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  1. #1
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    Bretton Woods II

    This thread is about the possibility of changes in the structuring of the world financial system. Or, perhaps, not changing too many things. The media has recently been using this term, "Bretton Woods II" After the recent financial summit in Europe. This thread is about me (and hopefully many others) getting more information about this concept called Bretton Woods II, or BWII. Some do claim, BWII doesn't really exist, or will not exist. Here is the beginning of some articles.

    A generic intro on the topic from Wiki:
    Bretton Woods II

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "Bretton Woods II" is a term used by media [1] to describe a proposed international summit tasked with overhauling the globe’s financial structure. The name refers to the Bretton Woods system of monetary management which was instituted after World War II.

    The meeting could occur as early as November 2008 in New York City. [2]
    Calls for a new Bretton Woods began surfacing as early as September 26, 2008, when French, and current European Union president, Nicolas Sarkozy, said, "we must rethink the financial system from scratch, as at Bretton Woods.” [3]

    On October 13, 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said world leaders must meet to agree to a new economic system. "We must have a new Bretton Woods, building a new international financial architecture for the years ahead." [4]
    Bretton Woods II - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    One perspective in the article below:

    September 2007 Renegade Economics: The Bretton Woods II Fiction By Chris P. Dialynas and Marshall Auerback

    Executive Summary

    Read the full paper

    The world economy is on the threshold of significant upheaval because of the substantial structural change in the global financial architecture, now popularly known as “Bretton Woods II.” Proponents of this so-called “Bretton Woods II” system argue that there is nothing inherently unsustainable about it. It simply represents the reemergence of a new Bretton Woods regime of global fixed exchange rates, based on structural current account deficits in the U.S. and structural current account surpluses in Asia, with the Asian current account surpluses recycled to provide cheap financing for the U.S. current account deficits. The U.S. gets to consume more than it produces and finance budget deficits cheaply, while strong export growth drives East Asian growth rates and rapid industrialization absorbs the labor surplus created by China’s underemployed rural population. In this view, this new BWII regime will allow the U.S. to finance its large current account deficit at a low cost for a long time; consequently, the United States’ growing external indebtedness poses few immediate concerns. In the paper below, we disagree.


    In contrast to its forebear, BWII is not global in scope; nor does it retain any vestigial linkage to gold, nor any contractual obligations. It is less a monetary “system” and more monetary fiction, articulated to rationalize the dollar’s perverse resilience in the face of America’s increasingly parlous debt build-up and America’s seeming immunity to Third World style debt-trap dynamics. It artificially distorts risk premiums and encourages destabilizing financial practices such as the so-called “yen carry trade.” A misleading snapshot, it ignores the harmful impact of today’s exchange rate anomalies, rather than seeing them for what they are: the roots of a convoluted financial architecture, which have—and continue to create—great imbalances that ultimately threaten global stability and freedom.


    All parties that have embraced the conventions of BWII have had good short-term reasons for doing so. The U.S. has acceded to this arrangement because it has served to boost U.S. asset prices and lower risk spreads, thereby helping to facilitate America’s “guns AND butter” foreign policy. In the absence of its Asian creditors acting as “dollar sub-underwriter of last resort,” it is hard to envisage a chronic debtor country like the U.S. mounting successive wars with little financial strain and an absence of tax increases.


    Similarly, from the Asian perspective, BWII seems to make good short-term sense in that the consequent build-up of foreign exchange reserves has enabled them to avoid a repeat of the economic calamity that afflicted the region ten years ago. Virtually all of the governments in the region have sought to keep their currencies cheap, developing Asia’s total reserves have jumped from $250 billion in 1997 to $2.5 trillion this year. The desire to build up reserves is understandable in light of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and is a direct result of the massive devaluations in the region at that time, but they are now excessive. Furthermore, they do not actually give the Asians the insurance they seek to avoid another disruptive financial crisis. On the contrary, they actually add to the potential for another one. By keeping their currencies artificially low, recycling the resultant current account surplus savings back into dollars, they are driving down risk premiums and subsidizing uneconomic lending. The creditor nations all face capital losses on their reserves as the dollar declines, while running the economy according to an exchange rate target means abandoning control of domestic policy. This is the price they are willing to pay to put otherwise idle resources to work to build investment internally from cash flow as long as current systems persist. But in contrast to 1997, the initiative rests with them, not the Americans.


    Note the Adobe above for the entire:

    Link & Entire: PIMCO - Renegade Economics: The Bretton Woods 2 Fiction - Executive Summary- by Chris Dialynas and Marshall Auerback
    ............

  2. #2
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    This article was written in 2005. It provides a general breakdown of what the concept of BWII is, or may be.

    May 24, 2005
    From: http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp
    We don’t really have a problem of excessive “US-centric” growth, if the “Bretton Woods II” advocates are to be believed. You haven’t heard of “Bretton Woods II”? It is the latest hypothesis used to rationalise today’s perverse global financial architecture, the main proponents being three leading economists: David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Garber, and Michael Dooley, who have all written extensively on the subject. Dooley forcefully advanced the thesis again at a PIMCO Secular Forum held a few weeks ago.

    The Bretton Woods II hypothesis posits the notion that the world is effectively back to a regime of global fixed exchange rates pegged to the US dollar like the original Bretton Woods regime that lasted from 1945 to 1973. Unlike the formal regime that existed over that time frame, this “new and improved” version is more or less bi-regional. It bypasses Europe altogether and largely consists of an informal arrangement between the U.S. and the nations of the Asian savings bloc. Under the new “system,” the Bretton Woods gold-dollar fixed exchange rate has in essence been replaced by an arrangement whereby the nations of emerging Asia either peg (China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia), or closely manage their respective currencies against the greenback. This new regime is based on structural current account deficits in the U.S. and structural current account surpluses in Asia; Asian current account surpluses are recycled to provide cheap financing for the US current account deficits, although under a classic monetary system it is doubtful that anything like the imbalances currently in existence would be allowed to develop. At the apex of this new Bretton Woods, the US Federal Reserve produces money supply that goes through the banking system to consumers, who then consume imported goods via the "fixed" exchange rate, a large portion of which are produced in Asia. Asia takes the money generated by these exported goods, and then purchases U.S. bonds—in other words, lends it back to the U.S.—and then the cycle repeats itself over and over again.
    From where I found this: Scoop: "Bretton Woods II" - Monetary System or Excuse

  3. #3
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    A return to a Good as Gold system where currency must be backed a states bullion reserves would make a more clear and less corruption prone system.

  4. #4
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    ^ The prob is keeping track of the gold. Heck, they have no idea how much is in Ft. Knox. Also, it would hinder flexibility. Beter on the BW upgrade.

  5. #5
    bkkandrew
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    ^I would be funny if it turned out that Ft Knox was as bare as Mrs Hubbards, cupboard, wouldn't it...

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    I am in Jail

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    ^ Quite possible. Nobody's gone in there and counted it for years.

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    I thought I heard somewhere that all the gold was stolen by Auric Goldfinger back in the '60s?

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    not sure what they want to accomplish with that meeting, Sarko and friends will take the opportunity to implement some "international tax" on short term capital flows to stop fluctuations,

    even though a good idea on paper, it will be a real financial disaster, much worse than the subprime mess and the bailout of banks,

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    ^ bladdy socialists at it again.

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    ^ GW Bush will be so desperate that he will probably sign this into law, a real socialist that GW Bush, always knew he will come back to his root eventually

  11. #11
    I don't know barbaro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mad_dog View Post
    A return to a Good as Gold system where currency must be backed a states bullion reserves would make a more clear and less corruption prone system.
    Many analysts say there are too many US dollars in circulation (and in foreign currency reserves) to be backed by Gold.

    Going back to the Gold Standard (or backing USD with gold) cannot happen as it will stifle fractional banking.

    So say the experts.

  12. #12
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    I am opposed to any form of a Bretton Woods II. And generally speaking I am opposed to additional regulation. I do think that (in the US) they went to far in removing regulation and some of what has been removed over the past 20 years should be brought back - but not all of it.

    But then again I am opposed to the bail-out package. The banks took the risks and they should suffer for it.
    "Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it, you'd have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, it takes religion" - Steven Weinberg

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