BEIJING —
The possibility of a trade war between the United States and China loomed large over the horizon after the U.S. electoral college confirmed Donald Trump's presidency on Monday. China is expected to take a series of defensive and retaliatory measures to counter any U.S. moves to restrict the role of Chinese goods and currency movements in the American economy, as Trump has promised to do.

"In the event of a trade war with the United States, China’s response would go well beyond tariff increases," said Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist for Capital Economics. "U.S. companies would find their products and operations in China subject to tighter regulation that hampered their capacity to do business there."

"U.S. exports of cars and aircraft would be in the firing line," he said. China might also subject U.S. companies to tighter regulation that hampers their capacity to do business. Beijing may also encourage its exporters by offering tax rebates to overcome any reduction in export demand in the U.S., Williams said.

In informal discussions, Chinese officials say there is a lot of uncertainty about how the new U.S. president will handle relations with China, and preparations are being made to deal with varied scenarios.

In the past, China has responded with trade restrictions on several countries for political reasons. For example, Norway for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to a dissident writer or giving a visa to Tibet's Dalai Lama. Trump's recent tweet questioning the One-China policy concerning Taiwan has already caused a stir in the Chinese Communist Party.

Talking about investments by China's companies in the United States, Trump recently said, "They haven't played by the rules, and I know it is about time they are going to start". Some members of the U.S. Congress have also called for a review of the policies concerning Chinese investments.

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