Thread: 2022 US Mid-term elections

The record is 133 ballots

The past two days of ballot chaos, where multiple votes to choose the speaker have failed to produce a winner, will be repeated until one person can muster a majority. But don't assume this just represents the messy familiarity of democracy. The fight, the division and the bitterness is internal; within one party - a fractured and dysfunctional Republican Party.

What's the background?

In November's midterm elections, President Joe Biden's Democratic Party retained control of the Senate but lost control of the House of Representatives. The majority and the power in the House was handed to the Republicans. Democratic speaker Nancy Pelosi stepped down and made way for a Republican replacement. The assumption was that it would be Kevin McCarthy.

But the midterm "red wave" - a landslide to the Republican Party because of the perceived weakness of Mr Biden's Democrats didn't play out. Defying conventional wisdom on how a serving president's party performs in the midterms, the Democrats retained the Senate and only lost the House by a narrow margin.

So why are the Republicans struggling to choose a leader?

Two reasons: first because the party is splintered into different factions - ranging from those far to the right to the more centrist caucus.

And second, because they only have a narrow majority making the arithmetic tricky for Kevin McCarthy who needs 218 votes from a Republican total of 222 seats.

Why does it matter?

In short, without a speaker, the House can't start the business of governing and legislation. It must continue to hold speaker ballots until a candidate wins. Both camps - the OK (Only Kevin) camp and the Never Kevin camp seem as entrenched as each other.

Looking to history again - back in 1856, just before the US Civil War, it took two months and 133 ballots to find a speaker.

What's the issue with Kevin McCarthy?

Mr McCarthy seemed confident he would muster the votes, yet his battle has got harder with the opposition to him growing. There were originally five die-hard "never Kevin" Republicans. But in Tuesday's votes, the number grew to 14, then 19 and then 20.

In a farcical situation, a number of Republicans voted for their colleague Jim Jordan, who then voted for Mr McCarthy and stated he didn't want the speakership.

Perhaps even more farcical, and deeply worrying for the Republican Party, the Democratic Party representative Hakeem Jeffries received more votes than Mr McCarthy in the first three votes.

"We may have a battle on the floor," Kevin McCarthy told reporters after a humiliating day. "But the battle is for the conference and the country, and that's fine with me."

In Wednesday's fourth and fifth ballots, 20 Republicans switched their support to Byron Donalds, a 44-year-old lawmaker from Florida who had originally backed Mr McCarthy, leaving the vote deadlocked once again.

The opposition to Mr McCarthy is led by a faction of the party - the House Freedom Caucus, a hard-right group that want changes to the chamber rules.

The Never Kevin grouping have put forward various alternative candidates including Arizonan Andy Biggs, nominated by far-right lawmaker Paul Gosar.

Is there a Trump factor?

Yes - always. Overnight, speaking to NBC News, the former president said he had not made a decision on supporting Mr McCarthy. But by morning he appeared to have come to a firmer view, telling followers of his Truth Social site that he was backing him.

Mr Trump has been blamed for the lacklustre Republican Party performance in the midterms and for seeding division and splinters within the Republican Party itself.

A record-breaking new congress?

Yes. Beyond the history being made in the speaker election process, the 118th Congress is record-breaking in a number of ways.

It includes a record number of women - 149 - representing 28% of the legislative body. Diversity in the two chambers has improved with 58 women of colour serving. Within the House alone there will be a record number of Latina and Black women.

The chambers are also getting younger. Only 5% of congress members are under the age of 40 but nearly 21% of the newcomers are younger than 40. The House also now has its first-ever Generation Z member, Democrat Maxwell Frost of Florida, who is 25 years old.

What's on the agenda once a speaker is found?

Plenty. The Republicans will gain control of several House Committees prompting new investigations which could rock the political landscape.

Investigations will commence on the financial dealings of President Biden's son Hunter, the government's handling of migration on the southern border, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Afghan withdrawal.

Names to watch: James Comer of Kentucky and Jim Jordan of Ohio are likely to be the biggest players when it comes to investigations. Mr Comer is set to chair the House Oversight Committee and Mr Jordan the House Judiciary Committee.

Beyond domestic politics, watch for a real bipartisan focus on China. A new committee is set to focus on competition with China.

"The Chinese Communist Party is the greatest geopolitical threat of our lifetime." Mr McCarthy said recently in a statement.

Why the Republicans are struggling to pick a new House speaker | US News | Sky News

• Kari Lake files appeals in election lawsuit after Hobbs was sworn in as Arizona Governor

Former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has filed two appeals related to her election lawsuit.

One of the appeals is filed with the Appeals Court for her lawsuit claiming fraud, and that technical problems on Election Day were intentional. In December 2022, a judge ruled against Lake, saying there was no evidence of widespread misconduct.

Lake also filed a motion to transfer the appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court, asking to essentially skip a step with the Appeals Court.

Election lawyer speaks out

It is unclear if the Arizona Supreme Court will take up the appeal.

Meanwhile, election law attorney Tom Ryan says he believes Arizona's high court will toss the lawsuit.

"Election contests are supposed to be done and completed within 10 days of the canvass," said Ryan. "They were given all the opportunity to have a trial. Judge [Peter] Thompson allowed in a lot of evidence most judges would not allow in, but he wanted to do it so he could show he gave due consideration and weighed the evidence."

Katie Hobbs, who defeated lake in the November election, was sworn in as Arizona's governor on Jan. 2.

Going for the 11th round to elect a speaker. A new candidate nominated.
Donald Trump!

McCarthy appears to suffer defeat in 11th ballot for House speaker



Maybe a 12th vote this evening

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Maybe a 12th vote this evening

Could be. Dems have said they are willing to stay up all night and all day to keep things continueing until a speaker is elected.

Appears Republicans feel the same.

I dunno much about the machinations of the US Reps but from what I understand McCarthy is being held hostage to the the right wing loon end of the Republicans - though he also the c*nt responsible for the mid-term debacle (according to some).

Why can't the Dems create a cunning plan to support a moderate republican for speaker? Can they? Or the convention that the majority party chooses the speaker is set in stone?

Which is madness - I can only only imagine the demands the 20 holdouts are making for their votes. The system sucks as it encourages the extreme ends to create blocs seeking the balance of power rather than compromising to find a more balanced (and supported) centre.
Rather than encouraging the periphery towards the centre, it forces the centre towards the extreme (left or right).

Republicans voted to adjourn until noon tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Ukan Kizmiaz

I can only only imagine the demands the 20 holdouts are making for their votes. The system sucks as it encourages the extreme ends to create blocs seeking the balance of power rather than compromising to find a more balanced (and supported) centre.

Most would agree and is what is happening now.

Originally Posted by S Landreth

Republicans voted to adjourn until noon tomorrow.



Most would agree and is what is happening now.

Isn't that what happens in a parliamentary system also ,where different parties make deals to form governing coalitions?

^Everyone should be heard. But pushing silly extremes; that even they know, the majority doesn’t agreed with is just a waste of time.

example

As Norton points out.....

Originally Posted by Norton

When the majority in the House can't even get a leader elected we can be sure when they finally do getting even the simplest piece of legislation will become near impossible to pass.

Originally Posted by Ukan Kizmiaz

Why can't the Dems create a cunning plan to support a moderate republican for speaker? Can they? Or the convention that the majority party chooses the speaker is set in stone?

They could but they would have to get 5 or 6 Republicans to vote with them. Doubt there are 5 or 6 willing to piss off 90% of the party or willing to face the ire of their constituancy.

^ yes of course - but it sounds like there could be an opportunity to create a bridge thru the centre - and make the extremes at either end irrelevant. May be good for the electorate too. It would need some vision etc - so probably a bridge too far for politicians...

Anyway back to vote number ??? At what point do they try a different approach...?
At vote# 1000 perhaps teh Dems should vote for McCarthy to get the place functioning (?) - save the day etc etc (and fuck the ultra cons).

And then the real games can begin...

Originally Posted by Norton

They could but they would have to get 5 or 6 Republicans to vote with them. Doubt there are 5 or 6 willing to piss off 90% of the party or willing to face the ire of their constituancy.

I don't think the Dems need to do anything but sit back and break out some popcorn.

The Republicans are looking more ridiculous by the day.

^ Yup. The dems are going to let them twist in the wind as long as they can.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

The Republicans are looking more ridiculous by the day.

I agree.
With the Marjorie Greenes, the Matt Gaetzes , Santos ,etc, (fill in your favorite clown)
The republican party is looking like a freak show.

^ Question:
I just heard that McCarthy lost his 11th vote. So what happens? do they keep voting until he wins? or someone else gets more votes?
What if no one gets the nessacery votes, do the republicand go on until the next term election without a leader?

^
It will go on until Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert have a punch up. When you elect hillbillies, you get hillbilly politics.

Originally Posted by harrybarracuda

I don't think the Dems need to do anything but sit back and break out some popcorn.

The Republicans are looking more ridiculous by the day.

Agree. They could but won't help a bit. Much better to let the Republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as the nation just how fucked up they are. Looking good for Dems in 2024.

Originally Posted by Takeovers

I watched a few CNN videos. There are some weird voting rules. As a rule to elect a speaker a majority of 50%+1 vote is required which McCarthy can not get because there are ~20 more extreme members in the GOP. But there is one exception. Members can vote "present" instead of for a candidate. With those votes an absolute majority is no longer necessary. It was speculated, a number of McCarthy supporters vote "present".

This would force the extreme GOP group to vote McCarthy or the Democrat candidate gets elected. They called it the nuclear option. It would cause a lot of bad blood within the GOP.

My speculation, the group of ~20 are so extreme in their views they may chose to take down McCarthy and have a Democrat win. Once he has won the function of speaker it is very hard to remove him, even with a 50%+1 majority. The GOP would probably have to live with a Democrat speaker for the next 2 years.

This is getting strangerer and strangerer

Whatever you think, it's great entertainment



https://twitter.com/i/status/1610821385034629122