Copernicus – December 2022 was the 7th warmest December recorded




And 2022 was the 5th warmest year recorded



Copernicus

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The ocean saw record high temperatures once again in 2022, according to new research published on Tuesday.

“The inexorable climb in ocean temperatures is the inevitable outcome of Earth’s energy imbalance, primarily associated with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases,” said the paper, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

Ocean temperatures, which are measured in zettajoules (ZJ), have typically increased by about 5.3 ZJ or 5.5 ZJ a year over the last six decades, according to NOAA and CAS, respectively. However, between 2021 and 2022, ocean temperatures increased by about 9.1 ZJ or 10.9 ZJ, according to the two data sets.



https://link.springer.com/content/pd...=inline%20link

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The Earth’s ozone layer is slowly recovering, UN report finds

The Earth’s protective ozone layer is on track to recover within four decades, closing an ozone hole that was first noticed in the 1980s, a United Nations-backed panel of experts announced on Monday.

The findings of the scientific assessment, which is published every four years, follow the landmark Montreal Protocol in 1987, which banned the production and consumption of chemicals that eat away at the planet’s ozone layer.

The ozone layer in the upper atmosphere protects the Earth from the sun’s ultraviolet radiation, which is linked to skin cancer, eye cataracts, compromised immune systems and agricultural land damage.

Scientists said the recovery is gradual and will take many years. If current policies remain in place, the ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 levels — before the appearance of the ozone hole — by 2040, the report said, and will return to normal in the Arctic by 2045. Additionally, Antarctica could experience normal levels by 2066.

Scientists and environmental groups have long lauded the global ban of ozone-depleting chemicals as one of the most critical environmental achievements to date, and it could set a precedent for broader regulation of climate-warming emissions.

“Ozone action sets a precedent for climate action,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement. “Our success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done — as a matter of urgency — to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases and so limit temperature increase.”

Scientists said that global emissions of the banned chemical chlorofluorocarbon-11, or CFC-11, which was used as a refrigerant and in insulating foams, have declined since 2018 after increasing unexpectedly for several years. A large portion of the unexpected CFC-11 emissions originated from eastern China, the report said.

The report also found that the ozone-depleting chemical chlorine declined 11.5% in the stratosphere since it peaked in 1993, while bromine declined 14.5% since it peaked in 1999.

Scientists also warned that efforts to artificially cool the Earth by injecting aerosols into the upper atmosphere to reflect sunlight could thin the ozone layer, and cautioned that further research into emerging technologies like geoengineering is necessary.

Researchers with the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations Environment Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the European Commission contributed to the assessment.

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Looking ahead

  • Global warming is about to accelerate




Believe it or not, average global surface temperatures have actually been relatively cool over the last three years — but that's about to change.

Why it matters: Temperatures are expected to jump this year — and 2024 could set a new global record.

The big picture: A rare "triple dip" La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean kept temperatures in check in 2022, with the year ranking fifth-warmest since instrument records began.


  • La Niña events are characterized by cooler-than-average waters in the equatorial tropical Pacific, and tend to put a lid on global temperatures.
  • But 2022 still wound up as the fifth warmest year on record according to NASA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. And if the phenomena dissipates, as forecasts increasingly indicate, global temperatures would likely jump this year and even more so next year.
  • If an El Niño event — characterized by milder than average ocean temperatures — sets in across the tropical Pacific, 2023 could even meet or come close to hitting a record high.


What they're saying: "I forecast about a 15% possibility of a new record in 2023. And if we are in an El Niño by the end of 2023, an almost certainty of a new record in 2024," Gavin Schmidt, who heads NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, told Axios via email.
Zoom in: According to NASA, the record-warmest year occurred in 2020 and 2016, the latter of which occurred when there was a major El Niño underway. This has led some climate change doubters to claim that global warming halted in 2016.




What's next: This year looks milder than the last few years have been. It has a decent chance of at least making it into the top five, if not the top three warmest years, depending on how a transition to an El Niño plays out.


  • Then 2024 has a higher likelihood of setting a new record, scientists told Axios. This is in part because there is a lag in the atmosphere's response to El Niño.


Threat level: The U.K. Met Office is forecasting that global average temperatures in 2023 will be at least 1.2°C (2.16°F) above the pre-industrial average. Keep in mind that the Paris Agreement tries to limit warming to 1.5°C.


  • If warming exceeds this goal, studies show, the odds of potentially devastating climate change consequences will increase, such as greater melting of the polar ice sheets and the loss of tropical coral reefs.
  • Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, said 2023 looks warmer than the past few years, but pinpointing exactly how much is difficult at this point.
  • "Given lags in the surface temperature response a transition to El Niño conditions in the latter half of 2023 would have more of an impact on 2024," he said via email.


https://www.axios.com/2023/01/14/glo...celerates-2023