BANGKOK: When Thailand’s tourism chief revealed a plan to engage Chinese police in joint patrols at major tourist destinations, it was a sign that the Southeast Asian nation was desperate to to draw more visitors from China.
It would reflect the kingdom’s commitment to strengthen security and boost confidence among Chinese tourists, announced Ms Thapanee Kiatphaibool, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) after a meeting with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin last Sunday (Nov 12).
The plan was swiftly scuppered – Mr Srettha and the national police chief denied it the following day after public outcry that it would compromise Thailand’s sovereignty.
Still, it is a clear sign that the Srettha administration knows restoring tourist confidence is pivotal. Perceived safety concerns sparked by a fatal shooting and a blockbuster crime thriller are keeping Chinese holidaymakers away, analysts say.
Slow economic recovery in China and limited flights to Thailand are also compounding matters, they pointed out, making it difficult for the Thai government to hit its tourism target this year.
Thailand hopes to draw 28 million foreign tourists, including 4.4 million from China, by the end of the year.
As of Nov 12, however, only 2.9 million Chinese tourists have visited, according to data from Thailand's Ministry of Tourism and Sports. This means the government needs to attract 1.5 million more Chinese visitors to reach its target.
“As we are entering the high season, there is a possibility but it will be hard,” Mr Paul Pruangkarn from the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) told CNA.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, China was Thailand's biggest source of international visitors, accounting for more than one in four of them. Out of 40 million foreign visitors in 2019, more than 11 million were from China.
'IT’S TOO UNSAFE'
One of the reasons they have been slow to return is the shooting in Bangkok’s luxury Siam Paragon mall last month. A Chinese national was one of two people killed by a 14-year-old gunman, who also injured several people.
The woman had entered Thailand through its tourist visa exemption scheme launched for Chinese passport holders on Sept 25.
Following the shooting, the tourism ministry recorded a contraction of arrivals from China for four consecutive weeks before numbers started to pick up this month.
The immediate hit to Chinese sentiment was reflected in a poll on one of China’s largest social media platforms, Weibo, asking users if the incident would affect their travel plans to Thailand.
Over half of roughly 25,500 respondents, or about 14,400, answered: “Yes, it’s too unsafe.”
Some 3,500 others replied it would not affect their plan as such incidents do not happen often. Around 7,400 users said travelling within China is good enough, with some commenting it would be safest.
“Usually, incidents like these will have an impact that lasts two to three months, where we’ll see a drop in tourist numbers,” economist Ratasak Piriyanont from Kasikorn Securities told CNA.
Thailand’s tourism authority estimates a total income of 2.17 trillion baht (US$61 billion) from 28 million foreign visitors by December, with the visa-free incentive as an important driving force.
It also forecast the scheme would attract about 2.9 million tourists from China within five months. But a month and a half into the programme, data from the tourism ministry showed Chinese arrivals had not even reached 500,000.
Perceived safety concerns are among the key factors that could jeopardise the recovery of the Chinese market, said Mr Pruangkarn from PATA, even as a seamless travel experience can make Thailand a more attractive destination.
A CRIME MOVIE THAT HURTS THAI TOURISM
Besides the gun attack last month, a Chinese blockbuster released in early August has also cast a shadow over Thailand’s tourism outlook, analysts said.
The crime thriller, No More Bets, tells a story of human trafficking victims lured from China to an unnamed country, where they are locked up in a scam mill, tortured and forced to swindle people online.
The movie has been associated with Southeast Asia, where online scam operations and cases of human trafficking have been widely reported.
Chinese viewership for the film exceeded 90 million as of late-September, according to film data platform Beacon, while revenue was at around 3.8 billion yuan (US$525 million).
Following the movie’s release, Thailand saw a drop in Chinese tourists. From 410,311 visitors in July, the figure dipped to 355,146 in August and 284,989 in September.
“Chinese people feel scared. They’re afraid of human trafficking and worried they wouldn’t be safe if they travel here,” said Mr Ratasak.
During his official visit to China last month, Mr Srettha had a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and emphasised his government's commitment to ensure foreign tourists' safety following the Siam Paragon shooting incident.
The two leaders also discussed intensifying efforts to crack down on cross-border crimes such as wire fraud and online gambling.
LIMITED FLIGHTS, DOMESTIC FACTORS
Domestic factors have also hampered the return of Chinese tourists to Thailand.
Analysts say sluggishness in the world’s second-largest economy has reduced people’s spending power, especially those outside big Chinese cities. China's second-quarter gross domestic product growth of 6.3 per cent on-year was below expectations. But its third-quarter growth of 4.9 per cent year-on-year exceeded forecasts.
Meanwhile, limited international flights have affected outbound travel. “The frequency of flights from China to Thailand is still below pre-COVID numbers,” explained Mr Pruangkarn.
Online flight data provider OAG reported that out of China’s top 20 international markets since 2019, Thailand is the least recovered this month.
“Seats are still 57 per cent below 2019, despite the recent visa relaxation for Chinese visitors to Thailand,” it said on its website.
Still, market observers believe the Thai tourism sector could rebound in the near to medium term, given the right conditions and strategies.
“Thailand can boost Chinese arrivals by promoting Thailand as a safe destination that offers a variety of activities for all types of travellers, and by working with the airlines to increase flights from China,” said Mr Pruangkarn.
Crime movie, mall shooting, slowing economy: Why Chinese tourists are staying away from Thailand - CNA