Thread: Russia launches Ukraine invasion

Originally Posted by Troy

Alarming perhaps, but I wouldn't have called it scary.

I was a teenage kid living on a military base, for me, it was scary.

Originally Posted by Troy

In fact, I can't even recall what I was doing when it happened, my last year in the forces.

My father was in the Army at the time. He was informed of what was going on and came home to tell the family that we had to go to our rooms and back one bag. When asked why, he said that there was some kind of nuclear accident in the Soviet Union and if the cloud was going to drift in the way of Germany, us families would be evacuated back to the US, hence the packing of one bag. The soldiers of course would have had to stay behind.

British Defense Ministry: Russia has constructed one of the world’s ‘most extensive systems of military defensive works’

The British Ministry of Defense reported in its latest intelligence update that Russia has constructed one of the world’s “most extensive systems of military defensive works.” The ministry says that Russia has constructed a multi-layered defensive zone on the northern border of annexed Crimea and dug hundreds of kilometers of trenches in Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions bordering Ukraine.


According to the update, this may indicate that the Russian authorities fear Ukraine’s armed forces could achieve a major breakthrough. The defense lines can also be used “to promote the official narrative that Russia is ‘threatened’ by Ukraine and NATO.”

British Defense Ministry: Russia has constructed one of the world’s ‘most extensive systems of military defensive works’ — Meduza

The meat grinder is real...

Of the Russian soldiers no longer on the battlefield, 20,000 were killed, according to John Kirby, a White House spokesman. Half of them were Wagner mercenaries.

At least 100,000 Russian fighters have been killed or wounded in Ukraine in the past five months, the White House said on Monday, the latest measure of the vast human toll of President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion.

John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said the figure included 20,000 Russian fighters who had been killed in action. About half of those were mercenaries for the Wagner group, the paramilitary force founded by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin that recruited heavily from Russian prisons to bolster its ranks and carry out a brutal campaign around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

In November, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reported that 100,000 fighters on each side had been killed or wounded since the war began in February 2022. But American officials believe the losses have grown for Russia as it has sent waves of poorly trained recruits and convicts to the front lines.

Estimating casualties is notoriously difficult. Moscow is believed to undercount those killed or injured on the battlefield, and Mr. Kirby did not provide specific details on how the United States had calculated Russia’s losses, except to say it involved corroborated intelligence.

A trove of leaked Pentagon documents disclosed in April included an American estimate that as of February Russia had sustained between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action. The document also estimated that Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with up to 17,500 killed in action.

Kyiv has also been reluctant to disclose wartime losses and Mr. Kirby did not provide any updates on Ukrainian casualties on Monday.

“They are the victims here,” he said. “Russia is the aggressor.”

White House Sets Russian Troop Losses at 100,000 Over Last 5 Months - The New York Times

For those thinking that Republicans winning elections will change US support for Ukraine.

Originally Posted by pickel

For those thinking that Republicans winning elections will change US support for Ukraine.

I think Sabang tried to make that argument. They still at least have some sense in them when it comes to Ukraine.

Originally Posted by pickel

For those thinking that Republicans winning elections will change US support for Ukraine.

Wait until Trump is elected President again. Will hopefully never happen though.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

Wait until Trump is elected President again.

He won't be.

Originally Posted by bsnub

He won't be.

I think the same. Him being the leading candidate of the GOP is good news. Because he won't win.

^ Unfortunately, that's what every sane person was thinking the last time.

Originally Posted by Troy

Unfortunately, that's what every sane person was thinking the last time.

We have now the results of the midterm elections. Trump is still a power within the GOP. He got many of his candidates through and they were soundly beaten.

Eight new Ukrainian brigades of soldiers have been formed to take part in a future counteroffensive amid growing speculation about its timing and whether it can succeed in inflicting a serious defeat on the Russian invaders.

The Ukrainian interior ministry said on Tuesday it had “fully formed” the initial “storm” brigades, comprising up to 40,000 troops, but added they would need further training before being ready to take part in fighting.

Ihor Klymenko, the interior minister, said in an interview the troops would be re-equipped and the instruction process would take another two to three weeks before they could be tasked with “appropriate offensive assault operations” alongside the Ukrainian army.

Questions had been raised about how successful the recruitment process had been for the storm force, amid concern that the pool of Ukrainians willing to fight was diminishing as the war reaches the 15-month mark.

Both sides remain engaged in attritional fighting across the eastern front, particularly around Bakhmut, where Ukraine retains a foothold, despite nearly a year of Russian attacks in and around the small industrial city.

On Monday, the US estimated more than 20,000 Russian soldiers had been killed and more than 80,000 injured in just five months of fighting in Ukraine, mostly around Bakhmut, where Moscow’s forces have had to fight from building to building.

Russia rejected the claim on Tuesday, saying the figure had been “plucked from thin air”, and added that Washington had no way of obtaining the correct data. Battlefield casualties are difficult for third parties to estimate, but the figure gives a broad indication of the intensity of the fighting.

The US and other western allies do not estimate Ukrainian casualties publicly, saying it is sensitive information that could undermine an ally. But leaked secret briefing documents estimated the toll in February had reached between 15,500 and 17,500 killed in the war so far.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of the Wagner paramilitary group, claimed on Tuesday that a Ukrainian commander, Maj Gen Ihor Tantsyura, the head of the country’s territorial defence forces, had been killed on the way to Bakhmut by an artillery strike.

But this was swiftly rejected by Ukraine a few hours later. “We officially deny this statement. We do not comment on any spewing of enemy propaganda. Everyone is alive and well,” a spokesperson for the territorial forces said in a statement given to Ukrainian television.

Earlier, Prigozhin had said Wagner shelling had “destroyed an armoured car” in which Tantsyura “was probably located”. The car was driving from the nearby Ukrainian-held village of Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut, he added.

Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s land forces, said he had visited Bakhmut, where he said “we made a number of necessary decisions aimed at ensuring effective defence and inflicting maximum losses on the enemy”.

In a video of his visit, where he also handed out awards to soldiers, the commander said: “We give our reserves an opportunity to prepare and we are preparing for further actions ourselves.”

Ukraine’s strategy is to inflict heavy losses on Russia as it gradually advances in Bakhmut. The leaked Pentagon documents indicated it had thrown in reinforcements to prevent the city from being encircled while it gradually builds up a force capable of mounting a counterattack as the weather improves.

The same leaked documents said that a war game exercise concluded that Ukraine needs 12 fresh brigades to break through, comprising three of its own and nine trained and kitted out with western Leopard and other tanks, armoured vehicles and other Nato-standard equipment.

It is not clear if the newly formed storm force, which is tasked to assist the regular army, is part of the brigades required or additional reserves. Although formed by the interior ministry, Klymenko said, the force is under control of the defence ministry once deployed.

Force members are all volunteers, comprising a mixture of raw recruits, police, and some veterans of previous fighting with Russia, although to conduct offensive operations a higher degree of training is generally considered necessary.

Russia is also preparing for the next phase of the war, hoping it can prevent Ukraine from any meaningful breakthrough and consolidate its hold on the swathe of territory it has seized in the east and the south.

The defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said Russian arms companies had been told to rapidly increase the “pace and volume of production” and in particular double the output of high-precision missiles. The success of the invasion depends on “timely replenishment”, he said on state television.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-counterattack

Russia is building defenses deep inside its own territory, fearing a sweeping Ukrainian counterattack: UK intel

UK officials on Monday noted extensive Russian defense far from the current front lines.


Some are even behind Russia's own borders, suggesting it is worried about Ukraine attacking there.


Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive, but it isn't clear that could invade Russia, or wants to.


Russia is building defenses hundreds of miles away from its borders with Ukraine, fearing a counteroffensive so sweeping it could push into Russian territory, according to British intelligence.


The UK Ministry of Defence posted an update on Twitter Monday morning, noting the presence of trench networks "well inside internationally recognised Russian territory including in the Belgorod and Kursk regions."

The reason, per the update, was "Russian leaders' deep concern that Ukraine could achieve a major breakthrough."


Anticipation is building around a long-promised counterattack from Ukraine, which has for the past months been building its strength while trying to hold back the grinding advances of the Russian military through winter.


Ukraine's defense minister last week said that the counteroffensive was mostly ready to go. Ukraine has been organizing new brigades and has recently received powerful new weapons from Western allies, including the Leopard, Challenger, and Abrams tanks.


The extra troops and firepower could help achieve a breakthrough in countering the invasion, which has been mostly static for months.


However, a serious effort to invade Russia is beyond what most observers consider feasible for Ukraine, which has far fewer resources than Russia and has been focused on defending its own territory.


Ukraine hasn't made any attempts so far to occupy Russian land, and its stated aim in the war is to restore control over Ukraine's internationally-recognized territory, including the Crimea peninsula, which Russia has held since 2014.


The UK update noted that the defenses far from the front line might be more of a propaganda effort to harden the population's resolve by making them think the Ukrainian military could come close to their homes.


"Some works have likely been ordered by local commanders and civil leaders in attempts to promote the official narrative that Russia is 'threatened' by Ukraine and NATO," the update said.


The UK update noted that Russia has also been fortifying defensive lines inside occupied Ukrainian territory, much closer to the fighting.


Some of those, including the town of Medvedivka in Crimea, have been documented in photographs, including those analyzed in an April 3 article from The Washington Post.

Russia is building defenses deep inside its own territory, fearing a sweeping Ukrainian counterattack: UK intel

Necessity is the mother of invention

Ukrainian engineers 'build DIY missile that can fool Russian air defences'

Ukrainian engineers claim they have designed a “people’s missile” that can be built in an average front garden with almost double the range of the US-supplied Himars rocket.


The missile, which uses the same technology as the German V1, is essentially a motor-powered steel tube attached to a pair of glider wings and fired from a catapult.


The anti-Russian Vidsich protest group behind the design, dubbed Trembita in Ukrainian, says it can be produced cheaply from everyday materials.


A graphic released explaining the technology shows up to three of the rockets fitting inside a one-car garage.


The engineers are confident that people can manufacture the rocket at home


By Vidsich’s own admission, the “garage-made” missile will not be able to strike with the same precision as laser-guided rocket systems.


But in a swarm of 20 missiles, the new weapon will likely be able to “overcome enemy air defences and hit targets at a sufficient depth”, the group claimed.


Early videos of the weapon shared on social media appear to show its makers firing up a crude pulsating jet engine.


The use of gasoline as fuel could thrust the rocket some 140km from launch, the engineers claimed, around double the range of the powerful Himars.


Its warhead could contain a thermobaric charge or a combined 20kg high-explosive charge, capable of creating chaos amongst Russians near the target zone.


The Trembita would produce a thermal signal picked up by enemy air-defence systems, which would then fire expensive munitions to take it down, according to the developers.


“Our simple missile is incomparably cheaper than the shots of enemy anti-aircraft missile systems,” the developers said.

Ukrainian engineers design home-made ‘people’s missile’

Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine CNN —
Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive appears imminent – and the way each side is preparing speaks volumes about their readiness.

Kyiv’s front lines are abuzz with vehicle movement and artillery strikes, with regular explosions hitting vital Russian targets in occupied areas.

Its defense minister has said preparations are “coming to an end” and President Volodymyr Zelensky has assured a counteroffensive “will happen,” while demurring on any exact start date.

It may have already started; it may be weeks away. We don’t know – and that fact is a strong measure of Ukraine’s success as this begins.

Moscow, on the other hand, is in the closing-time bar brawl stage of their war. After losing Kharkiv and Kherson, they have had at least seven months to ready the next likely target of Ukrainian attack: Zaporizhzhia.

That has happened, with vast trench defense networks that can be seen from space. That recognition of their enormity is not necessarily a compliment in 2023. They are big, yes, but they are also something anyone can peruse on Google. That’s not great in an era of precise rockets and speedy armored advances.

But it’s the last 72 hours that have perhaps most betrayed Russia’s lacking readiness.

First, the apparent firing of the deputy defense minister in charge of logistics, Mikhail Mizintsev. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not spelled out his dismissal, merely issuing a decree that Aleksey Kuzmenkov now has his job.

The “Butcher of Mariupol,” as Mizintsev is known, surely had enough failings over Russia’s disastrous war to merit his firing. But this fails to satisfy the question: Why now?

By removing key ministers in the moments before its army faces Ukraine’s counter-assault, Moscow sends a message of disarray.

And then there’s Yevgeny Prigozhin’s new round of criticism. The Wagner mercenary warlord chose Sunday to give another long interview in which he laid bare the sheer extent of the issues his mercenaries face.

According to the Wagner head, his fighters are so low on ammunition that they may have to withdraw from Bakhmut – the strategically unimportant city they have squandered thousands of lives trying to take.

(A caveat: Prigozhin is not the most trustworthy source, and provides little evidence for what he says. But this sort of public spat isn’t something Moscow would encourage at this sensitive moment).
Russia’s eroding ammunition supplies were long known, but to suggest imminent failure just ahead of the counteroffensive smacks of a major bid to shift blame.

The bottom line is, the hours before Ukraine moves are shrinking. The amount we know about their emotional state, or target, is almost zero. And the extent of Moscow’s internal indecision, rivalries and disunity only grows.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/01/europ...hnk/index.html

Russia launches new wave of overnight drone attacks on Ukraine

Russia carried out a wave of drone attacks against Ukraine on the night of May 2–3, Ukraine’s Air Force Command reported.


According to officials, the Russian army launched a total of 26 Iranian-made Shahed drones in various Ukrainian regions, and Ukrainian air defenses managed to down 21 of them. The drones were reportedly launched from Russia’s Bryansk region and from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.


In Kyiv, where the attack was the third in the last six days, air defense forces shot down all of Russia’s drones, according to City Military Administration head Serhiy Popko.


Officials in the Dnipropetrovsk Region reported that seven drones were shot down, but that one of them damaged a government building, sparking a fire. Nobody was injured.


In the Mykolaiv region, a drone hit a private home, causing a fire, though there were no injuries there either. Another drone was shot down in the region, officials reported.


Three drones in the Kirovohrad region targeted an oil depot, according to Governor Andriy Raikovich.


Russia launches new wave of overnight drone attacks on Ukraine — Meduza

Second blast in two days derails freight train in Bryansk

A second explosion in as many days occurred on a railway in Russia’s Bryansk region. Regional governor Alexander Bogomaz reported that an “unidentified explosive device” went off near the Snezhetskaya station. No one was injured, but a locomotive and several freight cars were derailed.

Baza writes that three explosive devices detonated at 7:48 p.m. local time not far from Snezhetskaya station as a freight train travel from Bryansk to Karachev passed by.

State-owned rail company Russian Railways reported “illegal interference with railway transport” in the Bryansk region. A Russian Railways announcement cited by state broadcaster RBC says that the blast derailed an engine and about 20 cars.

On May 1, another explosion derailed a train in the Bryansk region. Governor Bogomaz said the blast had blown up railway tracks on the Bryansk–Unecha section.

Second blast in two days derails freight train in Bryansk — Meduza

Originally Posted by misskit

Russia launches new wave of overnight drone attacks on Ukraine

Most were shot down.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...31804673335297

Ukraine smoked another ruzzian oil/gas refinery in retaliation, or was it just another shaping attack to prep the front for the coming offensive?

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...30394581876737

I wish this fucking "offensive" would start, you've been banging on about it for months now.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I wish this fucking "offensive" would start

Patience. Both Russia and Ukraine offences witll begin soon. In less than a month is my bet.

Originally Posted by Norton

Patience. Both Russia and Ukraine offences witll begin soon. In less than a month is my bet.

But what about their offensives?

The head of Russia's Wagner private military army Yevgeny Prigozhin said Wednesday that he believes Kyiv's counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine has started, warning that the situation for the Russian armed forces "doesn't look the best."


"The enemy has also activated itself beyond the historical borders of Ukraine and Russia. We see the situation in several of our regions [in Russia] – [derailed] trains, drones [launching attacks], and so on. Therefore, I think everything has started. As to when things cross over into the active phase — I think very soon, maybe days,” said Prigozhin.

Ukraine War: Russia Arrests Saboteurs Planning Attacks in Crimea, State Media Says - The Moscow Times

Russian forces shell Kherson, killing 18 and injuring 46

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General reported that the Russian army had shelled Kherson on the morning of May 3. The shelling killed 18 people and injured 46 others, including two children, across the Kherson region.


According to the prosecutor, the Russian troops fired “chaotically” and the shells hit civilian infrastructure, including the local ATB supermarket and the train station. The press service says that the shelling is ongoing.

Russian forces shell Kherson, killing 18 and injuring 46 — Meduza

Originally Posted by Norton

Both Russia and Ukraine offences witll begin soon.

The ruzzians have been on the offensive for months now. It hasn't been going well for them, just in case you failed to notice.



What is about to happen will be all Ukraine.

Putin Ally Vows to Send Troops to Bakhmut to Replace Wagner's Forces

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said Friday he would send troops to fight in Bakhmut if the Wagner Group pulls out of the Ukrainian city.


Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, made the pledge in a statement he posted on his official Telegram channel.


Earlier in the day, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries, announced he would be removing his fighters from Bakhmut on May 10 because of an ammunition shortage. Prior to his announcement, Prigozhin published a video in which he angrily blamed top Russian officials for the deaths of Wagner fighters because his units were not being provided with sufficient ammunition.


In his statement, Kadyrov bemoaned the "unpleasant" fallout between Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. He said it was "doubly unpleasant" that the Defense Ministry doesn't meet with Prigozhin because he "deserves respect for the invaluable contribution" he's made in fighting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's forces since Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022.

MORE Putin Ally Vows to Send Troops to Bakhmut to Replace Wagner's Forces

Bakhmut Bombed to Hell With Incendiary Munitions After Wagner Announcement

Ukraine’s embattled city of Bakhmut was turned into an inferno late Friday as Russian forces reportedly blasted it with incendiary munitions shortly after the Wagner Group announced it would be pulling out. Drone footage shared by the Ukrainian military showed what looked like hell on earth: the city ablaze and engulfed in what was thought to be white phosphorus, a highly toxic chemical that can incinerate all in its path and is banned from use near civilians. The bombardment came shortly after Russia’s notorious Wagner Group announced it would be pulling out on May 10 after failing to take control of the city despite a staggering death toll and several months of fighting. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed Chechen units will be sent in to replace Wagner and fight for control of the city.


VIDEO
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bakhmu...ement?ref=home