Reports indicate that many thousands of protesters left the fortress a day ago. Yet other reports state that many more thousands of protesters are pouring in to Bangkok.

There's a couple of questions raised in my mind by these two apparently conflicting reports. 1. Are the new arrivals all hard core stayers ready to dig in for the big crackdown, or are they just regular protesters? And 2. Did all the protesters who vacated the fortress in the face of an impending crackdown simply go home? Or are they waiting in the wings with the new reinforcements to reappear in another location?

I guess we will have to wait and see how things develop.
There seem to be several conflicting reports and developments.

Aupong has said he wont move against the protesters yet has the army lined up against them.
They way it is going down in my opinion is that Aupong is going to use escalating and proportional force only if the protesters move out of their confined area and retaliate with violence against the police and army trying to suppress their efforts.
Certainly such a situation would result in more than just push and shove with escalating violence into lethal proportions. But still not sure Aupong would be prepared to go in with a mass slaughter via live rounds. Obviously the redshirts are not sure about this either, hence their reason for digging in and failing to advance against overwhelming military force.

But I do think Aupongs main agenda is not so much to rid Bangkok of the redshirt protesters as it is to pick out and pick off the "third hand" snipers and grenade throwers among the redshirts who foiled the last military rout on April 10.
Seh Daengs boys are a real threat to the military, far more so than the redshirt protesters. But highly unlikely that Seh Daengs hit squad is, of has been allowed to remain among the protesters fortress where they would be sitting ducks.

A few different scenarios are likely or possible IMHO, --
1. a prolonged stand off at fortress redshirt ending only when the military cut off supply lines. Eventually, probable.
2. The emergence of a secondary redshirt mass protest at a separate location. Possible and even likely.
3. An attack by the military on the redshirt fortress with hundreds of dead. Unlikely.
4. Terrorist activities by Seh Daeng such as LARGE bombings, political/military assassinations in locations removed from the protesters battlefront. Possible, maybe even likely.
5. Perhaps any combination to varying degrees of all of the above.

I dont really think the PAD will have a great deal of influence in the outcome as their numbers are small and any efforts to stir up more violence will only work in favour of bringing the redshirts cause to the fore.

Just my thoughts as I see it at the current state of play. YMMV.