Thread: Baht Future

I am going short predicting CHF 40.1 US$32.6 and Euro 37.5 by Songkran .

This is uniquely flexible prediction due to huge global uncertainites beyond control of very well managed and conservative BoT that cannot predict Gold, War, Trump's next move.

However recent restrictions on gold traders show the BoT willing to act.

The next looming factor is will there be a relatively stable regime after Feb 8 polls?

A disputed result or a shaky coalition or coup would of course radically change forecasts.

A strong government of any hue with a solid mandate would reassure markets as debts mount as elesewhere.

A high baht hits tourism, expats and export traders.

More here
https://www.icis.com/explore/resourc...orts%20cheaper.

As of 7 January 2026, the baht was trading at Bt31.40 to the US dollar, compared with Bt34.73 on the same date in 2025, according to the BoT.
A strong currency makes exports less competitive, while making imports cheaper.
In response to the strengthening baht, the BoT is “monitoring foreign exchange transactions” including both gold- and non gold-related ones and considering measures against transactions that significantly pressure the baht.
While Thailand’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 57.4 in December, from 56.8 in November, well above the expansionary threshold of 50, there was a “persistent weakness in external sales”, S&P Global said.
The country’s headline inflation remains low mainly from supply-side factors, while demand-side inflation pressure is limited.
Headline inflation is projected at minus 0.1% in 2025, with expectations for the number to rise to target levels of 1.0% in 2027.
To stimulate consumption, a further 25-point cut in interest rates is expected at the next central bank monetary policy meeting in February, to bring the rate to 1.00% after a similar move in December last year.

A mystery that I continue to struggle to understand. That and some of the loons on this forum.

I was told by a banker once that the Thai's are protecting the baht from external influence. The type of influence which contributed to the crash in 97.

With a strong western economy, the baht should be mid 50's. It isn't just the baht and the BOT's attempts at protecting the baht, it's about a poor western economy, one that has never really recovered from the 08 crash.

But yeah, I'm definitely a loon so pay no attention to me ha. ha. ha.