Thread: US Stocks Plunge, Dow Falls Over 300 Points As Fears Grip Market

Interesting chart. Gold was fairly stable for centuries, but only in the last few decades has its "value" inflated wildly (and without any kind of justification). I suspect that the value of paper money used to buy gold has really been devalued rather than the metal itself gaining any real sort of value intrinsically.

Someone mentioned that it only costs 20% of its market value to actually mine the stuff so something fishy is definitely going on.

My prediction: Gold will fall back to $300 oz +/- by 2015 or sooner.

Sept. 6, 2011, 3:18 p.m. EDT
Germany critical of more power, funds for IMF



By Tom Fairless
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Germany's Bundesbank is critical of granting considerably more power and money to the International Monetary Fund, a senior Bundesbank executive said Tuesday, warning such a move could substantially restrict the autonomy of national central banks.
Speaking at a conference in Frankfurt, Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret said giving the IMF control of global financial safety nets would "weaken rather than strengthen the financial responsibility of the individual countries" unless sufficient fiscal conditions were attached.
"Particularly in light of the sovereign debt crisis, we consider this strategy unsuitable as a means of making the international monetary and financial system more resilient," Dombret said.
G20 countries are considering significantly expanding the powers and funds of the IMF, including creating global rescue funds under its supervision, to provide financial aid more quickly in future crises, Dombret said.
"Like many other IMF members, the Bundesbank is critical of these endeavors," he said.
The comments come a day after Dombret said the IMF's new estimates for additional European bank writedowns were unfortunate and appeared to do more harm than good.
Giving the IMF control over global rescue funds would force central banks whose currencies are part of the basket of the IMF's special drawing rights to provide potentially unlimited liquidity, since the IMF cannot itself create money, Dombret said Tuesday.
"Central banks' monetary policy autonomy would be substantially restricted if the IMF were to become a 'world central bank' or the global lender of last resort--which is what almost unlimited liquidity provision would in fact mean," Dombret said.
The Bundesbank has previously criticized the euro-zone's rescue funds. In its monthly report in August, the bank warned the bloc's latest rescue package, agreed at a summit on July 21, will weaken the foundations of the currency union and could increase states' tendency to build up debts.
Still, the events of this summer make it "abundantly clear" that the "financial and debt crisis is, unfortunately, far from over," Dombret added.
Dombret also said the Bundesbank takes a dim view of direct political intervention aimed at curbing global current account imbalances. Such imbalances could be better addressed by eliminating barriers to natural adjustment, such as unjustified exchange rate pegs, he said.
Germany has been criticized by some countries for running excessive budget surpluses.

Sept. 6, 2011, 2:11 p.m. EDT
Bernanke: U.S. exposure to periphery 'manageable'


By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The exposure of U.S. banks to Greece, Ireland and Portugal is manageable and quite small, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told U.S. Senator Bob Corker in a letter written in July that was released Tuesday. The nearly $200 billion exposure the Bank for International Settlements has reported capture only one side of banks' credit-default swap exposure, Bernanke said. Confidential supervisory information and CDS data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.'s trade information warehouse indicate that the exposures are "quite small." Bernanke does note a sovereign credit event could affect a broad range of markets and financial institutinos.

Sept. 6, 2011, 10:59 a.m. EDT
German high court's bailout ruling looms

Constitutional court expected to back government, but jitters high



By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Germany’s federal constitutional court is expected Wednesday to render its decision on a lawsuit challenging the country’s participation in euro-zone bailouts, marking another source of potential turmoil for the region’s unsettled financial markets.
The court “is not expected to block Germany’s contribution to aid but imagine the chaos if it did,” said Jessica Hoversen, currency strategist at MF Global in New York.
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Europe's stock drop reflects global worries

Concerns are mounting that euro-zone officials won't act decisively to address the region's growing debt crisis, sending equities and the euro tumbling Tuesday and spurring investors to take refuge in German government bonds. Brian Blackstone reports on the News Hub.

The decision comes amid volatile conditions in financial markets, exacerbated by fears European leaders are losing control of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, strategists say.
The court is ruling on two separate complaints from economics professors and politicians over the legality of Germany’s participation in the first Greek bailout approved last May and the establishment of the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF, which serves as the euro-zone rescue fund.
“If the judgment agrees with the plaintiffs, the decision could undermine any attempts to stabilize the credit markets in [the euro-zone] periphery and could spark a fresh round of risk aversion flows,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT.
A rise in risk aversion would mean further pressure on equities and peripheral euro-zone government bonds.
“Expectations are that the ruling will indeed go in favor of the government,” said Chris Scicluna, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets. “But the ruling may well still have implications for future steps towards closer fiscal cooperation, including the planned reforms to the EFSF still yet to be endorsed by national parliaments.”

William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in Frankfurt.

[quote=baby maker;1865792]

Originally Posted by socal

First of all, if you think you are going to escape turmoil because you have no gold, think again.

Nobody excapes, if it comes to feit falure...and another depression.

Depressions do not destroy all capital in the world. They only consolidate capital. Gold is the best consolidator of capital. Look at the unemployment in the US. This is already a depression, it has been since 2008.

Originally Posted by socal

The Euro FLOATS gold on the asset side of its balance sheet marked to market. It is just holding its gold as a wealth reserve asset. The Euro currency itself is completely severed from gold. It is not backed by gold or convertible at any fixed price and it never will be. There will be no new gold standard.

As it should be....nothing irregular in this....

The Fed has no gold and the US treasury has their 8000 tons market at $42. In the dollar/fiat system, gold is a competitor to bonds, in the Euro system, gold is the store of value. To put it better, it is up to the market to decide if gold is the store of value.

Is there a feit currency today that is fixed and can be surendered for gold...I think not....but strangly you can buy gold with feit.

In every main Euro center bank you can exchange Euro's for gold at the market price with no tax.

You don't find that a little bit strange....that something that is villified a haveing an ever depreciating value can be exchanged for a metal that has a noninal value in that same depreciating villified currency.

You are pricing gold in the fiat currency. Price everything else against gold. The price of everything, copper, gas , oil is getting cheaper against gold. Because it is turning into the store of value. For daily or monthly expenses, fiat usually stores purchasing power good enough.

Where is the store of wealth in that transaction.

There doesn't need to be a store of wealth in a transaction. When you walk into a store and buy a chicken, no equity really changed hands. You just bartered your time for a chicken using a fiat number as a numerator.

Originally Posted by socal

Right now, government bonds are the wealth reserve asset of the world. US, Canadian, Japanese, you name it, these bonds are the wealth reserve asset. These government bonds are not even really assets, they are just fiat promises to pay more fiat in the future. So essentially, the world uses fiat as a store of value AND fiat as a medium of exchange.

No denying that...Government sponsored Ponzi Schemes....worked very well in a time of demand, production and expansion...but now "dead man walking" one may say....the world bussiness model has changed for many reasons...we've run out of customers, battlers and believers.

Originally Posted by socal

Freegold is the inevitable transition to the 2 functions of money being split.

Now here I have serious reservations with your rational....the means of exchange is as necessary as food and water....it is food and water....

and therefor needs a vehicle...many material goods have seved that purpose...shells, pigs, cattle, women, slaves any number of things down through the ages....and yes gold, silver and precious stones.

...but the value attributed was and will allways be nominal....by negiotion.

Fiat works fine for medium term transactions. Nobody saves any capital in the Jamaican dollar but it still works as a meduim of exchange. Jamican millionaires hold foreign currencies or bonds. There is no equity behind a currency like the Jamican dollar.

Originally Posted by socal

Fiat will continue its roll as medium of exchange but it will not and cannot continue its roll as store of value. Gold will take on the roll as store of value.

Here this idea goes all wrong....how can value be attributed to Gold, if it is not mandidated...that is fixed...how can it be a store of value if it is not exchangeable for say land or livestock....and if it is exchangeable the value of Gold, land and livestock is nominal and therefor negiotable....for the dianamic in exchange is nominal and an exercise in relative value...as it allways is.

It is up to the market to decide if gold has value. Nobody is forced to hold it. Under the dollar system, it is just the opposite. They have fractional reserve bullion banking to suppress the price. Gold is exchangable for any fiat currency in the world right now. You can buy anything with gold, you just have to convert it to a medium of exchange first.

Originally Posted by socal

This is nothing you can understand in a few paragraphs. Its a deep subject.

I am indebted to you for your caution, for your admonishment to understanding....

I have worked in this field for over forty years as a self employed, self funded trader....and increaseingly the complexity and the simplicity of the discipline continues to amaze my understanding, and apparently I am not alone....greater men with greater minds than mine are confused...and I might add with greater salaries, to ease that confuseion....

You indeed, are a standout...to have confidently cracked the code...no word on the end game...as yet...
or is that a work in progress...you'll know when you get there.

Read the FOFOA blog. I have been reading it for 3 years. After a while you will realize that it is the only thing that can happen. Nothing is stopping it.

Originally Posted by Agent_Smith

My prediction: Gold will fall back to $300 oz +/- by 2015 or sooner.

it's a 20 yr cycle, so 2020 is more like it

Not a sign of strength from the US of A's check knitting partner....



Sept. 6, 2011, 10:55 p.m. EDT
Japan may sell stakes in Inpex, Japex: report

By Tokyo Bureau
TOKYO -(MarketWatch)- Japan's government is considering selling its stakes in Inpex (1605.TO) and in the Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. (1662.TO), or Japex, and using the funds for reconstruction of northeastern areas of the country devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, local media reported Wednesday.
The ruling Democratic Party of Japan is considering selling the stakes, which are held in a special account with approximately Y700 billion of investments oil and gas-related developments, the Mainichi Shimbun said.
The government owns a 19% stake in Inpex and 34% of Japex.
Government funding for reconstruction of the quake-hit areas is expected cost around Y13 trillion over five years.

Trading Strategies

Matthew Lynn's London Eye Archives | Email alerts
Sept. 7, 2011, 12:00 a.m. EDT
German angst takes world back to the 1930s

Commentary: Indecision over euro’s future is holding us all back

By Matthew Lynn
LONDON (MarketWatch) — There is one thing the world economy is not short of right now: Comparisons with the 1930s. And endless parade of pundits and commentators have constantly lectured us that we may be heading for a re-run of that dismal decade. We have suffered a huge financial crash, followed by a deep recession, then a weak recovery, after which we look to be heading into a recession again. The argument usually ends up by advocating a massive stimulus program and even bigger deficits to avoid that fate,
It is mostly nonsense. The world today has very little in common with the world of 80 years ago. We don’t suffer from an excess of savings; we suffer from an excess of debt. There is no gold standard, and no currency crisis — although there may be one brewing. There is little sign of protectionism. In fact, global trade is getting easier, not harder.
Click to Play
Never-ending European debt crisis

European leaders say they have solutions to the sovereign-debt crisis, but their lack of decisive action is leading to one giant game of whac-a-mole, MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends says. He discusses with Evan Newmark on Mean Street.

But the world today does share one feature with the 1930s that is usually overlooked. What happens to the global economy depends crucially on what happens in Germany — and how that country sees itself fitting into Europe and the rest of the world.
In the 1930s, it was aggressive fascism that destabilized the world.
In the 2010s, it is the country’s prevarication over the euro /quotes/zigman/4867933/sampled EURUSD +0.35% .
The reluctance of the Germans to get to grips with the tough choices now facing the single currency is now posing huge risks to the global economy. It may well precipitate another crash. It is certainly the biggest challenge the markets face.
There will be a dramatic illustration of that this week. On Wednesday, the German Federal Constitutional Court, based in Karlsruhe, is due to deliver its verdict on the legality of the country’s participation in the euro bailout fund, the aid given to bankrupt peripheral euro countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
A group of anti-euro academics and politicians have bought three lawsuits against the bailouts, arguing that by turning the single currency into a ‘transfer union’ they violate both the European Union treaties as well as Germany’s own basic law.
Whether the judges agree with that argument or not remains to be seen. The Maastricht Treaty that established the legal basis for the single currency certainly appeared to rule out fiscal transfers between member states. But European treaties have usually been fairly vague, meaning different things at different times to different people. They have seldom been applied rigidly in the past — and in the midst of a crisis within the euro, the judges may well decide this is not the time to start sticking to the letter of the law.
What is certainly true is that a decision to rule the bailouts unconstitutional would be a massive blow to the euro. Germany is the most important economy in Europe. It will be paying at least a quarter of the bailouts agreed so far, and potentially much more if other countries need to be rescued as well. If the court bans German participation, it is not exaggeration to say the game is up.
The markets will be understandably nervous on Wednesday. The wrong decision could edge the euro close to a messy, acrimonious collapse.
But even if it doesn’t — and in truth, the judges will probably be too nervous of the consequences of finding in favor of the plaintiffs to do so — the German national psycho-drama over the single currency will run and run.
It is obvious to just about anyone what needs to happen to the euro now. It doesn’t work the way it was originally set up. Three countries have gone bust, and more are on the edge. You can’t have a monetary system in which whole nations have to be continually rescued by the International Monetary Fund. Either you move to a single economic government, with tax-raising powers, common debt and eurobonds that are issued jointly by all the members of the single currency. Or else you just admit the whole thing was a bad idea from the start and start dismembering it.
Either are perfectly legitimate intellectual positions. The French, Italians and Spanish would almost certainly be happy to go along with a full economic government. The Dutch and the Greeks and the Irish would probably be happy to end the experiment with a single currency.
The problem is Germany. It can’t appear to decide what it wants. It doesn’t want to surrender management of its economy, and make itself liable for the debts of lots of countries it doesn’t trust. But it doesn’t want to call a halt to European integration either.
Two generations of German leaders have committed themselves to integrating the country within the framework of the EU. If they stop now, and allow the euro to fail, they have to start asking all sorts of difficult questions. What sort of country does Germany want to be? How does it relate to the rest of the world? Those are issues to which, given the terrible history of the twentieth century, there are no easy answers.
So Germany has become the obstacle to moving forward.
It is no coincidence that angst is a German word. For all its scientific, technical and cultural brilliance, it is a country prone to mood swings and is historically uncertain of what role it wants to play in the world.
The euro is now critically dependent on the German national mood. So, in fact, is the world — so long as German can’t resolve this question there is a risk of a sudden, catastrophic collapse of the single currency.
The markets should be in reasonable shape right now. The emerging markets are growing strongly. Corporate profits are holding up. The developed world has too much debt to grow very much, and may well slide back into a mild recession. But it is gradually working that debt off. The global economy should be in okay shape.
But German indecision is undermining confidence everywhere — and without confidence, the economy can’t grow. In that respect, German indecision is taking us back to the 1930s.




Matthew Lynn is chief executive of Strategy Economics, a London-based consultancy. His latest book is 'Bust: Greece, the Euro, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis.'

Originally Posted by Agent_Smith

Interesting chart. Gold was fairly stable for centuries, but only in the last few decades has its "value" inflated wildly (and without any kind of justification). I suspect that the value of paper money used to buy gold has really been devalued rather than the metal itself gaining any real sort of value intrinsically.

Someone mentioned that it only costs 20% of its market value to actually mine the stuff so something fishy is definitely going on.

My prediction: Gold will fall back to $300 oz +/- by 2015 or sooner.

Mining costs have NOTHING to do with it. You have to find it first, it is rare.

You know nothing about gold or financial markets. Nothing you say has any credibility. I gave my prediction over a year ago when I said it could easily double and it has. I said it would close above $1800 at the end of the year 5 months ago and it will.

Originally Posted by Butterfly

Originally Posted by Agent_Smith

My prediction: Gold will fall back to $300 oz +/- by 2015 or sooner.

it's a 20 yr cycle, so 2020 is more like it

When gold passes $3000 an oz, we will never see it below that in our lifetimes or any of our kids lifetimes.

Originally Posted by Agent_Smith

My prediction: Gold will fall back to $300 oz +/- by 2015 or sooner.

Brave prediction considering the last 10 years :



New York Gold Chart

I remember that my first two bedroomed house near London cost 19,900 pounds. I doubt it will ever see that price again unless the black death returns to Europe and kills 25 % of Europes population.

As for gold, can't help feeling the same. More and more people wanting to hold a little of something that is not as common as paper. It might well go down but short of some terrible cataclysm , not by that much.

Sept. 7, 2011, 4:33 a.m. EDT
Europe adds to gains after German court ruling

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- European stock markets expanded on earlier gains, with the German DAX 30 index particularly pushing higher after media reports that a German court upheld the country's role in the first Greek bailout. The DAX rose 2.7% to 5,333.77, while the Stoxx Europe 600 index /quotes/zigman/2380150 XX:SXXP +2.15% rose 2.1% to 226.75. The France CAC 40 index /quotes/zigman/3173214 FR:PX1 +2.69% rose 2.4% to 3,035.62 and the FTSE 100 index /quotes/zigman/3173262 UK:UKX +1.83% gained 2.2% to 5,258.10. Banks and resource stocks were among the biggest gainers. Observers had been waiting for Germany's federal constitutional court to rule on a lawsuit challenging the country's participation in bailouts of indebted European countries such as Greece.


U.S. Stock Futures
S&P +14.70 / +1.26% Level1,179.20 Fair Value1,164.46Difference14.74Data as of 7:08am ET
Nasdaq +25.25 / +1.17% Level2,190.50 Fair Value2,167.36 Difference23.14 Data as of 7:06am ET
Dow +123.00 / +1.11% Level11,251.00 Data as of 7:07am ET

Any clue here for the true believers....?

Sept. 7, 2011, 3:52 a.m. EDT
Gold futures extend loss as equities rise

By William L. Watts

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures traded lower Wednesday, under pressure as Asian and European equities posted strong gains and U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open for Wall Street, undercutting safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Gold for December delivery /quotes/zigman/661658 GC1Z -1.74% fell $24.40 to trade at $1,848.90 an ounce in electronic trade. Gold hit an intraday record of $1,923.70 an ounce on Tuesday but settled lower after fears of a steep fall in U.S. stocks didn't materialize

Originally Posted by Bangyai

Originally Posted by Agent_Smith

My prediction: Gold will fall back to $300 oz +/- by 2015 or sooner.

Brave prediction considering the last 10 years :



New York Gold Chart

I remember that my first two bedroomed house near London cost 19,900 pounds. I doubt it will ever see that price again unless the black death returns to Europe and kills 25 % of Europes population.

As for gold, can't help feeling the same. More and more people wanting to hold a little of something that is not as common as paper. It might well go down but short of some terrible cataclysm , not by that much.

It is a totally illogical uninformed senseless prediction.

Gold never makes new lows even after bear markets. That would be like saying in the 70's, after gold went from $35 to $175, that gold would go back down to $45. The reality is, gold went from $175 to $850 and then down to $400 and then slowly down to $300. So anyone who bought at the "frothy" price of $175 still had more then a double after the new rock bottom low.

And the only reason it fell from $850 ? 25% interest rates. Do the math on the US deficit at 25% interest rates.

Originally Posted by Bangyai

I remember that my first two bedroomed house near London cost 19,900 pounds. I doubt it will ever see that price again.
As for gold, can't help feeling the same. More and more people wanting to hold a little of something that is not as common as paper.

sure, I just bought a neat stack of gold; it needs updating a little so I am going to decorate it in the modern style

Originally Posted by baby maker

added today 700k of GFF/ASX...CD 2.5 cents 22/09....
sweated it all day, traded below my entry on the close....
the eve of the German decision...which could only go one way...and did.

If you didn't enjoy the thrill you wouldn't be doing it, admit it.

Interesting to observe the predictable result of the decision in Germany today. Gold down, markets up. And yet what does that decision mean ? It just means they are going to continue with the policies that have so far failed to deal with the debt problem. But what else could they do ? A desision the other way could have tipped things into recession ?

So , its steady as she goes until they reach a depression instead. Stave off the immediate threat of pain for an inglorious death. Great. Chance for me to snap up some more cheap gold before :

Originally Posted by Bangyai

Interesting to observe the predictable result of the decision in Germany today. Gold down, markets up. And yet what does that decision mean ? It just means they are going to continue with the policies that have so far failed to deal with the debt problem. But what else could they do ? A desision the other way could have tipped things into recession ?

So , its steady as she goes until they reach a depression instead. Stave off the immediate threat of pain for an inglorious death. Great. Chance for me to snap up some more cheap gold before :

You should buy at least half of your position today, not tomorrow but today. I would anyway...

See above...../\ /\

Metals Stocks Archives | Email alerts
Sept. 7, 2011, 12:13 p.m. EDT
Gold drops as investors favor riskier assets

Swiss move to halt franc rise to boost gold over long run: analysts



By Claudia Assis and Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures declined Wednesday as investors veered toward investments considered riskier and shied away from the metal’s recent price spike.
Gold, which retreated modestly Tuesday, fell sharply Wednesday as global equity markets gained and on reports that President Barack Obama will propose a plan to create more jobs.
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Are stocks undervalued?

The market's price-to-earnings ratio is a lot more attractive now than it was three months ago, MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert says.

Prices dropped by as much as $79 an ounce to trade below $1,800 an ounce earlier. The December contract /quotes/zigman/661658 GC1Z -2.92% recently was down $54.50, or 2.9%, at $1,819.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Futures prices haven’t closed below $1,800 since Aug. 29.
Asian and European equities posted strong gains, while U.S. stocks headed higher.
Gold futures notched an intraday record of $1,923.10 an ounce on Tuesday, but ended lower after a feared rout in U.S. equities didn’t materialize.
“Equities are sharply higher today, and Obama is coming on with his jobs address,” said Matt Zeman, a senior market strategist at Kingsview Financial in Chicago.

“We’ve seen a little but of a return of risk appetite,” but not for long, he added. “I suspect buyers will come back bargain hunting again.”
Gold investors were still digesting the decision by the Swiss National Bank on Tuesday to cap the value of the Swiss franc /quotes/zigman/4868091/sampled EURCHF +0.23% versus the euro. The move was seen by many analysts as a long-term positive for gold.
The SNB vowed to buy “unlimited quantities” of foreign currencies, if necessary, to ensure the euro doesn’t dip below CHF1.20.
The decision effectively robs traders of a long-favored safe haven, which will further stoke the attractiveness of gold and other perceived havens during market turmoil.
But in the shorter term, the SNB’s move may be putting the brakes on gold as some investors had been using the strong franc to make their purchases in gold.
“Part of the gold momentum story was simple price arbitrage: to buy something in a strong currency and then sell in a weaker currency, thus generating a profit on the difference,” said Richard Hastings, a macro strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
“The swiss franc was probably a major vehicle in this trade, as was the yen, but now the outlook is a much, much weaker swiss franc and a slightly weaker yen — so where’s the carry trade for gold?” he said. “The new Swiss franc peg totally damages the correlation and, therefore, it hurts gold’s momentum. Next support at approximately $1,775.” Watch a video interview with Hastings on the Swiss franc/gold correlation.
Strategists at Barclays Capital said the move by Switzerland is unlikely to quell global market turmoil, because the Swiss economy is too small to have a significant impact on the key problems facing global asset markets — the euro-zone crisis and weakening global growth.
“What it does do is to reduce the number of ‘safe-haven’ assets: Admittedly, only by one, but they have become increasingly scarce. The measure therefore adds to the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and gold, in our opinion,” the strategists said in a note.
Silver followed gold lower, with the December contract /quotes/zigman/663010 SI1Z -0.49% down 49 cents, or 1.2%, at $41.34 an ounce.
October platinum /quotes/zigman/2304883 PL1V -1.71% also fell, off $31, or 1.7%, to $1,827.20 an ounce. Copper and palladium bucked the trend, however.
December copper /quotes/zigman/635638 HG1Z +1.82% added 7 cents, or 1.7%, to $4.11 a pound, and December palladium /quotes/zigman/2304931 PA1Z +0.43% added $3.10, or 0.4%, to $752.65 an ounce.


Claudia Assis is a San Francisco-based reporter for MarketWatch. Myra Saefong is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco.


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