    In the next generation China’s high school enrollment rate could reach 100%, the college rate about 50%, adding “more than 6 percentage points to the country’s annual economic growth rate.” Meanwhile, America runs up massive debts wasting trillions on wars, shortchanging education.
    5: China’s locking up global resources, using U.S. dollar reserves

    The title of a Malcolm Knox feature in BusinessWeek says it all: “The deal is simple. Australia gets money. China gets Australia.” Wake up America: While our clueless myopic politicians are fighting self-destructive election turf wars, China is using its reserves (U.S. dollars!) to buy rights to Australia’s commodities and natural resources, giving China long-term access to natural gas, minerals, iron ore.
    And that’s just one continent: China’s quietly buying up future rights to commodity-resources worldwide.
    6. China’s rural economy of 700 million adding to growth rate

    Go beyond the Shanghai high-rises and Guangdong factories,” says Fogel. You’ll see “changes afoot in the Chinese countryside … an under-appreciated economic engine.”
    From 1978 to 2003 China’s labor productivity averaged about 6%. In the future, productivity will also increase in rural areas, for about 700 million or half of China. “That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today” and will explode as a new generation adds another hundred million.
    7. China’s government statistics underreporting progress

    Don’t be misled by reports that “Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways,” says Fogel. Just the opposite: Their “statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress … Small firms often don’t report their numbers to the government.”
    And as in America, “official estimates of GDP badly underestimate national growth” because they don’t “take into account improvements in services such as education and health care.” In short, “the rapid growth of China’s service sector makes the underestimation more pronounced.”
    8: Yes, China does have a long-range plan to conquer America

    China is America’s worst nightmare, engaged in economic warfare against us on multiple fronts: Stealing millions of jobs, stealing U.S. state secrets, stealing proprietary patents, stealing technology, stealing our wealth. China has also forged strategic alliances with our enemies, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. China is engaged in a not-so-secret cyber-war against America.
    Ross Terrill, a China expert at Harvard, wrote in the Wilson Quarterly: “The Chinese Communists are very aware of this contest with the United States, though Americans (beyond the Pentagon) are not.” Terrill warns: “By being a shrinking violet, the United States would simply hand over the future to China.”
    9: China’s aware of Pentagon strategies, is one-upping generals

    You know China’s generals have copies of the Pentagon’s strategic war manual. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warns of China’s long-range plans beyond waging “economic warfare” and tying up long-term natural resources.
    Krugman says China’s actions tell us they’re planning long-term military strategies as well as economic war. He warns that in the near future, some seemly inconsequential incident may provoke “dangerously trigger-happy” Chinese leaders into escalating from defensive military strategies to a preemptive strike to advance China’s economic power.
    10. The “Goldman Conspiracy” is helping China sabotage America

    Li Delin’s “The Goldman Sachs Conspiracy” was a best seller in China. His Chinese readers love his vivid description: “Goldman Sachs knows when to go for your neck” like a “Manchurian tiger.”
    Actually China’s playing a clever game: As author Matt Taibbi might say, China is now a “vampire squid wrapped around the face of Goldman, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into Goldman’s capital, talent and connections.” Eventually China will suck the life out of Goldman.
    11. By 2040 China will be the world’s biggest superpower (again)

    “To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable,” says Fogel. “But it wouldn’t be the first time. … China was the world’s largest economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries. … While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of a rising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo.”
    And thanks to guys like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, Barack Obama, the Goldman Conspiracy and buddies, China is destined to once again become the world’s superpower by 2040, when China’s economy is three times bigger than America’s.

  9. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blake7 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by baby maker View Post
    Quote "...On the other hand, China has been sitting on huge piles of cash, with foreign exchange reserves in excess of $3tn. " Unquote harry....

    Interesting post Harry....looks like they have the readys to buy some cheap assets at firesale prices....something they are good at...

    Actually CIC have a reputation of overpaying!

    ....THAT WILL BE A TRICK....IN THIS ENVIRONMENT....

  10. #485
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    China should help bailout Europe and America

    after all those countries are going bankrupt because of outsourcing,

    without Europe and America, how is China going to roll in cash ?

  11. #486
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    Just a clip on the euro


  12. #487
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    Italy and China in talk for China to buy Italian government Bonds,

    sinking ship ?

  13. #488
    Thailand Expat Hampsha's Avatar
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    An opinion on the US market and investing.



    Another one...

    Last edited by Hampsha; 13-09-2011 at 07:57 PM.

  14. #489
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    All three worth listening to Hampsha...Thanks...

  15. #490
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    Quote Originally Posted by baby maker
    what do you think the Chinese will want to price them in Yuan or USD/EURO
    Are you plumping for US$?

  16. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfly View Post
    China should help bailout Europe and America

    after all those countries are going bankrupt because of outsourcing,

    without Europe and America, how is China going to roll in cash ?
    They have hedged their dollar position with trade deficits with countries like Germany and Japan. Plus they have used US treasuries as collateral for loans from US banks.

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    Jacques Rueff's advice led Charles de Gaulle to begin withdrawing physical gold from the US Treasury during the later years (1965-1967) of the London Gold Pool, and then to withdraw altogether from the Pool in 1968 which ultimately led to the closing of the US gold window in 1971 and the end of Bretton Woods 1. Here is de Gaulle predicting the US monetary crisis in 1965. As you can see, from the similarities in his language, that Bretton Woods 2 is a fiat version of Bretton Woods 1.



    Rueff was highly critical of the use of the dollar as a unit of reserve, which he warned would cause a worldwide inflation.(it is to this day) He was strongly in favor of European integration, and always remained a firm opponent of Lord Keynes' ideas. In 1947, Rueff critiqued Keynes' magnum opus, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. After his critique of Keynes, Rueff's main critic became James Tobin, a Keynesian economist who would later serve as an advisor to both the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury where he would help design the American Keynesian economic policy during the Kennedy administration. It is somehow fitting that Rueff's archnemesis, Tobin, would be best remembered for his 1972 suggestion of the "Tobin Tax", a tax on the exchange of foreign currencies in response to Nixon ending Bretton Woods 1.

  18. #493
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    /\ Good one Socal....and current too....


    Quote Originally Posted by OhOh
    Are you plumping for US$?
    Say again ?....


    If this below becomes fact...which looks like a fair punt...look for a short term kick....certain difficulties in day trading at the moment.... Fed meets 20/21 Sep...21st in Asia could be interesting......


    Bill Gross & Pimco going long…again

    September 13, 2011, 3:08 PM

    By Kurt Brouwer

    Big changes are afoot at Pimco Total Return Fund. As the latest report (August 31, 2011 see link below) indicates, Pimco is changing course to go long and to go home to government securities. Both are big changes from earlier this year.
    This report from one of my favorite blogs, Zero Hedge, fleshes out the details [emphasis added]:
    As the just released latest monthly Total Return Fund data indicates, PIMCO now has a substantial net long position in Government Related securities, at $51.5 billion (net of swaps), a more than 100% increase from the $22.1 billion in July (and a far cry from the $9.6 billion short in April).
    That’s a big boost in government securities. The question is why are they doing this? The ZH folks believe this is a ‘tell’ or an indication that Gross believes the Fed is going to intervene in the bond market in a big way by buying long maturity bonds. That makes sense, but there may also be a simpler explanation, which I’ll get to in a moment. ZH continues with thoughts on what the latest Fed intervention — Operation Twist or Torque or whatever it will be called — will do:
    …the Fed is about to re-enter the securities market to prevent the latest re-depression with Operation Twist if not much more. So while it no longer makes sense to be short bonds (as Gross has figured out the hard way), what makes sense is to be very, very long duration, since this is what the Fed will be buying in Operation Twist/Torque.
    Earlier this year, Gross openly moved out of U.S. Treasury holdings and made a bet on higher interest rates. That did not happen. However, as all good portfolio managers do, when he’s wrong, he changes course. Now, he has done that in a big way by going long and going back into government securities. ZH continues with a discussion of changes in the duration or average weighted maturity of the portfolio:
    …average holding duration, which from 4.56 in July, has soared to 6.27 in August, the highest since 6.23 in October, and possibly the highest on record (that said our records only go back to 2007)
    Pimco Total Return is changing its portfolio in two ways:
    • Duration: First, it is extending the duration to go long. And, make no mistake, a duration of 6.27 years is at the long end of the range for this fund. I chatted with Kevin Winters of Pimco to get some clarification about the fund’s duration policy. The policy is to operate in a range of up to two year over (or under) the Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index. Currently, the BarCap Aggregate is about five years, so Pimco could actually go up to seven years duration.
    • Government securities: The second portfolio change is that the fund is moving more aggressively into U.S. government securities.
    Both lengthening duration and moving strongly back into government securities are big changes from earlier this year. The question I asked myself is why are they making these changes? The ZH folks believe this is a ‘tell’ that Gross believes the Fed is going to intervene in the bond market in a big way. That makes sense, but there may also be a second and more important explanation.
    Fed intervention for a weak economy
    Why would the Fed intervene in a big way? Because the economy is slowly grinding to a halt. I disagree with the Fed’s past interventions, so I am not a fan of QE I, II or a potential QE III. Nonetheless, the only reason I can see for a potential Fed intervention is to shore up a weak economy.
    I suspect that Pimco and Gross are not just thinking about Fed intervention, but rather they are changing their economic outlook. In other words, with the economy weakening, inflation is likely to remain constrained and interest rates will be soft. Therefore, both scenarios — Fed intervention and a weakening economy — warrant a longer portfolio duration.
    Here is a link to Pimco Total Return’s stats through August 31, 2011.

    Disclosure: Kurt Brouwer owns shares in Pimco Total Return (PTTRX)

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    Last edited by baby maker; 14-09-2011 at 03:55 AM.

  19. #494
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    interesting,

    Quote Originally Posted by WSJ
    Income Slides to 1996 Levels
    The income of the typical American family—long the envy of much of the world—has dropped for the third year in a row and is now roughly where it was in 1996 when adjusted for inflation

  20. #495
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    Just for you Socal....holiday downunder ?...

    Sept. 13, 2011, 9:19 p.m. EDT
    Australia's first bullion exchange set to open

    By Robb M. Stewart
    MELBOURNE (MarketWatch) -- Australia's first physical bullion exchange offering an over-the-counter spot market for gold, silver and platinum is set to launch early next month.
    The Australian Bullion Exchange will make direct bullion ownership available to retail and institutional investors from Oct. 4, the new exchange said Wednesday in a statement. Bullion will be bought and sold on the ABX through listed brokers.
    Australia is the world's second-largest producer of gold after China.

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  21. #496
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    Todd Harrison Archives | Email alerts
    Sept. 14, 2011, 12:00 a.m. EDT
    Can Europe avoid the sovereign sequel?

    Commentary: The difference between a mistake and a lesson

    By Todd Harrison
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The European crisis has been building for years; it’s about time it became front-page news.
    The most intuitive positive surrounding the European debt crisis is that the sovereign sequel has been so scripted — how scripted was it? Minyanville first mapped it in February 2010! — that they should have a back-up plan in place, if in fact there is one. Read: A Five-Step Guide to Contagion
    “One thing is for certain; there needs to be deeper fiscal integration (much to the chagrin of the German people) or a smaller euro zone. My fear on the latter matter — which would be in lock-step with the first phase of the financial
    crisis — is that if the European Union kicks Greece to the curb, Portugal will come into the crosshairs; and if Portugal is excused, Spain will emerge as the target, and so on and so on and so on.”
    As posited 19 months ago, and equally apt today:
    “As the European Union and International Monetary Fund wrestle with how to address the sovereign mess, our financial fate can be drilled down to one very simple question: Will we see contagion, as we did with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, or will the current congestion be contained in the context of an evolving globalization?
    “The bulls will offer that corrections must feel sinister if they’re to be truly effective. They’re right, of course, but I will remind you of a salient point made by Professor Peter Atwater on Minyanville. If sovereign lifeguards saved corporations when the financial crisis first hit, who is left to save the lifeguards?”
    Continuing with our Five-Step Guide to Contagion, we offered,
    “We can talk about how the capital market construct forever changed, how our constitutional rights have been challenged or how the lifestyles of the rich conflict with the struggle to exist. While those dynamics remain in play, they miss an entirely more relevant point for purposes of this discussion. ( See The Declaration of Interdependence
    “Social mood and risk appetites shape financial markets. One of the greatest misperceptions of all time was that The Crash caused the Great Depression when the Great Depression actually caused The Crash.
    “It’s been a full year (now over two years) since Minyanville fingered Eastern Europe as a modern-day incarnation of a sub-prime borrower. The question is therefore begged, what if Greece is Fannie Mae, Portugal is Freddie Mac, Spain is AIG, Argentina is Wachovia Bank, and Ireland is Lehman Brothers? ( Also read Eastern Europe: Subprime Borrower
    “Contagion, by definition, arrives in phases and we must remember that Greece is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself. Regardless of what IMF or euro zone “cross border solution” we see, it’ll simply buy time, much like the bearded nationalization of Fannie and Freddie pushed risk out on the time continuum.
    “Given the trending direction of social mood and the discounting mechanism that is the market, the perception that defines our financial reality must remain front and center in the mainstream mindset.
    “And finally, bringing this column full circle to modern-day relevance, the acceptance” of this inevitable evolution — the comeuppance of untenable debt and the manifestation of risk gone awry — is finally front-page news and yes, the 34% two-month decline in Germany, and the deterioration in the euro zone periphery has begun to discount this dynamic.”
    In September 2008, we offered that the government invented fingers to plug the multitude of holes that sprang open in the financial dike. That imagery would again apply if there were viable fingers attached to a healthy and able arm.
    “While many dismiss the notion that Greece or Portugal “matter” in the global financial construct, I’ll explain why they might. Concerns in the euro zone could manifest through a “flight to quality” in the U.S. dollar (up 5% thus far in September).
    “Those hoping for a stronger greenback should be careful for what they wish, much like the “lower crude will be equity positive” crowd learned in 2008. See Oil of Oy Vey
    “In an “asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation” environment, a weak currency is a necessary precursor to — but no guarantor of — higher asset class prices. See Hyperinflation vs. Deflation
    “The hedge-fund community currently has the carry trade on in size. If the greenback continues to strengthen, the specter of an unwind increases in kind. Should that occur, asset class positions financed with borrowed dollars would come for sale across the board.
    “In the meantime, as we edge from here to there, be on the lookout for the unintended consequences of European austerity initiatives, including but not limited to social unrest and the abatement of risk appetites.”
    And so it is; the more things change, the more they stay the same. Let’s just hope policymakers have the wisdom and experience to learn from the past so that our global economy can emerge from the vicious cycle of investors get punished at the top and savers get roasted at the bottom

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  22. #497
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    Jobs: Worse than you think

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. labor force is shrinking, as more Americans are giving up hope.

    Last month, only 58.1% of Americans age 16 and over were employed, a significant drop from before the recession and the lowest since 1983.

    That's especially worrisome to economists, who say a steady increase in those dropping out of the work force and not being counted in the unemployment rate is disguising just how bad the labor market really is.

    "People are dropping out of labor force for all types of reasons," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics. "And it's not a good trend. A good part of the wealth of a nation has to do with the proportion of population that works."

    Some economists say that the employment-population ratio, or "e-pop," is a more accurate snapshot of the labor market than the unemployment rate, which fell to 9.1% last month from 10.1% in October 2009.

    "When we have a time when the labor force is not growing normally, e-pop provides the cleanest assessment of what is going on in the labor market," said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank. "What you see is from '07 to '09 -- it fell off a cliff, and it hasn't recovered since then."


    While demographic factors like baby boomers reaching retirement age and younger people staying in school longer are playing a role, Shierholz said, the economy is the biggest driver.

    Fewer Americans are working today than in recent decades because of the growing number of discouraged job seekers.

    The Labor Department estimates that there are 6.6 million people who want a job but have left the labor force for one reason or another. That's the highest reading in 17 years, and an increase of 1.9 million since the start of the recession.

    "That's a tremendous loss of human capital," said John Silvia, chief economist for Well Fargo Securities. "That means that the unemployment rate, even at 9.1%, is not as good as it seems."

    Many of the unemployed are getting various forms of government support, like disability benefits and unemployment insurance. But some of those programs are masking the extent of the problem.

    For example, collecting unemployment gives the jobless a reason to keep applying, which can boost the number of workers looking for jobs. But once they've exhausted their benefits, they have little incentive to keep looking and suddenly fall off the rolls.

    Disability benefits have a similar effect. In a good economy, workers with health problems might remain in the labor force and continue to look for work. But with few jobs available, the disability program gives them a reason to drop out of the workforce.

    The result is a shrinking pool of workers that isn't keeping pace with population growth.

    "If anything, we're likely to continue to see this ratio of those in the labor force go down further," said Gad Levanon, associate director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board.


    Unemployment doesn't show how bad the job market really is - Aug. 8, 2011

  23. #498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hampsha
    That's especially worrisome to economists, who say a steady increase in those dropping out of the work force and not being counted in the unemployment rate is disguising just how bad the labor market really is.
    must be to Europe proportion, that is 20% or more

  24. #499
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    Sept. 14, 2011, 10:50 p.m. EDT
    China's role in world overestimated, says CCB head


    By Esther Fung
    DALIAN, China -(MarketWatch)- Some countries have overestimated China's role in the global economy, Guo Shuqing, chairman of state-run China Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK), said Thursday.
    Speaking at the World Economic Forum in China's northeastern coastal city of Dalian, Guo, a former deputy governor of China's central bank, said he doesn't think China can purge the world of the economic crisis.
    He also said China doesn't have a big say in the pricing of raw materials although it's now the world's largest buyer of commodities.
    China Construction Bank is the country's second-largest lender by assets after Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (1398.HK).

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  25. #500
    Thailand Expat OhOh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baby maker
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OhOh
    Are you plumping for US$?
    Say again ?....
    I am assuming you are suggesting that China will offer US securities as the "payment" collateral.

    Therefore buying EU assets with is US funds, reducing it's US$ exposer and gaining EU physical assets.

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