Forcing Thaksin into exile and/or stripping him of his tangible Thai assets is just about the worst thing the Establishment could do, and I think they would know that. Forcing Thaksin into exile would make him a martyr, and a martyr with the money and political influence to create considerable political unrest in Thailand for the elite ruling class from afar. The game plan IMHO is to find a balance between undermining Thaksins political charisma through the justice system and allowing him to escape with his freedom and some dignity. The objective is to remove him from the Thai political arena, not just physically, but also the democratic concept of majority rule that he used to gain power. If he goes quietly and accepts the courts rulings(all be it through due process of appeals etc) he will be allowed to keep his freedom and the bulk of his money.

This is just the beginning of the struggle between the old monied Chinese elite ruling class and democracy. When the Monarchy changes leadership the ruling class certainly don't want a perceived hero among the poor masses like Thaksin to fill the void. Its still pretty much a game in play so anything could happen yet.