Thread: Thailand : PM to Decide on House Dissolution in 4 Months

Excerpt from the final (3rd) part of Andrew Spooner's interview with Finance Minister Korn:


Exclusive – Thai Finance Minister Korn on his being PM: “We’ll see what happens” | Asian Correspondent

[AS] With hindsight, going back to 2008, and given the legitimacy questions that have plagued this government, regardless of whether the government think these questions are valid or not…

[Korn] Look, legitimate or not, we didn’t win the election.

Well, yes, but going back to my hindsight question, do you think Thai democracy would’ve been served better if the Democrats had formed a very effective hard-hitting opposition to the Thaksin-led political project rather than taking power in the way that you did?

[Laughing] Kind of academic, huh?

Yes, but this is an important question. You’ve talked about competition and checks and balances so aren’t oppositions as important to functioning democracies as the party that takes power?

But when an opposition becomes really strong they can become a government which is kind of what happened.

But not through a general election.

There was an election of the Prime Minister in parliament which is not as good. That’s why, personally, I want an election as soon as is possible. Not just because of these legitimacy issues, to be honest with you, but we’re at the tail-end of a term and there are so many things from a reform perspective that I want to do, that frankly, are not doable pre-election. I just want to get it over with so that we can actually come back and do these reforms.

That’s if you win.

Yes. But if we don’t win we will be harrying the government in opposition. Look, Pheua Thai have never formed that effective an opposition in parliament. They have no real leader and no shadow cabinet. It is a real shame actually and they never seem to have gotten over the fact they lost power. Nonetheless I have been saying to investors and others that I hope that the forthcoming election is a chance to reboot Thai democracy. There is every reason why, whoever wins, that this system will have a good chance of getting back on an even keel.

..........

[rest of this interesting interview at the link above]

BANGKOK, March 6 -- Faced by several problems ranging from political conflicts to rising inflation in Thailand, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Sunday that some ill-intentioned elements do not want a general election to be held in the country, which he wants organised later this year.

PM: Some Elements Don


"All the talk about pathiwat [coup d'etat or revolution]; if you want to do it, please do. I don't want another election. The past four years have been exhausting. I sympathise with all the officials of the EC [Election Commission]. Everyone has worked so hard."

Those were the words of commissioner Sodsri Satayathum, speaking at a seminar to Election Commission officials. Given that there's no distinction in the Thai language between ''coup d'etat'' and ''revolution'', many thought she was inviting the former.

How could the election commissioner say such a thing?

Last Wednesday, I had a sit-down with Mrs Sodsri and asked her to clarify. She stood by her words. She said she doesn't want an election; the country isn't ready for an election and an election is not the solution.

Given the political and social upheaval, the rising price of goods, and all of the country's other woes, an election could create a situation that Mrs Sodsri believes may pave the way for a mass uprising.

She did clarify that she wasn't referring to a coup d'etat, but a revolution ''from below''.

''Like in North Africa?'' I asked.

''Like in North Africa,'' she said, adding, ''This is just my opinion. I'm not speaking for the Election Commission.''


Bangkok Post : The dark night of Thai democracy

Former prime minister Banharn Silapa-archa yesterday expressed his disagreement to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's announcement on Friday that he would seek House dissolution in May.

snip

Chart Thai Pattana yesterday held a fund-raising event at Muang Thong Thani, which was expected to raise Bt50 million.

Situation is still not good: Banharn

A couple more posts today from The Bangkok Post on the election. I don't think there's much new in either...here they are...

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/poli...s-for-election

PM pushes to expedite organic bills for election

• Published: 13/03/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

-----

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/poli...ll-about-money

The big issue it's all about money

• Published: 13/03/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...want-democracy

Poll: Most want democracy

• Published: 13/03/2011 at 11:44 AM
• Online news:

A total of 96 per cent of respondents said they wanted Democracy and only four per cent of them preferred a military coup, Abac Poll said on Friday.

Abac Poll at the Assumption University conducted an opinion survey on Thai people’s decision when they have to decide from March 10 to 12.

It sought opinions from 2,113 people in Bangkok, Phichit, Petchabun, Chiang Mai, Chantaburi, Kanchanaburi, Suphan Buri, Chonburi, Nong Khai, Sakol Nakhon, Surin, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Nakhon Ratchasima, Chumphon, Narathiwat and Songkhla.

Asked which political party they would vote for if the election took place today, 58.6 per cent of the respondents said they would not choose any party as they were looking for a better one.

A total of 17.5 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat, 16.2 per cent of them would support Puea Thai and 7.7 per cent were for other parties.

<snip>

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/loca...early-election

PM confirms an early election

• Published: 13/03/2011 at 10:41 AM
• Online news:

The government will certainly dissolve the House of Representatives during the first week of May, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in his “Confidence in Thailand with PM Abhisit" weekly programme on NBT on Sunday morning.

“It’s the time to return the power to people so they can make the decision on the country’s future,” Mr Abhisit said.

<snip>

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

“It’s the time to return the power to people so they can make the decision on the country’s future,” Mr Abhisit said.

he must be pretty fed up with all the internal BS to say that,

I bet he can't wait to get out,

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Asked which political party they would vote for if the election took place today, 58.6 per cent of the respondents said they would not choose any party as they were looking for a better one.

A total of 17.5 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Democrat, 16.2 per cent of them would support Puea Thai and 7.7 per cent were for other parties.

interesting to see than I am not alone in thinking that both the dem's and PT have no legitimate place in the future of thailand. I'm just so glad that this cleaning up this mess is nothing to do with me. because I cannot see a way forward and out of this mess.

Originally Posted by DrB0b

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

PM pushes to expedite organic bills for election

Not a comment but when I first came to Thailand and they kept waffling on about "Organic Laws" I had no idea what that meant. For anybody here who doesn't know an "Organic" law or bill is one that affects the fundamental legal foundations of a government or a nation. The fact that Thailand keeps harping on about and/or changing "organic" laws is a sure sign of instability. The classic "Organic Law" is a constitution. Apologies if people here already knew that, I certainly didn't when I first got here.

I think that “organic law” rather then a constitution itself means the laws below that actually sets out the specific rules (and punishments for breaking them) for specific activities/organizations setup by the constitutions.

Both the 1997 and 2007 constitutions specified that there will be certain “organic laws” (the list is the same in both) on :
Organic Act on the Election of Members of the House
of Representatives and the Acquisition of Senators;
Organic Act on the Election Commission;
Organic Act on Political Parties;
Organic Act on Referendum;
Organic Act on Procedure of the Constitutional Court;
Organic Act on Criminal Procedure for Persons
Holding Political Positions;
Organic Act on Ombudsmen;
Organic Act on Counter Corruption;
Organic Act on State Audit.

Since the recent amendment changed how MP’s are elected it wouldl make since that you need to change the Organic Act on the Election of Members of the House
of Representatives and the Acquisition of Senators in order to have that conform with what the constitution now says. At one time, it was floated that the Election Commission could just issue new regulations, but it appears now it is agreed the organic law itself must be changed.
TH

See this thread for the murders...

https://teakdoor.com/thailand-and-asi...t=Prachin+Buri (Local Politicians Killed over Suspected Political Conflicts)

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/crim...an-vote-buying

Killing cheaper than vote buying

Police say politics is again becoming lethal

• Published: 14/03/2011 at 12:00 AM
• Newspaper section: News

Vicious attacks on two local politicians in Prachin Buri and Nonthaburi on the same day last week, leaving one dead, heralds violence in the coming election as political rivals eliminate opponents in a desperate bid to win office, police said.

Family members of Bang Bua Thong municipality mayor Kowit Charoennontasit hold a press conference during his funeral to announce they have offered a reward of one million baht to anybody who gives police clues that lead to the capture of the gunman and the hirer involved in the mayor’s murder on March 2.

Both victims - one was severely injured and the other killed - were known to have been on their political opponents' hit lists.

Police said they believed the attacks were politically motivated, although they have not completely ruled out business conflicts.

<snip>

Chatchai Rianmek, deputy chief of the centre of investigation under the Metropolitan Police Bureau, said killing politicians during the lead-up to an election was a common tactic to eliminate opponents.

"It's an inexpensive investment," Pol Col Chatchai said. "Gunmen are usually hired at between 100,000 and 300,000 baht, depending on how difficult the job is, while vote buying requires at least 5-10 million baht."

He said money played a major part in the assassination of local politicians.

<snip>

(A lot more at the link)

From Twitter:


TAN_Network TAN News Network

Deputy PM Suthep refuses to sign pact with opposition Pheu Thai that whichever party gets most votes in election will set up govt

13 hours ago

From the blog world:

How will the situation in Japan affect the upcoming Thai election? | Asian Correspondent

As we know, an earthquake and then a tsunami hit Japan last Friday causing the death of thousands and the displacement of hundreds of thousands, but this a blog about Thai politics so ultimately the question is, what is the impact on Thailand and particularly the upcoming Thai election? (the election will most likely to be held on June 19, June 26 or July 3 after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced that parliament will be dissolved in the first week of May).


On exports:

The Bangkok Post:

University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) economic and business forecasting centre director Att Pisarnvanich said on Tuesday that Japan’s economic growth for 2011 would likely drop by 0.5 to 1.0 per cent.

Mr Att said he expected the catastrophe would cause Thai exports to Japan to fall by about 7.2 per cent, or about US$735 million, to $1.47 billion, accounting for 0.3 to 0.7 per cent of total Thai exports to the world market.

The impact on Thailand’s industrial exports would be higher, estimated at 8.3 per cent, with agricultural exports looking at a 2.9 per cent, he added.

BP: Japan is Thailand’s second-largest export market last year, taking 10.5 percent of its shipments.


On tourism:

Bloomberg:

“Thailand may feel the short-term impact from delays in exports and imports,” Pornthep Jubandhu, a senior economist at Bangkok-based Siam Commercial Bank Pcl, said in a research note today. “More worrisome is the long-term problem for foreign direct investment. This event may prompt many companies in Japan to focus on the reconstruction of local operations.”
The earthquake will also “significantly affect” the tourism sector by potentially hindering Japanese travelers, he said. Last year, one million Japanese visited Thailand, accounting for about 6 percent of the 15 million in total tourist arrivals, according to the research note.

On assets and baht:

Bloomberg:

Thailand’s baht fell by the most in six weeks as the deteriorating situation at a nuclear power plant in Japan boosted concern the global economic recovery will slow, cutting demand for emerging-market assets.

“The nuclear power plant explosion and concern the situation will worsen are leading to selling of Asian assets and currencies,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist in Tokyo at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “Sentiment, not only for Japan but for the whole of Asia, is weak at this stage.”

The baht weakened 0.6 percent to 30.49 per dollar as of 3:44 p.m. in Bangkok and earlier touched 30.51 earlier, the weakest level since March 4, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares slumped 5.2 percent today.

BP: Of course, a lower currency is helpful for exporters, but it is always a double-edged sword. A weaker baht also means increased oil prices. It is more about short-term economic confidence…


FT on general economic concerns:

· Thai commodities will also be hit. Thailand is the world’s largest producer of rubber and rubber prices have collapsed – Japan is the world’s fourth biggest consumer. Rubber futures on the Tokyo exchange fell 12 per cent on Tuesday, to hit a four-month low.

· Thai factories of Japanese car makers could run out of parts. “Most imported parts are made and delivered on a just-in-time basis, so there is no hefty pile of inventory stock. If production in Japan remains suspended for a long period of time, the Thai plants will likely run out of imported parts in approximately two weeks,” Vallop Tiasiri, president of the Thai Automotive Institute, told Dow Jones Newswires on Monday.

· Japanese investors are delaying their plans. Viboon Kromadit, CEO of Amata Corporation, Thailand’s largest industrial estate developer, told Reuters that medium-to-small Japanese customers have delayed land purchase for one to two months.

BP: Some are very optimistic that the rebuilding could spur on the world economy, but this is in the long-term. Most of above problems are largely short-term problems which will likely not be as bad in 4-6 months, but in the short-term the Thai economy will be affected. The short-term is the problem for the government as a late June/early July election is in the short-term and so this just another factor aside from the rising oil prices, rising food prices, and general inflationary concerns. The timing could not be worse for the government….

Analysis
Thaksin: A Continuing Menace

For a certain someone, there is nothing more important than being reinstalled back to power.

1.) Despite some remarks made by the red shirt leaders in the past, claiming that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is no longer relevant to their movement, the red shirts announced at their latest rally that they are still fighting for Thaksin. So it seems that the fugitive criminal is still using the red shirts for political purposes.

2.) Thaksin appeared at last Saturday’s red shirt rally via video conference, saying that he is currently living in an African country. The ex-premier also said that he has been living in exile for the past five years and would like a chance to return to Thailand to serve the Thai people once again.

Thaksin, whose assets were seized in a number of corruption cases, added that he would like to see Thai people decide their political future for themselves in the next general election. If his Pheu Thai Party is elected, he and his team will come back to Thailand. Thaksin told his supporters, “we must give the Pheu Thai Party a land slide victory in the next election so I can return to Thailand to solve the economic problems. I promise that I will make all Thai people rich within six months.”

Because of this, it is clear that both the red shirt movement and Pheu Thai Party are still subservient to Thaksin. They should have known that Thaksin is ineligible to compete in the election, whether as an MP or prime minister. With many outstanding criminal charges against him, he will certainly be arrested the moment he sets foot in Thailand.
Either way, voting for Pheu Thai does not mean that Thaksin will come back. Unless the Pheu Thai Party decides to exonerate the ex-premier from all his wrongdoings, including the reimbursement of 46 billion baht seized from him.

3.) If the Pheu Thai Party fails to win in the next election, it would be wearisome to see Thaksin supporters come back and continue to preach that Thailand is not a democratic country. Does the “democracy” that red shirts’ envision only have the Pheu Thai in power?

4.) It is also amusing to see Thaksin exchange quips with a young man, who asked the former prime minister on his social network website, “Why are you barking so much?”

Thaksin replied “nothing, I was only giving useful, moral information to those who are willing to listen.”

Who exactly is listening?

Taken from Guan Nam Hai Sai Column, Naewna Newspaper, Page 5, March 14, 2011
Translated and Rewritten by Kongkrai Maksrivorawan
Please note that the views expressed in our "Analysis" segment are translated from local newspaper articles and do not reflect the views of the Thai-ASEAN News Network.

^ Oh, the Thaksin bogeyman again.
A man who had the support of a majority in several democratic elections.
A man who was removed from power by a military coup.
A man who was forced into exile by way of a judicial coup.

Yep, I guess the ruling class oligarchy and its hangers on have plenty to be scarred of in a man like Thaksin. In fact, their fear is so great they are obsessed with him. Probably the only thing they fear more is free and fair democratic elections under a constitution that ensures the democratic rights of all Thai citizens.

As I've said before ,

Thaksin is the best argument against Democracy the Democrats have .

The problem is that taksin is same same, but different.

I think in the short term things can only get worse; how do you choose between the devil and a daemon.

Fierce battles, vote buying expected in upcoming polls

Fierce battles, vote buying expected in upcoming polls

By The Nation
Published on March 17, 2011

The Election Commission expects serious vote-buying moves and cut-throat competition in the run-up to the next general elections.

EC chairman Apichart Sukhagganond said yesterday that rival political parties would be engaged in fierce battles - both on the surface and underground - to win governing power. He also said he expected EC officials and investigators to have a tough time looking into allegations of electoral fraud, saying there would be obstacles and political interference at both the local and national level.EC member Prapun Naigowit expects severe competition among the parties and their candidates, saying the commission was worried there could be a repeat of incidents such as those at the 2009 by-elections, when some candidates' supporters prevented their competitors from campaigning.

"The EC is worried such incidents will take place again in many areas," he said.

Prapun also warned that the EC might disqualify candidates suspected of being behind or supporting such aggressive action, adding that vote buying was expected given the fierce competition.

Somchai Juengprasert, an EC member in charge of investigation, said it was difficult for his team to find concrete evidence proving that votes had been bought because tactics used were too sophisticated, such as making money transfers directly to the bank accounts of voters.

"In the past, the law only punished vote buyers, but now it punishes both the buyer and seller. So, voters don't file complaints once they get the money," he said.

The commissioners were speaking during a training session held in Bangkok yesterday for 622 EC investigators from 11 Central provinces. The participants included police officers, public prosecutors, as well as EC officials.

Somchai said the EC would focus on stopping candidates found involved in electoral fraud from entering the House of Representatives, and in order to achieve this goal, efficient investigators were necessary.

He said that while the 1997 constitution empowered the EC to disqualify winning candidates even after it has endorsed the outcome of the election, the current charter requires the commission to seek a court order first.

Somchai said that in practice the court process strictly relied on witnesses, and in some cases, the witnesses withdrew their testimony against vote-buying candidates.

"The EC strategy is to complete the investigation while it still has the power to disqualify candidates [within seven days after election]," Somchai said. "The investigators can help us effectively implement EC's strategy to keep bad people out of Parliament."

As for the three organic laws that will be amended for the upcoming election, Apichart said yesterday the EC was preparing the final drafts and he expected the amendments to be handed in for parliamentary deliberation tomorrow.

Apichart said it was the prime minister's intention to help push for the organic laws - rewritten to keep in line with recent changes made in the relevant constitutional clauses - to be passed by Parliament before House dissolution. However, he added that if the House is dissolved before the laws are passed, the EC would need to issue temporary orders for holding the next election without violating the amended charter.

Politicians play games as election looms

BURNING ISSUE

Politicians play games as election looms

By Piyanart Srivalo
Piyanart[at]nationgroup.com
Published on March 17, 2011

After Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's announcement last week that he would dissolve the House of Representatives by the first week of May, political parties are reorganising themselves so they are ready to contest the election, expected to take place on June 26 or July 3.

The Constitution requires an MP candidate to have been a member of the party he or she represents for at least 90 days before election day. If the election is held because the House is dissolved, the requirement is reduced to 30 days. Obviously the contest for the most seats will be between the Democrat and Pheu Thai parties. But the movements of the mid-sized and small parties are also something to watch.

The Ruam Chart Pattana Party led by Suwat Liptapanlop has joined hands with the "3Ps" group of Pinij Charusombat, Pairote Suwanchawee and Preecha Laohapongchana from the Puea Pandin Party - and former Pracharaj Party leader Snoh Thienthong has reportedly joined too.

Such manoeuvres are attempts to increase the bargaining power of the parties and groups, efforts to magnify their value.

The 3Ps group barely controls any MPs, while Suwat himself has fewer than five MPs in the Ruam Chart Pattana Party.

The latest example, involving the Chart Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai parties, is another case: de facto leaders Banharn Silapa-archa and Newin Chidchob met for a "friendly lunch".

Sources said this was not just to increase the bargaining power with the Democrat Party, but also to negotiate for ministerial seats before the election.

In the upcoming election, Newin cannot be a selling point for the party. At the same time, accusations of corruption have been levelled against the ministries currently controlled by Bhum Jai Thai ministers.

Chart Thai Party is quite popular, with an image of neutrality and an ability to ally with either the Democrats or Pheu Thai.

More interesting is the new party of Pol Captain Purachai Piemsombun, former deputy prime minister and interior minister under Thaksin Shinawatra: Pracha Santi (Peaceful People).

The party, to be launched on Monday, is seen as a new choice for voters who have not taken a side - yellow, red, Democrat, Pheu Thai - in the country's political conflicts.

Party members include former national police chief Pol General Patcharawat Wongsuwan, former assistant police chief Pol General Pichit Kuandachakupt and the former deputy secretary-general of the Thai Rak Thai party, Panlert Baiyoke - a Pheu Thai financier.

Other members are Pol Lt-General Boonruang Polpanich and Pol Lt-General Boonteung Polpanich and aides such as Noppadol Inna.

Some reports said it was possible General Prawit Wongsuwan would follow his younger brother into this party.

The problem is that some coalition parties disagree with the prime minister's plan to dissolve the House so soon.

Banharn and Newin argued that he should have at least waited until the 2012 budget allocation and the reshuffle in October were out the way.

Abhisit - the sole holder of power - does not seem to care.

One reason could be that the government's popularity is declining amid problems such as alleged corruption in many ministries. The economy is also an issue: the cost of living is rising as prices of consumer products such as cooking palm oil, sugar and rice head upwards.

Other groups also disagreed with the snap election, saying that political conflicts remained in society and that House dissolution would not help. Rumours of a military coup have also spread from time to time.

When so many groups disagree with Abhisit's announcement, it is not surprising that the politicians are playing games in Parliament - on voting in the censure debate and the election-laws amendment, both of which are related to the election.

House Speaker Chai Chidchob, Newin's father, has given some signals. Out of nowhere, he ignored a government-whip resolution and delayed the censure debate, as observers suspected he wanted to give ministers in his party more time to prepare themselves.

There are reports Chai might postpone the no-confidence vote from Saturday to Tuesday.

He has also said the election-laws amendment might not be finished in time for Abhisit to dissolve the House in May.

With one hand the party tries to prepare for an election. With the other, it clings to ministerial seats as long as possible.

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

Somchai Juengprasert, an EC member in charge of investigation, said it was difficult for his team to find concrete evidence proving that votes had been bought because tactics used were too sophisticated, such as making money transfers directly to the bank accounts of voters.

I dispare; So those sneaky people are using bank transfuser and its too sophisticated for mr Juengprasert's brain, makes it hurt. Clearly another fin example of patronage at work. I dispare. Looks like we might be heading for one of the most corrupt elections in recent history, assuming there are any candidates left after they have finished killing each other.

depressed

Originally Posted by StrontiumDog

A woman identified as workers’ activist Jittra Khotchadej, right, and another woman bear signs saying ‘‘Good only at talking’’ as PM Abhisit addresses Thammasat University’s Tha Prachan campus to mark the 100th anniversary of International Women’s Day.
PATTANAPONG HIRUNARD

Jittra Cotchadet, the well-known Thai trade unionist and Red Shirt activist, who recently taunted the Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, during a forum held at Thammasat University to celebrate International Women’s Day, received a death threat this weekend.

Activist who taunted Thai PM Abhisit receives

Originally Posted by Mid

By Andrew Spooner Mar 14, 2011 2:50PM UTC
Jittra Cotchadet, the well-known Thai trade unionist and Red Shirt activist, who recently taunted the Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, during a forum held at Thammasat University to celebrate International Women’s Day, received a death threat this weekend.

Activist who taunted Thai PM Abhisit receives

So Mid, you decide to post this 4 day old pure speculation piece today. I guess because you can’t find anything negative today and pulled this out of your file.

But nevertheless, let’s take a look at what Spooner has put together.

A “well-known Thai trade unionist” runs into a guy she worked with about 2 years ago at a Triumph factory. A guy that was apparently laid off, along with about 2,000 other people when Triumph refused to negotiate with the Unions and they called a strike. That guy, well aware of her role in instigating the strike that caused him to lose his job tells her “you and I should go and talk somewhere else – because this issue will not be easily settled. I will fucking definitely kill you if I see you again!”.

But Spooner, rather then reach the logical conclusion that the guy is still pissed off about her causing him to lose his job concludes that the laid off woman’s underwear worker is now somehow connected to a "security officials lower down the food chain" that might have seen this "as an opportunity to make a name for themselves "

Spooner, just like Mid in posting this 4 days later, is really reaching these days.

TH

really got under your skin haven't I

posted it today because it has taken me this long to find the thread it relates too and posted it because it relates to this thread .

your rebuttal is accepted .