http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/o...-thai-politics

Gen Prayuth and the future of Thai politics
  • Published: 23/09/2010 at 12:00 AM
  • Newspaper section: News
Within a week's time _ on Oct 1, to be precise _ Prayuth Chan-ocha will be officially taking the helm of the Royal Thai Army, as its 37th commander-in-chief.


His time has come: Having always been counted on to stand firmly behind his boss, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, left, will from Oct 1 be taking over from incumbent C-in-C Gen Anupong Paojinda, right.

Considering the situation, military insiders believe General Prayuth's tenure will see an even larger role for the army in politics than during the time when his predecessor Anupong Paojinda sat in the top military seat.

One factor could be the reality that the political situation remains unpredictable, with no clear direction as to how the many conflicts will be resolved.
Another is the almost daily bomb incidents either in Bangkok or the provinces.

With security issues remaining at the forefront, there is no question that military officers will continue to play a prominent role.

News about the mysterious disappearance of weapons, including 39 RPGs and thousands of rounds of M60 bullets from the army's depot in Lop Buri _ the fact that this information was even allowed to get out when the army could easily have suppressed it _ can be interpreted as a signal to the government not to rush to abolish the emergency decree, which is still in effect in Bangkok and a handful of outlying provinces.

The Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) is due to give a recommendation to the prime minister on whether the decree should be lifted and where, if at all.

While soldiers are aware that the missing weapons could very well have been stolen for resale _ weapons security is lax, with some units doing an inventory only once a month _ the army's bigwigs including General Anupong are worried that the RPGs could be used for terrorism.

During the past year, the RPG has been the weapon of choice in quite a few attacks including those on the Ministry of Defence and the military's oil depot.

A source revealed that what was most worrying was that such weapons could be used to attack armoured vehicles or VIP convoys.
The shaky political situation means Gen Prayuth must prepare himself to take a tough line and be decisive.
Those qualities are actually in line with the general's personality. If Gen Anupong's quiet and prudent nature makes him appear like water, then Gen Prayuth is more like fire.

The next army commander-in-chief is known as a no-nonsense man, a serious and hot-tempered person.

His fiery nature was evident during the military operation to contain the red shirts. Gen Prayuth has taken to task many unit commanders seen as vacillating on taking action against the protesters.

Even Kanit Sapitak, a close aide of Gen Prayuth, was not promoted to the "big five" positions in the army's leadership. He only got to be a full general with the title of special adviser because he was viewed as having not been tough enough during the red shirt operation despite the fact that Lt Gen Kanit is known as a dhamma-oriented soldier. According to sources, Gen Prayuth will follow three guidelines when he assumes his new responsibilities. First, soldiers must be professional. Second, they must serve the crown and protect the institution of the monarchy. Third, they must maintain national security.

It is said that Gen Prayuth's ideal soldiers are those who have a "purple heart" which shows their honesty, are "blue-blooded" in the sense of being absolutely loyal to the monarchy, and who stand unequivocally on the side opposite the red shirts.

"Watermelon" soldiers _ green on the outside but red within, meaning those wearing the green uniform but secretly rooting for the red shirts _ or even those maintaining a neutral stance, are not likely to get any big breaks under the leadership of the new commander.

With political prospects remaining shaky and hard to predict, one can only wait to see whether having a fiery new army commander in full control of the military will usher in an era of peace and stability.