Thread: Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

Originally Posted by sabang

Ex- General Chavalit resigns, abruptly.
Eastern tigers have a 'show of force'.
Military chief of staff has a meeting with the Generals of the three main 'loyalist' regiments that supported the 2006 coup.

You left out the predecessor event.

Jutaporn, an acknowledged Taksin lackey, makes speech suggesting that the Army killed the UDD protestors in the name of [omitted].
TH.

Originally Posted by sabang

As opposed to Abhisit having British nationality?

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

When asked about her political idols, Sunisa named two former foreign leaders: Russian ex-president Mikhail Gorbachev and British ex-premier Margaret Thatcher. "Gorbachev is credited for bringing peace to the world. He sacrificed his own country for the benefit of the entire world," she said, referring to his political reforms that led to the collapse of the communist Soviet Union. "Thatcher displayed her ability to run the country, while showing great skill in simplifying political messages for easy communication with the people." she said.

Allowing that any one-line summary of a decade-long political leadership is guaranteed to fall short, the idea that Gorbachev (as a motive) "...sacrificed his own country for the benefit of the entire world" is a clanger. Without his reforms, the USSR was headed for chaotic implosion - even more chaotic than what actually happened in the transition to CIS and beyond.

Can't fault her on the limited Thatcher comment - it's undeniably true (much as I loathe the woman and her thinking). That Thatcher's policies and style were very divisive, that she went too far (many say close to "killing the patient") and for too long..... IMO difficult to deny - but that's the start of an essay not a brief response to an "idol" question.

From the blog world.....


Thaksin

Thaksin’s deal with the establishment?

By Bangkok Pundit
Apr 21, 2011 8:00AM UTC

Shawn Crispin last week in Asia Times wrote about an accommodation/deal reached with the establishment – btw, there are some other issues that Crispin raises, but they are best left for another day:

The calm before the proposed polls is the result of a behind-the-scenes accommodation reached late last year between Abhisit’s government and the royal Privy Council on one side and Thaksin’s camp on the other, according to a government aide with regular access to the premier. The first aspects of the multi-faceted deal were brokered in October, around the same time international mediators met with top Thaksin associates and government officials in Bangkok, according to the same insider.

The exact contours of the accommodation are unclear, and its not immediately certain that the international mediation effort, including interlocutions by a former top United States diplomat, were instrumental in the deal. But soon after high-level meetings between known Thaksin allies and international mediators, the string of anonymous bombings across Bangkok and surrounding areas came to an unexplained halt last October.

The bomb attacks commenced soon after a February 2010 Thai court decision to seize US$1.4 billion of $2.3 billion of Thaksin’s personal assets on corruption-related charges during his tenure as premier. Based on analysis of the targets hit, several diplomats and analysts interpreted the bombings as part of a campaign of instability to maintain Thaksin’s negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the government. Thaksin and his top lieutenants have denied responsibility for the attacks, while UDD leaders have consistently blamed them on unnamed dark forces in the military.

At around the time the bombings stopped, the government pulled back its previous vigorous pursuit of Thaksin’s extradition from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where the former premier has resided since fleeing a two-year jail term handed down by a Thai court in August 2008.

Near the end of last year, Abhisit’s government also allowed Thaksin to repatriate a portion of the US$900 million that was not seized in last February’s landmark court decision , according to the insider familiar with the situation. The Ministry of Finance would neither confirm nor deny that Thaksin was allowed access to the funds.

At the same time, the UDD’s post-crackdown rallies in Bangkok have been comparatively tame and highly circumscribed, with events held around once a month and only until dark on weekends under the new leadership of Thida Thavornseth. Abhisit and Thida held what was billed as an impromptu meeting at a Bangkok hotel in mid-December that in retrospect hinted at the wider accommodation that had already been reached.

In late February, seven UDD leaders were released on bail and have since been allowed to continue moderated protest activities.

BP: This is not the first time we have heard about a deal, or as Crispin notes and is probably more accurate an accommodation or arrangement. Crispin on May 8, 2010 in Asia Times:

International mediators worked feverishly behind the scenes when the crisis threatened to spiral into wider civil strife, including the specter of an urban-style insurgency. It’s unclear what role, if any, a Swedish parliamentarian who facilitated previous talks and maintains close contacts with self-exiled former premier and UDD chief patron, Thaksin Shinawatra, played in the pact.

People familiar with one behind-the-scenes channel suggest talks were recently held in a Southeast Asian country that included Thaksin and a senior government representative .

That would seemingly explain Abhisit’s sudden willingness to consider an amnesty for over 200 banned politicians, most formerly in Thaksin’s camp, and amendment to a constitutional article covering election fraud that has dissolved two Thaksin-aligned political parties and now threatens his own Democrat party.

As BP noted in a post on May 10, 2010 the government representative was Bangkok Governor and Deputy Leader of the Democrats Sukhumbhand Paribatra who met Thaksin in Brunei in April. Crispin on June 12, 2010 in Asia Times provided further details:

Skeptics believe that Thaksin’s veiled insurgency threat is for now posturing aimed at enhancing his negotiating leverage vis-a-vis the government. During secret talks between Thaksin and government negotiator Sukhumbhand Paribatra held in mid-April in Brunei, Thaksin lobbied for the return of his diplomatic passport and access to the hundreds of millions of dollars not confiscated by the Supreme Court ruling, according to a government source familiar with the discussions which were organized by a Swedish parliamentarian interlocutor.

(During a June 1 press event in Bangkok, Sukhumbhand would neither confirm nor deny whether the negotiations took place, but diplomats and other international mediators have confirmed that they did. Public recognition of Thaksin’s participation would seemingly undermine his recent disavowals of having any influence over the UDD’s activities.)

BP: Sukhumbahand just said at the time, when he spoke at the FCCT, that he would not do something with the knowledge of the PM. Okay, so BP has quite confident to say that the establishment and Thaksin were talking and one thing that Thaksin wanted was the return of his money that had not been seized. You may remember that the Thai court at the end of February 2010 had seized 46,373,687,454.74 Baht out of the Shinwatra family’s 76,621,603,061.05 Baht seized. This left Thaksin & Co with 30,247,915,606.31 Baht, but at the time this money was not returned immediately so hence negotiations were needed for Thaksin to get this portion of his family’s money back.

Now, there were plenty of stories early last year that small portions of the money was withdrawn,* but Crispin’s article is the first mention in the media that BP has seen that this was in exchange for something – a quid-pro-quo – and that Thaksin has transferred the money overseas (did Thaksin used a different lawyer to arrange the transfer?).

Nevertheless, as Crispin mentions the freed red shirts, the meeting between Abhisit and two red shirt leaders, and together with the changing situation certainly does suggest there does appear to be some arrangement/accommodation in place. However, this arrangement/accommodation does not mean that everyone will be nice to each other as there certainly has been no let-up from some establishment figures, particularly Army C-in-C Prayuth who has gone after all the red shirt leaders over lese majeste.

Also, you have Thaksin’s lawyer trying to take Abhisit to the ICC. Nevertheless, how long will this arrangement/accommodation last? If an election takes place, will both sides respect the election result? Will there be a silent or or an actual military coup? All gloves may be off after the election, that is if we get an election….

* There is some uncertainty over the amount that Thaksin has got back – Crispin states in his article that it was only “a portion of the US$900 million” and well we don’t know whether this was a small portion or a big portion although BP would assume it was a significant amount.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Much of Thailand went into panic mode yesterday when a Thaicom satellite acted up, blackening TV screens and clouding the election mood. The good news is that the transmission problem did not last long and it apparently had nothing to do with political tension. The bad news is that Thais can count on many more nervous days like this to come in the near future.

From Twitter:

tulsathit tulsathit

Some say yesterday's satellite turmoil was not a "coup rehearsal", but a "rehearsal to counter a coup".

9 minutes ago

Whilst it is neither unexpected nor surprising ,

the amount of coup talk IS simply outrageous .

Originally Posted by Mid

Whilst it is neither unexpected nor surprising ,

the amount of coup talk IS simply outrageous .

Indeed, and who are the main protagonists involved in the spreading of this rumour? And who stands to benefit by spreading such gossip??

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

New lengthy piece by Robert Amsterdam, about the elections and the military links to the Democrat's. ....

If we are going to post everything bobbie says, then it seems ok to post what tony has to say as well. At least we know tony doesn't get paid by the word.

TH

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Warning Signs Over Old Siam



Wall Street Journal article signaling uptick in Thai-globalist agenda.
by Tony Cartalucci

Thailand's army has recently been flexing its military might, but to what end? The globalists make their predictable suggestions.

Bangkok, Thailand April 22, 2011 - The Thai armed forces have this week been carrying out a series of military exercises across the country in a show of strength. With one particular exercise taking place in Thailand's capital of Bangkok, one must wonder what sort of security threat requires a mechanized army in the heart of the nation, far from any of its borders?

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) offers up one possible answer in an article written by Pavin Chachavalpongpun of the globalist funded Institute of Southeast Asian Studies* titled "Thailand's Military on the Offensive." Pavin suggests the Thai military is attempting to discredit and intimidate political opponents ahead of an upcoming election, using the threat of a coup and Thailand's lese-majeste law. Lese-majeste, under Article 112 of the Thai Criminal Code includes defaming, insulting or threatening the Thai Royal Family. The WSJ piece suggests that the military "may be exploiting its role as protector of the monarchy to legitimize its own involvement in politics, but in the process it is also further politicizing the institution."

Another possible answer becomes apparent when delving into the military's "political opponents" which the WSJ article only eludes to. What if any threats have they really made against Thailand's long standing, highly revered monarchy and what are their implications in a broader geopolitical context? The WSJ specifically mentions as the military's political opponents the "proxies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra," the billionaire globalist now residing in Dubai as he directs a by-the-book color revolution in the streets of Bangkok.

The cult of Thaksin: through years of socialist handouts and ceaseless propaganda, Thaksin has managed to create a cult ofpersonality around himself, unassailable by even his own misdeeds.

Thaksin, a former adviser to the Carlyle Group, was literally standing in front of the CFR in NYC on the eve of his ousting from power in 2006 via a bloodless military coup. Since 2006, he has been represented by fellow Carlyle man James Baker and his Baker Botts law firm, International Crisis Group's Kenneth Adelman and his Edelman Public Relations firm (also a corporate sponsor of the "color revolution college" Movements.org), Belfer Center adviser Robert Blackwill of Barbour Griffith & Rogers, and now Robert Amsterdam of Amsterdam & Peroff, a major corporate member of the globalist Chatham House.

With Robert Amsterdam concurrently representing Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who likewise was ousted from financial and political power for selling-out his own country, a disturbing pattern is evident. Amsterdam appears to specialize in using embattled Western proxies, portraying them as political victims and leveraging this supposed moral high ground to undermine target regimes. For Amsterdam's client Khodorkovsky, in addition to criminally consolidating Russia's economic resources and preparing to put them under Western receivership, he had also been building a Soros style "Open Russian Foundation" with Henry Kissinger and "Lord" Jacob Rothschild. This foundation aimed at permanently replacing Russia's establishment with the globalists' civil society underlay.

Globalist lawyer Robert Amsterdam using human rights and contrived reports as leverage to undermine the Thai government and bolster the color revolution. Amsterdam also represents Russian criminal billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Thaksin too, after a promising first term in office, began criminally consolidating power and wealth, eventually trying to ramrod through a US-Thai FTA without parliamentary approval. He also meticulously built up a Tammy Hall-style political machine up north which served as the groundwork for what would later become the current red shirt color revolution. Through village funds, socialist handouts, and outright vote buying, Thaksin built a voting bloc that would consistently return him, or any proxy running in his name, to power regardless of their flagrant crimes against both Thailand and humanity, including his drug war which saw over 2,000 people extra-judicially murdered in the streets of Thailand over a 3 month period. Thaksin's supporters, much like the globalist Newsweek magazine, are more than happy to exonerate him, citing the "democratic" strides he made while in office.

As with Khodorkovsky's "Open Russian Foundation," there was a social component to Thaksin's activities aimed at not only undermining Thailand's establishment and culture, but entirely replacing it. This became more than evident after his ousting in 2006 when his red movement's official publications began frequently featuring stories of various historical monarchies being deposed and replaced by alternative systems of governance. Monarchies frequently featured within these publications include the French & Burmese monarchies and the Russian monarchy. It should be noted that each was replaced by a despotic system in many ways more tyrannical than the systems they sought to replace - in France the Emperor Napoleon, in Burma the British Empire, and in Russia the Soviet Union.

From the official publications of Thaksin's "red" color revolution. Anti-Monarchist, pro-Communist propaganda. (click image to enlarge)

Throughout the red shirts' publications other themes include insinuated threats aimed at the monarchy and more recently, calls to emulate uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and perhaps most alarmingly, comparisons made between ousting Qaddafi in Libya and Thailand's current prime minster. Considering that each one of these nations amongst the "Arab Spring" are textbook examples of foreign funded subversion, it is telling and troubling indeed that Thailand's red shirts are standing in open solidarity with them. Red shirt propaganda can be found online as well, including on the National Endowment for Democracy funded Prachatai website.

The red color revolution of Thailand stands in solidarity with US-funded "Arab Spring." The middle scan compares Qaddafiwith Thailand's current prime minster, stating they will both die in their seats of power. (click image to enlarge.) For more red shirt propaganda, please visit 2bangkok.com's
publication archives.

Red shirt intelligentsia Giles "Jai" Ungpakorn gives us further insight into the "alternative system" the red shirt movement under Thaksin plans to usher in. Ungpakorn is a self-confessed Marxist and believes in turning Thailand into a socialist welfare state, expanding on Thaksin's populist policies with the complete redistribution of wealth, and the entire removal of the monarchy from Thai society. He published the "Red Siam Manifesto" within which he enumerates nearly every policy in the globalists' playbook including abortion, environmentalism, and outright communism.

Considering Thaksin's affiliations and his agenda, stated ad nasuem in manifestos and a library's worth of official publications stretching back to 2009, it is quite clear that the Thai military's recent show of strength is not merely attempting to use lese-majeste law to pressure their political opposition. They are responding to a foreign funded, globalist influenced, concerted attempt to remove entirely Thailand's laws, institutions, economic foundation, and even its history and culture. While the WSJ warns the military of possibly politicizing the monarchy by being overprotective, the truth is that Thaksin and his color revolution have already done so long ago in their bid to forcibly transform Thai society.

"We need International Democracy:" Same revolution, different country, different color. The "Arab Spring" is a global gambit.

The threat is very real, as in April 2009, Thaksin's red shirts turned up in the streets of Bangkok, rioting, burning, and destroying property as they heeded their Dubai-based leader's call to rise in revolution. The military was able to disperse the mobs and restore order. Similar street demonstrations and even bloodier violence would play out in Bangkok in April and May of 2010. This time, red shirt leaders made good on their promises to bring in armed militants to wage their "people's war."

300 militants armed with M-79 grenade launchers were admittedly fielded by red shirt leaders. Ensuing battles would kill 7 soldiers in an April 10, 2010 ambush, and ultimately 84 other people through a combination of gun battles, arson, and grenade attacks over the following weeks. However, despite the chaos and widespread damage caused by this second attempted "people's revolution," Thai troops were again able to restore order. While Thailand's 70 million people cringe in anticipation for a third round, recent military exercises may have been a show of readiness and willingness to do their job again.

With uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen all featuring militant components and rogue military officers leading coups, insurrections, and regime change, now admittedly all US-funded and orchestrated, Thailand's recent military show of force may well be aimed at potential dissenters within the their own ranks. Thaksin's political party included retired General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh until he recently and unexpectedly announced his supposed resignation. Thaksin's cousin Chaisit Shinawatra is also a high ranking retired general. Both are still highly influential politically and militarily, with Chaisit just recently giving his blessings to Thaksin's nomination of his own sister to run in his place in upcoming elections.

Whether or not Chavalit or Chaisit would, or could stage an "Arab Spring" style regime change is entirely speculative. There are many other possible candidates, as Thailand is neither militarily nor politically homogeneous, centralized, or for that matter, evenly divided. What is certain is that the political chess pieces are moving rapidly now within Thailand, as globalist eyes watch and hands meddle, including those of George Soros and Zbigniew Brzezinski's International Crisis Group (ICG).

The ICG has recently called for international observers to monitor upcoming elections. Such monitoring, as was the case in Belarus, is ill-advised, as unsatisfactory results for western-backed candidates, coupled with the alleged legitimacy of international monitors, only gives opposition leaders more leverage to escalate their campaigns with calls of "rigged elections." That the ICG has turned its attention toward Thailand as of late is especially troubling, considering its recent role in facilitating regime change in Egypt.

Geopolitical Implications

Thailand of course, constitutes part of China's "String of Pearls." Through destabilizing or instituting regime changes in Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, or even as far as Pakistan, essential links in China's logistical and tactical chains would be compromised or entirely broken. With recent attempts to foster an overtly foreign-backed color revolution against Beijing itself, it is not difficult to believe that similar attempts have or will be made in China's peripheries, just as Western-funded color revolutions have racked Russia's borders since the fall of the Soviet Union, and still threaten to rack republics like Belarus.

Regarding Thailand's strategic importance to China, it possesses the narrow Kra Isthmus that China would like to develop into a Suez/Panama Canal-like project to shorten trips for its oil laden, China-bound tankers. Thailand also serves as an overland conduit, running north and south with a developed rail system connecting Singapore's shipping yards to Laos' capital of Vientiane. China has begun the development of a rail system through Laos and the joint upgrading of Thailand's rail system. Thailand also is one of the world's largest rice exporters, which makes the nation vital to China's future growth and food security.

As with Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and now Yemen, before US funding, backing, and manipulation was publicly admitted and the geopolitical gambit revealed, armies of faithful devotees and propagandists peddling the empty dream of international democracy will argue that Thailand's red shirt movement is somehow different. They will go through great lengths to deny foreign influence, just as the "Arab Spring" tried, and great lengths to maximize the world's scorn toward the regime they seek to replace.

It is essential that we research entirely all aspects of each upcoming conflict, separating our research from attempts made to play against our emotional and cultural prejudices. While many in the West abhor monarchies, Thais have a similar skepticism and distaste towards the circus that is modern "democracy." We must weigh the globalist dystopia attempting to establish itself worldwide against the regional, nationalistic regimes it seeks to replace. It is also essential that we look to ourselves and our community for pragmatic solutions instead of demagogues like Thaksin Shinwatra and his proxy party which offers socialist handouts and political solutions in exchange for your servile dependency on them and ultimately, their globalist paymasters.

*Donations and support for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies can be found on .pfd page 88 of their annual report.

Posted by Land Destroyer

Originally Posted by sabang

Ex- General Chavalit resigns, abruptly.
Eastern tigers have a 'show of force'.
Military chief of staff has a meeting with the Generals of the three main 'loyalist' regiments that supported the 2006 coup.

An interesting few days. It must be comforting then that General Chan recently solemnly assured the people of Thailand that there would be no military coup.

Certainly the clash on the Cambodian border today put the military show of force in a new light....

There's nothing like a bit of war to gird the nationalistic loins.

There may (or may not) still be a coup, but a war has always been good for the incumbent administration around elections (well, most of the time, there are of course exceptions to this...).

There's more than one way to skin a cat

^^ TH, agree...and while we are getting opinions from all sides...here's another...

Originally Posted by Thaihome

Tony Cartalucci

Tony Cartalucci has written prolifically on the political turmoil in Thailand.

His writing focuses on the International dimension; the foreign interference in Thailand.

While there is no doubt that no nation is an island and foreign groups with their own agendas interfere in all nations for their own personal ends, Tony has been very selective in which foreign groups he writes on, what their intentions are and who they work with in Thailand.

I write now to expose some of the glaring omissions he has purposefully made and encourage you to ask;

What groups does this foreigner in Thailand belong to and what is his agenda?

Just a Lousy Journalist? | Prachatai English

2B Situation Report: The Crusade to Minimize Thaksin | 2Bangkok.com

2B Situation Report: The Crusade to Minimize Thaksin

Posted on April 22, 2011 by admin

(Photo: 2Bangkok.com)
Above: This billboard suddenly appeared during the day of February 27, 2008. It reads: Welcome home, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. From Bangkokians.

2B Situation Report: The Crusade to Minimize Thaksin

There has long been an attempt to manipulate the political situation to minimize Thaksin influence—but it will likely not involve “tanks on the street” as in a traditional coup. “Soft pressure” from the establishment is the sort of pressure that created and holds together the present coalition government.

The Plan of the Establishment

It is important to understand what the establishment is trying to accomplish–stall and isolate Thaksin. While the continued stalemate and Thaksin’s tenacity have led to broader discussions of reforming the Thai system and ignited populist measures for the poor, in the corridors of power everything is driven by the immediate goal to stall Thaksin and make it clear he cannot return to rule. His continual infusion of money, agitation and revolution from abroad are seen as the underlying causes of the recent years of unrest. The Red Shirt attempts to paralyze the capital and overthrow the government on the street clearly demonstrated Thaksin’s resolve and the lengths to which he is willing to go. Couple this with [redacted] and many in the establishment feel it is key to thwart Thaksin from returning to the system at any cost. Pardons and reforms for everyone else are still on the table.

The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) was once doing just that—opposing Thaksin and his creeping one-man rule—but have now morphed into several factions with competing and Quixotic dreams of fixing the entire Thai political system. However, this is a goal that no one group can accomplish. The Thai system and world is too amorphous and broadly balanced for any one group to fundamentally change the way things work.

Focusing on New Elections

It appears that all sides are intently focusing on the opportunity of new elections. The earlier questions over whether another season of street protests to cause the government to collapse will be called has been answered. Instead, Red Shirts are gathering to listen to speeches insisting they turn out the vote for the Peau Thai.

There are still several ways in which things can still go bad. One is if Peau Thai fragments too much before the election and erodes Thaksin’s chances of influencing a new government. In such a case it could lead to Thaksin turning to the Red Shirts again to cause trouble on the streets. However, Thaksin has been able to hold his MPs together so far and it seems that Thaksin sees various and ever evolving ways he could put together a coalition—or at least plausibly call foul if Peau Thai is excluded from the next government. So for now it is all about elections.

Another variable might be a traditional coup, but this is an outside possibility. The military have no desire for direct rule as long as they are certain of moving behind-the-scenes to block a Thaksin landslide. A traditional coup before the election would indicate military desperation at a lack of options which does not seem the situation at this time.

In most instances, reports of an upcoming “coup” should be understood as a “silent” coup or interference from a “third hand.” These are both common Thai concepts and are what the Red Shirts and Peau Thai have largely been complaining about when they warn about a coup. They mean a behind-the-scenes manipulation that blocks Peau Thai (and hence Thaksin) from power.


Waiting for the Jackpot – from Manager, March 29, 2011
The words on the sign: The PM is sleeping and waiting for the jackpot.
Chavolit and Mingkwan lay on the ground with mouths open, hoping for fruit, or the good luck of having Thaksin name them the Peau Thai PM candidate, fall into their mouths.
Mingkwan sees Purachai Piemsomboon set up a blanket to lay under the tree too and says Purachai’s nickname: Pu!?
At right Purachai says: Let me be the other one [to wait]

Choosing a Peau Thai PM Candidate

The establishment is betting that political figures once relegated to political retirement by Thaksin will see an opportunity to once again taste power on their own terms. During elections they might make noises about Thaksin’s agenda, but nothing will ever happen once they are in power. It is thought that these figures have no real desire to first gain power and then bring Thaksin back to take over their positions.

This is why Thaksin has had to be so careful about appointing leaders for the (non defunct) People Power Party and the Peau Thai Party. Leaders either have to be weak political nonentities who do not have their own factions or family members who can be counted on not to betray him. The danger of having ambitious men like Chalerm at the helm of Peau Thai would mean the party would swiftly spin out of Thaksin’s control.

Just to note that controlling a government is the ultimate prize and ultimate source of power on the ground. A sitting government effectively controls the police, the courts and thus the pace and character of justice. They control the purse strings and spoils of power. The military, bureaucracy, and monarchy function as informal checks and balances on the Thai political system. The government cannot trod on these institutions without repercussions, but if they balance things right, they can be a font of money, policies and policy enforcement that gives them real power.

Possible Election Outcomes

In previous years, each Democrat government seemed to generate public weariness over their slow and nearly static performance. This led to public dissatisfaction and a switch to voting for more dynamic, but more corrupt politicians—like the governments of Chavolit and Banharn in the 1990s. The public soon wearied of these governments as well and would shift back to the Democrats which are then seen as a more professional and upstanding in comparison.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, we are at the end of a cycle in which the public may again feel weary of the deliberate and cautious plodding of Democrat policies. This feeling could be heightened in the face of big promises by the Peau Thai. The Democrats have further been hit by corruption and unrelenting flooding in various areas of the country. They have been mercilessly pilloried as dictatorial murderers by the Red Shirts.

Despite the events of the past years when the Red Shirts, buoyed by the Peau Thai, tried to overthrown the government on the street, by and large their base appears faithful. Thais are pragmatic and forgiving (no one is ever really finished in Thai politics no matter what they do) and even after the events of past years, if the Peau Thai can promise prosperity, they stand a good chance of election success.

Where exactly the election lands exactly is anyone’s guess. There is still a period of time during which major developments in party formation or disintegration can occur. However, despite the intense behind-the-scenes enticements on both sides, MP buying and vote buying can only go so far. No matter what the scenario, the Democrats and Peau Thai appear to be poised to be the first and second parties in terms of MPs in one order or another.

Establishment hopes are being pinned on a solution that re-focuses political parties on their own goals and thus minimizes and isolates Thaksin. Thaksin will be pre-loading the local and international press with information to the effect that, if Peau Thai does not prevail, this indicates that the elections were manipulated and illegitimate.

The election outcomes boil down to a few problematic scenarios.

One likely outcome is that a ruling government will be cobbled together that somehow includes Peau Thai, but in a way that the party cannot dominate. This would cause a weak and unstable government grouping as Peau Thai seeks to exert itself.

Another scenario is that Peau Thai wins many seats, but other parties unite to form a government instead. If a government like this is formed or if a unity government is pushed together by the military to mute the Peau Thai, then Thaksin will once again call the Red Shirts onto the streets with calls of unfairness. This scenario is already acknowledged by the Peau Thai and has resulted in threats that chaos would ensue if Peau Thai wins a majority, but is blocked from forming a government.

Top brass on Channel 3, October, 2008

It remains unlikely that the military would allow a Thaksin-controlled party to control the government outright. The preferred solution is to block and stall Thaksin in every way so a traditional coup is not necessary.

Equally important is merely the perception that the military will not allow Peau Thai to govern again as a Thaksin proxy. The public musterings of troops in the last few days are meant to drive home this point (as well as revealing the extreme military reluctance in staging a traditional, “tanks on the street” coup–as in the “coup via TV” in 2008).

Peau Thai realization that they can never hold power is meant to encourage their MPs and factions to gravitate towards groupings that allow them to be part of a government in the future. The danger that Peau Thai might be mired down in legal cases along with the Red Shirts resulting in disbandment is also being used to scare MPs from the party.

However, any election result that does not result in a government Thaksin can control to effect a pardon means that the Red Shirts once again will be called onto the streets to topple to government. The establishment hope is the Peau Thai becomes too fragmented, small, or removed from Thaksin control so it can be part of the government. With a diminished Peau Thai in the government, it would make it much harder to use the Red Shirts to claim unfairness and stymie Thaksin’s goals for a pardon for himself.


Cat lover? – Arun, Krungtepturakit, April 4, 2008
Loves the cat or does not want the cat to get the fish – The tag on the cage reads “Commander-in-Chief” meaning C-in-C Anupong. [This cartoon points out the close relationship Samak is creating with the C-in-C--ostensibly to forestall a military coup. Samak, a well-known cat lover, keeps the C-in-C close to him either because he likes cat or he "does not want the cat to get the fish." This is an idiomatic expression that means "refuse to give away something that one does not have the right to have" perhaps meaning Samak does not deserve the premiership as a proxy of Thaksin and he does not want to let this slip away to the cat through a coup.]

Replacing the Commander-in-Chief

One scenario sometimes mentioned is, if a Thaksin-directed Peau Thai gains power somehow, there could be a preemptive coup if the Commander-in-Chief fears he might be replaced with a Thaksin loyalist. In 1991, the military staged a coup when it believed that the government was planning such a firing—and at that time the issues dividing the government and military were only prosaic power politics and competing business concerns.

Despite all the press this scenario has received, it is probably a non-issue. Previous Thaksin-proxy governments have been savvy and have done everything they could to cozy up to the Commander-in-Chief. Both the Samak and Somchai governments in 2008 made it a top priority to cultivate good relations with the military.

While Prayuth is a different animal than previous Commander-in-Chiefs (both as an anti-Thaksin foe and as one not hesitant to act in the face of provocations), he would probably be courted in many ways by a Thaksin government. If a Peau Thai government tiptoes gently, they could enjoy civil relations with the military as it has in the past.

Pardons and Amnesty

In the Thai world, pardons usually cover victims and perpetrators equally with the goals of reconciliation and harmony placed above justice. A dissatisfied Thai person is expected to resort to violence as a symbol of their dissatisfaction so it is thought key that pardons cover all and that no blame is assigned. To the Western world Thai pardons can seem unfair, but they have served to reunite Thai society in the past—notably after the events of Black May in 1992.

The sticking point here is that, [redacted] When the opposition brings up these sentiments, it strikes at the heart of the carefully constructed public image and serves as a warning to the establishment that if Thaksin’s goals are opposed, [redacted]

[redacted] Possible pardons or amnesty would be modeled to achieve the isolation of Thaksin as his past conviction would stand and mean he would have to remain outside the country to avoid incarceration.

There have long been rumors that a grand plan is on offer in the background—a deal to pardon most or all infractions in recent years along with a return of money to Thaksin—all in an effort for politics to regain a firm footing [redacted]. However, it appears Thaksin is taking a hard line and betting he can have it all back on his terms.

The next challenge is when the five year ban ends for banned Thai Rak Thai politicians in 2012—this mean another crop of ambitious political figures will be on the loose. The question then will be if these men and women will once again hook their wagons to Thaksin or head off into other factions. It is certain that the background whispers will be that pardons may be fine and that running on Thaksin’s populism may be ok, but Thaksin himself can never return.

Some interesting Youtube comments written by someone calling themselves 'Mao' bellow that video. I wonder if it's Chairman Mao from TD? Interesting.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

There may (or may not) still be a coup

Thanks for the insight.

Originally Posted by Mid

Originally Posted by Thaihome

Tony Cartalucci

Tony Cartalucci has written prolifically on the political turmoil in Thailand.

His writing focuses on the International dimension; the foreign interference in Thailand.

While there is no doubt that no nation is an island and foreign groups with their own agendas interfere in all nations for their own personal ends, Tony has been very selective in which foreign groups he writes on, what their intentions are and who they work with in Thailand.

I write now to expose some of the glaring omissions he has purposefully made and encourage you to ask;

What groups does this foreigner in Thailand belong to and what is his agenda?

Just a Lousy Journalist? | Prachatai English

Thanks Mid,

Tony has already responded to that.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Over the Target



And catching flak.
by Tony Cartalucci

If you aren't catching flak, you aren't over the target. Wear
your enemy's attacks like a badge of honor.

Bangkok, Thailand April 20, 2011 - You know you're message is getting out there when National Endowment for Democracy funded "independent media" outlets are writing hit pieces on you. The article titled, "Just a Lousy Journalist?," featured on Thailand's NED funded Prachatai propaganda clearinghouse makes numerous claims about Land Destroyer's journalistic integrity and in particular, states that globalist connections within the current Thai government are never mentioned.

Screenshot from NED's official website listing Prachatai as a recipient
of 1.5 million baht, or 50,000 USD as of 2009. (Click to enlarge.)


Prachatai nominated in 2011 for a Bobs Award by Freedom House,
chaired by Kenneth Adelman, a former lobbyist for Thaksin Shinwatra.

Of course this, like the entire hit piece, and most of the articles featured on "Prachatai," strays woefully far from the truth. The proof is irrefutable. In an August 25, 2010 Land Destroyer article titled, "Asian Economic Community by 2015," nearly every "glaring omission" Gerrard Winstanley's article accuses Land Destroyer of skipping past can be found there within:

Land Destroyer covered Mechai Viravaidya...

" from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation."

and Surin Pitsuwan...

"The current ASEAN secretary general, Surin Pitsuwan of Thailand, leads the current efforts to implement the AEC 2015 blueprint. Pitsuwan sits as a Member of the Board of Trustees of the globalist Asian Foundation, funded by amongst many others, Boeing, Chevron, The Ford Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Halliburton, Raytheon Company, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. He joined the Rockefeller Foundation's Board of Trustees in 2010. He also sat on the Council on Foreign Relations' (CFR) International Advisory Board as of 2009, and even gave a talk before the CFR on May 14, 2008, regarding a "one unified Southeast Asia."

To say Surin Pitsuwan is a "classically trained" globalists is an understatement. However, despite his background and the stated intentions of the ASEAN AEC, progress has been admittedly slow, so slow that some in the Council on Foreign Relations are "skeptical that ASEAN will be quite so central to the future of East Asian regionalism.""

A NED funded "media organization" attack: a badge of honor, the
message is getting out there, forcing a reaction. (Click to enlarge.)

and the globalist implications amongst the ruling government.

And perhaps the coup de grace comes from a December 10, 2010 Land Destroyer article titled, "Thailand: Stage Set for Another Color Revolution," where the article concludes:

"And while dangers exist within the current Thai government of a slower integration into the globalist collective, the immediate most unhinging threat is a third attempt at reinstalling Thaksin Shinwatra into power on the back of a violent "people's army." What is most unsettling of all, is that the latter is providing a distracting cover for the former. "

The Prachatai hit piece continues with Wikileaks reports citing unverified third hand conversations along with similarly sophomoric arguments, including one where Mr. Winstanely claims journalist Micheal Yon's American citizenship and his one off-hand comment to a protester telling him to go home indicates America's foreign policy clearly being against the red shirts. If this is indicative of what Prachatai passes as 'fit to print' we can be sure they, and the "red shirts" they defend on a daily basis, are less than genuine in their cause and their methods.

Conclusion

We will not and should not wait for an apology from an "independent media" organization that uses US tax money to fund ad hominem attacks on the other side of the world. Instead, we should wear these feckless attacks as a badge of honor, because if you aren't catching flak, you aren't over the target.

Do not let these disingenuous liars intimidate you, certainly do not let their attacks unnerve or unhinge you, instead let their malevolence toward you encourage you to bring your work to the next level of professionalism, excellence, and truth. The more rabid their attacks become the deeper they undermine their own agenda and expose their true aims for all to see.

For all of Land Destroyer's reports on Thailand, please see the Thailand page.

Posted by Land Destroyer

Originally Posted by Mid

Originally Posted by Thaihome

Tony Cartalucci

Tony Cartalucci has written prolifically on the political turmoil in Thailand.

His writing focuses on the International dimension; the foreign interference in Thailand.

While there is no doubt that no nation is an island and foreign groups with their own agendas interfere in all nations for their own personal ends, Tony has been very selective in which foreign groups he writes on, what their intentions are and who they work with in Thailand.

I write now to expose some of the glaring omissions he has purposefully made and encourage you to ask;

What groups does this foreigner in Thailand belong to and what is his agenda?

Just a Lousy Journalist? | Prachatai English

A piece written by Gerrard Winstanley

Any idea who he is? Google doesn't reveal much.

I presume he isn't the long dead communist from the 1600's.

^Some interesting exchange of comments on Prachatai

#19546 - by Jimmy P. (visitor) (58.8.161.110 58.8.161.110, 58.8.161.110) | Thu, 21/04/2011 - 01:29
Actually, Gerrard, he makes a

Actually, Gerrard, he makes a better case against them than you do. You seem like you can't even read or write, or even think. Or even use the search box he has on his blog to make sure he hasn't written on the subjects you yourself claim he hasn't. And you think making your point on a US funded website like Prachatai makes your case stronger? Or weaker? lol ... Prachatai doesn't make it a secret they are pro-red shirt. So don't you think you've roamed a little far from being objective yourself? At least Cartalucii has his own blog and isn't submitting his articles to PAD. And judging from what he said about Surin Pitsuwan or Mechai, I don't think he really trusts or likes them.
Sounds like you are grinding a personal axe. Very unprofessional, very unprofessional to comment on your own article, and very unprofessional for Prachatai to publish nonsense like this without doing even basic fact checks to avoid making themselves look foolish (more foolish?).

Response:
#19567 - by Gerrard (visitor)
(Thai) Land Destroyer continues to write deceptively on Thailand. It has become clear that their is a high probability they are an American intelligence outfit based in Thailand, the hub of South east Asia, most probably funded and supported by elements of the current regime. A high proportion of their reports provide accurate information on geopolitics in other parts of the world. This gives them legitimacy and allows them to be published on popular and genuine news websites such as infowars.com and activistpost.com . It is with this legitimacy that they can then slip their anti-democratic propaganda against Thais who are calling for an end to coups and military rule.
In their latest attack, 'Warning Signs Over Old Siam ', written in response to 'Tony Cartalucci; The Nail in the Coffin?', they have been forced to address Article 112 and the massacre of last year. In it they defend Article 112 and state their belief that it is justified for a government to use it's military against it's own people. They were also forced to cover the numbers of people killed last year and, unsurprisingly, try to absolve the Thai military of any involvement in the deaths. They also continue their insults against the impoverished people of Northern Thailand.


Maybe when TS wakes up, he can give the definite word on who is the tool of the US intelligence network.

TH

^Some interesting exchange of comments on Prachatai

#19546 - by Jimmy P. (visitor) (58.8.161.110 58.8.161.110, 58.8.161.110) | Thu, 21/04/2011 - 01:29
Actually, Gerrard, he makes a

Actually, Gerrard, he makes a better case against them than you do. You seem like you can't even read or write, or even think. Or even use the search box he has on his blog to make sure he hasn't written on the subjects you yourself claim he hasn't. And you think making your point on a US funded website like Prachatai makes your case stronger? Or weaker? lol ... Prachatai doesn't make it a secret they are pro-red shirt. So don't you think you've roamed a little far from being objective yourself? At least Cartalucii has his own blog and isn't submitting his articles to PAD. And judging from what he said about Surin Pitsuwan or Mechai, I don't think he really trusts or likes them.
Sounds like you are grinding a personal axe. Very unprofessional, very unprofessional to comment on your own article, and very unprofessional for Prachatai to publish nonsense like this without doing even basic fact checks to avoid making themselves look foolish (more foolish?).

Response:
#19567 - by Gerrard (visitor)
(Thai) Land Destroyer continues to write deceptively on Thailand. It has become clear that their is a high probability they are an American intelligence outfit based in Thailand, the hub of South east Asia, most probably funded and supported by elements of the current regime. A high proportion of their reports provide accurate information on geopolitics in other parts of the world. This gives them legitimacy and allows them to be published on popular and genuine news websites such as infowars.com and activistpost.com . It is with this legitimacy that they can then slip their anti-democratic propaganda against Thais who are calling for an end to coups and military rule.
In their latest attack, 'Warning Signs Over Old Siam ', written in response to 'Tony Cartalucci; The Nail in the Coffin?', they have been forced to address Article 112 and the massacre of last year. In it they defend Article 112 and state their belief that it is justified for a government to use it's military against it's own people. They were also forced to cover the numbers of people killed last year and, unsurprisingly, try to absolve the Thai military of any involvement in the deaths. They also continue their insults against the impoverished people of Northern Thailand.


Maybe when TS wakes up, he can give the definite word on which side the tool of the US intelligence network.

TH

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Originally Posted by Mid

Whilst it is neither unexpected nor surprising ,

the amount of coup talk IS simply outrageous .

Indeed, and who are the main protagonists involved in the spreading of this rumour? And who stands to benefit by spreading such gossip??

Quite agree. The idea of a military coup in Thailand is outrageous.

I mean, when was the last time they had one after assurances from the military that such a thing was out of the question. Or the time before that, or the time before that, or the time before that etc...?

The military arm of the oligarchy would only mount another coup if their choice of government looks like being defeated through the democratic process. And to do that they need some kind of a trigger to justify their actions, such as some kind of a political deadlock or crisis. That trigger hasnt become evident just yet. Meanwhile the judicial arm of the oligarchy is taking care of the opposition leaders through the more socially acceptable process of politically biased and corrupt rulings. The two arms of the ruling class oligarchy work in concert with the courts setting up the conditions for a military takeover when necessary.

The Thai judicary is certainly doing its best to inflame the political situation with is blatantly, politically biased rulings against the opposition leaders at present. All we need is a flare up in protest of their corrupt activities and the whole deal will be off with the military once again moving in to quell the disturbance and restore order.

Originally Posted by Mid

Whilst it is neither unexpected nor surprising ,

the amount of coup talk IS simply outrageous .

Yes it is. Apart from the obvious groups using the actual "c" word (some UDD-associated figures, some politicians and much of the media), we also have this week's "readiness exercises" performed by the 1st and 2nd Divisions on consecutive days which, even given the most charitable interpretation possible, could only be described as sending out an at best ambiguous message. While notionally a forceful declaration of support for the Army chief (why should that even be necessary one wonders?), the other sabre-rattling "watch out" message was plainly not lost on commentators. I saw mention that one officer even specified to Channel 3 that his division could deploy to Bangkok within three hours of the order being given. To defend against what? Presumably not a Cambodian parachute drop on the capital or amphibious assault up the Chao Praya?

There are many who have an interest in keeping the talk of coup risk alive and well - and simmering. The benefits to UDD are apparent - but then so are the benefits to the Thai military; after all, they're not known for hiding their light under a bushel. Arguably there are also benefits to the current regime - as in "Look what you're likely to get if you don't put us in the driving seat - even if our backseat 'passengers' are all dressed in green.....".

Bangkok Post : Puea Thai unveils some candidates

Breakingnews >

• Published: 22/04/2011 at 05:45 PM
• Online news:

Puea Thai has unveiled some new candidates for the coming general election and the party says it will officially present its policies to the public on Saturday.

Puea Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit on Friday introduced new candidates to run up to the general at the party headquarters.

They include Polphum Wipatphumprathes, a candidate for Khan Na Yao district, Jirayu Huangsap (Khlong Sam Wa district), ML Natthapol Devakula (Bang Rak, Sathon and Pathumwan) and Thirarat Samretwanich (Lat Krabang district.

Mr Yongyuth said Puea Thai plans to take a constructive approach to politics and is loyal to the monarchy.

Puea Thai MP for Chiang Mai Jullapan Amornwiwat said the party will unveil its new policies with the slogan ``Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai acts''.

Mr Jullapan said if Puea Thai becomes government, one of its priorities will be to resolve economic problems, the high cost of living and ensure the country's economy is in better shape than two years ago.

After the unveiling of the new candidates, Puea Thai MPs led by Mr Yongyuth and Yingluck Shinawatra, youngest sister of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's de facto leader, visited Pol Gen Pracha Promnok, former leader of Puea Pandin Party, at his house on Vibhavadi road to ask him to join Puea Thai.

Puea Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said Pol Gen Pracha accepted the invitation to work with Puea Thai and he will be welcomed at a meeting to unveil the party's policies at Thammasat University's Rangsit Campus tomorrow.

Bangkok Post : New electorate boundaries set

Breakingnews >

• Published: 22/04/2011 at 06:19 PM
• Online news:

The Election Commission has finished defining the boundaries of all 375 new constituencies in all 77 provinces in line with the amended constitution, EC secretary-general Suthipol Taweechaikarn said on Friday.

Under the amended constitution there are 375 single-MP constituencies throughout the country.

There are seven provinces which have only one constituency each. They are Nakhon Nayok, Trat, Phangnga, Mae Hong Son, Ranong, Samut Songkhram and Sing Buri.

The new constituencies will take effect after being published in the Royal Gazette, Mr Suthipol said.

The EC on Friday afternoon held a meeting with representatives of agencies involved in organising the general - including the Royal Thai Police Office, the Education, Interior and Labour ministries and the Royal Thai Armed Forces Command to ensure preparedness.

there was a large military convoy on the Highway this week,

not sure if related