Leading geneticist Steve Jones says human evolution is over

[jandajoy]

From The Times

October 7, 2008

Leading geneticist Steve Jones says human evolution is over


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This is because cell divisions in males increase with age. “Every time there is a cell division, there is a chance of a mistake, a mutation, an error,” he said. “For a 29-year old father [the mean age of reproduction in the West] there are around 300 divisions between the sperm that made him and the one he passes on – each one with an opportunity to make mistakes.
“For a 50-year-old father, the figure is well over a thousand. A drop in the number of older fathers will thus have a major effect on the rate of mutation.”
Professor Jones added: “In the old days, you would find one powerful man having hundreds of children.” He cites the fecund Moulay Ismail of Morocco, who died in the 18th century, and is reputed to have fathered 888 children. To achieve this feat, Ismail is thought to have copulated with an average of about 1.2 women a day over 60 years.
Another factor is the weakening of natural selection. “In ancient times half our children would have died by the age of 20. Now, in the Western world, 98 per cent of them are surviving to 21.”
Decreasing randomness is another contributing factor. “Humans are 10,000 times more common than we should be, according to the rules of the animal kingdom, and we have agriculture to thank for that. Without farming, the world population would probably have reached half a million by now – about the size of the population of Glasgow.
“Small populations which are isolated can evolve at random as genes are accidentally lost. World-wide, all populations are becoming connected and the opportunity for random change is dwindling. History is made in bed, but nowadays the beds are getting closer together. We are mixing into a glo-bal mass, and the future is brown.”
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[Nawty]

he has not met Noodles and EmpraTurd yet...clearly he is mistaken

[momo8]

Noodles and Tud are the missing links

[tsicar]

Leading geneticist Steve Jones says human evolution is over

SO THAT'S IT, THEN!
...sad for people like the thais who never really had a chance, and still had so far to go, evolution-wise.
poor buggers never had a chance!!!

[jandajoy]

And all the rest.

Estate Agents, Bankers, Politicians....... just to start.

[nidhogg]

This is because cell divisions in males increase with age. “Every time there is a cell division, there is a chance of a mistake, a mutation, an error,” he said. “For a 29-year old father [the mean age of reproduction in the West] there are around 300 divisions between the sperm that made him and the one he passes on – each one with an opportunity to make mistakes.
“For a 50-year-old father, the figure is well over a thousand. A drop in the number of older fathers will thus have a major effect on the rate of mutation.”
Professor Jones added: “In the old days, you would find one powerful man having hundreds of children.” He cites the fecund Moulay Ismail of Morocco, who died in the 18th century, and is reputed to have fathered 888 children. To achieve this feat, Ismail is thought to have copulated with an average of about 1.2 women a day over 60 years.

Apparently a smart bloke - but off his trolley here. That argument just does not hold water. The majority of 'human evolution" occurred when people were lucky to live to 30 -which completely blows his argument away. (and on edit - citing something that happened in the 18 century in an 'evolution" discussion is just purely stupid).

On the natural selection side, he has a wee bit more of a point - but not much more. We do not know how "fitness" in the future will be judged by evolution.

[kingwilly]

links not working to read the whole article. but as far as I can see the headline is wrong, he is just saying the evolution is slowing down (at this current point in time)

and the opportunity for random change is dwindling.

which is perfectly correct.

but most certainly doesnt mean human evolution has stopped.

[jandajoy]

Have you been to Birmingham UK recently?

[nidhogg]

and the opportunity for random change is dwindling.

which is perfectly correct.

Or not I am afraid. Most of the introduction of genetic change comes during recombination events during fertilization - like re-throwing the dice I suppose (the old meiotic recombination for those whose biology is still with them).

The increasing population, and the increasing nearness of that population make individuals who would not previoulsy have mated (due to physical separation) able to mate, and this increases genetic variation, rather than decreasing it.

Add on top of that the increase in environmental mutagens (100 years ago there was not a single molecule of plutonium on earth - now we all have a small reminder of atomic testing!) which will cause increased genetic mutation.

Think the guy needs a new job.

[The Gentleman Scamp]

Ismail is thought to have copulated with an average of about 1.2 women a day

How can you shag one woman and then one fifth of a woman every day????

[momo8]

^ and have 2.5 kids?

[DrivingForce]

and the opportunity for random change is dwindling.

which is perfectly correct.

Or not I am afraid. Most of the introduction of genetic change comes during recombination events during fertilization - like re-throwing the dice I suppose (the old meiotic recombination for those whose biology is still with them).

The increasing population, and the increasing nearness of that population make individuals who would not previoulsy have mated (due to physical separation) able to mate, and this increases genetic variation, rather than decreasing it.

Add on top of that the increase in environmental mutagens (100 years ago there was not a single molecule of plutonium on earth - now we all have a small reminder of atomic testing!) which will cause increased genetic mutation.

Think the guy needs a new job.

don't know if this in your favor or not but I totally agree... actually due to a book i'm currently researching i have gained a ton of insight into this very topic. mankind has still had signs of evolution over the last several centuries that have yet to be entirely eliminated..

most still grow wisdom teeth for example though we haven't needed them for centuries, but they are beginning to become even less a factor as many are not developing them at all..

we no longer require appendix and other bodily organs required in our past or they have gotten smaller or in some cases larger but they are still being produced so evolution has not yet waned entirely..

there is no way of determining in our future what forms of evolution are going to take shape it is just as much a factor determined by our environment and need to survive as anything else..

as man kind relies more and more on technology for example it is conceivable in our future that we may have smaller physical stature and less muscle mass and maybe larger brains instead as we use more thought to solve problems or develop machines to do more tasks for us over the need for us to have more physical strength (that is if we don't have to develop gills and webbed feet first to survive global warming and the rise of the oceans ).

it is also conceivable that maybe physical speech for example and the need for vocal cords may be non existent in our future if we develop such abilities as telepathy to a greater extent..

[HAMILTON]

From The Times

October 7, 2008

Leading geneticist Steve Jones says human evolution is over

This is a very safe prediction to make. Let's face it, how many of us will be around in a few thousand or a few million years time to prove him wrong?

[DrivingForce]

From The Times

October 7, 2008

Leading geneticist Steve Jones says human evolution is over

This is a very safe prediction to make. Let's face it, how many of us will be around in a few thousand or a few million years time to prove him wrong?

good point..... but historical references are being better kept than ever...he'll be exposed eventually for a fool..but long after he's capitalized on his 15 minutes of fame..

[nidhogg]

From The Times

October 7, 2008

Leading geneticist Steve Jones says human evolution is over

This is a very safe prediction to make. Let's face it, how many of us will be around in a few thousand or a few million years time to prove him wrong?

Well - I am keeping my fingers crossed that I will be......

[kingwilly]

actually due to a book i'm currently researching

it is also conceivable that maybe physical speech for example and the need for vocal cords may be non existent in our future if we develop such abilities as telepathy to a greater extent..

*groan*

[cwoww]

Have you been to Birmingham UK recently?

That's devolution.

[kingwilly]

Or not I am afraid. Most of the introduction of genetic change comes during recombination events during fertilization - like re-throwing the dice I suppose (the old meiotic recombination for those whose biology is still with them). The increasing population, and the increasing nearness of that population make individuals who would not previoulsy have mated (due to physical separation) able to mate, and this increases genetic variation, rather than decreasing it. Add on top of that the increase in environmental mutagens (100 years ago there was not a single molecule of plutonium on earth - now we all have a small reminder of atomic testing!) which will cause increased genetic mutation. Think the guy needs a new job.

depends on which mechanism of evolution one ascribes to, punctuated equilibrium or gradual random change...

[nidhogg]

depends on which mechanism of evolution one ascribes to, punctuated equilibrium or gradual random change...

Both my friend. Both.

[kingwilly]

OK sorry, I dont mean that the explanation that you gave depends on the mechanism of evolution.

I'm referrring to the fact that the author may well have been meaning to say that human evolution is currently in a paused stage and that the opportunity for random change is dwindling particularly, without any external environmental pressures to drive such changes.

Add to that the increasing mobility of the human population (thereby reducing another variable required for speciation; isolation of a population) plus increased understanding of medicines and treatments (thus artificially interfering with the best fitness principle) and we can see that the chances for evolution of humans occurring is rather remote indeed.

The title of the OP/news articles may not have been the authors assertion at all.

[Marmite the Dog]

if we develop such abilities as telepathy to a greater extent..

Or at all.

[DrivingForce]

actually due to a book i'm currently researching

it is also conceivable that maybe physical speech for example and the need for vocal cords may be non existent in our future if we develop such abilities as telepathy to a greater extent..

*groan*

your so fekking smart it makes you look like the dimmest bulb in the room.. can't even take care of your own cat scratches, your so inept yet you attempt to judge others based on your own ignorance..paints you as being even more ignorant...

[kingwilly]

your so fekking smart i

oh ok.

I'm wrong then

Humans are going to evolve with their ESP abilities - soon we will have no vocal cords, no hands (telekinise) and no legs. (levitation)

we'll all just be brains sitting in jars of fluid.

[DrivingForce]

OK sorry, I dont mean that the explanation that you gave depends on the mechanism of evolution.

I'm referrring to the fact that the author may well have been meaning to say that human evolution is currently in a paused stage and that the opportunity for random change is dwindling particularly, without any external environmental pressures to drive such changes.

Add to that the increasing mobility of the human population (thereby reducing another variable required for speciation; isolation of a population) plus increased understanding of medicines and treatments (thus artificially interfering with the best fitness principle) and we can see that the chances for evolution of humans occurring is rather remote indeed.

The title of the OP/news articles may not have been the authors assertion at all.

*yawn* It's not a sign of intelligence to be closed minded it's a sign of ignorance. Einstein, Hawking these are intelligent people and the reason they are is because of their ability to think abstractly. you are an example of the opposite, judgemental and closed minded=ignorance..

[DrivingForce]

if we develop such abilities as telepathy to a greater extent..

Or at all.

certainly for many, this skill will never propagate as they have to open themselves up to the possibility first.. but we already have many primitive forms of speechless communication that are based on intuition such as body language for example so it's not out of the realm of reality..quite the opposite..