Thread: Asteroid bound for close encounter with Earth

Bangkok Post : General news

Start making your anti-asteroid amulets now and cash in on the mass hysteria.!!!!.

Thank God. Now I don't have to stop drinking. Has anyone informed DJ Pat?

No need to worry, I'm sure USA will save the planet if any risk of collision appear. I've seen them doing it in a movie.

^I've got the soundtrack

so don't stay in thailand in the year 2029....
(hope anybody understands the joke)

Knowing what happened last time I'm just glad that I'm not a dinosaur.

link is gone now - ya gotta cut and paste anything outta the BP

THIS PAGE CAN NOT BE FOUND

Can you paste the article and be less lazy please.

Here it is

Originally Posted by Google's Cache

SPACE THAI ASTRONOMER'S PREDICTION

Asteroid bound for close encounter with Earth
MANIT SANUBBOON

Thailand will have a close encounter with an asteroid expected to move closer to the Earth than the moon in the next 29 years, according to a prominent astronomer Worawit Tanwutthibundit. The asteroid, named 99942 Apophis, will come into close orbit with the Earth 22 years from now and it will come by again, even closer, seven years after that.

This has sparked fears over the possibility that it could collide with the Earth.

Mr Worawit, an executive member of the Thai Astronomical Society, said the asteroid will come within about 34,400 kilometres of the Earth on April 13, 2029.

He cited a report released by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa).

On that day, the asteroid will make its closest approach to the Earth, about eleven times closer than the moon will pass by _ for the first time in 1,000 years, according to Mr Worawit.

The astronomer said the asteroid's visit on that day will provide a basis for calculations about whether it could hit the Earth in the future.

The same asteroid is predicted to pass by the Earth again on April 13, 2036 and it will be even closer then, Mr Worawit said, citing the Nasa report.

He said the calculations will determine whether the asteroid would be on a collision course with the Earth in 2036 or not. ''If it struck the Earth on that day (April 13, 2036), the possible target would be the northern part of Mexico.

''The impact of the collision would be like the power of 870 megatonnes of TNT going off,'' Mr Worawit said.

Mr Worawit said 99942 Apophis is 320 metres in diameter, and orbits the sun every 323 days.

On April 13, 2029, the asteroid will come into view at dusk at a 42-degree angle in the western sky in the constellation Cancer, Mr Worawit said.

It will be able to be observed in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Thailand.

The 99942 Apophis asteroid was discovered in June 2004. It was then called 2004 MN4.

Here's another article about the same event:

2036: year of the asteroid Written by Kevin Roeten

Nobody paid attention, but in February scientists re-ported that on April 13, 2036 an asteroid is projected to make a very, very close encounter with earth. The good news is that scientists said there’s only a 1 in 10,000 chance that this thing will hit earth. The bad news is that these chances are 29 years from now. It’ll be the closest pass of any foreign object we can remember. That is, of course, if it passes. It’s likely we will all have different priorities in 29 years.
But the discoverers use caveats: “Informal analysis indicates that the accuracy of our knowledge of the asteroid’s trajectory using optical and radar tracking is likely to be inadequate to make a timely deflection decision in the improbable event that one should be needed.” Deciphering, “informal,” “accuracy,” “inadequate” and “deflection” seem to stick out like sore thumbs.

The potential
Even though the odds seem fairly remote, this rendezvous has one of the highest earth-impact potentials ever to be assigned to an object in space. Specifically, the object (2004MN4) is 320 meters in diameter. In 2005, the calculated impact was only 1 in 10,000 (the same probability of the average American driver having an accident on any given day). Without getting technical, those odds will likely increase to 1 in 3,000 over the period of the next year.
In 2012, when the asteroid comes into view again, decisions must be made. If a deflection mission is required to stop an impact, one must consider a last possible date to launch such a mission. Prior to 2028, the sequence must include the deflection decision, mission planning and design, manufacturing, assembly and testing of the aircraft, launch, rendezvous, docking and the deflection operation itself — a sequence of 14 years. This would mean starting this sequence by at least 2014.
The basic scenario, albeit highly improbable, will be driven by 2004MN4’s close encounter to the earth on April 13, 2029. It will cause a major change in the orbit of 2004MN4, and it will make subsequent orbits closer to earth.
The gravitational pull of the earth will force returns very close to earth in 2034, 2035, 2036 and 2037. The year 2036 seems to be the optimum year with the highest probability of impact.

Possible damage
Damage done during a collision is speculative, but computer programs indicate the center of impact would be the Pacific about 1,100 kilometers off the California coast.
Tsunami waves into the whole western United States coast would be experienced. They would be about twice as high as those waves experienced during the recent Indian Ocean tsunami. With an impact point on land (a 30 percent probability), destruction would approximate that of the area of Connecticut.

The costs
A comprehensive analysis of the cost of asteroid impacts of various sizes is directly from NASA’s August 2003 report by its Near-Earth Object Science Definition Team.
An estimate of lives lost from an impact of an object the size of 2004MN4 would be 170,000 people. From work by the EPA, a human “life” (value of a statistical life or VSL) is calculated to be worth about $1.7 million, and the approximate societal cost of land impact would be about $289 billion.
Never fear, but Science Magazine has calculated that Asteroid 1950DA (one kilometer wide) has a 1 in 300 possibility of slamming into the earth on March 16, 2880. It’s interesting that any asteroid impact would have the global warming alarmists screaming for warming to occur to thwart the dust kicked up resulting in a proverbial “nuclear winter.”

First.

Why is it only Thailand that is at risk?

Secondly

What does it matter if only 170,000 people die. By the time we get to 2036 we will be looking at 8-10 billion people on the earth anyway. In addition it's only we west coast of America, Japan and Korea (maybe) that will be effected possibly a few eskimos. Not exactly a great problem. If it does hit the water then there shouldn't be too much dust either.
If it misses and hits the west coast of America then hopefully it will wipe out a few of the ghettos and get rid of those gangsta rapping cnuts in the process.

Originally Posted by mrsquirrel

If it misses and hits the west coast of America then hopefully it will wipe out a few of the ghettos and get rid of those gangsta rapping cnuts in the process.

Almost a green.